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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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184367551734 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for natural experiments

Study finds real-world datasets contain natural experiments that can improve model performance.

problem Detecting natural experiments in real-world datasets for causal inference.
method Synthetic graph simulation and feature selection based on causal links.
result Real-world datasets contain natural experiments that can be exploited for improved model performance.

Natural experiment dataset reveals inconsistent treatment effect estimators.

problem Inconsistent results from over 20 estimators on a new dataset.
method Created a benchmark to evaluate estimator accuracy, derived variance formula, introduced new estimator.
result Doubly robust estimators outperform others by orders of magnitude.

Square-root natural-gradient improves variational inference convergence.

problem Challenges in establishing theoretical convergence guarantees for natural-gradient descent.
method Square-root parameterization for Gaussian covariance.
result Establishes novel convergence guarantees for natural-gradient Gaussian inference.

A new test improves statistical inference in bandit algorithms without sacrificing adaptiveness.

problem Challenges in statistical inference for adaptive randomised experiments in bandits.
method An allocation probability test for Thompson Sampling without trading-off regret or requiring large sample sizes.
result Improves statistical inference in small samples, showing advantages in mental health experiments.

iPrompt uses LLMs to generate natural-language explanations of data patterns.

problem Finding and explaining patterns in data using natural language.
method Interpretable autoprompting (iPrompt) that generates natural-language explanations based on LLMs.
result iPrompt can accurately find and explain data patterns, improving upon human-written prompts.

RL optimizes resource allocation in MG by balancing experience and exploration.

problem Optimal resource allocation in competitive scenarios.
method Introduced RL to MG, allowing dynamic strategy adjustment based on experience and expected rewards.
result Achieves optimal resource coordination by balancing exploitation and exploration.

PixL2R maps natural language to pixel-based rewards for RL, improving sample efficiency.

problem Sparse reward settings in RL limit applicability to complex problems.
method Directly maps natural language descriptions to pixel-based rewards for guiding RL.
result Language-based rewards significantly improve sample efficiency in policy learning.

Recent reinforcement learning (RL) approaches have shown strong performance in complex domains such as Atari games, but are often highly sample inefficient. A common approach to reduce interaction time with the environment is to use reward shaping, which involves carefully designing reward functions that provide the ag…

2019-03-05abs ↗pdf ↗

Motivated by the widespread adoption of large-scale A/B testing in industry, we propose a new experimentation framework for the setting where potential experiments are abundant (i.e., many hypotheses are available to test), and observations are costly; we refer to this as the experiment-rich regime. Such scenarios requ…

2018-05-30abs ↗pdf ↗

New insights into experience replay in RL algorithms.

problem Understanding the impact of replay capacity and replay ratio in Q-learning.
method Systematic and extensive analysis of experience replay in Q-learning methods, focusing on replay capacity and replay ratio.
result Greater replay capacity significantly improves performance for certain algorithms, while other techniques offer limited benefit.

We introduce a novel definition of curvature for hypergraphs, a natural generalization of graphs, by introducing a multi-marginal optimal transport problem for a naturally defined random walk on the hypergraph. This curvature, termed \emph{coarse scalar curvature}, generalizes a recent definition of Ricci curvature for…

2018-03-22abs ↗pdf ↗

This work investigates uncertainty quantification for black-box large language models in natural language generation.

problem Lack of trustworthiness in responses generated by black-box large language models.
method Differentiated uncertainty vs confidence, proposed and compared several confidence/uncertainty measures, applied to selective NLG.
result A simple measure for semantic dispersion can predict the quality of LLM responses.

Sentiment classification is an important process in understanding people's perception towards a product, service, or topic. Many natural language processing models have been proposed to solve the sentiment classification problem. However, most of them have focused on binary sentiment classification. In this paper, we u…

2019-10-04abs ↗pdf ↗

Develops an efficient method for large-scale deep learning problems.

problem Efficiently addressing the computational and memory challenges of natural gradient methods in deep learning.
method Randomized techniques for sketching the empirical Fisher information matrix in neural network layers.
result Global convergence to stationary points and fast linear convergence under the NTK case.

The paper proposes a method to train time-varying generative models using natural gradients.

problem Training time-varying generative models efficiently and accurately.
method Projecting generative model parameters onto an exponential family manifold and optimizing using natural gradient descent.
result The proposed method efficiently approximates the natural gradient and can be applied to various exponential family models.

Structured prediction requires searching over a combinatorial number of structures. To tackle it, we introduce SparseMAP: a new method for sparse structured inference, and its natural loss function. SparseMAP automatically selects only a few global structures: it is situated between MAP inference, which picks a single …

2018-02-12abs ↗pdf ↗

MuLan links music audio to natural language tags.

problem Traditional music tagging systems use rigid attributes; MuLan aims to link audio directly to natural language.
method Joint audio-text embedding model trained on 44 million music recordings and text annotations.
result MuLan's embeddings enable zero-shot functionalities and transfer learning.

Since deep learning became a key player in natural language processing (NLP), many deep learning models have been showing remarkable performances in a variety of NLP tasks, and in some cases, they are even outperforming humans. Such high performance can be explained by efficient knowledge representation of deep learnin…

2019-08-02abs ↗pdf ↗

A method for disentangling text representations without supervision.

problem Challenges in learning disentangled representations of natural language.
method Information-theoretic guidance to induce independent style and content embeddings.
result High quality disentangled representations in terms of content and style preservation.

BICauseTree improves causal effect estimation by identifying clusters and balancing treatment allocation.

problem Improving interpretability and transparency in causal effect models from observational data.
method Hierarchical bias-driven stratification using decision trees with a customized objective function.
result BICauseTree provides interpretable causal effect estimation and is comparable to existing methods.

The techniques of deep learning have become the state of the art methodology for executing complicated tasks from various domains of computer vision, natural language processing, and several other areas. Due to its rapid development and promising benchmarks in those fields, researchers started experimenting with this t…

2019-04-06abs ↗pdf ↗

In this paper, we study the design and analysis of experiments conducted on a set of units over multiple time periods where the starting time of the treatment may vary by unit. The design problem involves selecting an initial treatment time for each unit in order to most precisely estimate both the instantaneous and cu…

2019-11-09abs ↗pdf ↗

SSMBA generates synthetic data to improve robustness in natural language tasks.

problem Improving out-of-domain generalization of models trained on natural language data.
method SSMBA uses corruption and reconstruction functions to generate synthetic data points on the manifold assumption.
result SSMBA consistently outperforms existing methods on robustness benchmarks across multiple tasks and datasets.

Conformal prediction fails under severe feature turnover in COVID-19 supply chain tasks.

problem Dealing with distribution shift in conformal prediction models.
method Using COVID-19 as a natural experiment across 8 supply chain tasks, analyzing SHAP explanations.
result Coverage drops vary widely (0% to 86.7%) and correlate with single-feature dependence.

Active learning improves neutron spectroscopy experiments by automating measurement selection.

problem Efficiently searching for signals in neutron scattering experiments with limited beam time.
method Probabilistic active learning using log-Gaussian processes.
result Automated selection of informative measurements improves experimental efficiency.

Proposes model-based robust deep learning to handle natural variation in data.

problem Deep learning's fragility to natural variation in data.
method Develops model-based robust training algorithms using deep generative models to learn natural variation.
result Deep neural networks trained with model-based algorithms outperform standard and norm-bounded robust algorithms.

3D models vulnerable to adversarial attacks, new method improves success rate and naturalness.

problem Vulnerability of 3D deep learning models to adversarial examples in the physical world.
method ε-isometric (εε-ISO) attack considering geometric properties and invariance to physical transformations.
result Significantly improved attack success rate and naturalness of 3D adversarial examples.