A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Proposes a nonparametric approach for inferring spike train filters.
Bayesian methods improve tracking multiple objects through dynamic dependencies.
Study on discrepancy principle for learning algorithms in nonparametric regression.
DNCF framework recovers real scenes from imperfect images robustly.
This paper introduces the kernel mixture network, a new method for nonparametric estimation of conditional probability densities using neural networks. We model arbitrarily complex conditional densities as linear combinations of a family of kernel functions centered at a subset of training points. The weights are deter…
The paper develops a cross-validation method for improving signal denoising techniques.
GNet uses Gaussian processes for scalable, flexible neural networks.
GNet uses Gaussian processes for scalable, flexible neural networks.
We introduce a family of adaptive estimators on graphs, based on penalizing the norm of discrete graph differences. This generalizes the idea of trend filtering [Kim et al. (2009), Tibshirani (2014)], used for univariate nonparametric regression, to graphs. Analogous to the univariate case, graph trend filteri…
The Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter is one of the most widely used econometric methods in applied macroeconomic research. Like all nonparametric methods, the HP filter depends critically on a tuning parameter that controls the degree of smoothing. Yet in contrast to modern nonparametric methods and applied work with these…
Kernel Bayesian inference is a principled approach to nonparametric inference in probabilistic graphical models, where probabilistic relationships between variables are learned from data in a nonparametric manner. Various algorithms of kernel Bayesian inference have been developed by combining kernelized basic probabil…
A new feature selection method using random forest and Kolmogorov filter.
We study trend filtering, a recently proposed tool of Kim et al. [SIAM Rev. 51 (2009) 339-360] for nonparametric regression. The trend filtering estimate is defined as the minimizer of a penalized least squares criterion, in which the penalty term sums the absolute th order discrete derivatives over the input points…
Bayesian nonparametric models improve tracking in cluttered environments.
We present the Causal Gaussian Process Convolution Model (CGPCM), a doubly nonparametric model for causal, spectrally complex dynamical phenomena. The CGPCM is a generative model in which white noise is passed through a causal, nonparametric-window moving-average filter, a construction that we show to be equivalent to …
This paper presents a fast and robust algorithm for trend filtering, a recently developed nonparametric regression tool. It has been shown that, for estimating functions whose derivatives are of bounded variation, trend filtering achieves the minimax optimal error rate, while other popular methods like smoothing spline…
New algorithms for interpreting complex multivariate functions.
Neural Jump ODEs improve online filtering and classification with robust performance.
We propose a Bayesian nonparametric method for low-pass filtering that can naturally handle unevenly-sampled and noise-corrupted observations. The proposed model is constructed as a latent-factor model for time series, where the latent factors are Gaussian processes with non-overlapping spectra. With this construction,…
Metalearned neural circuit performs inference over open classes.
Kalman filters are routinely used for many data fusion applications including navigation, tracking, and simultaneous localization and mapping problems. However, significant time and effort is frequently required to tune various Kalman filter model parameters, e.g. process noise covariance, pre-whitening filter models f…
Unified framework for DRO and DTA using Bayesian nonparametrics.
A nonparametric kernel-based method for realizing Bayes' rule is proposed, based on representations of probabilities in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. Probabilities are uniquely characterized by the mean of the canonical map to the RKHS. The prior and conditional probabilities are expressed in terms of RKHS functio…
In most adaptive signal processing applications, system linearity is assumed and adaptive linear filters are thus used. The traditional class of supervised adaptive filters rely on error-correction learning for their adaptive capability. The kernel method is a powerful nonparametric modeling tool for pattern analysis a…
We use statistical learning methods to construct an adaptive state estimator for nonlinear stochastic systems. Optimal state estimation, in the form of a Kalman filter, requires knowledge of the system's process and measurement uncertainty. We propose that these uncertainties can be estimated from (conditioned on) past…
The study establishes risk bounds for distributional regression estimators.
A novel Gaussian process approach for deconvolution of missing data signals.
BALLET filters a high-confidence region of interest for Bayesian optimization.
Geometric analysis of nonlinear dynamics applied to financial time series.
In this work, we study the problem of learning the volatility under market microstructure noise. Specifically, we consider noisy discrete time observations from a stochastic differential equation and develop a novel computational method to learn the diffusion coefficient of the equation. We take a nonparametric Bayesia…
This paper addresses the problem of filtering with a state-space model. Standard approaches for filtering assume that a probabilistic model for observations (i.e. the observation model) is given explicitly or at least parametrically. We consider a setting where this assumption is not satisfied; we assume that the knowl…
New methods learn sampling distributions for particle filters without supervision.
In theory, Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) models are well suited to streaming data scenarios due to their ability to adapt model complexity with the observed data. Unfortunately, such benefits have not been fully realized in practice; existing inference algorithms are either not applicable to streaming applications or no…
Graphon autoencoder generates graphs with arbitrary sizes using Chebyshev filters.
Bayesian nonparametrics are a class of probabilistic models in which the model size is inferred from data. A recently developed methodology in this field is small-variance asymptotic analysis, a mathematical technique for deriving learning algorithms that capture much of the flexibility of Bayesian nonparametric infere…
New algorithm learns regression models privately under growth condition.
We propose a novel graph pooling operation using cliques as the unit pool. As this approach is purely topological, rather than featural, it is more readily interpretable, a better analogue to image coarsening than filtering or pruning techniques, and entirely nonparametric. The operation is implemented within graph con…
The natural habitat of most Bayesian methods is data represented by exchangeable sequences of observations, for which de Finetti's theorem provides the theoretical foundation. Dirichlet process clustering, Gaussian process regression, and many other parametric and nonparametric Bayesian models fall within the remit of …
The goal of system identification is to learn about underlying physics dynamics behind the time-series data. To model the probabilistic and nonparametric dynamics model, Gaussian process (GP) have been widely used; GP can estimate the uncertainty of prediction and avoid over-fitting. Traditional GPSSMs, however, are ba…
Generative Networks outperform traditional methods in PiT ESG generation.
In this paper we introduce a novel online time series forecasting model we refer to as the pM-GP filter. We show that our model is equivalent to Gaussian process regression, with the advantage that both online forecasting and online learning of the hyper-parameters have a constant (rather than cubic) time complexity an…
We present an approach to deep estimation of discrete conditional probability distributions. Such models have several applications, including generative modeling of audio, image, and video data. Our approach combines two main techniques: dyadic partitioning and graph-based smoothing of the discrete space. By recursivel…
Warped DLMs improve forecasting for count time series.
We propose a vector-valued regression problem whose solution is equivalent to the reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) embedding of the Bayesian posterior distribution. This equivalence provides a new understanding of kernel Bayesian inference. Moreover, the optimization problem induces a new regularization for the …
Bayesian nonparametrics adapt model complexity to diverse datasets.
NP-iMCMC algorithm for nonparametric models in universal PPLs.
A boosting method improves nonparametric density estimation without smoothing assumptions.
The study examines Fisher-Riemann geodesics for nonparametric probability densities.