Conventional multiclass conditional probability estimation methods, such as Fisher's discriminate analysis and logistic regression, often require restrictive distributional model assumption. In this paper, a model-free estimation method is proposed to estimate multiclass conditional probability through a series of cond…
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48 results for “multiclass probability estimation”
New linear algorithms improve wSVMs for multiclass probability estimation.
problem Estimating conditional probabilities for multiclass problems.
method Proposed baseline learning and OVA learning schemes to improve wSVMs.
result Linear algorithms achieve optimal computational efficiency and good estimation accuracy.
In-Context Learning as Nonparametric Conditional Probability Estimation: Risk Bounds and Optimalitystat.ML
Paper analyzes risk bounds for in-context learning in multiclass classification.
problem Risk bounds for in-context learning in multiclass classification.
method Formalizes tasks as sequences of labeled examples and queries, estimates conditional class probabilities, establishes oracle inequality for KL divergence.
result ICL achieves minimax optimal rate for conditional probability estimation.
A new method learns proper multiclass losses and probabilities.
problem Learning proper multiclass losses for complex classification tasks.
method Extends monotonicity to multiclass problems using convex functions.
result Consistently outperforms natural multiclass baseline on up to 1,000 class datasets.
We study the problem of supervised learning for both binary and multiclass classification from a unified geometric perspective. In particular, we propose a geometric regularization technique to find the submanifold corresponding to a robust estimator of the class probability . The regularization term meas…
New methods detect unfairness in multiclass classifiers using DCP.
problem Detecting unfairness in multiclass classifiers.
method Generalizes DCP to multiclass, provides optimization methods.
result Detects classifiers treating a significant fraction of the population unfairly.
Paper tackles noisy bandit feedback for multiclass classification.
problem Learning multiclass classifier with corrupted feedback.
method Proposes an unbiased estimator technique to estimate noise rates and an end-to-end framework.
result Algorithm achieves mistake bounds of in high noise and in worst case.
This research tackles multiclass classification by introducing a method for label ranking.
problem The challenge is to predict a sorted list of labels based on input features.
method Inspired by ranking median regression, the One-Versus-One (OVO) approach is used to achieve optimal ranking.
result The OVO approach yields an optimal ranking of labels with overwhelming probability under noise conditions.
Distillation improves simple models by approximating complex labels.
problem Why does distillation improve simple models?
method Statistical perspective on distillation, connecting to extreme multiclass retrieval.
result Distillation helps by approximating underlying class-probabilities, reducing bias and variance.
Geometry-aware KDE model improves multiclass quantification.
problem Accurately estimating class prevalence for label shift adaptation.
method Log-ratio representations and Aitchison geometry for compositional data, shrinkage regularization.
result Competitive with state-of-the-art quantifiers, often improving over standard KDE-based baselines.
Develops NPMC method for noisy labels, improving multiclass classification accuracy.
problem Asymmetric misclassification costs and label noise in multiclass classification.
method Empirical likelihood approach using exponential tilting density ratio model.
result Root n consistent and asymptotically normal estimators for clean labels and noise mechanism.
Paper proposes a new method to quantify uncertainty in machine learning models.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in multiclass classification models.
method Distance-based approach using Integral Probability Metrics (IPMs).
result Effective uncertainty measures for multiclass classification.
A Fourier-based learning algorithm for multiclass classification.
problem Highly nonlinear multiclass classification problems.
method Smoothing technique with low-pass filters to calculate probability distributions.
result Probabilistic explanation for classification without kernel functions.
A new KDE-based method improves multiclass quantification.
problem Quantifying class prevalence in multiclass settings.
method Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) for multivariate densities.
result KDEy method yields superior quantification performance.
Class probabilities predicted by most multiclass classifiers are uncalibrated, often tending towards over-confidence. With neural networks, calibration can be improved by temperature scaling, a method to learn a single corrective multiplicative factor for inputs to the last softmax layer. On non-neural models the exist…
We consider composite loss functions for multiclass prediction comprising a proper (i.e., Fisher-consistent) loss over probability distributions and an inverse link function. We establish conditions for their (strong) convexity and explore the implications. We also show how the separation of concerns afforded by using …
This work extends implicit bias analysis to multiclass classification using a new loss framework.
problem The implicit bias of gradient descent on multiclass data without explicit regularization.
method Employing the PERM framework to introduce a multiclass extension of the exponential tail property.
result Extended implicit bias result to multiclass classification using a new loss framework.
New algorithms reduce sample complexity for multiclass contextual bandits.
problem Designing efficient algorithms for multiclass contextual bandits with sparse rewards.
method Two complementary approaches: decision-estimation coefficient analysis and low-variance exploration.
result Achieved optimal sample complexity bounds for multiclass contextual bandits.
Proposes top-label calibration and M2B framework for multiclass to binary calibration.
problem Multiclass calibration and interpretation issues.
method Top-label calibration and M2B reduction framework.
result M2B + HB achieves lower calibration error than other methods.
Proposes MCLLO for assessing and recalibrating multiclass probability predictions.
problem Limited multicategory recalibration methods for assessing and comparing model calibration.
method MCLLO recalibration method that assesses calibration without model access and is easy to interpret.
result MCLLO outperforms other methods in simulations and real-world case studies.
New method calibrates machine learning models with theoretical guarantees.
problem Lack of theoretical guarantees for recalibration in multiclass classification.
method PAC-Bayes analysis for generalization error in calibration.
result First optimizable upper bound for generalization error in calibration.
Proposes a stable classifier using inflated argmax for multiclass classification.
problem Inherent instability of taking the maximizer in multiclass classification.
method Bagging for stable continuous scores, inflated argmax for stable labels.
result Inflated argmax provides necessary protection against unstable classifiers without loss of accuracy.
Study computable multiclass learning within PAC framework.
problem Computable multiclass learnability in finite label space.
method Proposed computable version of Natarajan dimension and generalized to distinguishers.
result Characterizes CPAC learnability for certain dimensions and embeddings.
New truthful calibration errors improve model ranking in multiclass prediction.
problem Non-truthful calibration errors can mislead model comparisons.
method Introduced perfectly truthful calibration errors for multiclass predictions.
result Truthful calibration errors preserve decision-theoretic dominance and stabilize model rankings.
CalArena benchmarks post-hoc calibration methods across various tasks.
problem Inconsistent evaluations of post-hoc calibration methods.
method Large-scale benchmark with 2000 experiments, covering diverse models and settings.
result Smooth calibration functions outperform binning-based approaches.
Study builds a classifier for diffusions with unknown diffusion but known drifts.
problem Multiclass classification of S.D.E. paths with unknown diffusion coefficient.
method Plug-in classifier using nonparametric estimators of drift and diffusion functions.
result Consistent classification procedure with rate of convergence under different assumptions.
DACE estimates covariance from compressed data, improving accuracy.
problem Estimating covariance from large, distributed data.
method Data-aware weighted sampling for unbiased estimation.
result DACE provides more accurate covariance estimation under compression.
Unified approach to multiclass classification using Gabriel graphs.
problem Improving multiclass classification accuracy and efficiency.
method Integrates Gabriel graphs for binary and multiclass classification, proposing new activation functions and support edge neurons.
result Experimental results show superior performance compared to previous GG-based classifiers.
Develops a functional mix-of-experts model for multiclass classification.
problem Multiclass classification with univariate functional predictors.
method Functional mix-of-experts model with regularization and sparsity constraints.
result Regularized maximum likelihood estimation yields interpretable coefficient functions.
Class imbalance presents a major hurdle in the application of data mining methods. A common practice to deal with it is to create ensembles of classifiers that learn from resampled balanced data. For example, bagged decision trees combined with random undersampling (RUS) or the synthetic minority oversampling technique…
Proposes a new method for likelihood-to-evidence ratio estimation.
problem Inherent bias in multiclass ratio estimation framework.
method Contrastive Neural Ratio Estimation (C-NeR) framework.
result C-NeR framework removes bias and improves diagnostic reliability.
A new L2D system produces calibrated probabilities of expert correctness without sacrificing accuracy.
problem Calibration of learning to defer systems for safety.
method One-vs-all classifiers with a consistent surrogate loss function.
result Proposes a calibrated L2D system that outperforms existing methods in accuracy and calibration.
Statistical Query Hardness of Multiclass Linear Classification with Random Classification Noisecs.LG
Study shows SQ hardness for multiclass linear classification with random noise.
problem Complexity of multiclass linear classification with random noise.
method Proves super-polynomial SQ lower bounds for MLC with RCN.
result Super-polynomial SQ lower bounds for MLC with RCN.
We extend a variational framework to estimate calibration errors for divergences.
problem Ensuring predicted probabilities match observed class frequencies in machine learning.
method Extend variational framework to divergences, separating over- and under-confidence.
result Avoids overestimation and separates over- and under-confidence.
In most classification tasks there are observations that are ambiguous and therefore difficult to correctly label. Set-valued classifiers output sets of plausible labels rather than a single label, thereby giving a more appropriate and informative treatment to the labeling of ambiguous instances. We introduce a framewo…
VR game data for P300 BCI with raccoon vs demon stimuli.
problem Developing confidence metrics for P300 BCI.
method Multiclass labeled P300 dataset in VR game context.
result Estimation of model's confidence in stimulus predictions.
Method extracts features from signals for classification with explainability.
problem Lack of interpretability in signal classification models.
method Combining scattering transform and multiclass logistic regression with zeroth-order optimization.
result Uncovered the meaning of scattering transform coefficients.
A Multiclass ROC Curvestat.ME
Novel method for multiclass ROC curves using multidimensional Gini index.
problem Multiclass performance evaluation, especially for imbalanced datasets.
method Extends ROC curve methodology to multiclass settings using multidimensional Gini index.
result Validated through case studies in health care and finance.
Universal consistency and rates of convergence of multiclass prototype algorithms in metric spacescs.LG
Prototype rules simplify multiclass classification in metric spaces, achieving consistency and reduced complexity.
problem Multiclass classification in metric spaces, focusing on universal consistency and convergence rates.
method Novel Proto-NN and hybrid rules for multiclass classification in metric spaces, analyzing convergence rates.
result Proto-NN is universally consistent and simpler to implement, with similar computational advantages.
New research determines the optimal sample complexity for multiclass and list learning.
problem Determining the optimal sample complexity for multiclass classification.
method Algebraic characterization of multiclass hypothesis classes in terms of their DS dimension.
result Proves a longstanding conjecture and determines the optimal dependence of sample complexity on DS dimension.
Nested dichotomies are used as a method of transforming a multiclass classification problem into a series of binary problems. A tree structure is induced that recursively splits the set of classes into subsets, and a binary classification model learns to discriminate between the two subsets of classes at each node. In …
Novel analysis improves weighted majority vote in multiclass classification.
problem Improving the performance of weighted majority vote in multiclass classification.
method Analyzes expected risk of weighted majority vote, considering prediction correlations and provides a bound for efficient minimization.
result Minimization of the new bound typically does not degrade the test error of the ensemble.
Unified binary and multiclass margin-based classification methods.
problem No consensus on multiclass loss functions analogous to binary margin loss.
method Showed multiclass loss functions can be expressed in relative margin form.
result Extended classification-calibration result to multiclass.
Survey on assessing and improving classifier calibration for better decision making.
problem Ensuring classifiers correctly quantify prediction uncertainty.
method Overview of principles, methods, and evaluation metrics for calibration.
result New methods and extensions from binary to multiclass settings.
FJS method improves multinomial classification accuracy.
problem Improving multinomial classification accuracy under dataset shift.
method Derive FJS representation and propose alternative methods.
result Factorizable joint shift is not fully identifiable without additional assumptions.
FOLKLORE algorithm speeds up online multiclass logistic regression.
problem Efficiently solving online multiclass logistic regression without high computational cost.
method Developed FOLKLORE algorithm with improved runtime and regret bound.
result First practical algorithm for online multiclass logistic regression.
We study the problem of offline learning in automated decision systems under the contextual bandits model. We are given logged historical data consisting of contexts, (randomized) actions, and (nonnegative) rewards. A common goal is to evaluate what would happen if different actions were taken in the same contexts, so …
Study shows exponential error reduction in multiclass classification without bias-variance trade-off.
problem Multiclass classification with margin conditions.
method Analysis of classification error under hard-margin conditions.
result Exponential decrease in classification error without bias-variance trade-off.