Bayesian filtering approach identifies nonlinear restoring forces in dynamic systems.
problem Identification of nonlinear dynamic systems in engineering.
method Modeling the nonlinear restoring force as a Gaussian process, converting it to a state-space model, and inferring internal states and the nonlinear restoring force through filtering and smoothing.
result The approach effectively identifies nonlinear restoring forces in both simulated and experimental datasets.
Empirical mode modeling improves state-space analysis of noisy data.
problem Analyzing nonlinear systems with noisy data.
method Combining empirical mode decomposition with empirical dynamic modeling.
result Empirical mode modeling enhances state-space representations in noisy data.
Paper uses variational inference to estimate nonlinear models.
problem Parameter estimation for nonlinear state-space models.
method Variational inference approach for nonlinear state-space models.
result The method provides robust parameter estimates and outperforms alternatives.
Improved state estimation in nonlinear models using amortized backward variational inference.
problem State estimation in general state-space models.
method Amortized backward variational inference with neural network parameters.
result Linear growth of variational approximation error in number of observations.
In this paper, the problem of state estimation, in the context of both filtering and smoothing, for nonlinear state-space models is considered. Due to the nonlinear nature of the models, the state estimation problem is generally intractable as it involves integrals of general nonlinear functions and the filtered and sm…
This research improves dynamical systems understanding by identifying latent states and their nonlinear transitions.
problem Previous work on dynamical systems could not identify nonlinear transition dynamics, leading to unreliable predictions.
method Proposes a state-space modeling framework using variational auto-encoders to identify latent states and their nonlinear transition functions.
result Demonstrates high accuracy in recovering latent state dynamics and future prediction accuracy.
Bayesian state and parameter estimation for nonlinear models using variational methods.
problem Estimating states and parameters for nonlinear state-space models.
method Variational approach to approximate the intractable Bayesian distribution, resulting in an optimisation problem.
result The proposed method efficiently computes Bayesian estimates for nonlinear models, outperforming Hamiltonian Monte Carlo in numerical examples.
Deep SSMs use neural networks to identify complex systems.
problem Identifying nonlinear systems with high uncertainty.
method Deep state space models with neural networks.
result Deep SSMs outperform traditional methods on benchmarks.
The paper introduces a fast algorithm for learning and forecasting nonlinear dynamics from noisy time series data.
problem Challenges in capturing nonlinear dynamics from noisy time series data.
method A projected nonlinear state-space model with kernel functions applied to projected lines.
result The model effectively learns and forecasts complex nonlinear dynamics with computational efficiency.
New nonlinear smoothers improve state estimation in chaotic systems.
problem Improving state estimation in chaotic dynamical systems with non-Gaussian behavior.
method Developed nonlinear backward ensemble transport smoothers with parameterization and regularization of transport maps.
result Nonlinear smoothers yield lower estimation error than conventional methods for comparable model evaluations.
Stanza models complex time series with balance between traditional and deep learning approaches.
problem Capturing long-term structure in non-stationary time series.
method Nonlinear, non-stationary state space model.
result Achieves forecasting accuracy competitive with deep LSTMs, especially for multi-step ahead forecasting.
Develops VAEs for learning complex physical systems from data.
problem Learning low-dimensional representations of nonlinear physical systems.
method Variational Autoencoders with manifold latent spaces.
result Effective in learning nonlinear Burgers equation and constrained mechanical systems.
The paper defines and characterizes conditional nonlinear expectations.
problem Defining and characterizing conditional nonlinear expectations.
method Embedding in decision theory, using state-dependent preferences, and continuous utility representation.
result Consistent backward conditional projections are characterized by the Sure-Thing Principle.
One of the key challenges in identifying nonlinear and possibly non-Gaussian state space models (SSMs) is the intractability of estimating the system state. Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, such as the particle filter (introduced more than two decades ago), provide numerical solutions to the nonlinear state estima…
Federated learning interprets temporal dynamics across clients with graph attention.
problem Interpreting temporal patterns across decentralized, heterogeneous systems with nonlinear dynamics.
method Graph Attention Network for learning state transition models over latent states communicated between clients.
result First interpretable characterization of cross-client temporal interdependencies in decentralized nonlinear systems.
GD-VAEs learn dynamics from observations using geometric and topological information.
problem Learning parsimonious representations of nonlinear dynamics from observations.
method Develops data-driven methods incorporating geometric and topological information using Variational Autoencoders (VAEs).
result GD-VAEs provide methods for learning reduced dimensional representations of nonlinear dynamics.
The paper tackles data-driven optimal control of unknown nonlinear systems using RKHS.
problem Unknown nonlinear dynamics and stage cost functions.
method Embed state densities into RKHS, learn Markov operators, solve Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman recursions.
result Solves a wide range of nonlinear control problems, including depth regulation.
Develops a flexible model for regime transitions in time series data.
problem Nonlinear and context-dependent regime transitions in time series data.
method Semi-parametric state-space model with learned transition functions.
result Improved recovery of nonlinear transition dynamics and earlier detection of regime changes.
State-space models have been successfully used for more than fifty years in different areas of science and engineering. We present a procedure for efficient variational Bayesian learning of nonlinear state-space models based on sparse Gaussian processes. The result of learning is a tractable posterior over nonlinear dy…
Predictability enables efficient parallelization of nonlinear models.
problem Understanding which nonlinear state space models can be efficiently parallelized.
method Established a relationship between system dynamics and optimization problem conditioning, quantified by the largest Lyapunov exponent.
result Predictable systems can be evaluated in O((logT)2) time, improving over conventional sequential approaches. Active learning method estimates nonlinear systems efficiently.
problem Identifying nonlinear dynamical systems with continuous states and actions.
method Repeating three steps: trajectory planning, tracking, and re-estimation.
result Estimates nonlinear dynamical systems at a parametric rate.
We consider filtering in high-dimensional non-Gaussian state-space models with intractable transition kernels, nonlinear and possibly chaotic dynamics, and sparse observations in space and time. We propose a novel filtering methodology that harnesses transportation of measures, convex optimization, and ideas from proba…
An incremental/online state dynamic learning method is proposed for identification of the nonlinear Gaussian state space models. The method embeds the stochastic variational sparse Gaussian process as the probabilistic state dynamic model inside a particle filter framework. Model updating is done at measurement sample …
Dual Bayesian Affine Estimators for Wiener-type state-space models
problem Estimating parameters in Wiener-type state-space models
method Fixed-point architecture combining two affine estimators
result Dual basis-parameter estimator achieves comparable parameter MSE to purely affine estimator
SSMs combined with neural networks match Transformers in dynamic token selection.
problem Understanding the capabilities of SSMs in dynamic token selection.
method Exploring SSMs combined with fully connected neural networks.
result SSMs combined with nonlinear layers can efficiently solve challenging tasks and estimate functions.
We consider a nonlinear state-space model with the state transition and observation functions expressed as basis function expansions. The coefficients in the basis function expansions are learned from data. Using a connection to Gaussian processes we also develop priors on the coefficients, for tuning the model flexibi…
State space models (SSMs) provide a flexible framework for modeling complex time series via a latent stochastic process. Inference for nonlinear, non-Gaussian SSMs is often tackled with particle methods that do not scale well to long time series. The challenge is two-fold: not only do computations scale linearly with t…
This study improves state estimation for nonlinear systems using conditional normalizing flows.
problem Performance degradation of traditional filtering algorithms in nonlinear systems with non-Gaussian uncertainty.
method Uses conditional normalizing flows with MLP, transformer, or state-space models for state and parameter estimation.
result Optimal-transport-inspired kinetic loss mitigates overparameterization in flows.
AdaKoop efficiently models nonlinear dynamics from nonstationary data streams.
problem Capturing nonlinear dynamics in nonstationary data streams with computational efficiency.
method Koopman operator theory and probabilistic framework for streaming data.
result AdaKoop outperforms state-of-the-art methods in real-time forecasting accuracy and efficiency.
New neural architectures with multivariate nonlinearities are optimal in function space.
problem Optimality of neural architectures with multivariate nonlinearities.
method Construction of Banach spaces via k-plane transform and sparsity-promoting norm, proving representer theorem. result Neural architectures with multivariate nonlinearities are optimal in function space.
The paper introduces a new pairs trading model using nonlinear and non-Gaussian state-space models.
problem Developing a robust trading strategy for pairs of assets with non-Gaussian and heteroskedastic innovations.
method A nonlinear and non-Gaussian state-space model for the spread between two assets, with mean reversion modeled as a mean-reverting process.
result The new trading strategy yields significantly higher returns and Sharpe ratios compared to existing methods.
A new method for estimating adversarial strategies in nonlinear systems.
problem Inferring an intelligent adversarial agent's strategy in highly nonlinear systems.
method Formulated inverse cognition as a nonlinear Gaussian state-space model and developed an inverse UKF (IUKF) system.
result The estimation error of IUKF converges and closely follows the recursive Cramér-Rao lower bound.
This tutorial provides a gentle introduction to the particle Metropolis-Hastings (PMH) algorithm for parameter inference in nonlinear state-space models together with a software implementation in the statistical programming language R. We employ a step-by-step approach to develop an implementation of the PMH algorithm …
A method models nonlinear dynamics from data using barycentric coordinates and memory.
problem Modeling complex dynamical systems from data.
method SPA for data projection, barycentric coordinates, delay-embedding theorem for memory.
result Stable models of chaotic dynamics and attractors are reproduced.
MambaStock predicts stock prices with high accuracy using a state space model.
problem Inaccurate stock price predictions due to nonlinearity in stock market data.
method Mamba-based state space model with selection mechanism and scan module.
result MambaStock outperforms previous methods in stock price prediction accuracy.
RichID learns optimal control policies from nonlinear observations.
problem Continuous control with unknown nonlinearity in system model.
method RichID algorithm using a least-squares regression oracle.
result First provable sample complexity guarantee for continuous control.
The approximation of nonlinear kernels via linear feature maps has recently gained interest due to their applications in reducing the training and testing time of kernel-based learning algorithms. Current random projection methods avoid the curse of dimensionality by embedding the nonlinear feature space into a low dim…
New RL approach tackles non-linear MDPs without linear assumptions.
problem Sample efficiency in RL for complex, nonlinear MDPs with continuous states.
method Introduces EPW condition to relax linear structure requirements; provides sample-efficient RL algorithm.
result EPW condition allows solving MDPs without linear assumptions, including Atari games.
In this article, we present the elitist particle filter based on evolutionary strategies (EPFES) as an efficient approach for nonlinear system identification. The EPFES is derived from the frequently-employed state-space model, where the relevant information of the nonlinear system is captured by an unknown state vecto…
New RL method handles large state-action spaces with complex models.
problem Complex models and large state-action spaces in reinforcement learning.
method π-KRVI, an optimistic modification of least-squares value iteration using kernel ridge regression.
result First order-optimal regret guarantees under general settings, improving over state of the art.
New technologies for recording the activity of large neural populations during complex behavior provide exciting opportunities for investigating the neural computations that underlie perception, cognition, and decision-making. Nonlinear state space models provide an interpretable signal processing framework by combinin…
Proposes LAE-EnKF for improved nonlinear data assimilation.
problem Performance of EnKF deteriorates for strongly nonlinear dynamics.
method Reformulates assimilation in a learned latent space with linear dynamics.
result LAE-EnKF yields more accurate and stable assimilation.
State space models (SSM) have been widely applied for the analysis and visualization of large sequential datasets. Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) is a very popular particle-based method to sample latent states from intractable posteriors. However, SSM is significantly influenced by the choice of the proposal. Recently Ha…
Most previous contributions to BSDEs, and the related theories of nonlinear expectation and dynamic risk measures, have been in the framework of continuous time diffusions or jump diffusions. Using solutions of BSDEs on spaces related to finite state, continuous time Markov chains, we develop a theory of nonlinear expe…
A new method learns complex dynamical systems from data efficiently.
problem Learning complex dynamical systems from large-scale data efficiently.
method Low-rank structured variational autoencoding framework for nonlinear Gaussian state-space models.
result Consistently demonstrates better predictive capabilities compared to other models.
Maximum likelihood (ML) estimation using Newton's method in nonlinear state space models (SSMs) is a challenging problem due to the analytical intractability of the log-likelihood and its gradient and Hessian. We estimate the gradient and Hessian using Fisher's identity in combination with a smoothing algorithm. We exp…
The Kalman filter (KF) is used in a variety of applications for computing the posterior distribution of latent states in a state space model. The model requires a linear relationship between states and observations. Extensions to the Kalman filter have been proposed that incorporate linear approximations to nonlinear m…
IBPF algorithm tackles high-dimensional parameter learning for complex systems.
problem Learning high-dimensional parameters in complex, partially observed, and nonlinear systems.
method Iterated Block Particle Filter (IBPF) for graphical state space models.
result IBPF algorithm consistently beats the curse of dimensionality across various experiments.