Agents can learn spatial structure from raw sensorimotor experience.
problem Understanding spatial knowledge and its emergence in autonomous agents.
method A simple sensorimotor predictive scheme applied to various agents and exploration types.
result Agents can capture spatial topology and metric regularity without prior knowledge or supervision.
A widely applied diversification paradigm is the naive diversification choice heuristic. It stipulates that an economic agent allocates equal decision weights to given choice alternatives independent of their individual characteristics. This article provides mathematically and economically sound choice theoretic founda…
We consider the problem of stopping a diffusion process with a payoff functional that renders the problem time-inconsistent. We study stopping decisions of naive agents who reoptimize continuously in time, as well as equilibrium strategies of sophisticated agents who anticipate but lack control over their future selves…
Naive investors make riskier choices than optimal strategies in continuous-time finance.
problem Continuous-time Markowitz portfolio selection with naive reoptimization.
method Analytical derivation of naive policies from discretely naive policies.
result Naive policies are always riskier and less efficient than equilibrium policies.
A new method simulates large, diverse populations of learning agents evolving in games.
problem Limited scalability and efficiency of Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning.
method Parallelizable implementation of Policy Gradient and Opponent-Learning Awareness for evolutionary simulations.
result Simulated large, diverse populations of learning agents evolve under various strategies.
Framework trains safe agents avoiding deceptive behavior.
problem Training safe agents from unsafe incentives.
method Formal settings, causal influence analysis, maximizing non-mediated effects.
result Agents avoid manipulating delicate state for rewards.
Model shows how advisors can manipulate naive investors.
problem How financial advisors manipulate naive investors.
method Agent-Based Model with Nash equilibria and best response functions.
result Greediness/naivety of investors emerge naturally from the model.
Improved PAC guarantees for multi-agent reinforcement learning with noisy communication.
problem Improving exploration in cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning with communication constraints.
method Develops PAC guarantees for multiple concurrent MDPs with noisy and resource-limited communication.
result Theoretical and empirical improvements in sample complexity for information fusion.
Study on investment strategy for agents with periodic preferences and discounting.
problem Investment decisions by agents with periodic S-shaped preferences and present bias.
method Infinite-horizon, continuous-time portfolio selection problem with quasi-hyperbolic discounting.
result Time-consistent planning strategy can be formulated as an equilibrium to a static mean field game.
PredictionMarketBench benchmarks trading agents on prediction markets.
problem Evaluating trading agents on prediction markets with realistic conditions.
method Deterministic replay of historical data, execution-realistic simulator, agent interface.
result Fee-aware algorithmic strategies outperform naive agents in volatile episodes.
Agents learn spatial structure without supervision.
problem Understanding spatial knowledge in autonomous agents.
method Sensorimotor predictive scheme applied to various agents and exploration types.
result Agents can learn egocentric spatial structure without supervision.
We consider an agent who needs to buy (or sell) a relatively small amount of asset over some fixed short time interval. We work at the highest frequency meaning that we wish to find the optimal tactic to execute our quantity using limit orders, market orders and cancellations. To solve the agent's control problem, we b…
The paper introduces a method for multi-agent reinforcement learning to coordinate exploration.
problem Sparse rewards in multi-agent settings lead to independent exploration.
method Designing intrinsic rewards that encourage coordination and developing a hierarchical policy.
result The approach accelerates and improves exploration in cooperative multi-agent settings.
We extend prior evidence that naively using intraday agent-based models that involve realistic order-matching processes for modeling continuous-time double auction markets seems to fail to be able to provide a robust link between data and many model parameters, even when these models are able to reproduce a number of w…
New method allows a robot to perceive space dimensions without prior knowledge.
problem Limitation of previous methods in perceiving space dimensions with small movements.
method Non-linear dimension estimation method.
result Robots can now perceive space dimensions with larger movements.
This paper extends the classical consumption and portfolio rules model in continuous time (Merton 1969, 1971) to the framework of decision-makers with time-inconsistent preferences. The model is solved for different utility functions for both, naive and sophisticated agents, and the results are compared. In order to so…
Partner-aware algorithms improve AI collaboration in multi-agent settings.
problem Improving AI cooperation in teams with shared rewards.
method Proposed Partner-Aware strategy extending Upper Confidence Bound for decentralized MAB.
result Achieves logarithmic regret in collaborative decision-making.
Novel approach models opponent learning dynamics in multi-agent reinforcement learning.
problem Adaptation and learning of other agents in multi-agent settings cause non-stationarity, challenging existing algorithms.
method Develops a novel approach called Learning to Model Opponent Learning (LeMOL) to accurately model opponent learning dynamics.
result Structured opponent model is more accurate and stable than naive baselines.
We discuss the behavior of two magnitudes, physical complexity and mutual information function of the outcome of a model of heterogeneous, inductive rational agents inspired in the El Farol Bar problem and the Minority Game. The first is a measure rooted in Kolmogorov-Chaitin theory and the second one a measure related…
Many recommendation algorithms rely on user data to generate recommendations. However, these recommendations also affect the data obtained from future users. This work aims to understand the effects of this dynamic interaction. We propose a simple model where users with heterogeneous preferences arrive over time. Based…
New system resists meme coin copy trading bots.
problem Manipulative bots exploit copy trading in illiquid meme coins.
method Multi-agent architecture with LLM and CoT reasoning.
result System outperforms other methods in prediction and economic performance.
Real world markets display power-law features in variables such as price fluctuations in stocks. To further understand market behavior, we have conducted a series of market experiments on our web-based prediction market platform which allows us to reconstruct transaction networks among traders. From these networks, we …
Adapts IRL for dual-system agents, correcting goal inference errors.
problem Inferring goals from dual-system decision-making behaviors.
method Generalized dual-system framework, optimal plan computation, adapted IRL algorithm.
result Correct goal inference for dual-system agents improves overall utility.
Approach to develop visual perception in robots through sensorimotor interactions.
problem Developing autonomous perception in robots.
method Sensorimotor contingencies theory applied to robot exploration and learning.
result Captured sensorimotor regularities in a predictive model for visual field discovery.
KineticSim accelerates financial market simulations 3406x over CPU.
problem Simulating financial markets at scale with multi-agent models is bottlenecked by sequential processing and GPU kernel overhead.
method Formalized and implemented a reusable parallel design pattern for iterative multi-agent reductions in thread-block shared memory.
result Achieved a peak throughput of over 54.7 billion agent-events per second, delivering 3406x speedup over CPU.
KineticSim: A lightweight, high-performance execution engine for real-time market simulators
problem Simulating financial markets at scale with multi-agent models
method Reusable parallel design pattern: persistent, state-carrying clearing for iterative multi-agent reductions
result Reduces per-step critical-path depth from Theta(L+A) to Theta(log L + ceil(A/L))
RL improves market making with historical data time travel.
problem Limited ability to simulate and fully appraise the impact of actions in competitive systems.
method Introduces 'consistent data time travel' to adjust historical data time index.
result Significant improvement in agent's gain with data time travel.
AutoStan improves Bayesian models via predictive feedback.
problem Improving Bayesian models written in Stan.
method Iterative improvement of Stan models using NLPD and sampler diagnostics feedback.
result AutoStan can autonomously improve diverse Bayesian models across various structures.
While current deep learning systems excel at tasks such as object classification, language processing, and gameplay, few can construct or modify a complex system such as a tower of blocks. We hypothesize that what these systems lack is a "relational inductive bias": a capacity for reasoning about inter-object relations…
A neural network predicts a body image from sensorimotor data.
problem How to acquire a body image from sensorimotor data.
method A two-branches deconvolutional neural network trained on first-person images.
result The network can automatically isolate the visible arm from the environment.
MPANF improves naive forecast by incorporating directional information.
problem Challenging to surpass naive forecast in financial time series.
method Combines naive forecast with movement prediction and accuracy.
result MPANF generally outperforms common benchmarks.
Despite its simplicity, the naive Bayes classifier has surprised machine learning researchers by exhibiting good performance on a variety of learning problems. Encouraged by these results, researchers have looked to overcome naive Bayes primary weakness - attribute independence - and improve the performance of the algo…
Improved Naive Bayes for text classification with small datasets.
problem Poor performance of Naive Bayes in small training datasets.
method Introducing a correlation factor to Naive Bayes estimator.
result Our method achieves better accuracy than traditional Naive Bayes.
BAM integrates new data while selectively remembering past observations.
problem Slow adaptation and convergence to incorrect parameter values in non-stationary environments.
method Bayes' theorem with adaptive memory selection.
result BAM generalizes and demonstrates continuous adaptation in changing environments.
New algorithms reduce matching regret by limiting frequent updates.
problem Minimizing regret in stochastic matching with rare optimization updates.
method Batched algorithms that limit matching updates to Θ(log log T) rounds.
result Achieve a regret bound of \(\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{T})\) with reduced computational cost.
IPO Finance Agent evaluates LLMs on SpaceX IPO due diligence, surpassing Finance Agent v2.
problem Evaluating language models on financial tasks like IPO due diligence.
method Introducing IPO Finance Agent and an evaluator-optimizer pipeline.
result The best-performing model reaches 79.4% accuracy at 0.30 USD per query.
Paper introduces Generalized Naive Bayes for better data fitting.
problem Improving Naive Bayes for better data fitting.
method Developed new greedy and optimal algorithms for GNB.
result Proves GNB fits data at least as well as classical NB.
CQL tackles combinatorial actions in Dou Di Zhu, outperforming state-of-the-art methods.
problem Handling combinatorial actions in Dou Di Zhu, a complex card game.
method Combinational Q-learning (CQL) using a two-stage network and order-invariant max-pooling.
result CQL outperforms naive Q-learning and A3C in Dou Di Zhu.
We study the finite-size effects in some scaling systems, and show that the finite number of agents N leads to a cut-off in the upper value of the Pareto law for the relative individual wealth. The exponent α of the Pareto law obtained in stochastic multiplicative market models is crucially affected by the fact that …
Improved Naive Bayes classifier with neural network models.
problem Limited complexity handling and independence assumption in Naive Bayes.
method Introducing Neural Naive Bayes and Neural Pooled Markov Chain models.
result Error rate reduced by 4.5 on IMDB dataset.
Sophisticated volatility models outperform naive portfolio strategies.
problem Improving mean-variance portfolio performance over the naive 1/N strategy.
method Investigated various econometric and portfolio models across multiple datasets.
result Most models achieve higher Sharpe ratios and lower portfolio volatility than the naive rule.
IPO Finance Agent extends Finance Agent v2 for SpaceX S-1 filings, improving accuracy and cost-efficiency.
problem Evaluating IPO due diligence tasks with long-form documents.
method Extended task domain, improved agentic harness with contextual retrieval, automated rubric generation.
result Best-performing model reaches 79.8% accuracy, cost-efficient model at 77.2% with 0.05 USD per query.
New method improves DRL robustness against adversarial state observations.
problem Adversarial attacks on deep reinforcement learning agents observing state data.
method State-adversarial Markov decision process (SA-MDP) and policy regularization.
result Significant improvement in robustness of DRL algorithms under adversarial attacks.
A nearly tight convex relaxation for sparse Naive Bayes features.
problem Feature selection in large-scale Naive Bayes classification.
method Proposes a convex relaxation for the combinatorial maximum-likelihood problem of feature selection in Naive Bayes.
result The convex relaxation bounds become tight as marginal feature contributions decrease, providing a nearly optimal solution.
NADPEx uses dropout to enable temporally consistent exploration in reinforcement learning.
problem Achieving temporally consistent exploration in reinforcement learning agents.
method Integrates dropout into reinforcement learning policies to ensure temporal consistency.
result NADPEx outperforms naive exploration and parameter noise in tasks with sparse rewards.
The paper compares one-hot encoding to Naïve Bayes for categorical variables.
problem Incorrect one-hot encoding affects Naïve Bayes performance.
method Mathematical and experimental analysis of PoB vs. categorical Naïve Bayes.
result Posterior probabilities are usually greater in the PoB case, but agree on the maximum a posteriori class label.
Proposes a non-convex optimization method for a parsimonious weighted naive Bayes classifier.
problem Improving naïve Bayes classifier performance with a large number of input variables.
method Sparse regularization of model log-likelihood for direct estimation of variable weights.
result Optimization-based weighted naïve Bayes classifiers achieve equivalent performance to averaging-based classifiers.
Optimizes trading in CFMMs and exchanges using deep learning.
problem Optimizing trading strategies in CFMMs and exchanges.
method Develops a model accounting for interaction between CFMMs and exchanges, employs deep Galerkin method to solve dynamic programming equation.
result Optimal strategy outperforms naïve strategies and is not prone to price slippage.