Improved analysis for fair federated learning reduces dependence on noise floor.
problem Asymptotic stationarity in group fair federated learning with reduced noise floor dependence.
method DS FedProxGrad framework with inexact local proximal solutions and fairness regularization.
result Algorithm converges asymptotically to stationarity without dependence on a noise floor.
Stochastic differential equation approximation for linear TD(0) under Markovian noise
problem Temporal-difference learning with linear function approximation
method Stochastic differential equation approximation
result Explains the constant-stepsize error floor
We present novel empirical observations regarding how stochastic gradient descent (SGD) navigates the loss landscape of over-parametrized deep neural networks (DNNs). These observations expose the qualitatively different roles of learning rate and batch-size in DNN optimization and generalization. Specifically we study…
This paper analyzes M-estimators under infinite-variance noise in high dimensions.
problem High-dimensional M-estimation with infinite-variance noise.
method Study of the Fenchel conjugate domain and its impact on risk.
result Exact risk of M-estimators under infinite-variance noise is derived.
In this paper, we propose hybrid building/floor classification and floor-level two-dimensional location coordinates regression using a single-input and multi-output (SIMO) deep neural network (DNN) for large-scale indoor localization based on Wi-Fi fingerprinting. The proposed scheme exploits the different nature of th…
The paper analyzes Adam and SGD in nonstationary optimization, revealing tradeoffs between noise and drift.
problem Analyzing Adam and SGD in nonstationary optimization problems.
method Theoretical analysis of Adam and SGD under non-stationary stochastic objectives, separating two regimes.
result Characterizes the tradeoff between noise and drift in Adam and SGD, revealing when adaptive step-sizing is beneficial or harmful.
One of the key technologies for future large-scale location-aware services covering a complex of multi-story buildings --- e.g., a big shopping mall and a university campus --- is a scalable indoor localization technique. In this paper, we report the current status of our investigation on the use of deep neural network…
Fast, reliable, and error-bounded option pricing with neural networks
problem Fast, reliable, and error-bounded option pricing
method Mixture Density Network
result Out-of-sample CDF error of 1.4imes10−4 Informed traders need to trade fast in order to profit from their private information before it becomes public. Fast electronic markets provide such liquidity. Slow markets provide execution in an auction based trading floor. Hybrid markets combine both execution venues. In its main result, the paper shows that to comp…
We study the portfolio selection problem of a long-run investor who is maximising the asymptotic growth rate of her expected utility. We show that, somewhat surprisingly, it is essentially not affected by introduction of a floor constraint which requires the wealth process to dominate a given benchmark at all times. We…
The paper decomposes unsupervised learning's generalization error into model, data, and variance components.
problem Understanding the components of unsupervised learning's generalization error.
method Information-geometric decomposition of the Kullback-Leibler generalization error.
result The optimal rank in ε-PCA is the noise floor, balancing model-error gain and data-bias cost. Consider an agent who enters a financial market on day t = 0 with an initial capital amount x. He invests this amount on stocks and the money market, and by day t = T, has generated a wealth W . He is given a convex class of probability measures (called scenarios) and a real-valued function (or floors) corresponding to…
The paper develops a theory for random forests, separating variance components and providing methods for estimating prediction intervals.
problem Understanding the variance and uncertainty in random forest predictions.
method Design-based theory, Monte Carlo averaging, PASR resampling.
result The floor of prediction uncertainty is positive and persists even without observation overlap, providing conservative prediction intervals.
Optimal machine learning requires interpolating training data in high-dimensional linear regression.
problem Achieving optimal predictive risk in overparameterized linear regression models.
method Analyzing proportional asymptotics of random design and label noise variance.
result Optimal performance in linear regression requires fitting training data to higher accuracy than inherent noise.
CWGD measures gradient diversity weighted by curvature, improving SGD convergence.
problem Gradient noise in high-curvature directions is underestimated by standard methods.
method CWGD weights gradient diversity by the inverse square root of the Hessian.
result CWGD-Cosine reduces optimization error by up to 20% compared to standard cosine annealing.
EdgeLite detects hazardous supermarket floors, improving safety.
problem Detecting hazardous conditions on supermarket floors to prevent injuries.
method Developed a lightweight deep learning model, EdgeLite, for edge devices.
result EdgeLite outperformed state-of-the-art models in detecting hazards on supermarket floors.
Algorithm speeds up search for stationary targets with guaranteed accuracy.
problem Minimize search time while ensuring high detection accuracy of stationary targets.
method Multi-fidelity Gaussian process model and EMTS algorithm.
result Guaranteed performance in target detection accuracy and search time.
We determine the price of digital double barrier options with an arbitrary number of barrier periods in the Black-Scholes model. This means that the barriers are active during some time intervals, but are switched off in between. As an application, we calculate the value of a structure floor for structured notes whose …
The study uses machine learning to analyze office floor plans and predict function based on geometry.
problem Lack of formalisms to describe spatial affordance in automated floor-plan generation tools.
method Supervised and unsupervised data mining techniques, including J48 algorithm, were used to analyze office floor plans.
result J48 algorithm can predict class performance on unseen examples up to 79.5% for office dataset.
New tensor recovery method uses Riemannian optimization on Segre manifold.
problem Recovering low-rank tensors from noisy measurements.
method Riemannian Gradient Descent (RGD) and Riemannian Gauss-Newton (RGN) algorithms over the Segre manifold.
result Proven convergence rates for RGD and RGN under mild noise assumptions.
Enhances ocean floor mapping with adaptive uncertainty estimates.
problem Inaccurate bathymetric data for precise ocean modeling.
method Block-based conformal prediction with VQ-VAE architecture.
result Significant improvements in reconstruction quality and uncertainty estimation reliability.
A hierarchical Bayesian classifier is trained at pixel scale with spectral data from the CRISM (Compact Reconnaissance Imaging Spectrometer for Mars) imagery. Its utility in detecting rare phases is demonstrated with new geologic discoveries near the Mars-2020 rover landing site. Akaganeite is found in sediments on the…
This paper develops nudging algorithms using learned surrogates for state estimation in dynamical systems.
problem Estimating the state of a dynamical system from partial observations when dynamics are unknown or expensive to simulate.
method Unified finite-dimensional analysis of nudging algorithms employing learned surrogate models of the dynamics.
result Nudging algorithms with surrogate models retain exponential convergence up to an explicit error floor.
Develops a new framework for perpetual futures on binary prediction markets.
problem Lack of effective risk management in perpetual futures on binary prediction markets.
method PIRAP framework with six components: index estimator, margin sizing, leverage, funding rule, halt protocol, and eligibility framework.
result Mixed results from empirical evaluation, with some pre-registered floors passing and others failing.
This paper considers the classification of linear subspaces with mismatched classifiers. In particular, we assume a model where one observes signals in the presence of isotropic Gaussian noise and the distribution of the signals conditioned on a given class is Gaussian with a zero mean and a low-rank covariance matrix.…
A training-free conformal interval is a mandatory baseline for probabilistic time-series forecasting.
problem Comparing probabilistic forecasters against weak or omitted baselines.
method A simple conformal interval with no parameters and no training.
result The ConformalNaive interval decisively beats several baselines.
New network approximates functions with error decreasing with network width and depth.
problem Approximating functions with high-dimensional data.
method Floor-ReLU networks with specific width and depth.
result Approximation error decreases as network width and depth increase.
We present ErasureHead, a new approach for distributed gradient descent (GD) that mitigates system delays by employing approximate gradient coding. Gradient coded distributed GD uses redundancy to exactly recover the gradient at each iteration from a subset of compute nodes. ErasureHead instead uses approximate gradien…
The study bounds exceptional surgeries for hyperbolic knots.
problem Identifying the range of slopes for exceptional surgeries.
method Analyzing meridional and non-meridional surgeries, and investigating the relationship between boundary slopes and exceptional surgeries.
result There are boundary slopes b1<b2 such that all non-trivial exceptional surgeries occur in the interval [b1,b2]. The integers in $[\ceil{b_1}, \floor{b_2}]$ are all exceptional surgeries. Study efficient power iteration for tensor models, proving convergence under specific conditions.
problem Simultaneous alternating power iteration for fixed-order asymmetric rank-one spiked tensor models.
method Finite-iteration local theory, geometrically decaying transient, fixed-order multilinear noise event, warm-start mechanism.
result Convergence to the unique informative local fixed point under specific conditions.
The relationships between braid ordering and the geometry of its closure is studied. We prove that if an essential closed surface F in the complements of closed braid has relatively small genus with respect to the Dehornoy floor of the braid, F is circular-foliated in a sense of Birman-Menasco's Braid foliation the…
Efficient dispatching rule in manufacturing industry is key to ensure product on-time delivery and minimum past-due and inventory cost. Manufacturing, especially in the developed world, is moving towards on-demand manufacturing meaning a high mix, low volume product mix. This requires efficient dispatching that can wor…
Three-hidden-layer neural networks can approximate Hölder continuous functions uniformly with exponential rate.
problem Approximating Hölder continuous functions with neural networks.
method Introduced Floor-Exponential-Step (FLES) networks with three hidden layers.
result Uniform approximation of Hölder continuous functions with an exponential rate.
We propose a novel methodology, forest floor, to visualize and interpret random forest (RF) models. RF is a popular and useful tool for non-linear multi-variate classification and regression, which yields a good trade-off between robustness (low variance) and adaptiveness (low bias). Direct interpretation of a RF model…
Language models allocate information storage, not collapsing into uniform representations.
problem Incomplete neural collapse in language model representations.
method Analyzing variance and information sharing across 14 models, proving an information floor.
result Within-class variance is allocated information storage, not collapsed into uniform representations.
Optimizer memory affects learning rate sensitivity in shuffle order, impacting fine-tuning noise.
problem Optimizer memory affects the learning rate sensitivity in shuffle order, leading to fine-tuning noise.
method Isolated the mechanism of fixed-clock optimizer memory affecting the learning rate sensitivity in shuffle order, deriving a fit-free way to size the noise.
result Fixed-clock optimizers like AdamW produce a larger first-order noise channel compared to memoryless optimizers, affecting fine-tuning comparisons.
New method predicts and optimizes matrix recovery from noisy measurements.
problem Recovering rank-1 matrices from Gaussian measurements with noise.
method Stochastic prox-linear iterative algorithm with trajectory predictions.
result The method converges linearly with accurate predictions of error.
New model estimates indoor radon distribution with higher spatial resolution.
problem Accurate estimation of indoor radon concentration for health assessment.
method Quantile regression forest and probabilistic Monte Carlo sampling.
result Approximate lognormal distribution of indoor radon in Germany with specific exceedance probabilities.
Newly available data on the spatial distribution of retail activities in cities makes it possible to build models formalized at the level of the single retailer. Current models tackle consumer location choices at an aggregate level and the opportunity new data offers for modeling at the retail unit level lacks a theore…
The genus of knots is a one of the fundamental invariant and can be seen as a complexity of knots. In this paper, we give a lower bound of genus using Dehornoy floor, which is a measure of complexity of braids in terms of braid ordering.
The paper uses Bayesian Surprise to identify unexpected structures in indoor environments.
problem Identifying unexpected structures in indoor environments.
method Bayesian Surprise applied to Isovist Analysis of 2D floor plans.
result Surprise regions in indoor environments can be used to focus on important areas in LBS.
Unified Bayesian framework for LTV system identification using neural networks and Gaussian Processes.
problem Identifying Linear Time-Varying systems from input-output data.
method Bayesian modeling of impulse response as a stochastic process, using neural networks and Gaussian Processes for inference.
result Framework can infer LTI system properties from a single noisy input-output pair, achieving lower error than classical methods.
AdaQuantFL reduces communication in federated learning by adaptively quantizing model updates.
problem Efficient communication of model updates in federated learning with high-dimensional models and limited bandwidth.
method AdaQuantFL uses adaptive quantization to reduce the number of bits for model updates while maintaining low error floor.
result AdaQuantFL converges in fewer communicated bits compared to fixed quantization levels, with minimal impact on accuracy.
Study variance-optimal hedging of forward curve derivatives under stochastic volatility.
problem Variance-optimal hedging of forward curve derivatives with stochastic volatility.
method Assumes HJM-Musiela dynamics modulated by stochastic covariance, uses Galtchouk-Kunita-Watanabe projection.
result Density of finite-maturity strategies, convergence of finite-rank projections, decomposition of hedging error.
A framework for cost of belief revision in uncertain agents.
problem Cost of revising beliefs in uncertain agents.
method Axiomatic framework for transport-based belief costs, postulates P0 and P1.
result Cost metric is conformally reweighted by Fisher information, leading to a cost floor diverging at certainty.
Near-interpolating models grow norms quickly, affecting generalization.
problem Understanding the trade-off between interpolation and generalization in near-interpolating models.
method Random matrix theory and eigendecay analysis of data covariance matrix.
result Near-interpolating models exhibit rapid norm growth and worse generalization trade-offs.
Study proposes explainable analytics for manufacturing process planning.
problem Improving data-driven decision-making in manufacturing.
method Combines process mining, machine learning, and XAI. Uses deep learning for prediction and Shapley values/ICE plots for explanations.
result Enhanced decision-making capabilities through local post-hoc explanations.
Language models fail to process hallucinated responses, and this study diagnoses the failure.
problem Language models fail to process hallucinated responses, leading to over-concentration or diffuse attention.
method The study uses forced scoring of benchmark-labeled responses to compute attention shapes and analyze the symmetric component of the degree-normalized attention operator.
result The study proves that every transpose-invariant spectral diagnostic of the attention operator is orientation-blind and bounds the sensitivity of any Lipschitz diagnostic by the asymmetry coefficient \(G\).