A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
This paper presents regression models obtained from a process of blind prediction of peptide binding affinity from provided descriptors for several distinct datasets as part of the 2006 Comparative Evaluation of Prediction Algorithms (COEPRA) contest. This paper finds that kernel partial least squares, a nonlinear part…
The kernel least mean squares (KLMS) algorithm is a computationally efficient nonlinear adaptive filtering method that "kernelizes" the celebrated (linear) least mean squares algorithm. We demonstrate that the least mean squares algorithm is closely related to the Kalman filtering, and thus, the KLMS can be interpreted…
This book introduces linear models and their theories rigorously.
problem Understanding linear models and their theories.
method Explains linear models from three perspectives, introduces maximum likelihood estimation, and proves least squares is the best unbiased linear model.
result Least squares is the best unbiased linear model in terms of mean squared error.
We study the problem of recovering a structured signal x0 from high-dimensional data yi=f(aiTx0) for some nonlinear (and potentially unknown) link function f, when the regressors ai are iid Gaussian. Brillinger (1982) showed that ordinary least-squares estimate…
New method learns low-dimensional models for systems with non-polynomial terms.
problem Modeling systems with non-polynomial nonlinear terms that are spatially local and given in analytic form.
method Non-intrusive model reduction method that learns operators for linear and polynomially nonlinear dynamics via a least-squares problem incorporating given non-polynomial terms.
result Comparable accuracy to intrusive methods that require full knowledge of governing equations.
Spectral decomposition of the Koopman operator is attracting attention as a tool for the analysis of nonlinear dynamical systems. Dynamic mode decomposition is a popular numerical algorithm for Koopman spectral analysis; however, we often need to prepare nonlinear observables manually according to the underlying dynami…
This study defines a multivariate Self--Exciting Threshold Autoregressive with eXogenous input (MSETARX) models and present an estimation procedure for the parameters. The conditions for stationarity of the nonlinear MSETARX models is provided. In particular, the efficiency of an adaptive parameter estimation algorithm…
Kernel adaptive filters (KAF) are a class of powerful nonlinear filters developed in Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS). The Gaussian kernel is usually the default kernel in KAF algorithms, but selecting the proper kernel size (bandwidth) is still an open important issue especially for learning with small sample s…
We present ADMM-Softmax, an alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) for solving multinomial logistic regression (MLR) problems. Our method is geared toward supervised classification tasks with many examples and features. It decouples the nonlinear optimization problem in MLR into three steps that can be solv…
The paper proposes a new system ID method from noisy data.
problem System identification of linear and nonlinear non-autonomous systems from noisy and sparse data.
method Bayesian formulation for learning a hidden Markov model with stochastic dynamics, analyzed in the context of least squares and multiple shooting approaches.
result The proposed approach outperforms existing methods in terms of mean squared error and model generalizability.
We study parameter estimation and asymptotic inference for sparse nonlinear regression. More specifically, we assume the data are given by y=f(x⊤β∗)+ε, where f is nonlinear. To recover β∗, we propose an ℓ1-regularized least-squares estimator. Unlike classical linear regression, the correspondin…
We use statistical learning methods to construct an adaptive state estimator for nonlinear stochastic systems. Optimal state estimation, in the form of a Kalman filter, requires knowledge of the system's process and measurement uncertainty. We propose that these uncertainties can be estimated from (conditioned on) past…
Paper addresses identifiability and asymptotics of ODE systems from noisy data.
problem Identifying parameters and causal structure of linear ODE systems from discrete observations.
method Developed sufficient conditions for identifiability, proved consistency and asymptotic normality of NLS estimator, constructed confidence sets, and inferred causal structure.
result Consistent and asymptotically normal parameter estimator for linear ODE systems under mild conditions.
We study randomized sketching methods for approximately solving least-squares problem with a general convex constraint. The quality of a least-squares approximation can be assessed in different ways: either in terms of the value of the quadratic objective function (cost approximation), or in terms of some distance meas…
Cross validation residuals are well known for the ordinary least squares model. Here leave-M-out cross validation is extended to generalised least squares. The relationship between cross validation residuals and Cook's distance is demonstrated, in terms of an approximation to the difference in the generalised residual …