New algorithms detect and react to multiple change points in online learning.
problem Learning under multiple change points in environments with unknown and frequent shifts.
method Proposed Anytime Tracking CUSUM (ATC) algorithms that balance detection of significant shifts.
result Properly tuned ATC algorithms achieve nearly minimax-optimal performance.
New MIP approach for efficient change-point detection.
problem Offline multiple change-point detection in data streams.
method Mixed-integer programming (MIP) for globally optimal PWL fitting.
result Provable tighter relaxations for segment assignment variables.
Geometric pruning rules improve change point detection in multiple time series.
problem Detecting multiple changes in multiple independent time series.
method Dynamic programming algorithms with inequality-based and geometric pruning rules.
result Geometric pruning rules offer close-to-linear time complexity for multiple independent time series.
Online detection of abrupt changes in high-dimensional data streams.
problem Detecting abrupt changes in high-dimensional, streaming data with multiple subspaces.
method Dynamic sparse subspace learning approach with multiple structural change-point model, Bayesian information criterion for penalty coefficients selection, and Pruned Exact Linear Time algorithm.
result Effectiveness demonstrated through simulation and real gesture data studies.
The paper tackles efficient change point detection with limited samples.
problem Identifying multiple change points with minimal queries in noisy environments.
method Adaptive algorithm that first detects likely change points and refines their locations.
result The sample complexity is jointly governed by jump magnitudes and change point positions.
We present the group fused Lasso for detection of multiple change-points shared by a set of co-occurring one-dimensional signals. Change-points are detected by approximating the original signals with a constraint on the multidimensional total variation, leading to piecewise-constant approximations. Fast algorithms are …
Novel optimization method detects change points in Gaussian data.
problem Detecting change points in univariate Gaussian data sequences.
method Continuous optimization for best subset selection (COMBSS) applied to a reformulated statistical inverse problem.
result Adaptation and evaluation of COMBSS for offline normal mean multiple change-point detection.
We propose a probabilistic formulation that enables sequential detection of multiple change points in a network setting. We present a class of sequential detection rules for certain functionals of change points (minimum among a subset), and prove their asymptotic optimality properties in terms of expected detection del…
A new method detects changes in multivariate data using random forests.
problem Detecting changes in multivariate data.
method A computationally feasible search method using random forests and class probability predictions.
result Consistently locates change points in simulations.
Given a heterogeneous time-series sample, the objective is to find points in time (called change points) where the probability distribution generating the data has changed. The data are assumed to have been generated by arbitrary unknown stationary ergodic distributions. No modelling, independence or mixing assumptions…
Develops a method to detect changes in linear systems with temporal correlations.
problem Detect abrupt changes in time series data with temporal correlations.
method Data-dependent threshold for online change point detection in linear dynamical systems.
result Achieves a pre-specified upper bound on the probability of false alarms and provides a finite-sample-based bound for detection probability.
Paper extends SI method for detecting CPs in complex systems' frequency domain.
problem Identifying change points in complex systems' frequency domain.
method Extends SI framework to frequency domain using DFT properties and develops valid p-values.
result Reliable detection of genuine CPs with strong statistical guarantees.
New algorithm detects changes in high-dimensional data with mean and variance.
problem Challenges in detecting changes in high-dimensional data with mean and variance.
method Complete graph-based approach to detect changes of mean and variance from low to high-dimensional online data.
result The proposed method outperforms existing methods in terms of detection power.
A new method detects change points in time series with conceptors.
problem Detecting change points in time series with nonlinear temporal dependence.
method Use of conceptor matrix to learn baseline dynamics and identify change points.
result The method provides a consistent estimate of the true change point.
Online change-point detection (OCPD) is important for application in various areas such as finance, biology, and the Internet of Things (IoT). However, OCPD faces major challenges due to high-dimensionality, and it is still rarely studied in literature. In this paper, we propose a novel, online, graph-based, change-poi…
A method identifies abrupt changes in functions with fixed confidence under noisy feedback.
problem Identifying abrupt changes in piecewise constant functions quickly and with certainty.
method Fixed-confidence piecewise constant bandit problem, focusing sampling efforts near change points.
result Asymptotically optimal method proven computationally efficient and effective in experiments.
Evaluates change point detection algorithms on real-world data.
problem Insufficient evaluation of change point detection algorithms on real-world time series.
method Developed a data set of 37 time series from various domains, annotated by human experts, and evaluated 14 algorithms using consistency metrics.
result Demonstrates the need for better evaluation methods in change point detection.
A method detects changes in heterogeneous data streams over graph nodes.
problem Detecting changes in data streams from nodes of a graph.
method Online non-parametric method using likelihood-ratio estimation.
result The method accurately identifies change-points in real-world applications.
New method for valid and exact statistical inference of multi-dimensional change-points.
problem Statistical inference of change-points in multi-dimensional sequences.
method Proposes a method to guarantee the statistical reliability of both location and components of detected changes.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of the method in genomic abnormality identification and human behavior analysis.
In this paper we study the setting where features are added or change interpretation over time, which has applications in multiple domains such as retail, manufacturing, finance. In particular, we propose an approach to provably determine the time instant from which the new/changed features start becoming relevant with…
Improved hypothesis testing and change-point detection using diffusion-based methods.
problem Limited power of score-based hypothesis tests and change-point detection.
method Extending score-based Fisher divergence to diffusion-divergence by multiplying score functions with a matrix-valued function or weight matrix.
result Theoretical quantification and demonstration of optimal performance of diffusion-based algorithms.
New method for fast volatility estimation robust to change points.
problem Robust high-frequency volatility estimation with change points.
method ℓ1-regularized power variation estimators using LARS for sparse estimation and dynamic programming for change point refinement.
result Minimax rates achieved for volatility estimators, providing accurate and smooth forecasts.
In the analysis of sequential data, the detection of abrupt changes is important in predicting future changes. In this paper, we propose statistical hypothesis tests for detecting covariance structure changes in locally smooth time series modeled by Gaussian Processes (GPs). We provide theoretically justified threshold…
This paper solves a Bayes sequential impulse control problem for a diffusion, whose drift has an unobservable parameter with a change point. The partially-observed problem is reformulated into one with full observations, via a change of probability measure which removes the drift. The optimal impulse controls can be ex…
Detects change points in time series focusing on specific components.
problem Identifying moments when specific components of multivariate time series change distributions.
method Two-stage non-parametric algorithm: causal structure learning followed by change point detection.
result Validated the approach on synthetic and real-world datasets.
New framework for regression trees with multivariate response and dynamic mean vectors.
problem Characterizing and implementing regression trees for multivariate responses.
method High dimensional model with dynamic mean vectors over multi-dimensional change axes.
result Optimal rate of convergence and asymptotic valid confidence intervals for change points.
Optimal search for change point anomaly in multiple processes.
problem Detecting a change point in an anomalous process among multiple normal processes.
method Deterministic search algorithm balancing sample complexity and detection accuracy.
result Asymptotically optimal in minimizing Bayes risk.
This work focuses on the estimation of multiple change-points in a time-varying Ising model that evolves piece-wise constantly. The aim is to identify both the moments at which significant changes occur in the Ising model, as well as the underlying graph structures. For this purpose, we propose to estimate the neighbor…
Bayesian method adapts to unknown distribution shifts in online learning.
problem Online learning with unknown and irregular distribution shifts.
method Bayesian inference with change-point detection and beam search.
result Improves adaptation to new data distributions over state-of-the-art methods.
Framework detects changes in causal dependence between variables.
problem Detecting changes in causal dependence between variables in the presence of confounders.
method Non-parametric approach using kernel mean embeddings and copulas.
result Proposed statistic accurately detects changes in causal dependence.
Given a finite sequence of graphs, e.g., coming from technological, biological, and social networks, the paper proposes a methodology to identify possible changes in stationarity in the stochastic process generating the graphs. In order to cover a large class of applications, we consider the general family of attribute…
New RL method tackles dynamic, heterogeneous data.
problem Temporal non-stationarity and subject heterogeneity in reinforcement learning.
method Alternates between change point detection and cluster identification.
result Improves policy learning by detecting similar dynamics over time and across individuals.
The present paper aims at locating the breakings of the integration process of an international system observed during about 50 years in the 19th century. A historical study could link them to special events, which operated as exogenous shocks on this process. The indicator of integration used is the spread between the…
In this paper, we consider sequential online prediction (SOP) for streaming data in the presence of outliers and change points. We propose an INstant TEmporal structure Learning (INTEL) algorithm to address this problem. Our INTEL algorithm is developed based on a full consideration of the duality between online predic…
Unified framework detects changes in complex system models.
problem Accurate identification of dynamic changes in simulation models.
method Combines machine learning and process-driven simulation modeling.
result Significantly improves change point detection accuracy.
The accurate prediction of time-changing covariances is an important problem in the modeling of multivariate financial data. However, some of the most popular models suffer from a) overfitting problems and multiple local optima, b) failure to capture shifts in market conditions and c) large computational costs. To addr…
This work introduces robust counterfactuals for neural networks that remain valid after minor model changes.
problem Generating counterfactual explanations that are robust to slight model changes.
method Introduces a measure called Stability to quantify robustness of counterfactuals to potential model changes, and proposes practical relaxations.
result Counterfactuals with high Stability remain valid after potential model changes with high probability.
Change-point analysis is a flexible and computationally tractable tool for the analysis of times series data from systems that transition between discrete states and whose observables are corrupted by noise. The change-point algorithm is used to identify the time indices (change points) at which the system transitions …
The paper develops a new formula for financial pricing under multiple interest rates and collateralization.
problem Financial pricing under multiple interest rates and collateralization.
method Derives a change of measure formula for recursive conditional expectations in a jump-diffusion setting.
result Generalizes the change of numéraire technique for multiple interest rates and collateralization.
Several statistical approaches based on reproducing kernels have been proposed to detect abrupt changes arising in the full distribution of the observations and not only in the mean or variance. Some of these approaches enjoy good statistical properties (oracle inequality, \ldots). Nonetheless, they have a high computa…
We consider the problem of quickest change-point detection in data streams. Classical change-point detection procedures, such as CUSUM, Shiryaev-Roberts and Posterior Probability statistics, are optimal only if the change-point model is known, which is an unrealistic assumption in typical applied problems. Instead we p…
Paper presents neural network-based change-point detection methods.
problem Detecting change points in time series data.
method Online neural networks for change-point detection.
result Proposed methods outperform existing algorithms.
GOCPD detects change points by maximizing the probability of two independent models.
problem Large false discovery rates in online change point detection methods.
method GOCPD uses ternary search to find change points by maximizing the probability of two independent models.
result GOCPD accelerates CPD with logarithmic complexity for single change point detection.
The term "special biconformal change" refers, basically, to the situation where a given nontrivial real-holomorphic vector field on a complex manifold is a gradient relative to two Kähler metrics, and, simultaneously, an eigenvector of one of the metrics treated, with the aid of the other, as an endomorphism of the tan…
Method tracks change-points in crypto-assets extremes.
problem Tracking change-points in multivariate extremes.
method Statistical method for modeling change-points on crypto-assets extremes.
result Developed a method to track crypto-assets extremes.
New method learns cell trajectories from multiple snapshots.
problem Inferring cell trajectories from limited, single-time-point data.
method Multi-marginal Schrödinger Bridges with iterative reference refinement.
result Effective in capturing long-term dependencies and learning from multiple time points.
SoccerCPD detects tactical changes in soccer matches using spatiotemporal tracking data.
problem Detecting consistent team formations in fluid sports like soccer.
method Two-step change-point detection: formation and role changes.
result Accurately detects tactical changes and estimates formation and role assignments.
Cross-validation pitfalls in change-point regression are addressed with new approaches.
problem Cross-validation's prediction error-based criterion may lead to under- or over-estimation of change-points.
method Proposes two approaches: absolute error loss and modified holdout sets.
result Consistent estimation of the number of change-points under certain conditions.