Develops scenario theory for multi-criteria decision making.
problem Need for robustness assessment with multiple criteria and datasets.
method Collectively treats risks associated with individual criteria for multi-criteria decision problems.
result More accurate robustness certificates and sharper quantification of simultaneous criterion satisfaction.
Framework selects real estate redevelopment uses by integrating value, risk, complexity, and irreversibility.
problem Persistent underperformance of real estate assets due to structural misalignment.
method Integrates real-options logic and multi-criteria decision analysis.
result Reduces over-complexification and misalignment in strategic use selection.
Multi-criteria recommender systems have been increasingly valuable for helping consumers identify the most relevant items based on different dimensions of user experiences. However, previously proposed multi-criteria models did not take into account latent embeddings generated from user reviews, which capture latent se…
This work forecasts electricity prices using Bayesian regime detection and conditional neural processes.
problem Forecasting electricity prices with optimal operational outcomes.
method Bayesian regime detection with conditional neural processes, integrating multi-criteria decision support.
result R-NP model outperformed other models in comprehensive operational utility assessments.
Study enhances financial forecasting with machine learning and fuzzy MCDM.
problem Increasing financial uncertainty and market complexity.
method Integrates machine learning (XGBoost, LSTM, GNN) and intuitionistic fuzzy MCDM.
result High forecasting accuracy with low MAPE and narrow confidence intervals.
A new method for multi-criteria recommender systems using graph attention networks.
problem Lack of nuanced relationships between users and items based on specific criteria.
method MDGAT, a multi-edge bipartite graph with dual attention networks and contrastive learning.
result MDGAT achieves higher accuracy in predicting item ratings compared to baseline methods.
A game-theoretic approach to multi-criteria ranking from ordinal data.
problem Ranking objects from ordinal data with multiple criteria.
method Generalizing von Neumann winner to multi-criteria setting using Blackwell's approachability.
result The Blackwell winner can be computed as a convex optimization problem and achieves near-optimal sample complexity.
We solve the multi-criteria benchmarking problem by formalizing it as a social choice problem and identifying conditions for meaningful rankings.
problem Aggregating multiple metrics into a single ranking for models in benchmarking problems.
method Formalizing multi-criteria benchmarking as a social choice problem and identifying sufficient conditions for meaningful rankings.
result We prove that meaningful multi-criteria benchmarking becomes possible under certain preference conditions (single-peaked, group-separable, distance-restricted).
This research assesses uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis for DTs in nuclear fuel performance.
problem Understanding the reliability and performance of advanced nuclear fuels using DTs.
method Introduces ML-based uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis methods applied to BISON fuel performance code.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of DTs in multi-criteria decision-making for nuclear fuel performance.
Proposes a new framework for predicting stock market movements using sparse neural architectures.
problem Challenging problem of predicting stock market movements using technical indicators.
method Multi-criteria optimization approach to evolve sparse neural architectures.
result Evolved parsimonious networks with better generalization capabilities.
New method finds optimal hyperparameters for multiple tasks and criteria.
problem Finding optimal hyperparameters for multiple tasks and criteria.
method Multi-Task Multi Criteria (MTMC) method that provides Pareto-optimal solutions.
result The method selects optimal hyperparameters based on given criteria significance coefficients.
The diversification (generating slightly varying separating discriminators) of Support Vector Machines (SVMs) for boosting has proven to be a challenge due to the strong learning nature of SVMs. Based on the insight that perturbing the SVM kernel may help in diversifying SVMs, we propose two kernel perturbation based b…
We consider the problem of identifying patterns in a data set that exhibit anomalous behavior, often referred to as anomaly detection. In most anomaly detection algorithms, the dissimilarity between data samples is calculated by a single criterion, such as Euclidean distance. However, in many cases there may not exist …
MOSAIC selects few informative exemplars from high-dimensional data with non-linear structures.
problem Representative selection from high-dimensional data with non-linear structures.
method MOSAIC uses a multi-criteria approach with a quadratic formulation to maximize global representation power, diversity, and outlier detection.
result MOSAIC maximizes data coverage in a transformed space and achieves robustness to various outlier types.
A two-stage decision support system optimizes long-short portfolios under ESG considerations.
problem Optimizing long-short portfolios under environmental, social, and governance (ESG) considerations.
method First stage: Multi-criteria evaluation using TODIMSort and MEREC. Second stage: Non-convex portfolio optimization with Omega ratio.
result ESG-enhanced long-short portfolios outperform non-ESG and market-value-weighted benchmarks.
Random forests are among the most popular classification and regression methods used in industrial applications. To be effective, the parameters of random forests must be carefully tuned. This is usually done by choosing values that minimize the prediction error on a held out dataset. We argue that error reduction is o…
AutoML systems are currently rising in popularity, as they can build powerful models without human oversight. They often combine techniques from many different sub-fields of machine learning in order to find a model or set of models that optimize a user-supplied criterion, such as predictive performance. The ultimate g…
This review explores causal decision-making to improve decision quality.
problem Effective decision-making requires understanding causal relationships.
method Causal structure learning, causal effect learning, and causal policy learning.
result Challenges in causal decision-making are identified and recent advances are discussed.
This paper develops a framework for efficient decision-making under time pressure.
problem Efficient decision-making under time pressure and subjective tradeoffs.
method Unified framework for evidence-based decision-making under time pressure.
result Ability to model and understand decision-making behavior under time constraints.
Algorithm minimizes regret in multi-criteria bandits with constraints.
problem Optimize primary attribute while respecting secondary constraints.
method Con-LCB algorithm that guarantees logarithmic regret and feasibility identification.
result Logarithmic regret and feasibility identification with high probability.
We consider the problem of identifying patterns in a data set that exhibit anomalous behavior, often referred to as anomaly detection. Similarity-based anomaly detection algorithms detect abnormally large amounts of similarity or dissimilarity, e.g.~as measured by nearest neighbor Euclidean distances between a test sam…
Study minimax-optimal rates for offline decision-making with function approximation.
problem Statistical complexity of offline decision-making with function approximation.
method Near minimax-optimal rates for stochastic contextual bandits and Markov decision processes, using pseudo-dimension and behavior policy.
result Established performance limits and new characterization of behavior policy.
Framework for robust decision making in changing environments with privacy constraints.
problem Interactive decision making in changing environments with constraints.
method Hybrid Decision Making with Structured Observations (hybrid DMSO) framework, local differentially private decision making, query-based learning, robust and smooth decision making.
result Strong connections and bounds derived for DEC, SQ dimension, local minimax complexity, learnability, and joint differential privacy.
Benchmarking deep time series models for equity portfolios
problem Selecting the best deep time series model for equity portfolios
method Using a CRSP benchmark and multi-criteria acceptability analysis
result No architecture dominates the benchmark, with TransEnc-8 having the highest rank-1 acceptability
Paper tackles risk-sensitive decision-making under uncertainty.
problem Risk-sensitive decision-making problem under uncertainty.
method Formulated as a stochastic control problem, delineated necessary optimality conditions.
result Illustrative examples from optimal betting and inventory management support the theory.
New active learning strategy improves decision-making accuracy.
problem Maximizing decision-making accuracy in sequential data acquisition.
method Introduces a novel active learning criterion that maximizes expected information gain on the posterior decision distribution.
result Improved performance in decision-making accuracy compared to existing alternatives.
The paper tackles individualized decision-making under unmeasured confounding, providing a novel minimax solution and a paradox.
problem Unmeasured confounding in causal inference leads to biased estimates and affects individualized decision-making.
method The authors establish a formal link between individualized decision-making under partial identification and classical decision theory, providing a minimax solution and a paradox.
result A novel minimax solution for individualized decision-making/policy assignment is provided, and an interesting paradox is drawn.
The Chain-of-Decision approach improves forecasting of financial professionals' trading decisions.
problem Challenges in forecasting professionals' behaviors, especially in trading decisions.
method Integrates an opinion-generator-in-the-loop to provide subjective analysis based on news items.
result Promising improvements in the proposed tasks' performance.
The study examines robust decision-making in volatile financial markets, finding action robustness is more impactful than uncertainty tolerance.
problem Sequential decision making in high-frequency markets under evolving uncertainty.
method Analyzes two dimensions of robustness: uncertainty tolerance and action robustness, using simulations and empirical evidence.
result Action robustness has a larger impact on profitability than uncertainty tolerance, and excessive robustness can reduce profitability in illiquid markets.
A new framework designs experiments for better decision-making.
problem Suboptimal experimental designs for downstream decision-making.
method Amortized decision-aware Bayesian Experimental Design (BED) with Transformer Neural Decision Process (TNDP).
result TNDP effectively designs experiments and facilitates accurate decision-making.
Decision making based on behavioral and neural observations of living systems has been extensively studied in brain science, psychology, and other disciplines. Decision-making mechanisms have also been experimentally implemented in physical processes, such as single photons and chaotic lasers. The findings of these exp…
We model human decision-making behaviors in a risk-taking task using inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) for the purposes of understanding real human decision making under risk. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work applying IRL to reveal the implicit reward function in human risk-taking decision making…
An online decision-making algorithm using stochastic gradient descent for big data.
problem Efficiently updating decision rules in online decision making with big data.
method Stochastic gradient descent for online updates, asymptotic normality of estimators.
result Asymptotic normality of parameter and value estimators, enabling statistical inference.
New algorithms for fast online decision making using neural networks and martingale posteriors.
problem Online sequential decision making under uncertainty.
method Martingale posterior neural networks for fast online learning and decision making.
result Achieves competitive performance-speed trade-offs in non-stationary contextual bandits and Bayesian optimization.
Post-processing predictors reduces calibration errors for decision-making.
problem Predictors with low calibration error for machine learning may have high error for decision-making.
method Post-processing with ε distance to calibration adds noise to make predictions differentially private.
result Post-processing achieves O(√ε) ECE and CDL, asymptotically optimal.
Improving cancer treatment decisions requires considering causal effects, not just model accuracy.
problem Cancer outcome prediction models may cause harm when used for treatment decisions.
method Explains the importance of considering causal effects in model validation and provides guidelines.
result Building and validating models that are useful for decision making requires considering causal effects.
Proposes a new stability measure for model fitting on similar feature data sets.
problem Model fitting on data sets with similar features is challenging.
method Tuning hyperparameters in a multi-criteria fashion with predictive accuracy and feature selection stability.
result Our approach achieves similar or better predictive performance than single-criteria and stability selection approaches.
Develops methods for finding counterfactual explanations in sequential decision making.
problem Finding counterfactual explanations for sequential decision making processes.
method Formal characterization of sequential actions and states using Markov decision processes and Gumbel-Max structural causal model. Introduces a polynomial time algorithm based on dynamic programming.
result Algorithm finds optimal counterfactual explanations for sequential decision making.
Paper tests Markov assumption in sequential decision making.
problem Testing the Markov assumption in sequential decision making.
method Forward-Backward Learning procedure to test MA without assuming parametric forms.
result The proposed test plays a crucial role in identifying optimal policies in complex decision processes.
Online learning with one-sided feedback aims to maximize accuracy while ensuring fairness.
problem Maximizing accuracy in online learning with limited feedback and ensuring fairness.
method Extending the framework of Bechavod et al. (2020) to incorporate dynamic panels of auditors, reducing the problem to a contextual combinatorial semi-bandit, and leveraging Exp2 and Context-Semi-Bandit-FTPL algorithms.
result Multi-criteria no regret guarantees for accuracy and fairness are provided.
Machine learning based decision making systems are increasingly affecting humans. An individual can suffer an undesirable outcome under such decision making systems (e.g. denied credit) irrespective of whether the decision is fair or accurate. Individual recourse pertains to the problem of providing an actionable set o…
Paper offers a fast convergence theory for offline decision making.
problem Offline decision making problems, including reinforcement learning and off-policy evaluation.
method Introduces a framework (DMOF) and algorithm (EDD) with a fast convergence guarantee.
result Demonstrates a fast convergence guarantee with a lower bound complement.
New bounds show complexity of adversarial decision making.
problem Understanding sample efficiency in adversarial decision making.
method New upper and lower bounds on Decision-Estimation Coefficient.
result Decision-Estimation Coefficient is necessary and sufficient for low regret in adversarial decision making.
Bayesian decision theory outlines a rigorous framework for making optimal decisions based on maximizing expected utility over a model posterior. However, practitioners often do not have access to the full posterior and resort to approximate inference strategies. In such cases, taking the eventual decision-making task i…
Improved model-free reinforcement learning with decision-estimation coefficient.
problem Interactive decision making, including structured bandits and reinforcement learning.
method Combining Estimation-to-Decisions with optimistic estimation to achieve better regret bounds.
result Regret bounds for model-free reinforcement learning with value function approximation.
New method learns decisions from collective preferences without individual covariates.
problem Making decisions online without individual covariates.
method Collaborative filtering, matrix completion bandit, ε-greedy policy, online gradient descent, inverse propensity weighting.
result Method outperforms benchmarks and reveals new discoveries.
Proposes a framework to quantify uncertainty in multi-step decision-making by LLMs.
problem Uncertainty quantification in multi-step decision-making scenarios of LLMs.
method A principled, information-theoretic framework decomposing uncertainty into internal and extrinsic components, and proposing UProp for efficient extrinsic uncertainty estimation.
result UProp significantly outperforms existing single-turn UQ baselines in multi-step decision-making benchmarks.
A new fairness metric for decision-making algorithms, conditioning on known fair variables.
problem Fairness issues in decision-making systems.
method Conditional fairness metric, Derivable Conditional Fairness Regularizer (DCFR), adversarial representation.
result Traditional fairness notations are special cases of the new conditional fairness notation.