We present the Causal Gaussian Process Convolution Model (CGPCM), a doubly nonparametric model for causal, spectrally complex dynamical phenomena. The CGPCM is a generative model in which white noise is passed through a causal, nonparametric-window moving-average filter, a construction that we show to be equivalent to …
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48 results for “nonparametric causal processes”
LEAP identifies latent causal variables from temporal data.
problem Recovering time-delayed latent causal variables from general temporal data.
method Proposes LEAP, a framework that extends VAEs with constraints for temporally causal latent processes.
result Successfully identifies temporally causal latent processes from observed variables under various dependency structures.
Causal Inference with the Instrumental Variable Approach and Bayesian Nonparametric Machine Learningstat.ML
Bayesian nonparametric machine learning improves instrumental variable inference.
problem Estimating causal effects with nonlinear relationships.
method Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) for estimating functions and Dirichlet Process mixtures for error terms.
result Dramatic improvements in inference with nonlinear data, no manual tuning required.
New framework TDRL identifies latent causal variables from sequential data.
problem Identify latent causal variables from sequential data.
method Proposes TDRL framework to recover time-delayed latent causal variables and identify their relations from measured sequential data.
result Identifies latent causal variables reliably from sequential data.
Paper introduces ps-BART for estimating nonlinear ATE and CATE in continuous treatments.
problem Estimating ATE and CATE in continuous treatments with nonlinear relationships.
method Generalized ps-BART model for nonparametric estimation.
result ps-BART outperforms BCF model in highly nonlinear settings.
Study identifies causal relationships without direct supervision from unknown interventions.
problem Identify causal relationships from unknown interventions without direct supervision.
method General nonparametric setting with multiple datasets from unknown interventions.
result Identify ground truth latents and causal graph up to ambiguities.
Improves DRL for long-term causal inference with semiparametric methods.
problem Efficient inference for policy values in nonparametric MDPs with stringent conditions.
method Semiparametric Double Reinforcement Learning (DRL) with superefficient nonparametric estimators.
result Relaxes overlap conditions and reduces high-dimensional density-ratio estimation.
Improved model for non-smooth signals with complex spectra.
problem Current models struggle with non-smooth signals and complex spectral structures.
method CGPCM and RGPCM models with causality and Bayesian nonparametric interpretations, improved variational inference.
result Proposed models show better performance on synthetic and real-world data.
Modeling multiple Hawkes processes with shared dynamics using graphons.
problem Modeling multiple multivariate point processes with shared dynamics.
method Leverage graphons to model an uncountable event type space, learn graphon-based Hawkes process model by minimizing hierarchical optimal transport distance.
result Infer underlying relations and simulate event sequences with similar dynamics.
A fundamental goal in network neuroscience is to understand how activity in one region drives activity elsewhere, a process referred to as effective connectivity. Here we propose to model this causal interaction using integro-differential equations and causal kernels that allow for a rich analysis of effective connecti…
Bayesian methods improve causal effect estimation, offering shrinkage and sensitivity analysis.
problem Improving causal effect estimation in practical settings.
method Parametric and nonparametric Bayesian approaches.
result Priors induce shrinkage and sparsity in parametric models.
Bayesian model for cost-effectiveness analysis with subgroup discovery.
problem Statistical challenges in cost-effectiveness analysis, especially with non-random treatment assignment and censored data.
method Developed a nonparametric Bayesian model using Dirichlet and Gamma processes to estimate cost-survival distributions and identify cost-effectiveness subgroups.
result Identified and estimated policy-relevant causal CEA estimands using a Bayesian nonparametric g-computation procedure.
Estimates peer influence effects using embeddings for social networks.
problem Estimating peer contagion effects in social networks with unobserved confounders.
method Nonparametrically adjusts for homophily using node embeddings.
result Formalizes causal effect of peer influence in social networks.
New method recovers causal DAGs from general environments without strict assumptions.
problem Recovering causal DAGs from real-world data with varying distributions.
method Formalizes desiderata for causal representation learning in general environments, leveraging sufficient change conditions up to third-order derivatives.
result Fully recovers latent DAG and identifies latent variables up to minor indeterminacies under nonparametric mixing.
Nonparametric efficient inference for network quantile causal effects under partial interferencestat.ME
Study efficient inference for network quantile causal effects with partial interference.
problem Estimating network causal effects on outcome quantiles with partial interference.
method Developed a nonparametric efficiency theory and a nonparametrically efficient estimator using a three-way cross-fitting procedure.
result Proposed estimator is consistent, asymptotically normal, and allows flexible estimation of nuisance functions.
Bayesian method estimates intervention effects in non-linear data.
problem Causal discovery from observational data with non-linear relationships.
method Gaussian Process Networks (GPN) with Bayesian estimation and Monte Carlo methods.
result Approach accurately identifies and reflects uncertainty of causal estimates.
Develops a test for conditional local independence of counting processes.
problem Testing the hypothesis of conditional local independence among continuous time stochastic processes.
method Introduces a new functional parameter, the Local Covariance Measure (LCM), and proposes a test called (X)-LCT using nonparametric estimators and sample splitting or cross-fitting.
result The (X)-LCT test can be controlled uniformly with modest rates, and it works well without restrictive parametric assumptions.
Fast nonparametric conditional independence testing via two-stage regression
problem Fast nonparametric conditional independence testing
method BLITZ (Broad-to-Local Independence Testing via residualiZation)
result Better null calibration than fast kernel, random-feature, and regression-based competitors
New method balances covariates for stable causal survival effect estimation.
problem Estimating causal survival effects in data with conditionally-independent censoring.
method Covariate-balancing approach to empirically stable and asymptotically efficient estimation.
result Validated theoretical results in synthetic and semi-synthetic data.
Reframed GES uses a neural conditional dependence measure for consistent causal structure learning.
problem Identifying causal structure in nonparametric settings.
method Reframed GES algorithm with a neural conditional dependence measure.
result Optimality and consistency of the reframed GES algorithm under standard assumptions.
We identify and analyze selection structure in sequential data.
problem Selection biases in sequential data can distort analysis and hide underlying generation processes.
method Nonparametric identifiability of selection structure without interventional experiments.
result Selection structure is identifiable in sequential data without parametric assumptions.
We design a new nonparametric method that allows one to estimate the matrix of integrated kernels of a multivariate Hawkes process. This matrix not only encodes the mutual influences of each nodes of the process, but also disentangles the causality relationships between them. Our approach is the first that leads to an …
FastKCI speeds up KCI tests for causal inference on large datasets.
problem Cubic computational complexity of kernel-based conditional independence tests.
method Mixture-of-experts approach with parallel Gaussian process inference.
result Substantial computational speedups with maintained statistical power.
Polynomial-time algorithm learns causal graphs without parametric assumptions.
problem Learning causal graphs from data without assuming linearity or parametric forms.
method Model-free polynomial-time algorithm with finite-sample guarantees.
result Algorithm achieves linear cost in dimension and samples compared to optimal.
New methods for estimating complex causal effects in econometrics.
problem Estimating causal parameters in short panel data models using nested nonparametric instrumental variable regression.
method Introducing techniques to limit ill-posedness in nested NPIV, providing explicit mean square rates and efficient inference.
result Explicit mean square rates for nested NPIV and efficient inference for causal parameters.
New method identifies latent causal graphs without parametric assumptions.
problem Identifying latent causal graphs without parametric assumptions.
method Constructive proofs with new graphical concepts.
result Conditions for nonparametric identification of latent causal graphs.
We tackle causal inference under conditional moment restrictions using importance weighting.
problem Challenges in causal inference under conditional moment restrictions, especially in high-dimensional settings.
method Transform conditional moment restrictions to unconditional moment restrictions through importance weighting.
result Successfully estimate nonparametric functions defined under conditional moment restrictions.
New method for causal inference with observed covariates improves learning rates.
problem Causal inference with observed covariates in nonparametric instrumental variable regression.
method Introduces novel Fourier measure for partial smoothing and adapts kernel lengthscales for anisotropic smoothness.
result Upper and lower learning rates for KIV-O show interpolation between NPIV and NPR rates.
Local learning method selects covariates for causal effect estimation in the presence of latent variables.
problem Estimating causal effects from nonexperimental data with latent variables.
method Local learning approach that identifies valid adjustment sets for causal relationships.
result Ensures soundness and completeness of causal effect estimation under standard assumptions.
Generates synthetic manufacturing data for causal discovery benchmarking.
problem Lack of suitable real data for validating causal discovery algorithms.
method Distributional random forests for estimating conditional distributions.
result Semisynthetic manufacturing data adheres to a causal model.
New kernel methods estimate complex causal relationships.
problem Estimating nonparametric causal functions like dose-response curves.
method Kernel ridge regression with decomposition property.
result Uniform consistency with finite sample rates proved.
Scientists develop a model to identify treatment responders from non-responders.
problem Analyzing samples that respond to treatment in studies.
method Causal two-groups (C2G) model, empirical Bayes procedures.
result The C2G model controls false discovery rate and has near-optimal power.
Paper relaxes faithfulness assumption for causal discovery using interventions.
problem Violation of faithfulness assumption in natural systems leads to incorrect causal structure identification.
method Use intervention-immediacy faithfulness assumption to identify causal structures with hard interventions.
result Interventions contain information about causal structure that can identify causal structures when faithfulness is violated.
New nonparametric estimators improve causal effect estimation.
problem Estimation of causal effects with selection bias.
method Undersmoothing of the highly adaptive lasso for estimating the weighting mechanism.
result Asymptotic efficiency and convergence to nonparametric efficiency bound.
A new method selects covariates for causal effect estimation without strong assumptions.
problem Estimating causal effects without global causal structure learning and strong assumptions.
method Local covariate selection method that avoids pretreatment and causal sufficiency assumptions.
result The method achieves accurate causal effect estimation with improved computational efficiency.
The paper tackles counterfactual inference with multioutput deep kernels in high-dimensional settings.
problem Performing counterfactual inference with observational data in high-dimensional settings with multiple actions and outcomes.
method The paper presents a general class of counterfactual multi-task deep kernels models based on Structural Causal Models (SCM) and Gaussian Processes.
result The models estimate causal effects and learn policies efficiently, scaling well with high dimensions.
Framework LiLY recovers latent causal variables from time-series data under distribution shifts.
problem Learning and correcting models under unknown distribution shifts in time-series data.
method LiLY framework that recovers latent causal variables and identifies their relations from temporal data under different distribution shifts.
result The framework reliably identifies time-delayed latent causal influences from observed variables under different distribution changes.
CauSTream forecasts streamflow by integrating causal graphs for better interpretability.
problem Streamflow forecasting lacks interpretability and generalization due to fixed causal models.
method CauSTream learns causal graphs for meteorological forcings and routing dependencies.
result CauSTream outperforms existing methods, especially at longer forecast windows.
Proposes a new model for testing causal structural priors and synthesizing data.
problem Testing and synthesizing causal structural priors using nonparametric knowledge and neural networks.
method Causal Structural Hypothesis Testing (C-SHT) and Causal Structural Variational Hypothesis Testing (C-SVHT) using deep neural networks.
result Demonstrates out-of-distribution generalization error as a proxy for causal structural prior hypothesis testing.
It is commonplace to encounter heterogeneous or nonstationary data, of which the underlying generating process changes across domains or over time. Such a distribution shift feature presents both challenges and opportunities for causal discovery. In this paper, we develop a framework for causal discovery from such data…
CRL uses causality to build interpretable AI models from complex data.
problem Interpreting deep neural networks' implicit representations.
method Causal representation learning (CRL) synthesizing latent variable models, causal graphical models, and nonparametric statistics.
result CRL can improve interpretability of generative AI models.
A new method corrects bias in causal inference by balancing covariate distributions.
problem Bias in causal effect estimates due to covariate imbalance.
method Causal Optimal Transport, a nonparametric approach targeting distributional balance.
result Causal Optimal Transport outperforms other methods in misspecified models.
This paper tackles causal representation learning from multiple distributions without hard interventions.
problem Recovering latent causal variables and their relations from multiple distributions.
method Develops general solutions for causal representation learning without hard interventions, under sparsity constraints and suitable change conditions.
result Recovering the moralized graph of the underlying directed acyclic graph and latent variables related to the underlying causal model.
New method stabilizes IF-based estimators for causal mediation analysis with continuous mediators.
problem Stability issues in IF-based estimators for continuous mediators.
method Nonparametric weighted balancing method to estimate nuisance functions.
result Significant reductions in bias and variance compared to existing methods.
A new method learns outcome-aware spectral features for causal effect estimation.
problem Estimation of causal effects in the presence of hidden confounders.
method Augmented Spectral Feature Learning framework that minimizes a contrastive loss derived from an augmented operator incorporating outcome information.
result Our method remains effective even under spectral misalignment.
Quasi-experimental research designs, such as regression discontinuity and interrupted time series, allow for causal inference in the absence of a randomized controlled trial, at the cost of additional assumptions. In this paper, we provide a framework for discontinuity-based designs using Bayesian model comparison and …
New method selects causal features from diverse data types.
problem Discovering causal relationships from non-continuous data types.
method Transformation-Model (TRAM) based Invariant Causal Prediction (TRAM-ICP) with TRAM-GCM and TRAM-Wald tests.
result Improved power and type I error control for diverse response types.
Causal Mosaic distinguishes cause from effect using nonlinear ICA and ensemble methods.
problem Distinguishing cause from effect in bivariate settings.
method Nonlinear ICA and ensemble framework (Causal Mosaic).
result Causal Mosaic shows state-of-the-art performance on artificial and real-world datasets.