The growing conflicts in and about oil exporting regions and speculations about volatile oil prices during the last decade have renewed the public interest in predictions for the near future oil production and consumption. Unfortunately, studies from only 10 years ago, which tried to forecast the oil production during …
The study examines how global economic policy uncertainty affects crude oil futures volatility.
problem Predicting crude oil futures volatility using global economic policy uncertainty.
method Established single-factor and two-factor models under the GARCH-MIDAS framework, tested with rolling-window and fixed-span specifications.
result GEPU changes have stronger predictive power than the GEPU index for crude oil futures volatility.
Neural networks predict crude oil prices with promising accuracy.
problem Accurately predicting crude oil prices for economic and financial planning.
method Multivariate analysis using neural networks.
result Simple neural network models perform similarly to ARIMA models in forecasting crude oil prices.
This paper uses SampEn to measure and predict oil price volatility.
problem Measuring and predicting volatility in international oil prices.
method Sample Entropy (SampEn) compared with standard deviation; machine learning algorithms used.
result SampEn effectively predicts traditional volatility measures, especially during financial crises.
The paper uses ML to predict oil rate post-HF, comparing it to engineers' predictions.
problem Predicting oil rate post-hydraulic fracturing.
method Data-driven model using ML techniques on fracturing job data.
result ML predictions outperform engineers' predictions.
We present a new Monte-Carlo methodology to forecast the crude oil production of Norway and the U.K. based on a two-step process, (i) the nonlinear extrapolation of the current/past performances of individual oil fields and (ii) a stochastic model of the frequency of future oil field discoveries. Compared with the stan…
Study shows adding correlated features doesn't improve LSTM model interpretability for oil stocks.
problem Improving interpretability of LSTM models for predicting oil company stocks.
method Designed and trained Standard LSTM networks using various correlated datasets.
result Adding correlated features does not enhance LSTM model interpretability.
Paper uses neural networks to analyze oil price impact on Iranian stock and industry indices.
problem Impact of oil price volatility on Tehran stock and industry indices.
method Feed-forward neural networks analysis of two periods: sanctions and post-sanctions.
result Neural networks predict stock and industry indices well, showing significant oil price volatility impact.
Machine learning and IoT improve steam flood oil production.
problem Optimizing oil production from heavy-oil wells using steam floods.
method Cutting-edge machine learning techniques applied to time-series IoT data.
result 3% improvement in oil production with optimized steam allocation.
Wavelet analysis reveals financialization effects on oil-food price correlation.
problem Investigating the correlation between oil and food prices and their determinants.
method Wavelet analysis and energy-based measures to differentiate high and low frequency movements.
result Significant local correlation between food and oil is due to financialization and emerging economies' demand.
Methodology that recently lead us to predict to an amazing accuracy the date (July 11, 2008) of reverse of the oil price up trend is briefly summarized and some further aspects of the related oil price dynamics elaborated. This methodology is based on the concept of discrete scale invariance whose finance-prediction-or…
Improved crude oil price forecasting using multi-dimensional LLM sentiment signals.
problem Challenges in predicting crude oil prices due to unstructured news.
method Extracted five sentiment dimensions from GPT-4o, Llama 3.2-3b, and FinBERT models on energy-sector news articles.
result Combining GPT-4o and FinBERT yields the best predictive performance for weekly WTI crude oil futures returns.
Research uses PGMs to forecast crude oil prices by condensing data into a graphical model.
problem Forecasting the price of crude oil due to its economic significance and numerous influencing factors.
method Condensing various crude oil factors into a graphical model using probabilistic graphical models (PGMs). Experimented with Python libraries to construct models.
result Developed a probabilistic framework for accurate crude oil price forecasting.
QBVAR improves oil price forecasting across quantiles, especially for downside risk.
problem Forecasting oil prices across different quantiles for better risk assessment.
method Quantile Bayesian Vector Autoregression (QBVAR) model.
result QBVAR improves median forecasts by 2-5% and left-tail forecast improvements of 10-25% during crisis episodes.
Hidden Markov model predicts profitable statistical arbitrage in Shanghai crude oil futures.
problem Statistical arbitrage opportunities in international crude oil futures markets.
method Hidden Markov model for cointegration spread, mean-reverting regime-switching process.
result Statistical arbitrage strategies involving Shanghai crude oil futures are profitable.
Bayesian analysis of geological shapes for improved oil prediction.
problem Simplistic classifications of geological shapes hinder accurate oil prediction.
method Deriving integrated likelihood for cross-sectional shapes given class parameters using Bayesian statistics.
result First coherent statistical analysis of geological shapes.
A new method predicts oil movement in reservoirs using deep learning.
problem Assessing dynamics of multiphase fluid flow in oil reservoirs.
method Metamodel based on Variational Autoencoder and Recurrent Neural Network.
result The Metamodel accurately predicts flow rates, pressure, and fluid saturations.
Study uses multiple online media to predict crude oil prices.
problem Forecasting crude oil prices using online media.
method Semantic analysis and ARIMAX models on Twitter, Google Trends, Wikipedia, and GDELT.
result Combined analysis from four platforms improves price prediction.
This paper presents the development of a hybrid learning system based on Support Vector Machines (SVM), Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and domain knowledge to solve prediction problem. The proposed two-stage Domain Knowledge based Fuzzy Information System (DKFIS) improves the prediction accuracy attained…
Study improves exchange rate forecasting using machine learning and interpretable methods.
problem Complexity and ambiguity in financial and economic systems make precise exchange rate predictions difficult.
method Developed a fundamental-based model using machine learning and interpretability methods.
result Crude oil is the leading factor determining exchange rate dynamics, with significant events affecting its contribution.
Bayesian network method analyzes oil and gas reservoir parameters.
problem Data analysis and causal inference in oil and gas reservoirs.
method Mixed learning of Bayesian networks with algorithm MixLearn@BN.
result Significant improvement in missing values prediction and anomaly detection.
Model predicts methane emissions from oil sands tailing ponds, suggesting significant environmental impact.
problem Estimating methane emissions from inactive oil sands tailing ponds.
method Physics constrained machine learning model using real-time weather data and laboratory experiments.
result Active oil sands tailing ponds emit between 950 to 1500 tonnes of methane per year, equivalent to 6000 gasoline vehicles.
This article investigates the correlation structure of the global crude oil market using the daily returns of 71 oil price time series across the world from 1992 to 2012. We identify from the correlation matrix six clusters of time series exhibiting evident geographical traits, which supports Weiner's (1991) regionaliz…
The process of exploring and exploiting Oil and Gas (O&G) generates a lot of data that can bring more efficiency to the industry. The opportunities for using data mining techniques in the "digital oil-field" remain largely unexplored or uncharted. With the high rate of data expansion, companies are scrambling to develo…
Exploration of hydrocarbon resources is a highly complicated and expensive process where various geological, geochemical and geophysical factors are developed then combined together. It is highly significant how to design the seismic data acquisition survey and locate the exploratory wells since incorrect or imprecise …
Research uses SWT and BDLSTM to forecast stock and oil prices amid COVID-19.
problem Impact of COVID-19 on stock and oil prices forecasting.
method Integrates Stationary Wavelet Transform and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory networks.
result BDLSTM+WT-ADA achieved satisfactory results in Crude Oil price forecasting.
In April 2009, we introduced a model representing the evolution of motor fuel price (a subcategory of the consumer price index of transportation) relative to the overall CPI as a linear function of time. Under our framework, all price deviations from the linear trend are transient and the price must promptly return to …
Oil prices affect Russian banks' stability, with negative impacts from decreases.
problem The impact of international oil prices on Russian public banks' financial stability.
method Data from 17 Russian public banks (2008-2016), Pool Mean Group (PMG) estimator.
result An increase in international oil prices and price to book value ratio positively affects Russian public banks' stability in the long run, while negative shocks have the opposite effect.
Oil economy modeled using phase plots and Benard convection analogy.
problem Understanding the dynamics of world oil production, price, and EROEI.
method Phase plot of oil economy data, analogy with Benard convection, interpretation and forecast methods.
result Proposed methods for interpreting and forecasting oil economy behavior.
Coronavirus impacts oil prices through volatility and direct effects.
problem Impact of coronavirus on oil prices and volatility.
method ARDL estimation controlling for financial volatility and US economic policy uncertainty.
result COVID-19 daily infections have a negative long-term impact on oil prices.
Bayesian neural networks improve uncertainty in data-driven VFMs for oil and gas wells.
problem Uncertainty and robustness in data-driven VFMs for oil and gas wells.
method Bayesian neural networks with variational inference for uncertainty quantification.
result Variational inference provides more robust predictions on future data.
Study examines oil and US stock market interactions during coronavirus crisis.
problem Understanding the impact of coronavirus on oil and stock markets.
method Wavelet analysis of daily data from February 18, 2020 to August 15, 2020.
result Oil prices lead US stock prices at 3-5-day cycles during the first and second parts of March and April 2020.
This paper examines the short-run relationships between oil prices and GCC stock markets. Since GCC countries are major world energy market players, their stock markets may be susceptible to oil price shocks. To account for the fact that stock markets may respond nonlinearly to oil price shocks, we have examined both l…
Study examines impact of oil and gold prices on Tehran Stock Exchange.
problem Impact of oil and gold prices on Tehran Stock Exchange.
method ARIMA-Copula model, cross-validation, Clayton copula.
result TSE is indirectly influenced by gold price through other factors such as oil; TSE is not independent of oil price volatility.
Study uses APT and QR to identify risk factors affecting crude oil returns.
problem Determining the risk factors impacting crude oil returns.
method Employed Arbitrage Pricing Theory and Quantile Regression.
result Identified key risk factors: industrial production, inflation, energy prices, yield curve shape, and economic policy uncertainty.
This study analyzes global oil trade networks to assess their efficiency and robustness.
problem Dynamic monitoring and warning of international trade risks in global oil trade.
method Constructing unweighted and weighted global oil trade networks (OTNs) using UN Comtrade data from 1988 to 2017, and applying complex network theories.
result Efficiency of oil flows increases with complexity of OTNs, and weighted efficiency indicators highlight major events.
Study reveals dynamic linkage between Peanut and Soybean Oil futures markets.
problem Exploring interdependence between Peanut and other agricultural commodities in Chinese futures market.
method Constructed multivariate linear regression models and used VAR and DCC-EGARCH models for dynamic relationships. Applied MLP, CNN, and LSTM neural networks for price prediction.
result Significant dynamic linkage between Peanut and Soybean Oil futures markets through DCC-EGARCH, limited influence from other futures markets through VAR model.
Graph neural network predicts protonation energies of oxygen atoms in bio-oil molecules.
problem Predicting protonation energies of oxygen atoms in bio-oil molecules for chemical upgrading.
method Site-specific graph neural network approach using iterative local nonlinear embedding.
result Effective prediction of protonation energies of individual oxygen atoms in bio-oil molecules.
Deep learning speeds up oil reservoir simulations by 2000x.
problem Accelerating oil reservoir simulations using physics-based methods.
method Developed a neural network proxy model for oil reservoirs.
result Achieved a speedup of more than 2000X with an average sequence error of 10%.
The paper analyzes gold, oil, and bitcoin futures volatility and basis.
problem Understanding the volatility and basis of gold, oil, and bitcoin futures.
method Contract-by-contract analysis of spot and futures prices, trading volume, and open interest data.
result Trading volume positively affects volatility in all three assets, while open interest has a possible negative effect.
One major hurdle in the road toward a low carbon economy is the present entanglement of developed economies with oil. This tight relationship is mirrored in the correlation between most of economic indicators with oil price. This paper addresses the role of oil compared to the other three main energy commodities -coal,…
Study shows how oil and forex markets are connected, with monetary policy affecting forex volatility.
problem Understanding connectedness between oil and forex markets.
method High-frequency intra-day data, variance decompositions, realized semivariances.
result Adding oil to a forex portfolio decreases total connectedness, but asymmetries and frequency connectedness are relatively small.
Study on oil price's multifractal cross-correlations with other financial markets.
problem Analyzing statistical and multiscaling characteristics of oil prices and their cross-correlations with other financial instruments.
method Multifractal analysis, detrended cross-correlation coefficient, multifractal cross-correlation analysis.
result Multifractal cross-correlations between oil prices and other financial markets, especially with oil-producing countries' currencies.
Study examines value relevance of oil and gas reserve disclosures in London Stock Exchange.
problem Uncertainty in oil and gas reserves poses accounting challenges for investors.
method Empirical analysis using archival data and multifactor framework.
result Changes in reserves and their components are associated with share returns, but insignificantly due to oil price and longitudinal effects. Quality of disclosures positively impacts share returns.
Study shows oil prices but not COVID-19 cases affect US economic policy uncertainty.
problem Effect of COVID-19 and crude oil prices on US economic policy uncertainty.
method Used ARDL model with daily data from January 21-March 13, 2020.
result Crude oil price dynamics increase US economic policy uncertainty, while COVID-19 cases have mixed effects.
The paper presents a method for detecting jump sizes in crude oil prices.
problem Detecting jump sizes in crude oil price data.
method Sequential hypothesis testing using infinitesimal generators and super-solutions.
result The method improves the Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard model for derivative and commodity market analysis.
Oil markets profoundly influence world economies through determination of prices of energy and transports. Using novel methodology devised in frequency domain, we study the information transmission mechanisms in oil-based commodity markets. Taking crude oil as a supply-side benchmark and heating oil and gasoline as dem…
Investment risk on a regulated market is influenced by gold prices and oil trading.
problem Systematic risk of loss in investment portfolios under sanctions.
method Statistical analysis of tail dependence between oil, gold, and Tehran Stock Exchange Index.
result Tail dependence should be considered for systematic risk, and active bartering of oil can prevent market collapse.