A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The paper explores the relationship between joint mixability and negative dependence structures.
Non-negative matrix factorization is a basic tool for decomposing data into the feature and weight matrices under non-negativity constraints, and in practice is often solved in the alternating minimization framework. However, it is unclear whether such algorithms can recover the ground-truth feature matrix when the wei…
This study uses local Gaussian correlation to analyze stock return tails, revealing more sensitive network properties.
Study analyzes factors affecting capital adequacy in Bangladesh's banks.
Paper proves global convergence of NCELM model.
Stock correlations is crucial to asset pricing, investor decision-making, and financial risk regulations. However, microscopic explanation based on agent-based modeling is still lacking. We here propose a model derived from minority game for modeling stock correlations, in which an agent's expected return for one stock…
ETF approval boosts Bitcoin's correlation with equities, stabilizes with gold, and maintains negative correlation with fiat currencies.
Factorial moments are convenient tools in particle physics to characterize the multiplicity distributions when phase-space resolution () becomes small. They include all correlations within the system of particles and represent integral characteristics of any correlation between these particles. In this letter, we sh…
Estimates vaccine effectiveness and immune correlates in TND studies with missing data.
New methods improve cross-correlation analysis of time series data.
We propose a hierarchical correlation clustering method that extends the well-known correlation clustering to produce hierarchical clusters applicable to both positive and negative pairwise dissimilarities. Then, in the following, we study unsupervised representation learning with such hierarchical correlation clusteri…
The study finds significant power-law cross correlations in Bitcoin's return-volatility dynamics.
Proposes a flexible MGP model for dynamic, sparse correlations.
We study the relation between serial correlation of financial returns and volatility at intraday level for the S&P500 stock index. At daily and weekly level, serial correlation and volatility are known to be negatively correlated (LeBaron effect). While confirming that the LeBaron effect holds also at intraday level, w…
Antithetic noise improves diffusion models' uncertainty quantification.
Modeling correlated mutations in cancer for personalized treatment.
New model explains price dynamics of Bitcoin with psychological factors.
Biclustering is an unsupervised data mining technique that aims to unveil patterns (biclusters) from gene expression data matrices. In the framework of this thesis, we propose new biclustering algorithms for microarray data. The latter is done using data mining techniques. The objective is to identify positively and ne…
We introduce two types of ordinal pattern dependence between time series. Positive (resp. negative) ordinal pattern dependence can be seen as a non-paramatric and in particular non-linear counterpart to positive (resp. negative) correlation. We show in an explorative study that both types of this dependence show up in …
Statistical evaluations of the economic mobility of a society are more difficult than measurements of the income distribution, because they require to follow the evolution of the individuals' income for at least one or two generations. In micro-to-macro theoretical models of economic exchanges based on kinetic equation…
We study the impact of volatility on intraday serial correlation, at time scales of less than 20 minutes, exploiting a data set with all transaction on SPX500 futures from 1993 to 2001. We show that, while realized volatility and intraday serial correlation are linked, this relation is driven by unexpected volatility o…
We study power-law correlations properties of the Google search queries for Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) component stocks. Examining the daily data of the searched terms with a combination of the rescaled range and rescaled variance tests together with the detrended fluctuation analysis, we show that the searche…
With the random matrix theory, we study the spatial structure of the Chinese stock market, American stock market and global market indices. After taking into account the signs of the components in the eigenvectors of the cross-correlation matrix, we detect the subsector structure of the financial systems. The positive …
A new framework evaluates model performance on single input points, revealing insights into data and model structure.
The study shows interest rates impact investment and funding negatively but positively on dividend decisions.
TimeCNN improves forecasting by refining cross-variable interactions over time.
ChatGPT predicts stock market movements based on Bloomberg headlines, showing a positive correlation over short to medium terms.
Study shows economic policy uncertainty increases stock market crash risk during pandemic.
A possible data source for the estimation of asset correlations is default time series. This study investigates the systematic error that is made if the exposure pool underlying a default time series is assumed to be homogeneous when in reality it is not. We find that the asset correlation will always be underestimated…
Graph Canonical Correlation Analysis improves CCA for multiomics datasets.
We use the P&L on a particular class of swaps, representing variance and higher moments for log returns, as estimators in our empirical study on the S&P500 that investigates the factors determining variance and higher-moment risk premia. This class is the discretisation invariant sub-class of swaps with Neuberger's agg…
We perform an analysis of fractal properties of the positive and the negative changes of the German DAX30 index separately using Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MFDFA). By calculating the singularity spectra we show that returns of both signs reveal multiscaling. Curiously, these spectra display a s…
In this paper, we consider voxel selection for functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) brain data with the aim of finding a more complete set of probably correlated discriminative voxels, thus improving interpretation of the discovered potential biomarkers. The main difficulty in doing this is an extremely high di…
Financial markets are highly correlated systems that reveal both the inter-market dependencies and the correlations among their different components. Standard analyzing techniques include correlation coefficients for pairs of signals and correlation matrices for rich multivariate data. In the latter case one constructs…
GNCL algorithm controls diversity in deep ensembles.
Abstract result on correlations of pairs in exponentially growing discrete subsets.
A spin model relating physical to financial variables is presented. This work is the first to introduce the concept of negative absolute temperature into stock market dynamics by establishing a rigorous formal analogy between physical and financial variables. Based on this model, an algorithm evaluating negative temper…
We give a detailed account of correlations between credit sector/quality and treasury curve factors, using the robust framework of the Barclays POINT Global Risk Model. Consistent with earlier studies, we find a strong negative correlation between sector spreads and rate shifts. However, we also observe that the correl…
We investigate serial correlation, periodic, aperiodic and scaling behaviour of eigenmodes, i.e. daily price fluctuation time-series derived from eigenvectors, of correlation matrices of shares listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) from January 1993 to December 2002. Periodic, or calendar, components are dete…
Paper develops active learning for clustering unknown pairwise similarities.
In this paper we study the problem of correlation clustering under fairness constraints. In the classic correlation clustering problem, we are given a complete graph where each edge is labeled positive or negative. The goal is to obtain a clustering of the vertices that minimizes disagreements -- the number of negative…
This study investigates empirically whether the degree of stock market efficiency is related to the prediction power of future price change using the indices of twenty seven stock markets. Efficiency refers to weak-form efficient market hypothesis (EMH) in terms of the information of past price changes. The prediction …
Price without transaction makes no sense. Trading volume authenticates its corresponding price, so there exist mutual information and correlation between price and trading volume. We are curious about fractal features of this correlation and need to know how structures in different scales translate information. To expl…
We revisit the index leverage effect, that can be decomposed into a volatility effect and a correlation effect. We investigate the latter using a matrix regression analysis, that we call `Principal Regression Analysis' (PRA) and for which we provide some analytical (using Random Matrix Theory) and numerical benchmarks.…
LMMVAE improves VAE for correlated data by separating latent variables into fixed and random parts.
The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index, VIX, is calculated based on prices of out-of-the-money put and call options on the S&P 500 index (SPX). Sometimes called the "investor fear gauge," the VIX is a measure of the implied volatility of the SPX, and is observed to be correlated with the 30-day real…
Cross-sectional signatures of market panic were recently discussed on daily time scales in [1], extended here to a study of cross-sectional properties of stocks on intra-day time scales. We confirm specific intra-day patterns of dispersion and kurtosis, and find that the correlation across stocks increases in times of …
We review statistical properties of models generated by the application of a (positive and negative order) fractional derivative operator to a standard random walk and show that the resulting stochastic walks display slowly-decaying autocorrelation functions. The relation between these correlated walks and the well-kno…