Non-parametric bootstrap improves robust portfolio and trading strategy optimization.
problem Mitigating uncertainty in expected returns and covariances in financial decision-making.
method Non-parametric bootstrap framework for robust optimization without distributional assumptions.
result Improved out-of-sample performance with smoother, more stable results.
BN^2MF identifies unknown exposure patterns in environmental mixtures.
problem Identifying unknown exposure patterns in environmental mixtures.
method Bayesian non-parametric non-negative matrix factorization (BN^2MF) with non-negative continuous priors and a non-parametric sparse prior.
result Estimates patterns of chemical exposures without specifying the number of patterns.
We analyze how uncertainty in models affects optimization outcomes using Wasserstein distances.
problem Sensitivity of optimization problems to model uncertainty.
method Non-parametric approach using Wasserstein balls to capture uncertainty, providing explicit corrections for value function and optimizer.
result Explicit formulae for first-order corrections to value function and optimizer.
Study finds a method to discover causal relationships that are invariant to marginal distributions.
problem Current causal discovery methods are sensitive to marginal distributions, leading to unreliable results.
method Proposes a non-parametric estimator that marginalizes the marginals to find intrinsic causal relationships.
result The proposed method yields causal estimators competitive with current methodologies and emphasizes uncertainty.
Model separates overall uncertainty into aleatoric and epistemic components for active learning.
problem Active learning with uncertainty quantification.
method Non-stationary Heteroscedastic Gaussian process model.
result Model separates overall uncertainty into aleatoric and epistemic components.
The paper monitors model deterioration using uncertainty estimation.
problem Challenges in monitoring deployed machine learning models.
method Non-parametric bootstrapped uncertainty estimates and SHAP values.
result The approach detects model deterioration and uncertainty effectively.
Understanding and measuring model risk is important to financial practitioners. However, there lacks a non-parametric approach to model risk quantification in a dynamic setting and with path-dependent losses. We propose a complete theory generalizing the relative-entropic approach by Glasserman and Xu to the dynamic ca…
Deep learning methods continue to have a decided impact on machine learning, both in theory and in practice. Statistical theoretical developments have been mostly concerned with approximability or rates of estimation when recovering infinite dimensional objects (curves or densities). Despite the impressive array of ava…
New algorithm improves Gaussian process hyperparameter tuning for large datasets.
problem Scalable hyperparameter tuning for Gaussian processes on large datasets.
method Estimates smoothness and length-scale parameters in Matern kernel using novel loss functions.
result Improved uncertainty quantification over traditional methods.
New metric derived for robust optimization in stochastic control problems.
problem Non-parametric uncertainty in multiperiod stochastic control problems.
method Derived a new metric, adapted (p,∞)--Wasserstein distance, and used dynamic programming principle. result Dynamic programming principle for DRO problems with semi-separable cost functions.
Automatically counts microglial cells in rat spinal cord images, providing precise counts and uncertainty estimates.
problem Counting microglial cells in small, heterogeneous datasets is time-consuming and requires extensive training.
method Pre-processing to filter images, designing a non-parametric, non-linear kernel counter, providing uncertainty estimation.
result The method can provide precise counts and uncertainty estimates in small datasets, even with expert opinions.
Wasserstein Dropout improves uncertainty estimation in neural networks.
problem Estimating neural uncertainties for safe machine learning.
method A purely non-parametric approach using dropout-based sub-network distributions and Wasserstein distance.
result Wasserstein Dropout outperforms state-of-the-art methods in uncertainty estimation.
Study uses non-parametric method to analyze EU ETS price determinants.
problem Understanding price determinants of EU ETS to inform policy.
method Non-parametric measure (Information Imbalance) to study variables.
result Commodity variables are most informative in Phase 3, while financial variables become more important in Phase 4.
Many real-world regression problems demand a measure of the uncertainty associated with each prediction. Standard decision forests deliver efficient state-of-the-art predictive performance, but high-quality uncertainty estimates are lacking. Gaussian processes (GPs) deliver uncertainty estimates, but scaling GPs to lar…
Many applications of classification methods not only require high accuracy but also reliable estimation of predictive uncertainty. However, while many current classification frameworks, in particular deep neural networks, achieve high accuracy, they tend to incorrectly estimate uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a …
A GAN method for stochastic boundary conditions in fast dynamics.
problem Uncertainty quantification in fast dynamics and wave propagation.
method Physics-informed GANs for stochastic boundary conditions.
result Improved convergence and better stochastic boundary conditions.
Bayesian model captures mean and variance of response variables.
problem Complex, predictor-dependent relationships and heteroscedastic patterns in data.
method Sum-of-tessellations for mean, product-of-tessellations for variance.
result Model captures nuanced variance structures and provides reliable predictive uncertainty.
NeuralSurv models survival analysis with Bayesian uncertainty.
problem Capturing time-varying risk relationships in survival analysis.
method Two-stage data-augmentation scheme, mean-field variational algorithm, coordinate-ascent updates, locally linearized Bayesian neural network.
result Delivers superior calibration compared to state-of-the-art models.
A new method uses Gaussian Processes to solve power flow problems with uncertain renewable and load inputs.
problem Solving power flow problems with uncertain renewable and load inputs.
method Non-parametric Bayesian inference-based uncertainty propagation using Gaussian Processes.
result The method provides reasonably accurate solutions with fewer samples and time compared to Monte-Carlo simulations.
A new loss function improves uncertainty estimation in neural networks.
problem Uncertainty quantification in neural networks, especially for regression tasks.
method Second-moment loss (SML) to optimize model variance alongside mean prediction.
result SML leads to comparable prediction accuracies and uncertainty estimates with a single model.
New model improves deep learning robustness against adversarial attacks.
problem Improving adversarial robustness of deep learning models.
method Local competition principle, LWTA nonlinearities, Bayesian non-parametrics.
result The new model achieves high robustness to adversarial perturbations on MNIST and CIFAR10 datasets.
Proposes a sample-efficient method for uncertainty estimation in deep learning.
problem Inaccurate uncertainty estimation in deep learning models, especially with limited data.
method Probabilistic Neighbourhood Component Analysis (PCA) for sample-efficient uncertainty estimation.
result Demonstrates superior uncertainty quantification compared to state-of-the-art methods.
Researchers quantify risk exposure and sensitivities in financial markets under model uncertainty.
problem Optimizing investment and pricing under model uncertainty in financial markets.
method Distributionally robust optimization, Wasserstein ball, first-order sensitivity analysis.
result Sensitivities of value function, investment policy, and marginal prices to model uncertainty can be non-monotonic.
Paper tackles selective regression using uncertainty estimation.
problem Selective regression for machine learning models to avoid predictions when uncertain.
method Model-agnostic non-parametric uncertainty estimation.
result Superior performance compared to state-of-the-art selective regressors.
Unified theory of optimal transport for random measures.
problem Statistical uncertainty in optimal transport.
method Constructing L2 over Wasserstein space for random probability measures. result Unified treatment of random optimal transport and principled inference.
The paper develops methods to assess and correct model uncertainties in graphical models.
problem Model uncertainty in probabilistic graphical models.
method Information-theoretic and non-parametric stress tests.
result Ranking and correcting impactful sources of uncertainty in graphical models.
Graph convolutional neural networks (GCNN) have been successfully applied to many different graph based learning tasks including node and graph classification, matrix completion, and learning of node embeddings. Despite their impressive performance, the techniques have a limited capability to incorporate the uncertaint…
This work develops rigorous theoretical basis for the fact that deep Bayesian neural network (BNN) is an effective tool for high-dimensional variable selection with rigorous uncertainty quantification. We develop new Bayesian non-parametric theorems to show that a properly configured deep BNN (1) learns the variable im…
New method for accurate uncertainty estimation in deep learning predictions.
problem Insufficient methods for assessing prediction uncertainty in deep learning.
method Valid non-parametric bootstrap method for deep neural networks.
result Accurate confidence intervals and simultaneous confidence bands for survival data.
Estimating global pairwise interaction effects, i.e., the difference between the joint effect and the sum of marginal effects of two input features, with uncertainty properly quantified, is centrally important in science applications. We propose a non-parametric probabilistic method for detecting interaction effects of…
TACTiS models time series uncertainty with transformer attention.
problem Estimating predictive uncertainty in high-dimensional multivariate time series.
method Transformer-Attentional Copulas using attention-based decoder.
result TACTiS produces state-of-the-art predictions on real-world datasets.
This tutorial simplifies Gaussian process regression for beginners.
problem Understanding Gaussian process regression for machine learning.
method Explains basic concepts, provides a concise GPR description, and reviews implementation packages.
result Clear understanding of Gaussian process regression fundamentals.
This paper proposes methods to compute differentially private confidence intervals for the median.
problem Ensuring privacy in statistical inference for the median.
method Directly estimating interval bounds for the median under differential privacy constraints.
result The proposed methods provide valid differentially private confidence intervals for the median.
Gaussian processes with differential privacy protect both inputs and outputs.
problem Previous DP methods only protected model outputs, not inputs.
method Sparse GP with private variational approximation, adjusting covariance for DP noise.
result Accurate models can be produced under strong privacy protection with sufficient data.
Capsule Networks attempt to represent patterns in images in a way that preserves hierarchical spatial relationships. Additionally, research has demonstrated that these techniques may be robust against adversarial perturbations. We present an improvement to training capsule networks with added robustness via non-paramet…
In many applications (in particular information systems, such as pattern recognition, machine learning, cheminformatics, bioinformatics to name but a few) the assessment of uncertainty is essential - i.e., the estimation of the underlying probability distribution function. More often than not, the form of this function…
Researchers use Gaussian Process Regression to improve accuracy of a low-cost hot-wire anemometer.
problem Improving accuracy of low-cost hot-wire anemometers in varying temperatures.
method Probabilistic calibration using Gaussian Process Regression.
result The method provides good performance in estimating actual wind speeds, including uncertainty.
Proposes a Bayesian federated learning method for diverse tasks.
problem Current federated learning approaches focus on homogeneous tasks, ignoring task diversity.
method Integrates multi-task learning with MOGP at the local level and federated learning at the global level.
result Demonstrates superior predictive performance and uncertainty calibration on diverse tasks.
Treeffuser predicts tabular data distributions using gradient-boosted trees.
problem Probabilistic prediction with flexible, non-parametric models.
method Gradient-boosted trees for score estimation in conditional diffusion model.
result Treeffuser outperforms existing methods in probabilistic prediction tasks.
Estimates individualized treatment effects using shared RBF-net neurons.
problem Identifying differential treatment effects based on covariates.
method Non-parametric radial basis function (RBF)-nets with shared hidden neurons in a Bayesian framework.
result Demonstrated through simulations and real data, the method identifies interesting treatment effects.
Single neuron learns predictive uncertainty in deep learning models.
problem Uncertainty estimation in deep learning models, especially with respect to model specification and training procedure.
method Introduces a non-parametric quantile estimation method using a single neuron.
result The method achieves competitive predictive uncertainty quantification quality and coverage compared to state-of-the-art solutions.
In this paper, we develop an efficient nonparametric Bayesian estimation of the kernel function of Hawkes processes. The non-parametric Bayesian approach is important because it provides flexible Hawkes kernels and quantifies their uncertainty. Our method is based on the cluster representation of Hawkes processes. Util…
Scalable algorithm for sampling Gaussian processes using sparse grids and preconditioners.
problem Generating high-dimensional Gaussian random vectors for GP sampling is computationally challenging.
method Proposes a scalable algorithm using inducing points approximation with sparse grids and additive Schwarz preconditioners.
result Demonstrates the efficacy and accuracy of the proposed method through experiments and comparisons.
Improves reliability diagrams for probabilistic forecasts.
problem Lack of stability in reliability diagrams hampered their use.
method CORP approach using non-parametric isotonic regression and PAV algorithm.
result Improved reliability diagrams with statistical consistency and reproducibility.
New approach to topic modelling with covariates for large text corpora.
problem Complex topic modelling in large text corpora.
method Combining convex NMF with regression for tractable estimation.
result Faster, interpretable, and better inferential justification than generative models.
IQ-BART models conditional quantiles using a non-parametric Bayesian approach.
problem Capturing multimodal predictive distributions in time series forecasting.
method Implicit Quantile BART (IQ-BART) augments data with quantile values for non-parametric quantile function estimation.
result IQ-BART provides flexible distribution-free regression with theoretical guarantees.
In this paper, we treat the problem of evaluating the asymptotic error in a numerical integration scheme as one with inherent uncertainty. Adding to the growing field of probabilistic numerics, we show that Gaussian process regression (GPR) can be embedded into a numerical integration scheme to allow for (i) robust sel…
Accounting for the non-normality of asset returns remains challenging in robust portfolio optimization. In this article, we tackle this problem by assessing the risk of the portfolio through the "amount of randomness" conveyed by its returns. We achieve this by using an objective function that relies on the exponential…