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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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2895788671,156 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for neural Bayes estimators

Neural Empirical Bayes estimates source distributions from noisy simulations.

problem Estimating source distributions from noisy, simulated data.
method Uses neural density estimators to estimate a prior or source distribution over uncorrupted samples, then performs posterior inference.
result Recovering ground truth source distributions up to symmetries.

Graph neural networks extend neural Bayes estimators to irregular spatial data.

problem Estimating parameters from irregular spatial data with computational efficiency.
method Employing graph neural networks to approximate Bayes estimators for irregular spatial data.
result Extending neural Bayes estimation to irregular spatial data with computational benefits.

Neural Bayes methods simplify fitting complex bivariate extremal models.

problem Inference on complex multivariate extremal dependence models with computationally expensive likelihood functions.
method Use neural networks to approximate Bayes estimators and classifiers for model selection.
result Proposed neural Bayes methods enable routine implementation of complex extreme-value dependence models.

Efficient neural Bayes estimators for censored peaks-over-threshold models improve inference speed and accuracy.

problem Computational burden in inference with spatial extremal dependence models due to intractable or censored likelihoods.
method Developed neural Bayes estimators using data augmentation techniques to encode censoring information.
result Significant gains in computational and statistical efficiency compared to traditional methods.

Neural point estimators improve parameter estimation from replicated data.

problem Making inference from replicated data in weakly-identified and highly-parameterised models.
method Permutation-invariant neural networks for likelihood-free parameter estimation.
result Neural point estimators can quickly and optimally estimate parameters.

We explore the family of methods "PAC-Bayes with Backprop" (PBB) to train probabilistic neural networks by minimizing PAC-Bayes bounds. We present two training objectives, one derived from a previously known PAC-Bayes bound, and a second one derived from a novel PAC-Bayes bound. Both training objectives are evaluated o…

2019-08-19abs ↗pdf ↗

New method improves training stochastic neural networks with tighter guarantees.

problem Training stochastic neural networks with provable guarantees.
method Developed partially-aggregated estimators and reformulated PAC-Bayesian bounds.
result Derives a differentiable objective leading to tighter generalisation guarantees.

Evidence Networks simplify Bayesian model comparison for complex models.

problem Bayesian model comparison challenges with intractable likelihoods or priors.
method Loss functions and neural networks for fast, amortized estimation of Bayes factors.
result Evidence Networks provide accurate and scalable Bayes factor estimation.

Oracle inequality for sparse neural nets adapts to unknown structure.

problem Sparse deep neural nets in nonparametric regression.
method Gibbs posterior distribution with Metropolis-adjusted Langevin algorithms and mixture of uniform priors.
result Oracle inequality showing adaptation to unknown regularity and structure, achieving minimax-optimal rate of convergence.

Unified empirical and variational Bayes for unnormalized densities.

problem Approximating unnormalized densities using latent variable models.
method Formulate a latent variable model for Y=X+N(0,σ2Id)Y=X+N(0,σ^2 I_d), use ELBO as parametrization of YY's energy function, and estimate XX with empirical Bayes least-squares.
result UVB has higher capacity to approximate energy functions than MLPs in DEEN.

Accurate statistical models of neural spike responses can characterize the information carried by neural populations. But the limited samples of spike counts during recording usually result in model overfitting. Besides, current models assume spike counts to be Poisson-distributed, which ignores the fact that many neur…

2016-05-10abs ↗pdf ↗

Bayes posterior yields worse predictions than simpler methods in deep neural networks.

problem Understanding and improving predictive performance in Bayesian deep learning.
method Careful MCMC sampling and evaluation of cold posteriors.
result Cold posteriors yield significantly better predictive performance than the true Bayes posterior.

New estimators outperform maximum likelihood without hyper-parameter estimation.

problem Improving system identification performance without hyper-parameter estimation.
method Developed generalized Bayes and closed-form biased estimators using excess MSE.
result New estimators have comparable performance to empirical-Bayes-based regularized estimator.

SSNL improves simulation-based inference for high-dimensional data.

problem Performance degradation in neural likelihood estimation for high-dimensional data.
method Surjective Sequential Neural Likelihood (SSNL) using surjective normalizing flow models.
result SSNL avoids manual crafting of summary statistics and outperforms state-of-the-art methods.

We unify kernel density estimation\textit{kernel density estimation} and empirical Bayes\textit{empirical Bayes} and address a set of problems in unsupervised learning with a geometric interpretation of those methods, rooted in the concentration of measure\textit{concentration of measure} phenomenon. Kernel density is viewed symbolically as XYX\rightharpoonup Y where the rand…

2019-03-06abs ↗pdf ↗

Naive Bayes estimator is widely used in text classification problems. However, it doesn't perform well with small-size training dataset. We propose a new method based on Naive Bayes estimator to solve this problem. A correlation factor is introduced to incorporate the correlation among different classes. Experimental r…

2019-05-08abs ↗pdf ↗

Researchers estimate optimal PAC-Bayes bounds using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo.

problem Estimating tight PAC-Bayes bounds with restricted posterior families.
method Sampling from optimal Gibbs posterior using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, estimating KL divergence, and proposing high-probability bounds.
result Significant tightness gaps in PAC-Bayes bounds, up to 5-6% in some cases.

A new method estimates Bayes error for deep networks, suggesting they may have reached the limit.

problem Evaluating the performance of deep learning models and detecting overfitting.
method A simple and direct Bayes error estimator based on uncertainty of class assignments.
result Deep networks may have reached the Bayes error limit for benchmark datasets.

Bayes-TrEx finds in-distribution examples for model inspection.

problem Challenges in interpreting neural networks, especially high-confidence failures and ambiguous classifications.
method Bayesian sampling approach to find in-distribution examples with specified prediction confidence.
result Bayes-TrEx enables more flexible holistic model analysis than just inspecting the test set.

New method for high-dimensional linear regression using empirical Bayes.

problem Estimating prior in high-dimensional linear regression.
method Variational empirical Bayes approach with NPMLE and mean field approximation.
result Established asymptotic consistency and computational efficiency of the method.

Unified statistical framework for LSTM model selection.

problem Model selection and hyperparameter tuning in LSTM networks is heuristic and computationally expensive.
method Proposes a statistical framework extending classical model selection ideas to LSTM networks.
result Improved performance of the proposed framework demonstrated on biomedical data.

A new sequential method estimates Poisson means in streaming data, achieving optimality and efficiency.

problem Estimating Poisson means in a streaming, or online, framework.
method A quasi-Bayesian approach based on Newton's algorithm for a sequential estimate.
result Established frequentist guarantees including consistency and asymptotic optimality.

The paper analyzes high-dimensional linear regression using parametric empirical Bayes methods.

problem Estimation of i.i.d. priors in high-dimensional Bayesian linear regression with random design.
method Parametric empirical Bayes estimation, variational lower bound maximization, phase transition analysis.
result The vEB estimator is information theoretically optimal up to p=o(n2/3)p=o(n^{2/3}) but sub-optimal in higher dimensions.

A novel Bayesian computation method using importance weighting improves numerical stability and performance.

problem Bayesian computation stability and performance issues.
method Nonparametric approach via feature means, importance weighting, and kernel Bayes' rule.
result Importance weighted kernel Bayes' rule yields superior numerical stability and performance.

Bayesian neural networks' performance varies with prior choice, affecting their ability to identify unknowns.

problem The impact of prior choice on Bayesian neural networks' ability to identify unknowns.
method Evaluation of different prior distributions on classification tasks using BNNs and NNs with Monte Carlo dropout.
result Prior choice significantly impacts BNNs' ability to identify unknowns, affecting true and false positive rates.

New PAC-Bayes training method improves model generalization for unbounded loss.

problem Improving generalization of complex models under unbounded loss.
method Established new PAC-Bayes bound for unbounded loss, jointly training prior and posterior.
result Outperforms existing PAC-Bayes training algorithms and matches ERM accuracy.