A new method uses RF's out-of-bag errors for multiple imputation.
problem Missing data in biomedical studies and lack of prediction uncertainty.
method Constructs conditional distributions from the empirical distribution of out-of-bag prediction errors.
result Valid multiple imputation results achieved without parametric assumptions.
Multiplicative noise models are often used instead of additive noise models in cases in which the noise variance depends on the state. Furthermore, when Poisson distributions with relatively small counts are approximated with normal distributions, multiplicative noise approximations are straightforward to implement. Th…
We design a new algorithm for the Euclidean k-means problem that operates in the local model of differential privacy. Unlike in the non-private literature, differentially private algorithms for the k-means objective incur both additive and multiplicative errors. Our algorithm significantly reduces the additive erro…
Max-rank improves multiple testing in conformal prediction.
problem Simultaneous testing of multiple hypotheses in scientific inquiries.
method Introduces max-rank, a novel correction for positive dependencies in simultaneous testing.
result Max-rank efficiently controls family-wise error rate and improves predictive uncertainty estimates.
New PAC-Bayes bound controls multiple error types simultaneously.
problem Current PAC-Bayes bounds are limited to scalar metrics.
method Bounding KL divergence between empirical and true probabilities of multiple error types.
result First PAC-Bayes bound for rich information-rich certificates.
Gaussian graphical model is a graphical representation of the dependence structure for a Gaussian random vector. It is recognized as a powerful tool in different applied fields such as bioinformatics, error-control codes, speech language, information retrieval and others. Gaussian graphical model selection is a statist…
Ogburn et al. (2019, arXiv:1910.05438) discuss "The Blessings of Multiple Causes" (Wang and Blei, 2018, arXiv:1805.06826). Many of their remarks are interesting. But they also claim that the paper has "foundational errors" and that its "premise is...incorrect." These claims are not substantiated. There are no foundatio…
Calibration without labels in multiple testing
problem Interpretable error probabilities in large-scale hypothesis testing
method Constructing pseudo-labels from spacings of ordered p-values result Finding that q-value can be severely miscalibrated Matrix multiplication is a fundamental building block for large scale computations arising in various applications, including machine learning. There has been significant recent interest in using coding to speed up distributed matrix multiplication, that are robust to stragglers (i.e., machines that may perform slower …
We learn linear models from nonlinear systems using multiple trajectories and regularization.
problem Identifying linear models from data when the underlying dynamics are nonlinear.
method Multiple trajectories data acquisition followed by regularized least squares.
result Learn linearized dynamics with arbitrarily small error given enough samples.
Proposes a new test for validating multivariate dynamic regression models.
problem Inadequate exogeneity conditions for conventional model specification tests in dynamic systems.
method Develops a generalized Durbin estimator for multiple-equation systems with dynamic dependencies, and constructs Wald tests.
result Bootstrap-based Wald tests improve finite-sample size control and validate the null hypothesis in multifactor models.
New framework identifies and reduces errors in machine learning under distribution shift.
problem Errors in machine learning models when distributions change.
method Developed a principled framework to characterize and eliminate epistemic errors in imperfect multitask learning.
result Provided a decompositional epistemic error bound for general settings of distribution shift.
In this paper we consider portmanteau tests for testing the adequacy of multiplicative seasonal autoregressive moving-average (SARMA) models under the assumption that the errors are uncorrelated but not necessarily independent.We relax the standard independence assumption on the error term in order to extend the range …
The study improves theoretical understanding of using multiple synthetic datasets for better model accuracy.
problem Lack of theoretical understanding of using multiple synthetic datasets for supervised learning.
method Derive bias-variance decompositions for multiple synthetic datasets settings.
result A simple rule of thumb to select the appropriate number of synthetic datasets.
Develops a framework to quantify uncertainties in multiple ML models.
problem Uncertainty in ML model predictions and model inputs.
method Develops a theoretical framework to decouple and transform uncertainties.
result Generates joint distribution of ML predictions considering uncertainties.
Error-robust multi-view clustering tackles noisy data across multiple sources.
problem Error in multi-view data degrades clustering performance.
method Blind clustering without error consideration is ineffective. Various approaches like sparsity, graph, subspace, and deep learning are reviewed.
result Error-robust multi-view clustering improves clustering accuracy even with corrupted data.
The study corrects measurement error in evaluating health effects of multiple pollutants.
problem Bias in estimating health effects of air pollution constituents due to mismeasurement.
method Used a linear regression calibration model and extended DML approach to correct for measurement error.
result Identified two PM2.5 constituents (Br and Mn) that show a negative causal effect on cognitive function after correction.
Nonlinear kernels can be approximated using finite-dimensional feature maps for efficient risk minimization. Due to the inherent trade-off between the dimension of the (mapped) feature space and the approximation accuracy, the key problem is to identify promising (explicit) features leading to a satisfactory out-of-sam…
The problem of multiple hypothesis testing arises when there are more than one hypothesis to be tested simultaneously for statistical significance. This is a very common situation in many data mining applications. For instance, assessing simultaneously the significance of all frequent itemsets of a single dataset entai…
We apply multiple testing procedures to the validation of estimated default probabilities in credit rating systems. The goal is to identify rating classes for which the probability of default is estimated inaccurately, while still maintaining a predefined level of committing type I errors as measured by the familywise …
New bounds for M-SGD show its error distribution is nearly Gaussian.
problem Understanding the error distribution of M-SGD.
method Proved non-asymptotic bounds for M-SGD in Wasserstein distance.
result Error distribution of M-SGD is approximately Gaussian.
Subset selection for multiple linear regression aims to construct a regression model that minimizes errors by selecting a small number of explanatory variables. Once a model is built, various statistical tests and diagnostics are conducted to validate the model and to determine whether the regression assumptions are me…
Improved multi-task averaging reduces mean squared error in high-dimensional data.
problem Joint estimation of multiple distributions using independent data sets.
method Exploits similarities between tasks by shrinking naive estimators towards local averages.
result The method provides a significant reduction in mean squared error, especially in high-dimensional spaces.
Proposes MR estimator for unbiased recommendation models.
problem Data biases in recommender systems lead to inaccurate predictions.
method Introduces multiple robust (MR) learning approach combining multiple imputation and propensity models.
result MR estimator achieves unbiasedness when any of the models is accurate.
Recent research on multiple kernel learning has lead to a number of approaches for combining kernels in regularized risk minimization. The proposed approaches include different formulations of objectives and varying regularization strategies. In this paper we present a unifying general optimization criterion for multip…
Estimates multiple linear systems on a graph with smoothness constraints.
problem Joint estimation of multiple linear systems under graph smoothness constraints.
method Proposes estimators for joint estimation of system matrices with error bounds.
result MSE converges to zero as m increases, typically polynomially fast w.r.t m. Improved locally private sparse estimation with multiple samples per user.
problem Challenges in high-dimensional locally private sparse estimation.
method Proposes a framework for user-level locally private sparse linear regression with multiple samples per user.
result Eliminates the dependency of dimensionality on error bounds, achieving tighter error bounds.
New method selects best HTE estimator without ground-truth treatment effects.
problem Selecting best HTE estimator from multiple candidates.
method Cross-fitted, exponentially weighted test statistic with two-way sample splitting.
result Empirically, reliable error control and reduced false selections.
This paper analyzes AJIVE for estimating shared subspace across multiple datasets, revealing its strengths and limitations.
problem Estimating shared subspace across multiple datasets with varying degrees of misalignment.
method Angle-based Joint and Individual Variation Explained (AJIVE) method, a two-stage spectral approach.
result AJIVE's performance in high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) regimes and its non-diminishing error in low-SNR settings.
Sparse GCA finds linear relationships in multiple datasets, using gradient descent.
problem Finding linear relationships across multiple datasets with sparse loading vectors.
method Formulated as generalized eigenvalue problems, used a thresholded gradient descent algorithm.
result Proposed algorithm yields tight estimation error bounds and demonstrates effectiveness on synthetic datasets.
We address the problem of non-parametric multiple model comparison: given l candidate models, decide whether each candidate is as good as the best one(s) or worse than it. We propose two statistical tests, each controlling a different notion of decision errors. The first test, building on the post selection inference…
Statistical tests that compare classification algorithms are univariate and use a single performance measure, e.g., misclassification error, F measure, AUC, and so on. In multivariate tests, comparison is done using multiple measures simultaneously. For example, error is the sum of false positives and false negatives…
Efficient learning of minimax risk classifiers in high dimensions.
problem Efficient learning of classifiers in high-dimensional data.
method Iterative algorithm leveraging constraint generation methods for minimax risk classifiers.
result The algorithm provides efficient learning and feature selection in high-dimensional scenarios.
New loss function improves classification for imbalanced and sensitive groups.
problem Optimizing metrics like balanced error and equal opportunity in imbalanced and sensitive classification.
method Developed a principled vector-scaling (VS) loss function that addresses multiplicative adjustments necessary at terminal training phase.
result The VS loss function improves minority class performance and generalizes to different types of imbalances.
TCE measures calibration error with a test-based approach.
problem Measuring calibration error of probabilistic binary classifiers.
method TCE uses a novel loss function based on a statistical test.
result TCE offers clear interpretation, consistent scale, and enhanced visual representation.
One-pass algorithm finds small subset for ℓp subspace approximation with additive error.
problem Finding a small subset of data points for ℓp subspace approximation. method One-pass subset selection with additive approximation guarantee for p∈[1,∞). result First one-pass algorithm with additive error for ℓp subspace approximation. SimpleMKKM improves multi-kernel clustering efficiency.
problem Efficient multi-kernel clustering.
method Re-formulated minimization-maximization problem into a smooth minimization, solved with gradient descent.
result Outperforms state-of-the-art multi-kernel clustering alternatives.
New DMEM models forecast volatility combining low- and high-frequency data.
problem Modeling realized volatility with both short- and long-term features.
method Doubly Multiplicative Error (DMEM) models combining daily and long-term data.
result DMEM models outperform existing GARCH-type models in forecasting.
Sharp bounds on uniform generalization errors in binary linear classification.
problem Understanding the uniform generalization errors in binary linear classification.
method Isoperimetric arguments, Poincaré and log-Sobolev inequalities for joint distributions.
result Sharp concentration bounds on uniform generalization errors, almost sure convergence in broad settings.
Proposes a new SPVM model for RVM with more flexible priors.
problem Improper priors on multiple penalty parameters in RVM lead to improper posteriors.
method Introduces a single penalty approach (SPRVM) and a semi-Bayesian fitting method.
result SPRVM allows for more flexible priors and has proven conditions for posterior propriety.
Study introduces TeMoP model for better stock market predictions.
problem Decreasing prediction errors and robustness across datasets in machine learning models.
method Probabilistic multiple lag order model based on trend encoding.
result TeMoP model outperforms machine learning models in accuracy and stability across different stock indexes.
Method estimates LLM error rates using Pareto optimization.
problem Quantifying error rates in text-generating models.
method Pareto optimization for generating risk scores.
result Risk scores correlate well with true error rates.
Measurement error in the observed values of the variables can greatly change the output of various causal discovery methods. This problem has received much attention in multiple fields, but it is not clear to what extent the causal model for the measurement-error-free variables can be identified in the presence of meas…
New insights into training machine learning models with momentum.
problem Lack of theoretical understanding on the generalization error of momentum-based methods.
method Analyzed modified momentum-based update rule (SGDEM) for smooth Lipschitz loss functions.
result SGDEM admits an upper-bound on the generalization error for smooth Lipschitz loss functions.
Data-driven method for error estimation without needing class complexity.
problem Constructing confidence intervals for a class of estimates.
method Data-driven approach to derive high-probability upper bounds on maximum error.
result Method naturally adapts to unknown correlation structures and works for finite and infinite classes.
MEM models improve volatility forecasting in financial markets.
problem Improving volatility forecasting in financial markets.
method Multiplicative Error Model (MEM) framework for positive-valued time series.
result MEMs parsimoniously produce good forecasts of asset returns.
Context: Conducting experiments is central to research machine learning research to benchmark, evaluate and compare learning algorithms. Consequently it is important we conduct reliable, trustworthy experiments. Objective: We investigate the incidence of errors in a sample of machine learning experiments in the domain …
We analyze the sample complexity of learning from multiple experiments where the experimenter has a total budget for obtaining samples. In this problem, the learner should choose a hypothesis that performs well with respect to multiple experiments, and their related data distributions. Each collected sample is associat…