Neural regression trees convert regression to classification more effectively.
problem Suboptimal approaches for regression via classification.
method Joint optimization framework for learning optimal discretization thresholds and feature selection in a neural regression tree.
result Empirically validated as state-of-the-art on challenging regression tasks.
TSN improves sparse signal recovery with less complexity.
problem Sparse regression problem of recovering sparse signals from measurements.
method Tree search algorithm driven by deep neural network with pruning.
result TSN outperforms conventional methods in various sensing matrices.
Regression trees learn gradients of differentiable functions.
problem Understanding gradients of differentiable functions using regression trees.
method Developed a method to estimate gradients of differentiable functions using regression trees and exposed quantities from tree learning libraries.
result Gradient estimates from regression trees can be used to improve predictive analysis and solve tasks in uncertainty quantification.
The paper introduces a framework for fair regression using kernel methods.
problem Incorporating fairness constraints in machine learning models.
method Kernel regression methods applied to Gaussian processes, SVMs, neural networks, and decision trees.
result The approach preserves the complexity of memory and computation and tightly bounds perturbations.
Given an ensemble of randomized regression trees, it is possible to restructure them as a collection of multilayered neural networks with particular connection weights. Following this principle, we reformulate the random forest method of Breiman (2001) into a neural network setting, and in turn propose two new hybrid p…
Paper introduces XBART for nonlinear regression, outperforming XGBoost.
problem Nonlinear regression problems, especially in speed and accuracy.
method Combines Bayesian modeling and recursive partitioning for efficient, accurate predictions.
result XBART provides faster and more accurate predictions than XGBoost.
Neural models can realize decision trees with parameter sharing and improved performance.
problem Training and optimizing oblique decision trees.
method Locally constant networks based on ReLU gradients, parameter sharing, and neural tools.
result Locally constant networks can implicitly model oblique decision trees with fewer neurons.
Paper studies ensemble probabilistic regression trees for smooth approximations.
problem Smooth approximations of regression functions.
method Ensemble versions of probabilistic regression trees.
result Ensemble probabilistic regression trees are consistent and perform well.
Neural-guided symbolic regression uses asymptotic constraints to find unknown functions.
problem Finding unknown functions from data points with additional mathematical constraints.
method A neural network generates expressions with desired leading powers, and Monte Carlo Tree Search optimizes the expressions.
result The system effectively finds unknown functions outside the training set compared to existing methods.
Bayesian GBMs improve predictive uncertainty calibration for tabular data.
problem Lack of well-calibrated predictive uncertainties in gradient boosting machines.
method Variational inference with soft decision trees.
result Variational soft GBMs provide useful uncertainty estimates and maintain good predictive performance.
Knowledge distillation simplifies deep models into interpretable decision trees.
problem Interpretability of deep neural networks is challenging and important for practical deployment.
method Knowledge distillation applied to transform deep models into decision trees.
result The student model achieves better accuracy than vanilla decision trees.
Proposes a deep tree-ensemble model for multi-output prediction.
problem Lack of efficient solutions for multi-output prediction.
method Integrates tree-embeddings into deep tree-ensembles for structured output prediction.
result Superior performance in multi-label classification and multi-target regression tasks.
SBT model uses randomized sharding and sub-models to improve Bayesian Additive Regression Trees.
problem Improving efficiency and accuracy of Bayesian Additive Regression Trees.
method Randomized sharding, sub-models, intersection tree structure, optimal design.
result Theoretical optimal weights and worst-case complexity of SBT model.
A new tree method for tensor data improves regression accuracy.
problem Efficiently modeling tensor data for regression problems.
method Scalar-output regression tree models for scalar-on-tensor problems, and tensor-on-tensor problems using additive tree ensemble approaches.
result The tensor-input tree (TT) method outperforms tensor-input GP models in efficiency and accuracy.
Deep neural networks and decision trees operate on largely separate paradigms; typically, the former performs representation learning with pre-specified architectures, while the latter is characterised by learning hierarchies over pre-specified features with data-driven architectures. We unite the two via adaptive neur…
Paper simplifies complex sports analytics models for better understanding.
problem Difficulty in interpreting deep learning models for sports analytics.
method Developed a linear model tree that mimics deep learning models and explains its knowledge.
result The linear model tree achieves high accuracy and provides actionable insights.
Ability for accurate hospital case cost modelling and prediction is critical for efficient health care financial management and budgetary planning. A variety of regression machine learning algorithms are known to be effective for health care cost predictions. The purpose of this experiment was to build an Azure Machine…
pGMM kernel outperforms ordinary ridge regression and RBF kernel ridge regression without tuning.
problem Comparing pGMM kernel regression with other ridge regression methods.
method Implemented and compared pGMM kernel regression with ordinary ridge regression and RBF kernel ridge regression.
result pGMM kernel performs well without tuning and can match boosted trees with parameter tuning.
BooST combines boosting and smooth trees for nonlinear regression.
problem Estimating partial effects in nonlinear models.
method Boosting smooth trees for partial effect estimation.
result BooST provides more interpretable partial effects than tree-based models.
BFTS uses Bayesian Additive Regression Trees for improved personalized mobile health interventions.
problem Adapting to complex, non-linear user behaviors in personalized mobile health interventions.
method Bayesian Forest Thompson Sampling (BFTS) integrates Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) into the exploration loop of contextual bandits.
result BFTS achieves state-of-the-art regret on tabular benchmarks and improves engagement rates by over 30% in a behavioral intervention study.
Transforms conditional density estimation into a nonparametric regression problem.
problem Conditional density estimation in high dimensions.
method Introduces auxiliary samples to transform into nonparametric regression.
result Estimator converges to true conditional density in data limit.
Piecewise-linear regression trees improve tree-based regression with theoretical and practical benefits.
problem Improving tree-based regression models with theoretical guarantees and practical tractability.
method Regularized piecewise-linear node-splitting criterion, LASSO-type and ℓ2 regularization, variable selection procedure. result New high-probability generalization error bounds for piecewise-linear regression trees.
Regression Trees analyze stock returns, revealing market excess return as the most informative factor.
problem Understanding informational content of three factors in stock returns.
method Joint regression tree analysis of daily stock return data for 5 major US corporations.
result The market excess return factor is always the most informative in all cases (solo and joint).
Ensemble of regression trees have become popular statistical tools for the estimation of conditional mean given a set of predictors. However, quantile regression trees and their ensembles have not yet garnered much attention despite the increasing popularity of the linear quantile regression model. This work proposes a…
Recently proposed budding tree is a decision tree algorithm in which every node is part internal node and part leaf. This allows representing every decision tree in a continuous parameter space, and therefore a budding tree can be jointly trained with backpropagation, like a neural network. Even though this continuity …
SMART combines decision trees and MARS for better regression modeling.
problem High variance in decision trees for continuous relationships, poor performance in MARS for discontinuities.
method SMART uses a decision tree to identify subsets with distinct continuous relationships, then applies MARS to fit these relationships independently.
result SMART improves regression performance over state-of-the-art methods in capturing discontinuities and continuous relationships.
The study compares weather prediction algorithms and finds Nexting performs well for slowly varying signals.
problem Comparing prediction algorithms for short-term weather forecasting.
method Evaluation of neural networks, regression trees, and Nexting on historical weather data.
result Nexting performed well for slowly varying signals with sufficient training data.
JSRT improves regression tree performance by incorporating global node information.
problem Regression tree performance relies on local node means, ignoring global node information.
method Proposes JSRT by integrating global mean information from different nodes.
result Demonstrates superior performance and efficiency compared to other regression tree methods.
Combines neural networks and decision trees for supervised learning.
problem Challenges in optimizing hierarchical parameters and constructing tree structures.
method Probabilistic approach with modified gradient ascent and adaptive tree construction.
result Novel classification and regression technique that combines strengths of neural networks and decision trees.
This paper improves forest pruning to balance accuracy and interpretability.
problem Limited interpretability of regression forests.
method Lasso-pruning and theoretical analysis of regression forests.
result Pruned regression forests can achieve equal or better accuracy than unpruned ones, with significant size reduction.
New trees-based models handle correlated data better.
problem Standard trees-based models ignore correlation structure.
method Explicitly accounts for correlation structure in splitting criterion, stopping rules, and fitted values.
result New approach superior to standard models in simulations and real data.
Integrates regression trees to explain latent factor models in recommendation systems.
problem Difficulty in explaining latent factor models in personalized recommendations.
method Builds regression trees on users and items using user-generated reviews to guide latent factor model learning and explain latent factors.
result Model generates explainable recommendations by tracking latent profiles through regression tree paths.
A new Bayesian Decision Tree algorithm for regression and classification.
problem Costly construction of Bayesian Decision Trees.
method General Bayesian Decision Tree algorithm without Markov Chain Monte Carlo or pruning.
result Greedy-modal tree explains most of the information in numerical examples.
New MCMC algorithm improves convergence of Bayesian regression trees.
problem Local mode stickiness and poor mixing in MCMC algorithms for Bayesian regression trees.
method Continuous-time birth-death MCMC algorithm for Bayesian regression tree models.
result The new algorithm dramatically improves convergence and mixing properties of MCMC.
Proposes a method to handle input uncertainties in regression trees.
problem Uncertainties in input variables in regression problems.
method Adapting standard regression trees to account for input uncertainties.
result The proposed method improves performance on data sets with input uncertainties.
GP-BART improves BART's predictive performance by incorporating Gaussian process priors.
problem Lack of smoothness and explicit covariance structure in BART.
method GP-BART extends BART with Gaussian process priors for tree predictions.
result GP-BART outperforms traditional models in various applications.
Multiple Additive Regression Trees (MART), an ensemble model of boosted regression trees, is known to deliver high prediction accuracy for diverse tasks, and it is widely used in practice. However, it suffers an issue which we call over-specialization, wherein trees added at later iterations tend to impact the predicti…
USNRT uses tree-structured learning to improve uncertainty quantification of variance networks.
problem Improving uncertainty quantification of variance networks.
method Tree-structured local neural network model that partitions feature space into regions for training region-specific neural networks to predict mean and variance.
result USNRT shows superior performance in estimating uncertainty with variances on UCI datasets compared to recent methods.
Survey of machine learning methods for time series forecasting.
problem Improving accuracy of time series predictions.
method Linear and nonlinear machine learning models, including neural networks and ensemble methods.
result Demonstrates superior predictive ability of certain machine learning models.
Enhances time-series regression trees with latent factors for robust financial analysis.
problem Handling predictors with measurement error, trends, seasonality, and missing data.
method Integrates latent stationary factors extracted via state-space methods into time-series regression trees.
result Factor-augmented trees provide a reliable approach for macro-finance problems, exemplified by the lead-lag effect between equity volatility and the business cycle.
We study the convergence of the predictive surface of regression trees and forests. To support our analysis we introduce a notion of adaptive concentration for regression trees. This approach breaks tree training into a model selection phase in which we pick the tree splits, followed by a model fitting phase where we f…
Bayesian Additive Regression Networks use neural networks for regression tasks.
problem Regression tasks with small neural networks and ensemble learning.
method Bayesian Additive Regression Tree principles applied to small neural networks, Gibbs sampling for ensemble learning.
result BARN provides more consistent and often more accurate results than shallow neural networks, BART, and ordinary least squares.
A new type of distributional regression tree uses soft split rules for better predictive performance.
problem Estimating complete conditional distributions in regression.
method Distributional adaptive soft regression trees using multivariate soft split rules.
result The method outperforms various benchmark methods, especially in complex non-linear interactions.
Stochastic Gradient Trees learn decision trees incrementally.
problem Learning decision trees using stochastic gradient information.
method Incremental learning setting, soft splits not used, new tree not constructed per update.
result Performs similarly to standard incremental classification trees, outperforms state of the art incremental regression trees, comparable to batch multi-instance learning methods.
This study converts BART to Gaussian process regression, revealing its limitations and potential improvements.
problem Understanding the Gaussian process limit of BART and its implications.
method Deriving and computing BART's prior covariance function, implementing the infinite trees limit as GP regression, and tuning hyperparameters.
result The Gaussian process limit of BART is inferior to standard BART but can be made competitive with proper hyperparameter tuning.
The paper uses regression trees/random forests to price Bermudan options more efficiently.
problem Pricing Bermudan options with conditional expectation estimation.
method Estimates conditional expectations using regression trees or random forests instead of traditional regression methods.
result Regression trees/random forests provide better results in high dimensions.
Electricity is bought and sold in wholesale markets at prices that fluctuate significantly. Short-term forecasting of electricity prices is an important endeavor because it helps electric utilities control risk and because it influences competitive strategy for generators. As the "smart grid" grows, short-term price fo…
In this paper, we investigate adaptive nonlinear regression and introduce tree based piecewise linear regression algorithms that are highly efficient and provide significantly improved performance with guaranteed upper bounds in an individual sequence manner. We use a tree notion in order to partition the space of regr…