To model categorical response variables given their covariates, we propose a permuted and augmented stick-breaking (paSB) construction that one-to-one maps the observed categories to randomly permuted latent sticks. This new construction transforms multinomial regression into regression analysis of stick-specific binar…
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48 results for “multinomial probabilities”
The abstract reviews models for analyzing count data.
problem Challenges in analyzing count data with standard methods.
method Review of generalized linear models and multinomial models.
result Fundamental connections between multinomial and count models.
The paper develops approximations for Pearson's chi-square statistic and applies them to confidence intervals.
problem Finding confidence intervals for strictly convex functions of discrete distribution weights.
method Non-asymptotic local normal approximation for multinomial probabilities, deriving bounds and coupling inequalities.
result Developed methods to find confidence intervals for negative entropy of discrete distributions.
FJS method improves multinomial classification accuracy.
problem Improving multinomial classification accuracy under dataset shift.
method Derive FJS representation and propose alternative methods.
result Factorizable joint shift is not fully identifiable without additional assumptions.
We propose the nuclear norm penalty as an alternative to the ridge penalty for regularized multinomial regression. This convex relaxation of reduced-rank multinomial regression has the advantage of leveraging underlying structure among the response categories to make better predictions. We apply our method, nuclear pen…
SJS model predicts label shifts in multinomial datasets.
problem Predicting label shifts in multinomial datasets.
method Sparse joint shift model for dataset shift.
result Valid predictions and class prior probabilities estimates.
We give an exposition and numerical studies of upper hedging prices in multinomial models from the viewpoint of linear programming and the game-theoretic probability of Shafer and Vovk. We also show that, as the number of rounds goes to infinity, the upper hedging price of a European option converges to the solution of…
We improve random forest consistency and performance with DMRF, a new variant.
problem Improving the consistency and performance of random forest models.
method Developed DMRF, a data-driven multinomial random forest, by modifying proof methods and improving data utilization.
result DMRF achieves strong consistency with probability 1, surpassing previous models in classification tasks.
Don't Throw Away Your Beams: Improving Consistency-based Uncertainties in LLMs via Beam Searchstat.ML
Beam search improves UQ in LLMs by reducing duplicates and variance.
problem Peaked distributions in multinomial sampling lead to duplicates and high variance in uncertainty estimates.
method Employ beam search to generate candidates for consistency-based UQ, providing a theoretical lower bound and empirical evaluation.
result Beam search achieves smaller error than multinomial sampling, leading to state-of-the-art UQ performance.
New test for comparing high-dimensional text data.
problem Testing equality of multinomial distributions in high dimensions.
method Proposed a test statistic with asymptotic normality under null.
result Achieves optimal detection boundary across parameter space.
Dropout has been witnessed with great success in training deep neural networks by independently zeroing out the outputs of neurons at random. It has also received a surge of interest for shallow learning, e.g., logistic regression. However, the independent sampling for dropout could be suboptimal for the sake of conver…
Hierarchical mixtures of Unigram models for short text clustering: The role of Beta-Liouville priorsstat.ML
Paper introduces a new text clustering model using Beta-Liouville priors.
problem Clustering short text data.
method Develops a hierarchical mixture model with Beta-Liouville priors for short text clustering.
result The Beta-Liouville distribution offers a more flexible correlation structure for short text clustering.
New CPS model tackles conditional probability shift in machine learning.
problem Discrepancy between source and target distributions in machine learning.
method Conditional Probability Shift Model (CPSM) using multinomial regression and EM algorithm.
result Superior balanced classification accuracy on target data compared to existing methods.
Efficient RL algorithm for multinomial logistic MDPs with provable guarantees.
problem Model-based RL for episodic MDPs with unknown transition probabilities.
method Upper confidence bound-based algorithm for exploration-exploitation balance.
result Achieves regret bound for multinomial logistic models.
A Class of Conjugate Priors for Multinomial Probit Models which Includes the Multivariate Normal Onestat.ME
New conjugate priors improve Bayesian inference for multinomial probit models.
problem Lack of tractable conjugate priors for efficient Bayesian inference in multinomial probit models.
method Unified skew-normal (SUN) distributions as conjugate priors, leading to improved posterior inference and classification.
result Improved computational methods for posterior inference and classification, especially in high dimensions.
Fast Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Supervised Classification for the Beta-Liouville Multinomialstat.ML
Efficiently models categorical data with low to medium class overlap, improving accuracy over standard distributions.
problem Poor parameter estimates and accuracy in multinomial and Dirichlet multinomial distributions when assumptions are violated.
method Introduces Beta-Liouville multinomial distribution and efficient estimation methods.
result Beta-Liouville multinomial outperforms standard distributions on two out of four datasets.
DMNL bandits optimize assortment choices balancing relevance and diversity.
problem Balancing relevance-driven choice with within-assortment diversity.
method Augments MNL choice probabilities with a submodular diversity function, proposing a white-box UCB-based algorithm.
result Achieves at least a -approximate regret bound of $ ilde{O}\left(d \sqrt{T/K}
ight)$.
We improve MoE models for classification with rigorous guarantees and practical methods.
problem Limited guarantees for stable maximum-likelihood training and model selection in softmax-gated MoE models.
method Derived a batch MM algorithm with closed-form updates, proved finite-sample rates, and developed a dendrogram selector.
result Achieved near-parametric optimal rates for parameter recovery and improved accuracy over baselines.
The paper develops optimal confidence regions for categorical data.
problem Constructing tight confidence regions for categorical data.
method Develops new theory for minimum average volume confidence regions.
result Shows optimality of the regions for categorical data and its implications for machine learning.
New algorithm for maximizing revenue in multinomial logistic bandits.
problem Maximizing revenue in scenarios with multiple outcomes.
method MNL-UCB algorithm based on upper confidence bounds.
result Achieves regret with small dependency on constants.
Study on inequalities for multinomial variables.
problem Understanding concentration inequalities for multinomial variables.
method Investigation of Dirichlet and Multinomial random variables.
result Results on concentration inequalities for multinomial variables.
Develops a measure for checking cluster quality using multinomial distribution.
problem Determining the true number of clusters in a sample.
method Applying multinomial distribution to distances of data members from their cluster representatives.
result Demonstrates the capability to identify if a sample has inherent clusters.
Hierarchical Multinomial-Dirichlet model for the estimation of conditional probability tablesstat.ML
We present a novel approach for estimating conditional probability tables, based on a joint, rather than independent, estimate of the conditional distributions belonging to the same table. We derive exact analytical expressions for the estimators and we analyse their properties both analytically and via simulation. We …
PIANO speeds up multinomial logistic regression solving.
problem Handling large datasets and many classes in logistic regression.
method Parallel iterative algorithm based on Majorization Minimization.
result PIANO converges to a stationary point of Multinomial and Sparse Multinomial Logistic Regression.
The paper proposes a method to test properties of the optimal assortment in multinomial logit models.
problem Uncertainty quantification for the optimal assortment in multinomial logit models.
method The paper proposes a novel inferential framework to test properties of the optimal assortment in multinomial logit models, reducing the problem to detecting the sign change point of marginal revenue gaps.
result The asymptotic normality of the marginal revenue gap estimator and the construction of a maximum statistic to detect the sign change point.
Log-concavity proven for multinomial likelihoods under specific constraints.
problem Log-concavity of multinomial likelihoods under interval censoring constraints.
method Proved log-concavity by showing M-convex subsets of the discrete simplex.
result Likelihood function is completely log-concave.
PQMass assesses generative model quality using chi-squared tests.
problem Assessing the quality of generative models without density assumptions.
method Divides sample space into regions, applies chi-squared tests to p-values.
result Effectively assesses generative model quality, novelty, and diversity.
New method tests risk measures for various distortions.
problem Testing risk measures for different distortions.
method Stratification and randomization of risk levels.
result Method performs well in numerical case studies.
New Gamma-Poisson model improves topic selection for short text.
problem Topic modelling for short text using Poisson distribution.
method Gamma-Poisson mixture model with collapsed Gibbs sampler.
result Gamma-Poisson model selects more accurate number of topics.
The sparse group lasso optimization problem is solved using a coordinate gradient descent algorithm. The algorithm is applicable to a broad class of convex loss functions. Convergence of the algorithm is established, and the algorithm is used to investigate the performance of the multinomial sparse group lasso classifi…
Many practical modeling problems involve discrete data that are best represented as draws from multinomial or categorical distributions. For example, nucleotides in a DNA sequence, children's names in a given state and year, and text documents are all commonly modeled with multinomial distributions. In all of these cas…
The traditional Minkowski distances are induced by the corresponding Minkowski norms in real-valued vector spaces. In this work, we propose novel statistical symmetric distances based on the Minkowski's inequality for probability densities belonging to Lebesgue spaces. These statistical Minkowski distances admit closed…
Sparse multinomial logistic regression for multiclass classification with feature selection.
problem High-dimensional multiclass classification with a focus on sparse models.
method Penalized maximum likelihood with complexity penalty, feature selection using group Lasso and Slope classifiers.
result Achievement of minimax order in both small and large number of classes regimes.
Many text classification tasks are known to be highly domain-dependent. Unfortunately, the availability of training data can vary drastically across domains. Worse still, for some domains there may not be any annotated data at all. In this work, we propose a multinomial adversarial network (MAN) to tackle the text clas…
Two algorithms achieve optimal regret with limited adaptivity in multinomial logistic bandits.
problem Achieving optimal regret with limited adaptivity in multinomial logistic bandits.
method Presented two algorithms, B-MNL-CB and RS-MNL, for batched and rarely-switching paradigms.
result Achieved regret with limited adaptivity.
The paper proves asymptotic normality for multinomial logistic regression on null covariates.
problem Classical asymptotic normality results fail in high-dimensional multinomial logistic models.
method Developed asymptotic normality and chi-square results for multinomial logistic MLE on null covariates.
result Validated new methodology to test feature significance in high-dimensional classification problems.
New algorithm reduces switching costs in multinomial logit bandit problems.
problem Minimizing switching costs in multinomial logit bandit problems.
method Proposed AT-DUCB and FH-DUCB algorithms with low assortment switching costs.
result AT-DUCB and FH-DUCB algorithms achieve almost optimal minimax regret with low switching costs.
Deviance-style normalization for sparse, jointly overdispersed count matrices
problem Jointly overdispersed count matrices
method Dirichlet-multinomial deviance residualization
result Preserves exact sparsity, evaluates in constant time, recovers multinomial residual
Multinomial logistic model for coinfection diagnosis between arbovirus and malaria in Kedougoustat.AP
In tropical regions, populations continue to suffer morbidity and mortality from malaria and arboviral diseases. In Kedougou (Senegal), these illnesses are all endemic due to the climate and its geographical position. The co-circulation of malaria parasites and arboviruses can explain the observation of coinfected case…
Paper introduces new methods for modeling categorical data.
problem Training generative models on categorical data like text and segmentation.
method Argmax Flows and Multinomial Diffusion models.
result Models outperform existing methods in log-likelihood.
This article proposes Multinomial Probit Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (MPBART) as a multinomial probit extension of BART - Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (Chipman et al (2010)). MPBART is flexible to allow inclusion of predictors that describe the observed units as well as the available choice alternatives. T…
Enhances random forest consistency and introduces DMRF for improved performance.
problem Improving the consistency and efficiency of random forest algorithms.
method Strengthened proof methods and propose DMRF algorithm.
result DMRF achieves better theoretical and experimental performance than previous variants.
Partition functions of probability distributions are important quantities for model evaluation and comparisons. We present a new method to compute partition functions of complex and multimodal distributions. Such distributions are often sampled using simulated tempering, which augments the target space with an auxiliar…
The paper proposes an efficient method to scale Bayesian inference for mixed multinomial logit models to very large datasets.
problem Efficiency in Bayesian inference for mixed multinomial logit models on large datasets.
method Amortized Variational Inference with stochastic backpropagation, automatic differentiation, and GPU acceleration.
result The proposed method achieves significant computational speedups over traditional methods for large datasets.
Proposes a new model for context-dependent decision-making.
problem Constant preference parameters in decision models are too rigid.
method Introduces Context-aware Bayesian mixed multinomial logit model using neural networks.
result Models context-dependent intra-respondent heterogeneity effectively.
A model selection approach for clustering a multinomial sequence with non-negative factorizationstat.ML
We consider a problem of clustering a sequence of multinomial observations by way of a model selection criterion. We propose a form of a penalty term for the model selection procedure. Our approach subsumes both the conventional AIC and BIC criteria but also extends the conventional criteria in a way that it can be app…
New method calculates DMN log-likelihood faster.
problem Precise and fast computation of DMN log-likelihood.
method Derived a closed form expression using gamma function properties.
result Closed form calculation is faster with same accuracy.
We study the active learning problem of top- ranking from multi-wise comparisons under the popular multinomial logit model. Our goal is to identify the top- items with high probability by adaptively querying sets for comparisons and observing the noisy output of the most preferred item from each comparison. To ac…