Investigates numerical issues in GP interpolation parameter estimation.
problem Numerical issues in maximum likelihood parameter estimation for Gaussian process interpolation.
method Investigates and proposes strategies to improve open-source software implementations.
result Improves reliability and reproducibility of studies relying on GP implementations.
Improved MLMC method for robust and efficient probability and density estimation.
problem Stability and poor complexity of MLMC for low-regularity functionals.
method Numerical smoothing combined with MLMC for deterministic quadrature methods.
result Significant improvement in strong convergence and robustness of MLMC method.
Numerically estimates Colding-Minicozzi entropies of self-shrinkers.
problem Estimating Colding-Minicozzi entropies of self-shrinkers.
method Numerical estimation of entropies for specific self-shrinkers.
result Colding-Minicozzi entropies of n-dimensional Angenent torus are decreasing with dimension. New estimators reduce variance in training variational autoencoders with discrete latent variables.
problem Training variational autoencoders with discrete latent variables requires efficient gradient estimation.
method Introduce ReinMax-Rao and ReinMax-CV estimators using Rao-Blackwellisation and control variates.
result Demonstrate superior performance on training variational autoencoders with discrete latent spaces.
New stable HOIF estimators for statistical functionals.
problem Constructing numerically stable HOIF estimators for statistical functionals.
method Developed new sHOIF estimators with provable guarantees.
result 2nd order sHOIF estimators were validated in synthetic experiments.
New method reduces density estimation variance for multivariate data.
problem Efficient multivariate density estimation with reduced dimensionality.
method Variance-Reduced Sketching (VRS) framework for multivariate density estimation.
result VRS framework significantly improves density estimation over existing methods.
Fenrir uses probabilistic numerics to simplify solving initial value problems.
problem Solving initial value problems in ordinary differential equations.
method Probabilistic numerics and Gauss--Markov regression.
result The method simplifies parameter estimation in ODEs, making it easier and more robust.
Deep learning method improves numerical approximation of FBSDEs with jumps.
problem Improving numerical solutions for FBSDEs with jumps.
method Deep learning-based approach for decoupled FBSDEs with jumps.
result A priori and a posteriori error estimates for finite and infinite activity cases.
New method combines ODE filters and numerical quadrature to propagate model uncertainty.
problem Propagation of model uncertainty in ODE solutions with uncertain parameters.
method Combining ODE filters with numerical quadrature.
result Effective propagation of both numerical and parametric uncertainty.
Estimates domain truncation error for option pricing PDEs.
problem Estimating error in option pricing models with domain truncation.
method Derives an estimate of domain truncation error for a multidimensional PDE system.
result Proposes a sharper error estimate for option pricing models.
New method estimates Schrödinger bridges using ML techniques.
problem Finding most likely stochastic evolution between two distributions.
method Equivalence with maximum likelihood estimation, numerical Gaussian process approach.
result Direct application of ML techniques for SBP estimation.
The paper analyzes numerical instability in variational flows and proposes a diagnostic method.
problem Numerical instability in variational flows affects sampling, density evaluation, and ELBO estimation.
method Treated variational flows as dynamical systems, used shadowing theory for theoretical guarantees, and developed a diagnostic procedure.
result Despite numerical instability, results from variational flows can be accurate enough for practical applications.
A new method for estimating uncertainties in neural ODEs without numerical integration.
problem Accurate estimation of predictive uncertainties in neural ODEs.
method Distributional Gradient Matching (DGM) algorithm that jointly trains a smoother and a dynamics model.
result Significantly more accurate predictions compared to traditional methods.
Estimates spectral risk measures from i.i.d. samples.
problem Estimating spectral risk measures from limited data.
method Numerical integration method for SRM estimation.
result Estimate concentrates exponentially for bounded support distributions.
We develop a maximum penalized quasi-likelihood estimator for estimating in a nonparametric way the diffusion function of a diffusion process, as an alternative to more traditional kernel-based estimators. After developing a numerical scheme for computing the maximizer of the penalized maximum quasi-likelihood function…
Corrects local error estimates for UBU integrator in SDEs, improving complexity guarantees.
problem Improper local error estimates in UBU integrator for SDEs.
method Reconciles theory with practice by correcting local error estimates.
result Stronger assumptions needed for O(d1/4ε−1/2) steps in Wasserstein-2 distance. Study provides bounds for estimating intrinsic dimension using Gaussian kernels.
problem Estimating intrinsic dimension from data.
method Finite-sample concentration and anti-concentration bounds for Gaussian kernel sums.
result Explicit dependence on sample size, bandwidth, and geometric parameters.
Transformer improves parameter estimation without needing closed-form solutions.
problem Parameter estimation in statistics, especially for complex distributions.
method Transformer-based approach for parameter estimation without closed-form solutions or derivations.
result Transformer-based approach achieves similar or better accuracy than maximum likelihood estimation.
Study validates Libor model for insurance benefits calculation.
problem Valuation of long-term insurance guarantees.
method Mean-field Libor market model, numerical ALM, aggregated life insurance data.
result Derives estimators for future discretionary benefits.
DNA-SE uses deep learning to solve semiparametric problems efficiently.
problem Solving semiparametric integral equations in high dimensions.
method Formulates semiparametric estimation as a bi-level optimization problem and uses DNN to approximate solutions.
result Demonstrates numerical and statistical advantages over traditional methods.
The paper uses facial keypoints to estimate post-surgical pain intensity.
problem Accurately assessing pain levels from self-reported ratings is challenging.
method The approach analyzes 2D and 3D facial keypoints to estimate pain intensity.
result The pain estimation model uses multiple instance learning.
Develops a nonparametric method to estimate isotropic covariance functions efficiently.
problem Estimating isotropic covariance functions without assuming a specific parametric form.
method Uses Bernstein polynomials and sieve maximum likelihood estimation.
result Consistent estimator with improved performance compared to parametric and nonparametric alternatives.
In this paper we propose a new kind of high order numerical scheme for backward stochastic differential equations(BSDEs). Unlike the traditional θ-scheme, we reduce truncation errors by taking θ carefully for every subinterval according to the characteristics of integrands. We give error estimates of this nonlinear…
A new method corrects weight values to improve treatment effect estimation.
problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in high-dimensional data with sample selection bias.
method Differentiable Pareto-Smoothed Weighting (DPSW) framework.
result Our method outperforms existing methods in treatment effect estimation.
The ratio of two probability densities can be used for solving various machine learning tasks such as covariate shift adaptation (importance sampling), outlier detection (likelihood-ratio test), and feature selection (mutual information). Recently, several methods of directly estimating the density ratio have been deve…
The L1-regularized maximum likelihood estimation problem has recently become a topic of great interest within the machine learning, statistics, and optimization communities as a method for producing sparse inverse covariance estimators. In this paper, a proximal gradient method (G-ISTA) for performing L1-regularized co…
Improved method for numerical conformal mappings on complex domains.
problem Accurate and efficient computation of conformal mappings on multiply connected domains.
method Generalization and refinement of the conjugate function method using high-order finite element methods.
result Achieved accurate and efficient construction of boundary values for multiply connected domains.
DALTON improves ODE parameter estimation by learning from noisy data.
problem High sensitivity to parameters in ODEs produces unreliable parameter estimates.
method Data-adaptive probabilistic likelihood approximation for ODEs.
result DALTON produces more accurate parameter estimates than existing methods.
Develops asymptotic analysis for RandNLA sampling estimators in least-squares problems.
problem Lack of distributional information for RandNLA estimators in statistical inference.
method Asymptotic analysis of sampling estimators for least-squares problems in two settings.
result Sampling estimators are asymptotically normally distributed under mild conditions.
We consider the problem of robustifying high-dimensional structured estimation. Robust techniques are key in real-world applications which often involve outliers and data corruption. We focus on trimmed versions of structurally regularized M-estimators in the high-dimensional setting, including the popular Least Trimme…
Consider a process, stochastic or deterministic, obtained by using a numerical integration scheme, or from Monte-Carlo methods involving an approximation to an integral, or a Newton-Raphson iteration to approximate the root of an equation. We will assume that we can sample from the distribution of the process from time…
We prove a general theorem providing smoothed analysis estimates for conic condition numbers of problems of numerical analysis. Our probability estimates depend only on geometric invariants of the corresponding sets of ill-posed inputs. Several applications to linear and polynomial equation solving show that the estima…
Study compares 5 ODE solvers on 3 case studies, finding varying accuracy.
problem Comparing estimation accuracy of 5 ODE solvers on 3 case studies.
method Used 5 different numerical ODE solvers (Euler's, Heun's, Midpoint, Runge-Kutta 4th order, ODE45) on 3 case studies and compared their results.
result Different solvers have varying accuracy depending on the case study.
Adaptive Multilevel Monte Carlo improves probability estimation for complex random variables.
problem Estimating probabilities of complex random variables with multiple approximations.
method Adaptive Multilevel Monte Carlo framework for discontinuous functionals.
result Achieves optimal computational complexities for both smooth and discontinuous functionals.
In this paper, we propose a verified numerical method for obtaining a sharp inclusion of the best constant for the embedding H01(Ω)↪Lp(Ω) on bounded convex domain in R2. We estimate the best constant by computing the corresponding extremal function using a verified numerical com…
New estimators outperform maximum likelihood without hyper-parameter estimation.
problem Improving system identification performance without hyper-parameter estimation.
method Developed generalized Bayes and closed-form biased estimators using excess MSE.
result New estimators have comparable performance to empirical-Bayes-based regularized estimator.
In this work, we present a numerical method based on a sparse grid approximation to compute the loss distribution of the balance sheet of a financial or an insurance company. We first describe, in a stylised way, the assets and liabilities dynamics that are used for the numerical estimation of the balance sheet distrib…
The EM algorithm is a novel numerical method to obtain maximum likelihood estimates and is often used for practical calculations. However, many of maximum likelihood estimation problems are nonconvex, and it is known that the EM algorithm fails to give the optimal estimate by being trapped by local optima. In order to …
New algorithm speeds up Lasso computation by proving faster convergence.
problem Lasso estimator's slow convergence rate due to ℓ1 penalty. method Homotopic approach using surrogate functions.
result Proves O([log(1/ε)]2) convergence rate for Lasso computation. Language models can predict numeric values as strings.
problem Regression tasks with numeric predictions.
method Causal sequence decoding models trained for next-token prediction.
result Decoder-based heads perform as well as standard heads in numeric regression tasks.
New estimator handles covariate shift with closed-form solution and super-efficiency.
problem Handling covariate shift in missing data and causal inference problems.
method Minimum Wasserstein distance estimation framework.
result Closed-form expression and super-efficiency relative to semiparametric efficient estimator.
We first estimate the average growth of a company's annual income and its variance by using both real company data and a numerical model which we already introduced a couple of years ago. Investment strategies expecting for income growth is evaluated based on the numerical model. Our numerical simulation suggests the p…
We consider assets for which price Xt and squared volatility Yt are jointly driven by Heston joint stochastic differential equations (SDEs). When the parameters of these SDEs are estimated from N sub-sampled data (XnT,YnT), estimation errors do impact the classical option pricing PDEs. We estimate thes…
IGNIS uses neural networks to estimate copula parameters robustly.
problem Pathological properties of Archimedean copulas make traditional estimators brittle.
method Unified neural estimation framework with multi-input architecture and softplus output layer.
result Accurate and stable estimates for real-world datasets.
A new method learns Hamiltonian functions from noisy data.
problem Learning Hamiltonian functions from noisy observations.
method Structure-preserving kernel ridge regression method.
result The method yields excellent numerical performances.
Proposes a method to improve CATE estimation by imputing missing potential outcomes.
problem Statistical discrepancy between distinct treatment groups in CATE estimation.
method Contrastive learning approach to reliably impute missing potential outcomes for a subset of individuals.
result Improves the accuracy and robustness of CATE estimation models.
We use analytical and numerical methods to investigate the equations for cohomogeneity one shrinking gradient Ricci solitons. We show the existence of a winding number for this system around the subvariety of phase space corresponding to Einstein solutions and obtain some estimates for it. We prove a non-existence resu…
We prove strong consistency and asymptotic normality of least squares estimators for the subcritical Heston model based on continuous time observations. We also present some numerical illustrations of our results.