arXiv research

GPDFlow models extreme threshold exceedance with flexible dependence using normalizing flows.

The first order behavior of multivariate heavy-tailed random vectors above large radial thresholds is ruled by a limit measure in a regular variation framework. For a high dimensional vector, a reasonable assumption is that the support of this measure is concentrated on a lower dimensional subspace, meaning that certai…

We win EVA2025 by estimating extreme precipitation events using Peaks Over Thresholds and martingale testing.

GenFormer uses deep learning to generate complex stochastic data.

Study compares two methods for predicting extreme atmospheric events.

We study the relaxation dynamics of a financial market just after the occurrence of a crash by investigating the number of times the absolute value of an index return is exceeding a given threshold value. We show that the empirical observation of a power law evolution of the number of events exceeding the selected thre…

Technology and collaboration enable dramatic increases in the size of psychological and psychiatric data collections, but finding structure in these large data sets with many collected variables is challenging. Decision tree ensembles like random forests (Strobl, Malley, and Tutz, 2009) are a useful tool for finding st…

New method predicts wave height exceedance probabilities.

Sharp large deviations and Gibbs conditioning for portfolio credit risk models.

New model predicts financial tail events using RIA-EVT-Copula.

This study defines a multivariate Self--Exciting Threshold Autoregressive with eXogenous input (MSETARX) models and present an estimation procedure for the parameters. The conditions for stationarity of the nonlinear MSETARX models is provided. In particular, the efficiency of an adaptive parameter estimation algorithm…

We investigate the probability distribution of the return intervals $τ$ between successive 1-min volatilities of two Chinese indices exceeding a certain threshold $q$. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) tests show that the two indices exhibit multiscaling behavior in the distribution of $τ$, which follows a stretched exponent…

Grover search for optimal portfolios based on Sharpe ratio.

In this paper, we investigate a multivariate multi-response (MVMR) linear regression problem, which contains multiple linear regression models with differently distributed design matrices, and different regression and output vectors. The goal is to recover the support union of all regression vectors using $l_1/l_2$-reg…

Proposes ACLAE-DT for unsupervised anomaly detection in multivariate time series.

Geometric framework for signed multivariate tail-dependence compatibility at various thresholds.

The relaxation dynamics of aftershocks after large volatility shocks are investigated based on two high-frequency data sets of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite (SSEC) index. Compared with previous relevant work, we have defined main financial shocks based on large volatilities rather than large crashes. We find th…

Investigates multi-period portfolio optimization for DC plans using buffered Probability of Exceedance.

Study large deviations in life insurance portfolios without identical distributions.

Quantile gradient boosted trees outperform other models in predicting NO2 concentration distributions.

Proposes a model for clearing prices in financial markets due to margin calls.

Unified framework for shrinkage, thresholding, and regularization in normal mean estimation and linear regression.

Spectral density matrix estimation of multivariate time series is a classical problem in time series and signal processing. In modern neuroscience, spectral density based metrics are commonly used for analyzing functional connectivity among brain regions. In this paper, we develop a non-asymptotic theory for regularize…

We investigate the relative information content of six measures of dependence between two random variables $X$ and $Y$ for large or extreme events for several models of interest for financial time series. The six measures of dependence are respectively the linear correlation $ρ^+_v$ and Spearman's rho $ρ_s(v)$ conditio…

We propose the use of Bayesian networks, which provide both a mean value and an uncertainty estimate as output, to enhance the safety of learned control policies under circumstances in which a test-time input differs significantly from the training set. Our algorithm combines reinforcement learning and end-to-end imita…

New study shows diversification can increase risk for heavy-tailed losses.

New simulations advise caution in choosing principal components for multivariate functional data.

To meet the Basel II regulatory requirements for the Advanced Measurement Approaches in operational risk, the bank's internal model should make use of the internal data, relevant external data, scenario analysis and factors reflecting the business environment and internal control systems. One of the unresolved challeng…

We discuss the statistical properties of index returns in a financial market just after a major market crash. The observed non-stationary behavior of index returns is characterized in terms of the exceedances over a given threshold. This characterization is analogous to the Omori law originally observed in geophysics. …

We adopted an approach based on an LSTM neural network to monitor and detect faults in industrial multivariate time series data. To validate the approach we created a Modelica model of part of a real gasoil plant. By introducing hacks into the logic of the Modelica model, we were able to generate both the roots and cau…

Study models extreme skew surges along French Atlantic coast.

Being able to forcast extreme volatility is a central issue in financial risk management. We present a large volatility predicting method based on the distribution of recurrence intervals between volatilities exceeding a certain threshold $Q$ for a fixed expected recurrence time $τ_Q$. We find that the recurrence inter…

Study robust estimation under varying corruption probabilities in data.

Spectral clustering identifies clusters of multivariate extremes.

Study active learning of PTFs with derivative access.

The statistical properties of the return intervals $τ_q$ between successive 1-min volatilities of 30 liquid Chinese stocks exceeding a certain threshold $q$ are carefully studied. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test shows that 12 stocks exhibit scaling behaviors in the distributions of $τ_q$ for different thresholds $q$. …

In this article, we consider a stochastic numerical simulator to assess the impact of some factors on a phenomenon. The simulator is seen as a black box with inputs and outputs. The quality of a simulation, hereafter referred to as fidelity, is assumed to be tunable by means of an additional input of the simulator (e.g…

Kernel PCA helps analyze multivariate extremes and clusters them effectively.

Multivariate binary data is becoming abundant in current biological research. Logistic principal component analysis (PCA) is one of the commonly used tools to explore the relationships inside a multivariate binary data set by exploiting the underlying low rank structure. We re-expressed the logistic PCA model based on …

New method calibrates false detection rates in sequential change detection.

In economics, insurance and finance, value at risk (VaR) is a widely used measure of the risk of loss on a specific portfolio of financial assets. For a given portfolio, time horizon, and probability $α$, the $100α\%$ VaR is defined as a threshold loss value, such that the probability that the loss on the portfolio ove…

This study examined how the correlation and network structure of 30 global indices and 145 local Korean indices belonging to the KOSPI 200 have changed during the 13-year period, 2000-2012. The correlations among the indices were calculated. The results showed that although the average correlations of the global indice…

We propose a nonconvex estimator for joint multivariate regression and precision matrix estimation in the high dimensional regime, under sparsity constraints. A gradient descent algorithm with hard thresholding is developed to solve the nonconvex estimator, and it attains a linear rate of convergence to the true regres…

We propose a modification of linear discriminant analysis, referred to as compressive regularized discriminant analysis (CRDA), for analysis of high-dimensional datasets. CRDA is specially designed for feature elimination purpose and can be used as gene selection method in microarray studies. CRDA lends ideas from $\el…

Maximal Rate of Stepwise Uncertainty Reduction selects simulations to reduce uncertainty efficiently.

MO-PaDGAN generates diverse, high-performance designs with multiple metrics.

Financial exchanges provide incentives for limit order book (LOB) liquidity provision to certain market participants, termed designated market makers or designated sponsors. While quoting requirements typically enforce the activity of these participants for a certain portion of the day, we argue that liquidity demand t…

A new method for sparse PCA using orthogonal rotations and soft-thresholding.