This paper proposes a multi-scale Markov-Switching GARCH model for EUR/USD volatility.
problem Non-stationary financial volatility requires models that capture changing market conditions across multiple timescales.
method Triple-timeframe Markov-Switching GARCH (MS-GARCH) framework with AR(1)-MS-GARCH models and TVTP for short horizons.
result The proposed model produces statistically distinct regimes and superior volatility forecasting performance.
This paper analyzes portfolio optimization with multi-scale volatility.
problem Optimizing portfolio under multi-scale volatility in a stochastic environment.
method Zeroth-order strategy followed by first-order approximation via PDE analysis.
result Asymptotic optimality of the proposed strategy in specific families of controls.
Neural HMM with AGA captures multi-scale dynamics in financial markets.
problem Capturing multi-scale temporal dynamics in financial markets.
method Parallel multi-resolution encoders, adaptive gating, and multi-head attention.
result Outperforms fixed-resolution baselines in predicting price movements and liquidity shocks.
We consider a stochastic volatility model which captures relevant stylized facts of financial series, including the multi-scaling of moments. The volatility evolves according to a generalized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes with super-linear mean reversion. Using large deviations techniques, we determine the asymptotic sh…
Paper tackles leverage effect estimation from noisy data.
problem Estimating leverage effect from high-frequency data with microstructure noise.
method Holistic multi-scale framework operating directly on leverage effect, using Subsampling-and-Averaging Leverage Effect (SALE) and Multi-Scale Leverage Effect (MSLE) estimators.
result Holistic multi-scale framework achieves substantial efficiency gains over existing benchmarks.
We propose a multi-scale stochastic volatility model in which a fast mean-reverting factor of volatility is built on top of the Heston stochastic volatility model. A singular pertubative expansion is then used to obtain an approximation for European option prices. The resulting pricing formulas are semi-analytic, in th…
WALNUTS improves sampling efficiency and robustness for multi-scale distributions.
problem Adapting leapfrog step size for multi-scale posterior distributions.
method Adapts leapfrog step size at fixed intervals of simulated time, selecting the largest step size to keep energy error below a threshold.
result Substantial improvements in sampling efficiency and robustness compared to standard NUTS.
Optimizes trading strategies with price impact, predictable returns, and stochastic volatility.
problem Dynamic portfolio optimization under complex market conditions.
method Multi-scale volatility expansion, singular and regular perturbations, asymptotic approximations.
result Improved portfolio strategy with reduced profit and loss (PnL) through corrections for small price impact.
For a given time horizon DT, this article explores the relationship between the realized volatility (the volatility that will occur between t and t+DT), the implied volatility (corresponding to at-the-money option with expiry at t+DT), and several forecasts for the volatility build from multi-scales linear ARCH process…
A new method predicts future paths using a Monte-Carlo approach.
problem Predicting future financial paths given historical data.
method Path Shadowing Monte-Carlo method using maximum entropy model.
result Yields state-of-the-art predictions for future volatility and option smiles.
A new wavelet method for analyzing lead-lag effects between financial assets.
problem Analyzing lead-lag relationships between financial assets.
method Wavelet-based framework bridging continuous-time and discrete-time models.
result Developed an asymptotic theory for multi-scale analysis of lead-lag effects.
We attempt to unveil the fine structure of volatility feedback effects in the context of general quadratic autoregressive (QARCH) models, which assume that today's volatility can be expressed as a general quadratic form of the past daily returns. The standard ARCH or GARCH framework is recovered when the quadratic kern…
Novel neural network solves PDEs with multi-scale resolution.
problem Solving time-dependent PDEs with varying spatial and temporal scales.
method Multi-scale message passing neural network with temporal and spatial gating modules.
result Outperforms baselines on PDEs with diverse scales.
In this paper, we generalize the Almgren-Chriss's market impact model to a more realistic and flexible framework and employ it to derive and analyze some aspects of optimal liquidation problem in a security market. We illustrate how a trader's liquidation strategy alters when multiple venues and extra information are b…
New method compresses images quickly and accurately.
problem Efficiently compressing natural images without significant loss of quality.
method Multi-scale lossy autoencoder and parallel lossless coder.
result Comparable performance to state-of-the-art models on test datasets.
We empirically analyze the most volatile component of the electricity price time series from two North-American wholesale electricity markets. We show that these time series exhibit fluctuations which are not described by a Brownian Motion, as they show multi-scaling, high Hurst exponents and sharp price movements. We …
We study the daily trading volume volatility of 17,197 stocks in the U.S. stock markets during the period 1989--2008 and analyze the time return intervals τ between volume volatilities above a given threshold q. For different thresholds q, the probability density function P_q(τ) scales with mean interval <τ> as P_q(τ…
Paper introduces multi-scale methods to improve CATE estimation from EO data.
problem Challenges in balancing fine-grained and contextual information in EO-based causal inference.
method Multi-Scale Representation Concatenation, combining Vision Transformer and Causal Forests.
result Multi-scale approach captures effect heterogeneity better than single-scale models.
Modeling price formation with interacting Hawkes processes leading to stochastic volatility with leverage.
problem Capturing the complex dynamics of price formation in financial markets.
method Agent-based approach to aggregate self-exciting point processes with mean-field interaction.
result Aggregated model converges to a stochastic volatility model with leverage effect and faster-than-linear mean reversion.
Proposes MscaleDNN for solving high-dimensional PDEs efficiently.
problem Solving high-dimensional PDEs efficiently.
method Radial scaling in frequency domain and compact support activation functions.
result Increased power in multi-scale resolution and high frequency capturing.
Boosting theory explains why multi-scale GNNs work.
problem Over-smoothing in graph neural networks.
method Gradient boosting and transductive learning analysis.
result Test error bound decreases with more node aggregations.
TMSCD detects multi-scale communities in temporal networks automatically.
problem Discovering multi-scale communities in large, evolving networks.
method Spectral multilayer formulation of MM method with automatic parameter selection.
result Automatic detection of multi-scale communities without manual parameter selection.
MRC-LSTM predicts Bitcoin prices using CNN and LSTM.
problem Predicting Bitcoin price with high volatility and complex factors.
method Combines MRC and LSTM, focusing on multi-scale features and long-term dependencies.
result MRC-LSTM significantly outperforms other models in Bitcoin price prediction.
A new model decomposes equity returns and volatilities into memory components.
problem Understanding long-term equity dynamics and volatility patterns.
method Proposes a multivariate generalization of the variance ratio to decompose long-horizon equity dynamics.
result Identifies a five-factor model capturing persistent, antipersistent, and multi-scale memory in returns and volatility.
CAST improves spectral clustering for multi-scale data by integrating reachability similarity.
problem Applying spectral clustering to multi-scale data where clusters vary in size and density.
method CAST integrates reachability similarity with distance-based similarity to derive a coefficient matrix, then applies trace Lasso regularization.
result CAST provides excellent performance and robustness across various multi-scale data test cases.
Proposes a new multi-scale architecture for generative flows to improve log-likelihood and sampling quality.
problem Challenges of high-dimensional latent space in flow models.
method Data-dependent dimension factorization based on likelihood contribution heuristic.
result Improvements in log-likelihood score and sampling quality on image benchmarks.
EXFormer predicts foreign exchange returns with high accuracy using a multi-scale self-attention mechanism and dynamic variable selection.
problem Accurately forecasting daily exchange rate returns in international finance.
method EXFormer uses a multi-scale trend-aware self-attention mechanism with dynamic variable selection and embedded squeeze-and-excitation blocks.
result EXFormer outperforms other models in forecasting daily exchange rate returns, achieving statistically significant improvements in directional accuracy.
A new multi-scale vector quantization method for unsupervised data.
problem Efficiently reconstructing unsupervised data with minimal distortion.
method Reconstruction trees, inspired by decision trees, explore data in a multi-scale fashion.
result Analysis of expected distortion under fixed unknown distribution, with asymptotic and finite sample results.
New GCNs improve graph classification with deeper multi-scale information.
problem Limited expressive power of existing GCNs.
method Generalized spectral graph convolution and deep GCN architectures, showing equivalence under certain conditions.
result Two new architectures achieve better performance on node classification tasks.
Embed nodes with multi-scale attributes for robust network analysis.
problem Capturing complex node attributes across different scales.
method Multi-scale attributed node embedding (AE & MUSAE) using Skip-gram approach.
result Proves node-feature mutual information is implicitly factorized by embeddings.
Framework for multi-scale clustering using phase transitions.
problem Clustering datasets with multi-scale structures.
method Cascade of phase transitions in simulated annealing of Expectation-Maximisation algorithm with weighted local covariance.
result Approximation of the number and size of clusters at different scales.
Deep learning predicts employment changes and industry health.
problem Forecasting short-term employment changes and assessing long-term industry health.
method LSTNet, a multi-scale deep learning model, processes multivariate time series data.
result LSTNet outperforms baseline models in most sectors, especially stable ones.
EvoMSN tackles time series forecasting under distribution shifts by evolving multi-scale normalization.
problem Accurate long-term time series forecasting under complex distribution shifts.
method EvoMSN framework with multi-scale statistics prediction and adaptive ensembling for collaborative updating.
result Improves forecasting performance of five mainstream methods on benchmark datasets.
AAANE embeds networks by learning attention weights for multi-scale structure.
problem Existing methods ignore the role of different scales in network embedding.
method AAANE uses an attention-based adversarial autoencoder to learn robust representations.
result AAANE outperforms existing methods on real-world networks.
New PINN architectures learn high-frequency features using Fourier features.
problem PINNs struggle with high-frequency or multi-scale features.
method Employ spatio-temporal and multi-scale random Fourier features.
result Effective PINN models for multi-scale PDEs.
Modeling the evolution of a financial index as a stochastic process is a problem awaiting a full, satisfactory solution since it was first formulated by Bachelier in 1900. Here it is shown that the scaling with time of the return probability density function sampled from the historical series suggests a successful mode…
Compactifies moduli spaces of abelian differentials with specific zeroes and poles.
problem Constructing a compactification of moduli spaces of abelian differentials.
method Using a blowup of the incidence variety compactification, defining families of projectivized multi-scale differentials, and performing a real oriented blowup.
result The moduli space of multi-scale differentials is a complex orbifold with normal crossing boundary.
Improved online auction pricing with multi-scale learning.
problem Maximizing revenue in online auctions with new buyers each period.
method Generalized learning from experts and multi-armed bandit problems to multi-scale versions.
result Regret bounds that scale with the best fixed price and are almost scale-free.
Proposes OC4Seq for detecting anomalies in discrete event sequences.
problem Challenges in detecting anomalies in discrete event sequences, including data imbalance, discrete events, and sequential nature.
method Integrates anomaly detection with recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to embed sequences into latent spaces and designs a multi-scale RNN framework to capture multi-scale sequential patterns.
result OC4Seq consistently outperforms various baselines on three benchmark datasets.
MSNet uses high frequency residual learning for efficient multi-scale image classification.
problem Efficient multi-scale image classification for mobile and embedded devices.
method Two network architecture: low resolution for low frequency, high resolution for high frequency residuals.
result MSNet achieves significant accuracy improvements over different base networks.
New method improves robustness of large models without sacrificing accuracy.
problem Improving robustness of large pre-trained models without accuracy loss.
method Multi-scale diffusion denoised smoothing, selectively applying smoothing at multiple noise scales.
result Strong certified robustness at high noise levels with accuracy close to non-smoothed classifiers.
DRFormer uses dynamic tokenization and multi-scale transformer to forecast long time series.
problem Forecasting long-term time series data across diverse scales.
method Dynamic tokenizer, multi-scale transformer, dynamic sparse learning, rotary position encoding.
result DRFormer outperforms existing methods in forecasting accuracy.
We construct a new map from a convex function to a distribution on its domain, with the property that this distribution is a multi-scale exploration of the function. We use this map to solve a decade-old open problem in adversarial bandit convex optimization by showing that the minimax regret for this problem is $\tild…
CrossAD detects anomalies in time series data by considering cross-scale associations and cross-window modeling.
problem Anomaly detection in time series data is challenging due to varying patterns at different scales and fixed window sizes.
method CrossAD incorporates cross-scale reconstruction and a query library to capture dynamic cross-scale associations and comprehensive context.
result CrossAD achieves state-of-the-art performance in anomaly detection across multiple real-world datasets.
Mod-DeepESN improves echo state networks for complex, multi-scale tasks.
problem Efficiency in solving complex, multi-scale temporal tasks.
method Incorporates intrinsic plasticity into a modular deep echo state network architecture.
result Significantly outperforms state-of-the-art for time series prediction tasks.
Bitcoin price shows both chaos and order, with multi-scale correlation structure.
problem Tackles the efficiency of the Bitcoin market.
method Uses novel tools for multi-fractal properties estimation.
result Bitcoin price exhibits multi-scale correlation structure with power-law behavior.
Novel framework for systemic risk analysis in financial markets.
problem Systemic risk in financial markets.
method Multi-scale network dynamics, transfer entropy networks, agent-based modeling, wavelet decomposition, Model Context Protocol (MCP).
result Multi-scale approach reveals hidden systemic risk patterns.
Space2Vec learns multi-scale spatial representations from grid cell insights.
problem Encoding spatial features with varying scales from GIS data.
method Proposes Space2Vec, a multi-scale representation learning model using grid cell insights.
result Space2Vec outperforms baselines in predicting POI types and image classification with geo-locations.