A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
We introduce the Randomized Dependence Coefficient (RDC), a measure of non-linear dependence between random variables of arbitrary dimension based on the Hirschfeld-Gebelein-Rényi Maximum Correlation Coefficient. RDC is defined in terms of correlation of random non-linear copula projections; it is invariant with respec…
In the last years efforts in econophysics have been shifted to study how network theory can facilitate understanding of complex financial markets. Main part of these efforts is the study of correlation-based hierarchical networks. This is somewhat surprising as the underlying assumptions of research looking at financia…
In this paper we briefly review the recently inrtroduced Multifractal Random Walk (MRW) that is able to reproduce most of recent empirical findings concerning financial time-series : no correlation between price variations, long-range volatility correlations and multifractal statistics. We then focus on its extension t…
Financial markets are complex adaptive systems, and are commonly studied as complex networks. Most of such studies fall short in two respects: they do not account for non-linearity of the studied relationships, and they create one network for the whole studied time series, providing an average picture of a very long, e…
Financial time series exhibit two different type of non linear correlations: (i) volatility autocorrelations that have a very long range memory, on the order of years, and (ii) asymmetric return-volatility (or `leverage') correlations that are much shorter ranged. Different stochastic volatility models have been propos…
ChatGPT predicts stock market movements based on Bloomberg headlines, showing a positive correlation over short to medium terms.
problem Predicting stock market movements using news headlines.
method Used a two-stage prompt approach with a dataset of Bloomberg market summaries from 2010 to 2023.
result ChatGPT's sentiment scores correlate positively with future equity market returns over short to medium terms, with a negative correlation over longer horizons.
Improved control approach for correlated bandits with better performance.
problem General multi-armed bandit problem with correlated elements.
method Introducing entropy regularisation to obtain a smooth asymptotic approximation of the value function, leading to a semi-index approximation of the optimal decision process.
result Performance of Asymptotic Randomised Control (ARC) algorithm compares favorably with other approaches.
In this article we analyse linear correlation and non-linear dependence of traded volume, v, of the 30 constituents of Dow Jones Industrial Average at different value scales. Specifically, we have raised v to some real value α or β, which introduces a bias for small (α,β<0) or large (α,β>1) values. Our r…
Non-linear image reconstruction and signal analysis deal with complex inverse problems. To tackle such problems in a systematic way, I present information field theory (IFT) as a means of Bayesian, data based inference on spatially distributed signal fields. IFT is a statistical field theory, which permits the construc…
Most data is multi-dimensional. Discovering whether any subset of dimensions, or subspaces, of such data is significantly correlated is a core task in data mining. To do so, we require a measure that quantifies how correlated a subspace is. For practical use, such a measure should be universal in the sense that it capt…
We study the dynamics of the linear and non-linear serial dependencies in financial time series in a rolling window framework. In particular, we focus on the detection of episodes of statistically significant two- and three-point correlations in the returns of several leading currency exchange rates that could offer so…
We investigate the behavior of stocks in daily price-limited stock markets by purposing a quantum spatial-periodic harmonic model. The stock price is presumed to oscillate and damp in a quantum spatial-periodic harmonic oscillator potential well. Complicated non-linear relations including inter-band positive correlatio…
We introduce two types of ordinal pattern dependence between time series. Positive (resp. negative) ordinal pattern dependence can be seen as a non-paramatric and in particular non-linear counterpart to positive (resp. negative) correlation. We show in an explorative study that both types of this dependence show up in …
Wiener-Granger causality is a widely used framework of causal analysis for temporally resolved events. We introduce a new measure of Wiener-Granger causality based on kernelization of partial canonical correlation analysis with specific advantages in the context of large high-dimensional data. The introduced measure is…
The distribution of the return intervals τ between volatilities above a threshold q for financial records has been approximated by a scaling behavior. To explore how accurate is the scaling and therefore understand the underlined non-linear mechanism, we investigate intraday datasets of 500 stocks which consist of …
In this paper we consider sparse and identifiable linear latent variable (factor) and linear Bayesian network models for parsimonious analysis of multivariate data. We propose a computationally efficient method for joint parameter and model inference, and model comparison. It consists of a fully Bayesian hierarchy for …