A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
We present the first framework for Gaussian-process-modulated Poisson processes when the temporal data appear in the form of panel counts. Panel count data frequently arise when experimental subjects are observed only at discrete time points and only the numbers of occurrences of the events between subsequent observati…
Given a stationary point process, an intensity burst is defined as a short time period during which the number of counts is larger than the typical count rate. It might signal a local non-stationarity or the presence of an external perturbation to the system. In this paper we propose a novel procedure for the detection…
Exploratory analysis over network data is often limited by the ability to efficiently calculate graph statistics, which can provide a model-free understanding of the macroscopic properties of a network. We introduce a framework for estimating the graphlet count---the number of occurrences of a small subgraph motif (e.g…
Unified framework for comparing clusterings from information-theoretic and pair-counting perspectives.
problem Divergent evaluations of unsupervised models due to different clustering similarity measures.
method Developed an analytical framework that unifies pair-counting and information-theoretic clustering similarity measures.
result Unified framework clarifies when and why the two regimes diverge and provides a principled basis for selecting and interpreting clustering similarity measures.
Continuous vector representations of words and objects appear to carry surprisingly rich semantic content. In this paper, we advance both the conceptual and theoretical understanding of word embeddings in three ways. First, we ground embeddings in semantic spaces studied in cognitive-psychometric literature and introdu…
The study analyzes a model for aggregate losses with dependent and overdispersed inter-losses times.
problem Analyzing aggregate loss models with dependent and overdispersed inter-losses times.
method The study uses a two-state Markovian arrival process (MAP2) and a Markov renewal process to model the inter-losses times. Severities are modeled using a heavy-tailed, double-Pareto Lognormal distribution. The model is estimated via direct maximization of the likelihood function.
result The model with dependence and overdispersion in inter-losses times leads to higher capital charges compared to a Poisson process.
Survival analysis is a hotspot in statistical research for modeling time-to-event information with data censorship handling, which has been widely used in many applications such as clinical research, information system and other fields with survivorship bias. Many works have been proposed for survival analysis ranging …
Conventional text classification models make a bag-of-words assumption reducing text into word occurrence counts per document. Recent algorithms such as word2vec are capable of learning semantic meaning and similarity between words in an entirely unsupervised manner using a contextual window and doing so much faster th…
We propose an algorithm for the non-negative factorization of an occurrence tensor built from heterogeneous networks. We use l0 norm to model sparse errors over discrete values (occurrences), and use decomposed factors to model the embedded groups of nodes. An efficient splitting method is developed to optimize the non…
In this work, we consider hypothesis testing and anomaly detection on datasets where each observation is a weighted network. Examples of such data include brain connectivity networks from fMRI flow data, or word co-occurrence counts for populations of individuals. Current approaches to hypothesis testing for weighted n…
Matrix factorization is a simple and effective solution to the recommendation problem. It has been extensively employed in the industry and has attracted much attention from the academia. However, it is unclear what the low-dimensional matrices represent. We show that matrix factorization can actually be seen as simult…
Representing a word by its co-occurrences with other words in context is an effective way to capture the meaning of the word. However, the theory behind remains a challenge. In this work, taking the example of a word classification task, we give a theoretical analysis of the approaches that represent a word X by a func…
This paper considers the problem of predicting the number of events that have occurred in the past, but which are not yet observed due to a delay. Such delayed events are relevant in predicting the future cost of warranties, pricing maintenance contracts, determining the number of unreported claims in insurance and in …
In lexicon-based classification, documents are assigned labels by comparing the number of words that appear from two opposed lexicons, such as positive and negative sentiment. Creating such words lists is often easier than labeling instances, and they can be debugged by non-experts if classification performance is unsa…
We prove that if N≥2 and α:FN→π1(Γ) is a marking on FN, then for any integer r≥2 and any FN-invariant collection of non-negative integral "weights" associated to all subtrees K of Γ of radius ≤r satisfying some natural "switch" conditions, there exists a finite cyclically red…
Analyzes word vectors and co-occurrence statistics in NLP models.
problem Understanding biases in NLP models through co-occurrence statistics.
method Developed an analytic model of statistics learned by Word2Vec and GloVe, derived the first solution to Word2Vec's algorithm, and analyzed independence in co-occurrence models.
result Demonstrated a universal property of word vectors that can reveal biases in data before they are absorbed by DL models.
Various measures can be used to estimate bias or unfairness in a predictor. Previous work has already established that some of these measures are incompatible with each other. Here we show that, when groups differ in prevalence of the predicted event, several intuitive, reasonable measures of fairness (probability of p…
We present a novel method for hierarchical topic detection where topics are obtained by clustering documents in multiple ways. Specifically, we model document collections using a class of graphical models called hierarchical latent tree models (HLTMs). The variables at the bottom level of an HLTM are observed binary va…
Models of bags of words typically assume topic mixing so that the words in a single bag come from a limited number of topics. We show here that many sets of bag of words exhibit a very different pattern of variation than the patterns that are efficiently captured by topic mixing. In many cases, from one bag of words to…