Surveying nonparametric inference with shape constraints, past and future.
problem Statistical inference under shape constraints.
method Historical overview and future directions.
result Outlook on future research directions.
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arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
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48 results for “nonparametric inference”
Metalearned neural circuit performs inference over open classes.
problem Nonparametric Bayesian models' practical barriers in real-world applications.
method Extract inductive bias from nonparametric Bayesian model and transfer to neural network.
result Metalearned neural circuit achieves comparable or better performance than particle filter-based methods.
NP-iMCMC algorithm for nonparametric models in universal PPLs.
problem Developing inference algorithms for arbitrary nonparametric models in universal PPLs.
method Unifying involutive MCMC framework with a general procedure for state movement.
result Proves the correctness of the NP-iMCMC sampler and shows significant performance improvements.
Current variational inference methods for hierarchical Bayesian nonparametric models can neither characterize the correlation structure among latent variables due to the mean-field setting, nor infer the true posterior dimension because of the universal truncation. To overcome these limitations, we propose the conditio…
A debiasing method improves nonparametric regression's statistical properties.
problem Lack of theoretical guarantees for modern nonparametric regression methods.
method Model-free debiasing method incorporating a correction term.
result Debiased estimator satisfies pointwise and uniform risk convergence, asymptotic normality.
We present a max-margin nonparametric latent feature model, which unites the ideas of max-margin learning and Bayesian nonparametrics to discover discriminative latent features for link prediction and automatically infer the unknown latent social dimension. By minimizing a hinge-loss using the linear expectation operat…
NP-HMC extends HMC for nonparametric models in probabilistic programming.
problem Inference for nonparametric models in probabilistic programming.
method Introduces NP-HMC, a generalization of HMC for nonparametric models using tree representable functions.
result Empirically shows significant performance improvements over existing approaches.
This paper introduces a spline-based method for nonparametric ADVI that handles complex posterior distributions.
problem Learning complex posterior distributions with skewness, multimodality, and bounded support.
method Develops a spline-based nonparametric approximation approach for ADVI.
result Establishes the asymptotic consistency of the derived lower bound for importance weighted autoencoder.
Kernel Bayesian inference is a principled approach to nonparametric inference in probabilistic graphical models, where probabilistic relationships between variables are learned from data in a nonparametric manner. Various algorithms of kernel Bayesian inference have been developed by combining kernelized basic probabil…
We extend nonparametric models to handle extrapolation, providing bounds for inference.
problem Challenges in nonparametric statistical inference when evaluating outside the conditioning variable's support.
method Introduced a class of extrapolation assumptions and a consistent estimation procedure to handle extrapolation.
result Validated extrapolation-aware conclusions through various applications and real-world data.
Causal Inference with the Instrumental Variable Approach and Bayesian Nonparametric Machine Learningstat.ML
Bayesian nonparametric machine learning improves instrumental variable inference.
problem Estimating causal effects with nonlinear relationships.
method Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) for estimating functions and Dirichlet Process mixtures for error terms.
result Dramatic improvements in inference with nonlinear data, no manual tuning required.
Link prediction is a fundamental task in statistical network analysis. Recent advances have been made on learning flexible nonparametric Bayesian latent feature models for link prediction. In this paper, we present a max-margin learning method for such nonparametric latent feature relational models. Our approach attemp…
Paper presents a novel nonparametric method to price Asian options.
problem Difficulty in pricing Asian options, especially with arithmetic average price.
method Nonparametric Predictive Inference (NPI) for Asian option pricing.
result NPI method provides a more precise and uncertain prediction of future asset prices.
Neural networks improve nonparametric regression with measurement errors.
problem Nonparametric regression with measurement errors.
method Proposes a neural network design using FNN, normalizing flow, and inference network.
result Neural network approach is more flexible and superior or comparable to classical methods.
Novel mutual information bound improves statistical inference rates.
problem Improving statistical inference rates in Bayesian nonparametrics.
method Introduces a novel mutual information bound.
result Improved contraction rates for fractional posteriors.
Method constructs nonparametric prediction intervals with finite-sample guarantees.
problem Nonparametric instrumental variable regression with finite-sample coverage.
method Conformal inference framework applied to NPIV, combining with various estimators.
result Distribution-free, finite-sample coverage over chosen IV shifts.
Bayesian methods improve causal effect estimation, offering shrinkage and sensitivity analysis.
problem Improving causal effect estimation in practical settings.
method Parametric and nonparametric Bayesian approaches.
result Priors induce shrinkage and sparsity in parametric models.
Proposes inference for DNNs in GNRMs, addressing non-independence issues.
problem Inference for DNN-estimated means in GNRMs under non-independence.
method Develops a DNN estimator and ESM for variance estimation and confidence intervals.
result Demonstrates feasibility of inference under GNRMs with ESM.
A new particle algorithm improves mean-field variational inference.
problem Efficiently approximating nonparametric posterior distributions in machine learning.
method Introduces PArticle VI (PAVI), a novel particle-based algorithm for nonparametric mean-field approximation.
result Obtains non-asymptotic error bounds for PArticle VI, providing the first end-to-end guarantee for particle-based MFVI.
Statistical inference based on lossy or incomplete samples is often needed in research areas such as signal/image processing, medical image storage, remote sensing, signal transmission. In this paper, we propose a nonparametric testing procedure based on samples quantized to bits through a computationally efficient…
New method improves Bayesian inference for parametric models, robust to misspecification.
problem Inference can be untrustworthy when parametric models are wrong.
method Adaptive nonparametric corrections for parametric Bayesian models using generalized Bayes.
result The method achieves robustness and efficiency, converging fast when the parametric model is close to true.
Deep model learns complex latent codes without assuming factor structure.
problem Learning latent codes with complex, non-factorial distributions.
method Deep generative factor analysis with beta process prior and stochastic EM algorithm.
result Preliminary results show model can approximate complex distributions.
A boosting method improves nonparametric density estimation without smoothing assumptions.
problem Overfitting in nonparametric data fitting.
method Introduces a boosting algorithm for univariate nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of the boosting approach through simulations and real data experiments.
The paper introduces a method for learning nonparametric Volterra kernels using Gaussian processes.
problem Learning nonparametric nonlinear operators from data.
method NVKM model using Volterra series and Gaussian processes for unobserved and observed input functions.
result The NVKM model can perform both single and multiple output regression and system identification.
New method uses fractional posteriors for semiparametric inference with improved uncertainty quantification.
problem Semiparametric inference with nonparametric priors and fractional posteriors.
method Established a general Bernstein--von Mises theorem for fractional posterior distributions, proposed shifted-and-rescaled credible sets.
result Fractional posterior credible sets provide reliable uncertainty quantification but have inflated size; shifted-and-rescaled set is an efficient confidence set.
Nonparametric mixture models based on the Dirichlet process are an elegant alternative to finite models when the number of underlying components is unknown, but inference in such models can be slow. Existing attempts to parallelize inference in such models have relied on introducing approximations, which can lead to in…
The study assesses sensitivity to prior choices in Bayesian nonparametric models.
problem Difficulty in specifying priors for Bayesian nonparametric models.
method Utilizes variational Bayesian methods to assess sensitivity to concentration parameter and stick-breaking distribution.
result Demonstrates how to evaluate sensitivity to prior choices in Dirichlet process mixtures and related models.
Paper develops methods to estimate derivative of dose-response curve for continuous treatments.
problem Estimating the derivative of the dose-response curve for continuous treatments.
method Doubly robust (DR) inference method using kernel smoothing, bias-corrected IPW and DR estimators.
result Proposes novel bias-corrected IPW and DR estimators for continuous treatments.
While most Bayesian nonparametric models in machine learning have focused on the Dirichlet process, the beta process, or their variants, the gamma process has recently emerged as a useful nonparametric prior in its own right. Current inference schemes for models involving the gamma process are restricted to MCMC-based …
Paper develops PGMM framework for debiased inference on nonparametric IV estimators.
problem Automatic debiased inference on nonparametric IV functionals.
method Penalized GMM (PGMM) framework for functionals of IV estimators.
result PGMM-based debiased estimator performs well, achieving near-nominal coverage.
DPMM-CFL: Clustered Federated Learning via Dirichlet Process Mixture Model Nonparametric Clusteringcs.LG
DPMM-CFL clusters clients for federated learning without fixed K, improving performance.
problem Improving federated learning performance under non-IID client heterogeneity.
method DPMM-CFL uses a Dirichlet Process Mixture Model to infer both cluster number and client assignments.
result DPMM-CFL optimizes per-cluster federated objectives and jointly infers cluster number and assignments.
New methods for private statistical inference under local differential privacy.
problem Private statistical inference for population means with bounded observations.
method Nonparametric, nonasymptotic statistical inference using a generalized randomized response mechanism.
result Private confidence intervals and sequences for population means under LDP constraints.
Nonparametric density deconvolution and denoising using simulation-based inference
problem Learning latent signals and their distributions in the presence of measurement noise
method Convolutional maximum mean discrepancy (convMMD) loss and likelihood-free framework
result Learn a latent generative model matching observed data distribution
This paper reviews recent advances in Bayesian nonparametric techniques for constructing and performing inference in infinite hidden Markov models. We focus on variants of Bayesian nonparametric hidden Markov models that enhance a posteriori state-persistence in particular. This paper also introduces a new Bayesian non…
ABI bypasses likelihood intractability with nonparametric distribution matching.
problem Approximate Bayesian computation's inefficiency in high-dimensional settings and under diffuse priors.
method Adaptive Bayesian Inference (ABI) compares posterior distributions directly using nonparametric distribution matching and MSW distance.
result ABI significantly outperforms other methods in high-dimensional or dependent observation regimes.
Bayesian ODEs with Gaussian processes infer unknown dynamics from data.
problem Estimating unknown continuous-time system dynamics from data.
method Bayesian nonparametric model using Gaussian processes, sparse variational inference, probabilistic shooting.
result Posterior predictive uncertainty scores outperform alternative methods on multiple ODE learning tasks.
New method for debiased inference without assuming exact solutions in inverse problems.
problem Dealing with inverse problems where exact solutions may not exist.
method Nonparametric instrumental variable analysis without structural equations.
result Valid inference on functionals of inverse problems without assuming exact solutions.
The nested Chinese restaurant process and Bayesian nonparametric inference of topic hierarchiesstat.ML
We present the nested Chinese restaurant process (nCRP), a stochastic process which assigns probability distributions to infinitely-deep, infinitely-branching trees. We show how this stochastic process can be used as a prior distribution in a Bayesian nonparametric model of document collections. Specifically, we presen…
Beta process is the standard nonparametric Bayesian prior for latent factor model. In this paper, we derive a structured mean-field variational inference algorithm for a beta process non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) model with Poisson likelihood. Unlike the linear Gaussian model, which is well-studied in the non…
Tree structured graphical models are powerful at expressing long range or hierarchical dependency among many variables, and have been widely applied in different areas of computer science and statistics. However, existing methods for parameter estimation, inference, and structure learning mainly rely on the Gaussian or…
Bayesian nonparametrics enables dynamic skill discovery from expert data.
problem Fixed K for offline skill discovery in reinforcement learning.
method Variational inference, continuous relaxations, Bayesian nonparametrics.
result Nonparametric model with dynamically-changing number of options.
Proposes methods to identify and estimate counterfactual distributions with confounding.
problem Estimating counterfactual distributions in the presence of confounding.
method Nonparametric identification and semiparametric estimation using conditional copulas and machine learning.
result Valid inference for individual-level effects and nonparametric identifiability of latent confounding subspace.
In theory, Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) models are well suited to streaming data scenarios due to their ability to adapt model complexity with the observed data. Unfortunately, such benefits have not been fully realized in practice; existing inference algorithms are either not applicable to streaming applications or no…
Nonparametric efficient inference for network quantile causal effects under partial interferencestat.ME
Study efficient inference for network quantile causal effects with partial interference.
problem Estimating network causal effects on outcome quantiles with partial interference.
method Developed a nonparametric efficiency theory and a nonparametrically efficient estimator using a three-way cross-fitting procedure.
result Proposed estimator is consistent, asymptotically normal, and allows flexible estimation of nuisance functions.
This paper solves nonparametric estimation of continuous DPPs using kernel methods.
problem Estimating continuous Determinantal Point Processes (DPPs) without assuming a parametric form.
method Developed a fixed point algorithm based on a representer theorem for nonnegative functions in RKHS.
result Demonstrated a finite-dimensional problem for nonparametric MLE of continuous DPPs.
Inference in popular nonparametric Bayesian models typically relies on sampling or other approximations. This paper presents a general methodology for constructing novel tractable nonparametric Bayesian methods by applying the kernel trick to inference in a parametric Bayesian model. For example, Gaussian process regre…
Structured Nonparametric Variational Inference for Dependent Latent Modeling
problem Approximating posterior distributions with complex dependencies among latent variables
method Structured Nonparametric Variational Inference (SN-VI)
result Flexible and accurate posterior approximation with arbitrary shapes
Paper develops methods for inference on time series data using neural networks and sieves.
problem Inference on time series data with nonparametric conditional moment restrictions.
method GN-QLR based inference using general nonlinear sieves and multilayer neural networks.
result Optimally weighted GN-QLR statistic is asymptotically Chi-square distributed.