New study shows non-adaptive trials can be outperformed by adaptive designs in treatment selection.
problem Determining the best allocation of resources in clinical trials.
method Analysis of batched arm elimination designs and comparison with completely randomized trials.
result Simple adaptive designs universally and strictly dominate non-adaptive completely randomized trials for at least three treatment arms.
Sublinear algorithms detect cliques in graphs with high probability.
problem Detecting a planted clique in random graphs efficiently.
method Non-adaptive low-degree polynomial queries of adjacency matrix entries.
result Sublinear time detection is possible for a specific range of clique sizes.
Study learns random hypergraphs with queries, improving on previous results.
problem Learn random hypergraphs with non-adaptive queries.
method Equivalence to group testing, using Erdős-Rényi model for graphs.
result Generalization to random k k k -uniform hypergraphs. New protocols show 1-bit mean estimation can be order-optimal without interaction.
problem Can 1-bit mean estimation be optimal without interaction?
method Adaptive and non-adaptive threshold and interval queries, with one adaptive transition.
result Arbitrary non-adaptive quantizers can match the adaptive rate, suggesting interaction is not necessary.
Study shows rates for Laplacian-eigenmap methods in nonparametric regression.
problem Minimizing error in nonparametric regression using Laplacian-eigenmap.
method Adaptive and non-adaptive minimax rates using Sobolev space constraints.
result Extends minimax rates to various weighted Laplacian matrices.
Reward-poisoning attacks can force RL agents to learn bad policies, and we categorize and quantify their feasibility.
problem Reward-poisoning attacks can manipulate RL agents to learn undesirable policies.
method Categorize attacks by infinity-norm constraint, provide thresholds for feasibility, and develop adaptive attack strategies.
result Adaptive reward-poisoning attacks can achieve the nefarious policy in polynomial steps, while non-adaptive attacks require exponential steps.
In practice, the data distribution at test time often differs, to a smaller or larger extent, from that of the original training data. Consequentially, the so-called source classifier, trained on the available labelled data, deteriorates on the test, or target, data. Domain adaptive classifiers aim to combat this probl…
New algorithm reduces interventional strategy complexity for causal graph discovery.
problem Designing efficient interventional strategies for causal graph discovery.
method Developed an r-adaptive algorithm for causal graph discovery that minimizes the number of interventions.
result Achieved an approximation of O(min{r, log n} * n^{1/min{r, log n}}) for the verification number.
Machine learning predicts patient recruitment for clinical trials.
problem Improving patient recruitment prediction for clinical trials.
method Machine learning methods applied to historical clinical trial data.
result Reduced prediction error compared to current industry standards.
New bounds found for minimum tests needed in group testing.
problem Determining the minimum number of tests to detect defective items.
method Analyzing non-adaptive randomized algorithms for various group testing models.
result Tight bounds for the minimum number of tests and their limits.
New method infers viral load from pooled tests.
problem Inefficient viral load inference in pooled testing.
method Message passing algorithm with PCR noise function.
result Accurate viral load inference possible.
Doctor2Vec learns doctor representations from EHRs for better clinical trial recruitment.
problem Identifying the right doctors for clinical trials based on EHR data and trial descriptions.
method Dynamic Memory Network with attention mechanism to learn doctor and trial representations.
result Improved performance by up to 8.7% in PR-AUC on real-world trials and EHR data.
Combines trial and observational data to improve policy evaluation.
problem External validity of randomized trial results in target populations.
method Uses covariate data to model trial sampling and certifies policy evaluations.
result Valid trial-based policy evaluations under model miscalibration.
New algorithm solves stochastic optimization problems with unknown gradients.
problem Solving nonlinear optimization problems with stochastic objectives and deterministic constraints.
method Adaptive SQP with differentiable exact augmented Lagrangian and stochastic line search.
result Global convergence established for both non-adaptive and adaptive SQP methods.
Optimizes group testing for COVID-19 to reduce test numbers.
problem Minimizing tests for accurate infection detection.
method Bayesian approach with genetic algorithms and sub-modularity.
result Greedy-adaptive method provides theoretical guarantees.
MILCCI integrates labels across categories for better understanding of multi-trial data.
problem Understanding how labels encode multi-trial observations and disentangling their effects.
method Sparse per-trial decomposition leveraging label similarities within each category.
result MILCCI identifies interpretable components and integrates label information.
New algorithms learn MNL weights efficiently for any slate size.
problem Efficiently learn weights for MNL models given query access.
method Two algorithms: adaptive and non-adaptive, with specific query complexities.
result Optimal query complexities for both adaptive and non-adaptive cases.
The paper compares methods for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects using multiple randomized trials.
problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects reliably and precisely with a single dataset is challenging.
method Non-parametric approaches for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects using data from multiple trials.
result Methods that directly allow for heterogeneity of the treatment effect across trials perform better than those that do not.
Adaptive sampling results in dramatic improvements in the recovery of sparse signals in white Gaussian noise. A sequential adaptive sampling-and-refinement procedure called Distilled Sensing (DS) is proposed and analyzed. DS is a form of multi-stage experimental design and testing. Because of the adaptive nature of the…
C3T-Budget optimizes drug efficacy in dose-finding trials with budget and safety constraints.
problem Heterogeneous patient populations and budget constraints make dose-finding clinical trials challenging.
method Contextual constrained clinical trial algorithm that maximizes drug efficacy while learning subgroup responses.
result Demonstrates efficient budget usage and balanced learning-treatment trade-off in simulated trials.
New method detects biomarker-treatment interactions in clinical trials.
problem Detecting interactions between high-dimensional biomarkers and treatments in randomized trials.
method Two-stage penalized regression screening using ridge regression for multivariate screening.
result Ridge regression screening provides greater power than traditional methods in correlated data.
The personalization of treatment via bio-markers and other risk categories has drawn increasing interest among clinical scientists. Personalized treatment strategies can be learned using data from clinical trials, but such trials are very costly to run. This paper explores the use of active learning techniques to desig…
QR-learner estimates individual treatment effects using external data.
problem Limited power to detect individual treatment effects in randomized trials.
method Model-agnostic learner that estimates conditional average treatment effects (CATE) using external data.
result QR-learner reduces mean squared error and can recover true CATE.
Bayesian BIC for multi-trial data improves VAR model order selection.
problem Optimal VAR model order selection for multi-trial event-based data.
method Derive and apply Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) for multi-trial ensemble data.
result Multi-trial BIC successfully recovers real model order and estimates small model order.
Optimum in Convex Hulls (OCH) generalizes clinical trial results to broader populations.
problem Clinical trials exclude confounding but limit recruitment; observational data are more inclusive but suffer from confounding.
method OCH uses convex hulls of conditional expectations or densities to approximate the true treatment effect from both observational and trial data.
result OCH estimates the treatment effect with state-of-the-art accuracy in terms of both expectations and densities.
Simpson's paradox can invalidate the results of medical trials if an unobserved variable is considered.
problem The validity of medical trial results can be invalidated by an unobserved confounding variable.
method Simulated controlled trials to demonstrate the paradox.
result The results of a trial can be reversed by including an unobserved confounding variable.
Causal analysis reveals regional discrepancies in TOPCAT trial results.
problem Inconclusive results in TOPCAT trial for heart failure treatment.
method Causal discovery methods with domain knowledge integration.
result Significant causal effects shown for some subgroups globally.
Adaptive data analysis is frequently criticized for its pessimistic generalization guarantees. The source of these pessimistic bounds is a model that permits arbitrary, possibly adversarial analysts that optimally use information to bias results. While being a central issue in the field, still lacking are notions of na…
The paper explores using historical data to improve clinical trial analysis by optimizing covariate weights.
problem Limited covariates in small clinical trials reduce the effectiveness of analysis.
method Leverage historical data to pre-specify covariate weights as a composite covariate.
result A composite covariate improves the cost/benefit ratio and reduces overfitting in small clinical trials.
SEEDA optimizes dose allocation in clinical trials to balance efficacy and safety.
problem Complex relationships between efficacy and toxicity in new drug trials.
method Adaptive clinical trial methodology that maximizes cumulative efficacy while ensuring safety constraints.
result SEEDA outperforms existing methods in finding optimal doses with higher success rates and fewer patients.
New methods improve subgroup analysis in trials with limited data.
problem Limited sample sizes in subgroup analyses of randomized controlled trials.
method Two TMLEs that borrow information from non-subgroup participants.
result Improved precision in subgroup-specific treatment effect estimates.
Recent breakthrough results in compressive sensing (CS) have established that many high dimensional signals can be accurately recovered from a relatively small number of non-adaptive linear observations, provided that the signals possess a sparse representation in some basis. Subsequent efforts have shown that the perf…
Syntax designs adaptive trials for subpopulations with potential benefits.
problem Identifying subpopulations with positive treatment effects in diverse patient populations.
method Adaptive patient recruitment and synthetic control estimation.
result Syntax outperforms conventional trial designs in identifying beneficial subpopulations.
Bayesian method improves clinical trial efficiency.
problem Increase treatment effect estimates in clinical trials.
method Combines prognostic covariate adjustment with a Bayesian framework.
result Substantial increase in statistical power with controlled type I error.
The P300 event-related potential (ERP), evoked in scalp-recorded electroencephalography (EEG) by external stimuli, has proven to be a reliable response for controlling a BCI. The P300 component of an event related potential is thus widely used in brain-computer interfaces to translate the subjects' intent by mere thoug…
The study optimizes free trial lengths to boost subscriptions and consumer loyalty.
problem Optimizing free trial lengths to maximize customer acquisition and retention.
method A large-scale field experiment with personalized policy design and evaluation.
result Personalized free trial policies outperform uniform trial lengths.
We show that for the problem of testing if a matrix A ∈ F n × n A \in F^{n \times n} A ∈ F n × n has rank at most d d d , or requires changing an ε ε ε -fraction of entries to have rank at most d d d , there is a non-adaptive query algorithm making O ~ ( d 2 / ε ) \widetilde{O}(d^2/ε) O ( d 2 / ε ) queries. Our algorithm works for any field F F F . This improves upon the previous…
New framework for adaptive clinical trials to address real-world challenges.
problem Real-world challenges in post-regulatory clinical trials.
method RFAN framework integrating regulatory constraints and treatment policy value.
result Empirical evaluation of RFAN's performance.
Adaptive networks improve model robustness through conditional normalization.
problem Limited robustness of adversarial-trained networks due to network capacity and training samples.
method Proposes a conditional normalization module to adapt networks during adversarial training.
result Adaptive networks outperform both clean validation accuracy and robustness compared to non-adaptive counterparts.
In domain adaptation, classifiers with information from a source domain adapt to generalize to a target domain. However, an adaptive classifier can perform worse than a non-adaptive classifier due to invalid assumptions, increased sensitivity to estimation errors or model misspecification. Our goal is to develop a doma…
Machine learning improves trial analysis precision by adjusting for prognostic variables.
problem Improving precision in randomized trial analyses using covariate adjustment.
method Targeted machine learning estimation (TMLE) with adaptive pre-specification.
result Maximized empirical efficiency through cross-validated variance minimization.
New methods improve causal inference generalization using trial and observational data.
problem Limited trial data makes generalizing causal inferences to target populations statistically infeasible.
method Develops algorithms that combine trial and observational data to estimate complex nuisance functions.
result Improves generalization of causal inferences when the additional observational study is high-quality.
TrialGraph uses graph machine learning to improve clinical trial design and predict side effects.
problem Complexity and cost in clinical trials hinder drug development.
method Curated clinical trial data set converted to graph-structured formats, applied graph machine learning algorithms.
result MetaPath2Vec algorithm performed exceptionally well, improving prediction accuracy.
New algorithm improves source separation with multi-trial supervision.
problem Non-convex optimization and interpretability of independent components.
method Proximal gradient-type algorithm in invertible matrices with backpropagation for joint learning.
result Increased success rate of non-convex optimization and improved interpretability.
Generative AI models improve clinical trial data by generating survival outcomes.
problem Generating valid survival outcomes for clinical trials with synthetic data.
method A variational autoencoder (VAE) that jointly generates mixed-type covariates and survival outcomes.
result The method outperforms GAN baselines on fidelity, utility, and privacy metrics.
A novel dose-finding design for cancer clinical trials using level set estimation.
problem Finding the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) in phase I cancer clinical trials.
method Proposes a novel dose-finding design based on level set estimation (LSE) to determine the next dose.
result The proposed LSE design achieves higher accuracy in estimating the MTD and lower risk of overdosing compared to existing designs.
Automated machine learning aims to automate the whole process of machine learning, including model configuration. In this paper, we focus on automated hyperparameter optimization (HPO) based on sequential model-based optimization (SMBO). Though conventional SMBO algorithms work well when abundant HPO trials are availab…
Adaptive methods produce less robust models to adversarial examples.
problem Robustness of machine learning models to adversarial examples.
method Comparison of adaptive and non-adaptive optimization methods in linear regression.
result Non-adaptive methods consistently produce more robust models.