arXiv research

A new method for direct determination of multifractal spectrum from moving average analysis.

The detrending moving average (DMA) algorithm is a widely used technique to quantify the long-term correlations of non-stationary time series and the long-range correlations of fractal surfaces, which contains a parameter $θ$ determining the position of the detrending window. We develop multifractal detrending moving a…

Study finds long-term linear correlations in Chinese stock order aggressiveness.

Intertrade duration of equities is an important financial measure characterizing the trading activities, which is defined as the waiting time between successive trades of an equity. Using the ultrahigh-frequency data of a liquid Chinese stock and its associated warrant, we perform a comparative investigation of the sta…

There are a number of situations in which several signals are simultaneously recorded in complex systems, which exhibit long-term power-law cross-correlations. The multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA) approaches can be used to quantify such cross-correlations, such as the MF-DCCA based on detrend…

Model allocates portfolios based on multifractal cross-correlations across different scales.

Study finds multifractal cross-correlations between agricultural markets and external uncertainties.

Order cancellation process plays a crucial role in the dynamics of price formation in order-driven stock markets and is important in the construction and validation of computational finance models. Based on the order flow data of 18 liquid stocks traded on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2003, we investigate the empiric…

Study finds intrinsic multifractality in maize and barley spot markets, but not in wheat and rice.

An average instantaneous cross-correlation function is introduced to quantify the interaction of the financial market of a specific time. Based on the daily data of the American and Chinese stock markets, memory effect of the average instantaneous cross-correlations is investigated over different price return time inte…

Study on cryptocurrency trading patterns using multifractal analysis.

Study uses multifractal detrended cross-correlation to detect Forex arbitrage opportunities.

It is ubiquitous in natural and social sciences that two variables, recorded temporally or spatially in a complex system, are cross-correlated and possess multifractal features. We propose a new method called multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DXA) to investigate the multifractal behaviors in the pow…

Multifractal time series analysis is a approach that shows the possible complexity of the system. Nowadays, one of the most popular and the best methods for determining multifractal characteristics is Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MFDFA). However, it has some drawback. One of its core elements is detrend…

The miltifractal properties and scaling behaviour of the exchange rate variations of the Iranian rial against the US dollar from a daily perspective is numerically investigated. For this purpose the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) is used. Through multifractal analysis, the scaling exponents, gener…

Wavelet analysis reveals limitations in detecting multifractality in signals with isolated singularities.

In the paper, we introduce a new measure of correlation between possibly non-stationary series. As the measure is based on the detrending moving-average cross-correlation analysis (DMCA), we label it as the DMCA coefficient $ρ_{DMCA}(λ)$ with a moving average window length $λ$. We analytically show that the coefficient…

The Hurst exponent $H$ of long range correlated series can be estimated by means of the Detrending Moving Average (DMA) method. A computational tool defined within the algorithm is the generalized variance $σ_{DMA}^2={1}/{(N-n)}\sum_i [y(i)-\widetilde{y}_n(i)]^2\:$, with $\widetilde{y}_n(i)= {1}/{n}\sum_{k}y(i-k)$ the…

The performance of the multifractal detrended analysis on short time series is evaluated for synthetic samples of several mono- and multifractal models. The reconstruction of the generalized Hurst exponents is used to determine the range of applicability of the method and the precision of its results as a function of t…

Study examines multifractality in European power loads over 5 years.

The multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis technique is employed to analyze the time series of gold consumer price index (CPI) and the market trend of three world's highest gold consuming countries, namely China, India and Turkey for the period: 1993-July 2013. Various multifractal variables, such as the generaliz…

New method detects intrinsic cross-correlations in non-stationary time series affected by common factors.

New analysis reveals multi-branched multifractality in time series.

Bid-ask spread is taken as an important measure of the financial market liquidity. In this article, we study the dynamics of the spread return and the spread volatility of four liquid stocks in the Chinese stock market, including the memory effect and the multifractal nature. By investigating the autocorrelation functi…

The intraday pattern, long memory, and multifractal nature of the intertrade durations, which are defined as the waiting times between two consecutive transactions, are investigated based upon the limit order book data and order flows of 23 liquid Chinese stocks listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2003. An inverse…

New methods improve cross-correlation analysis of time series data.

New method estimates robust multi-period portfolios using entropy.

In this paper, we show how the sampling properties of the Hurst exponent methods of estimation change with the presence of heavy tails. We run extensive Monte Carlo simulations to find out how rescaled range analysis (R/S), multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA), detrending moving average (DMA) and genera…

When common factors strongly influence two power-law cross-correlated time series recorded in complex natural or social systems, using classic detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA) without considering these common factors will bias the results. We use detrended partial cross-correlation analysis (DPXA) to uncover…

Notwithstanding the significant efforts to develop estimators of long-range correlations (LRC) and to compare their performance, no clear consensus exists on what is the best method and under which conditions. In addition, synthetic tests suggest that the performance of LRC estimators varies when using different genera…

We investigate the temporal correlations and multifractal nature of trading volume of 22 liquid stocks traded on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2003. We find that the trading volume exhibit size-dependent non-universal long memory and multifractal nature. No crossover in the power-law dependence of the detrended fluctu…

Different variants of MFDFA technique are applied in order to investigate various (artificial and real-world) time series. Our analysis shows that the calculated singularity spectra are very sensitive to the order of the detrending polynomial used within the MFDFA method. The relation between the width of the multifrac…

Detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) is a simple but very efficient method for investigating the power-law long-term correlations of non-stationary time series, in which a detrending step is necessary to obtain the local fluctuations at different timescales. We propose to determine the local trends through empirical mo…

Study uses detrended cross-correlation to analyze cryptocurrency market, revealing robust collective modes and distinguishing interdependencies.

We study the nature of fluctuations in variety of price indices involving companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange. The fluctuations at multiple scales are extracted through the use of wavelets belonging to Daubechies basis. The fact that these basis sets satisfy vanishing moments conditions makes them ideal to …

We propose a novel algorithm - Multifractal Cross-Correlation Analysis (MFCCA) - that constitutes a consistent extension of the Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (DCCA) and is able to properly identify and quantify subtle characteristics of multifractal cross-correlations between two time series. Our motivation for …

The statistical properties of the bid-ask spread of a frequently traded Chinese stock listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange are investigated using the limit-order book data. Three different definitions of spread are considered based on the time right before transactions, the time whenever the highest buying price or th…

Study reveals multifractal nature in Chinese stock markets and predicts future returns.

We investigate the presence of residual multifractal background for monofractal signals which appears due to the finite length of the signals and (or) due to the long memory the signals reveal. This phenomenon is investigated numerically within the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) for artificially g…

Recently the statistical characterizations of financial markets based on physics concepts and methods attract considerable attentions. We used two possible procedures of analyzing multifractal properties of a time series. The first one uses the continuous wavelet transform and extracts scaling exponents from the wavele…

Study shows how COVID-19 pandemic affected China's crude oil futures market efficiency.

Study finds Bitcoin volatility exhibits roughness, not constant over time.

We extend our previous study of scaling range properties done for detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) \cite{former_paper} to other techniques of fluctuation analysis (FA). The new technique called Modified Detrended Moving Average Analysis (MDMA) is introduced and its scaling range properties are examined and compared…

Long-range correlation and fluctuation in the gold market time series of world's two leading gold consuming countries, namely China and India, are studied. For both the market series during the period 1985-2013 we observe a long-range persistence of memory in the sequences of maxima (minima) of returns in successive ti…

Paper finds significant impact of stock market swings on equity risk premium predictability.

Investigates statistical properties and multifractality of Bitcoin prices.

Analyzed Bitcoin market index volatility changes over two distinct periods using anomalous diffusion and multifractal analysis.

Study on oil price's multifractal cross-correlations with other financial markets.