A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Probabilistic bounds on neuron death in deep networks, showing depth can be increased indefinitely.
In this paper, we study the trainability of rectified linear unit (ReLU) networks. A ReLU neuron is said to be dead if it only outputs a constant for any input. Two death states of neurons are introduced; tentative and permanent death. A network is then said to be trainable if the number of permanently dead neurons is …
Neural networks with a large number of parameters admit a mean-field description, which has recently served as a theoretical explanation for the favorable training properties of "overparameterized" models. In this regime, gradient descent obeys a deterministic partial differential equation (PDE) that converges to a glo…
AI generates a sequence of death causes from hospital records.
Model predicts US COVID-19 deaths with quantile estimates.
Underlying cause of death coding from death certificates is a process that is nowadays undertaken mostly by humans with a potential assistance from expert systems such as the Iris software. It is as a consequence an expensive process that can in addition suffer from geospatial discrepancies, thus severely impairing the…
Machine learning predicts mask mandates reduce COVID-19 deaths.
Study shows death ratio of COVID-19 deaths increases financial volatility.
Recently we developed a new framework in Hirz et al (2015) to model stochastic mortality using extended CreditRisk methodology which is very different from traditional time series methods used for mortality modelling previously. In this framework, deaths are driven by common latent stochastic risk factors which may…
Study identifies clusters of EU countries with similar young mortality patterns.
We propose a general method to obtain approximation of the first passage time distribution for the birth-death processes. We rely on the general properties of birth-death processes, Keilson's theorem and the concept of Riemann sum to obtain closed-form expressions. We apply the method to the three selected birth-death …
Jointly models cause-of-death mortality rates across multiple countries and genders.
Study birth-death dynamics for sampling Gibbs measures with nonconvex potentials.
New method evaluates personalized treatment in critical care, robust to death.
We consider models of the population or opinion dynamics which result in the non-linear stochastic differential equations (SDEs) exhibiting the spurious long-range memory. In this context, the correspondence between the description of the birth-death processes as the continuous-time Markov chains and the continuous SDE…
Paper develops a new method to analyze 3D tree-like objects.
We find the optimal investment strategy for an individual who seeks to minimize one of four objectives: (1) the probability that his wealth reaches a specified ruin level {\it before} death, (2) the probability that his wealth reaches that level {\it at} death, (3) the expectation of how low his wealth drops below a sp…
In this paper, we focus on online representation learning in non-stationary environments which may require continuous adaptation of model architecture. We propose a novel online dictionary-learning (sparse-coding) framework which incorporates the addition and deletion of hidden units (dictionary elements), and is inspi…
A fundamental problem in Bayesian inference and statistical machine learning is to efficiently sample from multimodal distributions. Due to metastability, multimodal distributions are difficult to sample using standard Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We propose a new sampling algorithm based on a birth-death mechanis…
New method uses birth-death process and exploration component to accelerate sampling from multimodal distributions.
Patients who suffer an acute coronary syndrome are at elevated risk for adverse cardiovascular events such as myocardial infarction and cardiovascular death. Accurate assessment of this risk is crucial to their course of care. We focus on estimating a patient's risk of cardiovascular death after an acute coronary syndr…
In this paper we present a numerical valuation of variable annuities with combined Guaranteed Minimum Withdrawal Benefit (GMWB) and Guaranteed Minimum Death Benefit (GMDB) under optimal policyholder behaviour solved as an optimal stochastic control problem. This product simultaneously deals with financial risk, mortali…
Bayesian networks (BNs) are graphical models that are useful for representing high-dimensional probability distributions. There has been a great deal of interest in recent years in the NP-hard problem of learning the structure of a BN from observed data. Typically, one assigns a score to various structures and the sear…
Looking for associations among multiple variables is a topical issue in statistics due to the increasing amount of data encountered in biology, medicine and many other domains involving statistical applications. Graphical models have recently gained popularity for this purpose in the statistical literature. Following t…
Study quantifies how COVID-19 spread affects US stock markets.
In this paper we study the financial repercussions of the destruction of two fully armed and operational moon-sized battle stations ("Death Stars") in a 4-year period and the dissolution of the galactic government in Star Wars. The emphasis of this work is to calibrate and simulate a model of the banking and financial …
Study uses DNA methylation data to predict suicidal and non-suicidal deaths.
FS&P uses birth-death process to ensure global convergence of stochastic conic particle gradient descent.
This paper addresses the risk-minimization problem, with and without mortality securitization, à la Föllmer-Sondermann for a large class of equity-linked mortality contracts when no model for the death time is specified. This framework includes the situation where the correlation between the market model and the time o…
Recently, a marked Poisson process (MPP) model for life catastrophe risk was proposed in [6]. We provide a justification and further support for the model by considering more general Poisson point processes in the context of extreme value theory (EVT), and basing the choice of model on statistical tests and model compa…
Near a birth-death critical point in a one-parameter family of gradient flows, there are precisely two Morse critical points of index difference one on the birth side. This paper gives a self-contained proof of the folklore theorem that these two critical points are joined by a unique gradient trajectory up to time-shi…
Neuron Shapley identifies key neurons in deep networks, improving model accuracy and fairness.
New RL algorithm reduces regret in birth-death queueing problems.
Describes explaining neurons in deep representations using compositional logical concepts.
We consider probabilistic programming for birth-death models of evolution and introduce a new widely-applicable inference method that combines an extension of the alive particle filter (APF) with automatic Rao-Blackwellization via delayed sampling. Birth-death models of evolution are an important family of phylogenetic…
SeReNe prunes neurons with low sensitivity to reduce network size.
Under-parameterized networks can either copy or average teacher weights, leading to universal optimal solutions.
Modeling hidden neurons in SNNs using mesoscopic approximations.
Topological methods improve neuron analysis and tracer injection summary.
condLSTM-Q predicts COVID-19 deaths at county level with quantile forecasts.
Inspired by complexity and diversity of biological neurons, our group proposed quadratic neurons by replacing the inner product in current artificial neurons with a quadratic operation on input data, thereby enhancing the capability of an individual neuron. Along this direction, we are motivated to evaluate the power o…
We propose a new generic type of stochastic neurons, called -neurons, that considers activation functions based on Jackson's -derivatives with stochastic parameters . Our generalization of neural network architectures with -neurons is shown to be both scalable and very easy to implement. We demonstrate expe…
Study uses artificial counterfactuals to show lockdowns reduced US case and death counts.
It will be shown that according to theorems of K. Menger, every neuron grid if identified with a curve is able to preserve the adopted qualitative structure of a data space. Furthermore, if this identification is made, the neuron grid structure can always be mapped to a subset of a universal neuron grid which is constr…
Neural networks learn to mimic brain neurons with two-input activation functions, improving performance and robustness.
Unseen or out-of-domain data can seriously degrade the performance of a neural network model, indicating the model's failure to generalize to unseen data. Neural net pruning can not only help to reduce a model's size but can improve the model's generalization capacity as well. Pruning approaches look for low-salient ne…
CHANI learns classification tasks with local transformations inspired by biology.
Decision trees are flexible models that are well suited for many statistical regression problems. In a Bayesian framework for regression trees, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) search algorithms are required to generate samples of tree models according to their posterior probabilities. The critical component of such an …