We characterize the combinatorial structure of conditionally-i.i.d. sequences of negative binomial processes with a common beta process base measure. In Bayesian nonparametric applications, such processes have served as models for latent multisets of features underlying data. Analogously, random subsets arise from cond…
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48 results for “negative binomial processes”
Develops methods to construct exchangeable sequences of random multisets.
problem Creating models for random multisets with unknown base measures.
method Uses exchangeable sequences of point processes and conditional-i.i.d. negative binomial processes.
result Provides constructions for negative binomial processes with random base measures.
Transformer learns to estimate negative binomial parameters efficiently.
problem Parameter estimation for over-dispersed count data in large screens.
method Pre-trained transformer trained on synthetic data generation to invert parameter to count transformation.
result Method of moments provides faster, more efficient, and better-calibrated estimates.
We develop a Bayesian nonparametric approach to a general family of latent class problems in which individuals can belong simultaneously to multiple classes and where each class can be exhibited multiple times by an individual. We introduce a combinatorial stochastic process known as the negative binomial process (NBP)…
A beta-negative binomial (BNB) process is proposed, leading to a beta-gamma-Poisson process, which may be viewed as a "multi-scoop" generalization of the beta-Bernoulli process. The BNB process is augmented into a beta-gamma-gamma-Poisson hierarchical structure, and applied as a nonparametric Bayesian prior for an infi…
By developing data augmentation methods unique to the negative binomial (NB) distribution, we unite seemingly disjoint count and mixture models under the NB process framework. We develop fundamental properties of the models and derive efficient Gibbs sampling inference. We show that the gamma-NB process can be reduced …
We define a family of probability distributions for random count matrices with a potentially unbounded number of rows and columns. The three distributions we consider are derived from the gamma-Poisson, gamma-negative binomial, and beta-negative binomial processes. Because the models lead to closed-form Gibbs sampling …
The paper introduces the concept of a cluster structure to define a joint distribution of the sample size and its exchangeable random partitions. The cluster structure allows the probability distribution of the random partitions of a subset of the sample to be dependent on the sample size, a feature not presented in a …
The study uses Gaussian Processes with Tweedie likelihood for forecasting intermittent time series.
problem Forecasting intermittent time series with high accuracy and flexibility.
method The approach combines Gaussian Processes with two forecast distributions: negative binomial and Tweedie.
result TweedieGP provides better probabilistic forecasts, especially for high quantiles.
Efficient Bayesian variable selection for binomial and negative binomial data.
problem Computational challenges in Bayesian variable selection for complex models.
method Tempered Gibbs Sampling and MCMC scheme.
result Demonstrated effectiveness on cancer data with thousands of covariates.
Proposes a new model to better handle overdispersed count time series.
problem Heterogeneous overdispersed count time series.
method Negative-Binomial Randomized Gamma Markov Process.
result Significantly improves predictive performance and fast convergence of inference algorithm.
The paper improves count data regression models for overdispersed data.
problem Improving regression models for overdispersed count data.
method Double -regularized negative binomial regressions.
result Oracle inequalities and consistency for Lasso estimators of partial regression coefficients.
A common approach to analyze a covariate-sample count matrix, an element of which represents how many times a covariate appears in a sample, is to factorize it under the Poisson likelihood. We show its limitation in capturing the tendency for a covariate present in a sample to both repeat itself and excite related ones…
The paper models stock returns using -Gaussians and negative binomials.
problem Modeling stock return distributions and pricing options.
method Proposes a generalized jump-diffusion model and uses -Gaussians and negative binomial distributions.
result An explicit option pricing formula is derived.
Beta-Negative Binomial Process and Exchangeable Random Partitions for Mixed-Membership Modelingstat.ME
The beta-negative binomial process (BNBP), an integer-valued stochastic process, is employed to partition a count vector into a latent random count matrix. As the marginal probability distribution of the BNBP that governs the exchangeable random partitions of grouped data has not yet been developed, current inference f…
Unified NMF models for various noise distributions, improving feature extraction.
problem Inadequate assumptions for NMF under complex data distributions.
method Unified framework using MM-algorithms for traditional and convex NMF under Tweedie and Negative Binomial models.
result Unified multiplicative update rules for all models, including novel updates for convex NMF.
Study optimizes smart contract adoption under high demand variability using Negative Binomial models.
problem Effective supply chain management under high demand variability.
method Combines dynamic Negative Binomial demand modeling with endogenous smart contract adoption optimization.
result The NB model outperforms other benchmarks in forecasting and optimizing smart contract adoption and order quantity.
We introduce negative binomial matrix factorization (NBMF), a matrix factorization technique specially designed for analyzing over-dispersed count data. It can be viewed as an extension of Poisson matrix factorization (PF) perturbed by a multiplicative term which models exposure. This term brings a degree of freedom fo…
We study a sparse negative binomial regression (NBR) for count data by showing the non-asymptotic advantages of using the elastic-net estimator. Two types of oracle inequalities are derived for the NBR's elastic-net estimates by using the Compatibility Factor Condition and the Stabil Condition. The second type of oracl…
This paper provides formulas for minimum cost super-hedging in a multi-asset binomial market.
problem Finding minimum cost super-hedging strategies in a multi-asset, incomplete market model.
method Explicit formulas for minimum cost super-hedging strategies for various European type multi-asset contingent claims.
result Explicit formulas for non-negative local residuals of super-hedging strategies.
The seemingly disjoint problems of count and mixture modeling are united under the negative binomial (NB) process. A gamma process is employed to model the rate measure of a Poisson process, whose normalization provides a random probability measure for mixture modeling and whose marginalization leads to an NB process f…
NegBio-VAE models neural spike counts with negative binomial distribution.
problem Limited biological plausibility of continuous latent variables in VAEs for neural spike modeling.
method Proposes a negative binomial latent-variable model with a dispersion parameter for overdispersed spike count modeling.
result NegBio-VAE outperforms competing models in reconstruction and generation tasks.
Modeling correlated mutations in cancer for personalized treatment.
problem Identifying mutations for personalized cancer therapy in heterogeneous profiles.
method Proposed correlated zero-inflated negative binomial process with mixed beta-Bernoulli and variational inference.
result Identified biologically relevant correlations between somatic mutations.
Incorporating the side information of text corpus, i.e., authors, time stamps, and emotional tags, into the traditional text mining models has gained significant interests in the area of information retrieval, statistical natural language processing, and machine learning. One branch of these works is the so-called Auth…
Neural Negative Binomial Regression for Weekly Seismicity Forecasting: Per-Cell Dispersion Estimation and Tail Risk Assessmentphysics.geo-ph
New model predicts weekly earthquakes with better tail risk assessment.
problem Violation of Poisson assumption in seismic data.
method Neural network for per-cell overdispersion estimation.
result 8.6% reduction in mean pinball deviation, 12.5% lower CRPS in tail events.
Hierarchical Count Echo State Network Models with Application to Graduate Student Enrollmentsstat.ME
The paper proposes count echo state networks for forecasting graduate student enrollments.
problem Forecasting graduate student enrollments from historical data.
method Developed hierarchical count echo state networks and compared them to Poisson autoregressions and negative binomial models.
result Hierarchical negative binomial based echo state network is the superior model.
The theme in this paper is the recombining binomial tree to price American put option when the underlying stock follows constant elasticity of variance(CEV) process. Recombining nodes of binomial tree are decided from finite difference scheme to emulate CEV process and the tree has a linear complexity. Also it is deriv…
Develops a model for RNA-seq data clustering.
problem Challenges in clustering RNA-seq count data with variable selection.
method Sparse negative binomial mixture model with lasso or fused lasso regularization.
result Superior performance in clustering accuracy, feature selection, and biological interpretation.
PSO optimizes model parameters in nonstandard distributions.
problem Estimating model parameters in nonstandard distributions using existing algorithms.
method Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) as an alternative optimization routine.
result PSO produces more optimal or convergent results than existing algorithms.
The M5 competition tackles overdispersed retail sales forecasting with GAMLSS.
problem Overdispersed and zero-inflated retail sales data.
method Distributional forecasting using GAMLSS framework.
result GAMLSS provides better probabilistic forecasting for count data.
On strong binomial approximation for stochastic processes and applications for financial modellingq-fin.CP
This paper considers binomial approximation of continuous time stochastic processes. It is shown that, under some mild integrability conditions, a process can be approximated in mean square sense and in other strong metrics by binomial processes, i.e., by processes with fixed size binary increments at sampling points. …
Bayesian method tackles variable selection in high-dimensional data.
problem Challenges in Bayesian variable selection with large P.
method Efficient MCMC scheme with sublinear cost per iteration, extended to generalized linear models.
result Demonstrated effectiveness on cancer and maize genomic data.
Identifiability of Generalized Hypergeometric Distribution (GHD) Directed Acyclic Graphical Modelsstat.ML
We introduce a new class of identifiable DAG models where the conditional distribution of each node given its parents belongs to a family of generalized hypergeometric distributions (GHD). A family of generalized hypergeometric distributions includes a lot of discrete distributions such as the binomial, Beta-binomial, …
BKP R package models spatially varying binomial probabilities efficiently.
problem Modeling spatially varying binomial probabilities efficiently.
method Beta Kernel Process (BKP) combining localized kernel-weighted likelihoods with conjugate beta priors.
result Closed-form posterior inference without requiring latent variables or intensive MCMC sampling.
Interpretable text-response modelling for structured outcomes
problem Predicting structured responses alongside textual data
method Joint non-negative matrix factorisation and binomial regression
result Recovering stable response-relevant textual signals
A faster Bayesian method for estimating spatial count data models.
problem Bayesian estimation of spatial count data models is computationally expensive and slow.
method Derive a Variational Bayes (VB) method for posterior inference in negative binomial models with spatial dependence.
result The VB method is up to 50 times faster than MCMC and offers similar accuracy.
Develops Bayesian inference methods for gamma models.
problem Challenges in inference for models with gamma functions.
method Data augmentation scheme using Exponential Reciprocal Gamma distributions.
result Scalable EM and MCMC algorithms developed.
Study uses multidimensional SE-NBD process to analyze default portfolios and identify shock amplification.
problem Analyzing interactions and shock propagation in default portfolios with multiple sectors.
method Applied multidimensional self-exciting negative binomial distribution (SE-NBD) process to 13 sectors.
result Identified upstream and downstream sectors, showing shock amplification in default portfolios.
Develops a data augmentation method for models with gamma functions.
problem Models with gamma functions lack natural conjugate priors, complicating inference and prediction.
method Derives Pólya Inverse Gamma distributions and applies them to scalable EM and MCMC algorithms.
result Provides scalable algorithms for inference and prediction in models with gamma functions.
We develop a fast inference method for non-conjugate Gaussian process models on spike count data.
problem Non-Gaussian spike count data complicates Gaussian Process Factor Analysis.
method We introduce Polynomial Approximate Log-Likelihood (PAL) estimators for non-conjugate GPFA models.
result PAL estimators achieve fast and accurate extraction of latent structure from spike train data.
A Nonparametric Adaptive EWMA Control Chart for Binary Monitoring of Multiple Stream Processesstat.ML
A new control chart detects shifts in binary data streams quickly and reliably.
problem Early detection of small shifts in multiple binary data streams.
method Cumulative Standardized Binomial EWMA (CSB-EWMA) chart with exact variance derivation.
result Adaptive control limits ensure robust detection across different data distributions.
New framework for portfolio management using binomial markets and game theory.
problem Investment behavior in competitive and incomplete markets.
method Introduces PRFPP framework, constructs and analyzes for both finite and mean field games.
result Relative performance concerns do not always lead to more risky asset investment.
The logistic regression model is known to converge to a Poisson point process model if the binary response tends to infinitely imbalanced. In this paper, it is shown that this phenomenon is universal in a wide class of link functions on binomial regression. The proof relies on the extreme value theory. For the logit, p…
We present a constructive and self-contained approach to data driven general partition-of-unity copulas that were recently introduced in the literature. In particular, we consider Bernstein-, negative binomial and Poisson copulas and present a solution to the problem of fitting such copulas to highly asymmetric data.
In this paper we discuss Bayesian nonconvex penalization for sparse learning problems. We explore a nonparametric formulation for latent shrinkage parameters using subordinators which are one-dimensional Lévy processes. We particularly study a family of continuous compound Poisson subordinators and a family of discrete…
We extend the classical Cox-Ross-Rubinstein binomial model in two ways. We first develop a binomial model with time-dependent parameters that equate all moments of the pricing tree increments with the corresponding moments of the increments of the limiting Itô price process. Second, we introduce a new trinomial model i…
Telematics Combined Actuarial Neural Networks for Cross-Sectional and Longitudinal Claim Count Datastat.ML
CANN models improve insurance claim count predictions using telematics data.
problem Improving insurance claim count predictions with telematics data.
method Combining classical actuarial models with neural networks for telematics data.
result CANN models outperform traditional models in predicting insurance claims.
SimCD simultaneously clusters cells and identifies differential gene expression in scRNA-seq data.
problem Separate clustering and differential expression analysis for scRNA-seq data leads to suboptimal results.
method Develops SimCD, a unified hierarchical gamma-negative binomial model for simultaneous cell clustering and differential expression analysis.
result SimCD outperforms existing methods in discovering cell clusters and capturing dynamic expression changes.