Time Series forecasting (univariate and multivariate) is a problem of high complexity due the different patterns that have to be detected in the input, ranging from high to low frequencies ones. In this paper we propose a new model for timeseries prediction that utilizes convolutional layers for feature extraction, a r…
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48 results for “multivariate timeseries”
Model predicts ESG ratings from news articles using multivariate timeseries analysis.
problem Lack of accurate and automated methods for ESG ratings prediction.
method Multivariate timeseries analysis combined with deep learning.
result Model outperforms state-of-the-art methods in predicting ESG ratings.
New STH distance finds patterns in event timeseries without resampling.
problem Lack of efficient analysis methods for event and state timeseries.
method Define STE-ts, propose STH, leveraging both time and state duration.
result Improved precision and computation time compared to resampled metrics.
Proposes a deep generative model for robust forecasting on sparse multivariate time series.
problem Forecasting on sparse multivariate time series with suboptimal results when sparsity is high.
method Dynamic Gaussian Mixture distribution for modeling latent clusters, using neural networks and gating mechanism.
result Demonstrates robust modeling of sparse multivariate time series with improved accuracy.
IETNet identifies important channels for MVTS classification.
problem Multivariate time series classification with blackbox deep networks.
method End-to-end network combining temporal feature extraction, variable selection, and interaction.
result IETNet improves model accuracy and reduces overfitting by identifying and removing non-predictive variables.
Periodicity is often studied in timeseries modelling with autoregressive methods but is less popular in the kernel literature, particularly for higher dimensional problems such as in textures, crystallography, and quantum mechanics. Large datasets often make modelling periodicity untenable for otherwise powerful non-pa…
We present a windowed technique to learn parsimonious time-varying autoregressive models from multivariate timeseries. This unsupervised method uncovers interpretable spatiotemporal structure in data via non-smooth and non-convex optimization. In each time window, we assume the data follow a linear model parameterized …
An Outlook on Correlations in Stock Pricesphysics.soc-ph
We present an outlook of the studies on correlations in the price timeseries of stocks, discussing the construction and applications of "asset tree". The topic discussed here should illustrate how the complex economic system (financial market) enrichens the list of existing dynamical systems that physicists have been s…
Adaptive prediction timing improves healthcare outcomes by predicting patient events at the right frequency.
problem Inconsistent prediction granularity in healthcare models.
method Introduces a novel approach using Bayesian recurrent models and a new aggregation method to adapt prediction frequency based on uncertainty.
result Adaptive prediction timing leads to improved predictive performance, especially in the critical first 12 hours of patient stay.
TSGAN models time series data with limited data, outperforming competitors.
problem Lack of quality time series data for machine learning.
method Proposes Time Series GAN (TSGAN) for synthetic time series generation.
result TSGAN outperforms competitors in FID metric and qualitative classification.
We propose a simple quantitative model of Schumpeterian economic dynamics. New goods and services are endogenously produced through combinations of existing goods. As soon as new goods enter the market they may compete against already existing goods, in other words new products can have destructive effects on existing …
Prediction of future movement of stock prices has been a subject matter of many research work. In this work, we propose a hybrid approach for stock price prediction using machine learning and deep learning-based methods. We select the NIFTY 50 index values of the National Stock Exchange of India, over a period of four …
seq2graph: Discovering Dynamic Dependencies from Multivariate Time Series with Multi-level Attentioncs.LG
Discovering temporal lagged and inter-dependencies in multivariate time series data is an important task. However, in many real-world applications, such as commercial cloud management, manufacturing predictive maintenance, and portfolios performance analysis, such dependencies can be non-linear and time-variant, which …
We present the Infinite Latent Events Model, a nonparametric hierarchical Bayesian distribution over infinite dimensional Dynamic Bayesian Networks with binary state representations and noisy-OR-like transitions. The distribution can be used to learn structure in discrete timeseries data by simultaneously inferring a s…
New methods improve brain data analysis from fMRI datasets.
problem Simplified brain models from correlational values are insufficient.
method Deep learning and geometric deep learning techniques.
result Improved predictive spatio-temporal brain data representation.
Paper separates financial time series into fast and slow components.
problem Multiscale behavior in financial time series data.
method Uses variance and tail stationarity criteria as generalized eigenvalue problems.
result Identifies slow and fast components in asset returns and prices.
AutoEncoder smooths noisy sensor data and interpolates missing values.
problem Noisy sensor data and missing timepoints require interpolation.
method Uses AutoEncoder to denoise and interpolate data.
result AutoEncoder improves data quality and reveals dynamics.
WISDoM (Wishart Distributed Matrices) is a new framework for the quantification of deviation of symmetric positive-definite matrices associated to experimental samples, like covariance or correlation matrices, from expected ones governed by the Wishart distribution WISDoM can be applied to tasks of supervised learning,…
Optimal asset allocation is a key topic in modern finance theory. To realize the optimal asset allocation on investor's risk aversion, various portfolio construction methods have been proposed. Recently, the applications of machine learning are rapidly growing in the area of finance. In this article, we propose the Stu…
XAI identifies key time steps for early crop classification.
problem Early crop classification with high accuracy and timeliness.
method Training a baseline model with LRP to identify important time steps.
result Identified a 21st April 2019 to 9th August 2019 timeframe with 0.75% accuracy loss.
Unified framework for self-supervised learning via latent distribution matching.
problem Lack of a unifying theoretical framework for diverse SSL methods.
method Casting SSL as latent distribution matching (LDM): maximizing alignment and uniformity.
result Derives a Bayesian filtering model and proves identifiable latent representations.
Parity Calibrationcs.LG
Parity calibration aims to predict increase-decrease events, not values.
problem Forecasting future increase-decrease events rather than exact values.
method Online binary calibration method to achieve parity calibration.
result Online binary calibration achieves parity calibration effectively.
Dynamic assessment of patient status (e.g. by an automated, continuously updated assessment of outcome) in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) is of paramount importance for early alerting, decision support and resource allocation. Extraction and cleaning of expert-selected clinical variables discards information and protrac…
PCA simplifies multivariate extreme data analysis.
problem Analyzing multivariate extreme values with high-dimensional data.
method Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for dimensionality reduction.
result PCA helps preserve essential information for extreme value analysis.
In this paper, we establish the stochastic ordering of the Gini indexes for multivariate elliptical risks which generalized the corresponding results for multivariate normal risks. It is shown that several conditions on dispersion matrices and the components of dispersion matrices of multivariate normal risks for the m…
Time series data are prevalent in electronic health records, mostly in the form of physiological parameters such as vital signs and lab tests. The patterns of these values may be significant indicators of patients' clinical states and there might be patterns that are unknown to clinicians but are highly predictive of s…
This paper uses multivariate probability models to assess financial system risks.
problem Assessing systemic risk in financial systems.
method Computes multivariate conditional probability distributions for elliptical distributions, focusing on Student-t and Normal models.
result Proposes measures of stress impact and systemic risk.
RED CoMETS improves multivariate time series classification accuracy.
problem Complexity of multivariate time series classification.
method Ensemble classifier RED CoMETS for symbolically represented multivariate time series.
result RED CoMETS achieves highest reported accuracy on 'HandMovementDirection' dataset.
We study various specializations of the colored HOMFLY-PT polynomial. These specializations are used to show that the multivariable link invariants arising from a complex family of sl(m|n) super-modules previously defined by the authors contains both the multivariable Alexander polynomial and Kashaev's invariants. We c…
Regularized MFPCA smooths multivariate functional data for clearer patterns.
problem Challenges in controlling roughness of multivariate functional PCs.
method ReMFPCA incorporates a roughness penalty in a penalized framework to smooth PCs.
result Smoothed multivariate functional PCs reveal clearer patterns.
ARIMA model outperforms advanced forecasting models in predicting Walmart sales.
problem Forecasting volatile retail sales trends with unknown factors.
method Benchmarked traditional ARIMA model against advanced models like Prophet and LightGBM on historical Walmart sales data.
result ARIMA model outperforms LightGBM and achieves computational efficiency.
New method interprets multivariate time series for better results.
problem Difficulty in applying traditional methods to multivariate time series.
method Alternative representation of multivariate time series through features.
result Competitive and interpretable results achieved.
New sampling strategy preserves relationships in multivariate scientific data.
problem Reducing storage and enabling efficient multivariate analyses on large scientific data.
method Uses principal component analysis for multivariate data and combines with existing univariate sampling algorithms.
result Efficacy demonstrated on real-world data sets, showing data reduction and multivariate analysis ease.
Functional AD for Weil algebra computations.
problem Efficient computation of -structures on Weil algebras.
method Multivariate Tower Automatic Differentiation (AD) implementation.
result Functional AD for Weil algebra computation.
Proposes mCS for multivariate selection with FDR control.
problem Selecting high-quality candidates from multivariate datasets.
method Introduces regional monotonicity and multivariate nonconformity scores.
result Significantly improves selection power with FDR control.
Meta algorithm solves multivariate optimization using univariate optimizers.
problem Multivariate global optimization problems.
method Meta algorithm combining univariate global optimizers.
result Meta algorithm provides robust regret guarantees.
This paper presents a new methodology for clustering multivariate time series leveraging optimal transport between copulas. Copulas are used to encode both (i) intra-dependence of a multivariate time series, and (ii) inter-dependence between two time series. Then, optimal copula transport allows us to define two distan…
In [16], a new family of vector-valued risk measures called multivariate expectiles is introduced. In this paper, we focus on the asymptotic behavior of these measures in a multivariate regular variations context. For models with equivalent tails, we propose an estimator of these multivariate asymptotic expectiles, in …
The paper introduces new estimators for multivariate functions using Fourier methods.
problem Estimating multivariate functions like densities and regression functions.
method Monte Carlo estimators based on the Fourier integral theorem.
result Established rates of convergence for new estimators, often superior to existing methods.
The paper estimates CoVaR with various models for financial risk analysis.
problem Estimating conditional value-at-risk with financial time series data.
method Fitting multivariate parametric models and copula functions to capture stylized facts of equity returns.
result Backtesting shows that certain models provide better risk estimates than others.
The paper calculates moments and conditional risks for skewed elliptical distributions.
problem Estimating moments and tail conditional risks for skewed elliptical distributions.
method Derives explicit expressions for multivariate doubly truncated moments and conditional risks for generalized skew-elliptical distributions.
result Explicit formulas for multivariate doubly truncated moments and conditional risks are derived for various skewed elliptical distributions.
Manifold calculus of functors, due to M. Weiss, studies contravariant functors from the poset of open subsets of a smooth manifold to topological spaces. We introduce "multivariable" manifold calculus of functors which is a generalization of this theory to functors whose domain is a product of categories of open sets. …
In this paper, we consider the multivariate Bernoulli distribution as a model to estimate the structure of graphs with binary nodes. This distribution is discussed in the framework of the exponential family, and its statistical properties regarding independence of the nodes are demonstrated. Importantly the model can e…
Study GLS estimator properties in multivariate regression with heteroskedastic and autocorrelated errors.
problem Asymptotic properties of GLS estimator in multivariate regression with specific error structures.
method Derive Wald statistics for linear restrictions and assess their performance.
result Wald statistics remain robust to heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation.
We consider families of strongly consistent multivariate conditional risk measures. We show that under strong consistency these families admit a decomposition into a conditional aggregation function and a univariate conditional risk measure as introduced Hoffmann et al. (2016). Further, in analogy to the univariate cas…
Markovian RNN adapts to nonstationary data using HMM for better time series prediction.
problem Nonstationary sequential data in real-life applications.
method Markovian RNN with HMM for regime switching and end-to-end optimization.
result Significant performance gains over vanilla RNN and Markov Switching ARIMA.
A simple multivariable version of the reduced Burau matrix is constructed for any braid. It is shown how the multivariable Alexander polynomial for the closure of the braid can be found directly from this matrix.
Extends online linear regression to handle multivariate data.
problem Hierarchical forecasting with multivariate responses.
method Introduces MultiVAW, extending Vovk-Azoury-Warmuth algorithm to multivariate setting.
result Achieves logarithmic regret in time for multivariate online linear regression.