Three bootstrap tests compare categorical time series generating processes.
problem Testing equality of generating processes in categorical time series.
method Proposes three tests using dissimilarity measures and bootstrap methods.
result Advantages and disadvantages of each bootstrap method discussed.
Graphical lasso models ASR utterance dependencies for consistent WER estimation.
problem Modeling dependent structure among ASR utterances for accurate significance analysis.
method Graphical lasso for dependency modeling, followed by blockwise bootstrap resampling.
result Statistically consistent variance estimator of WER under mild conditions.
Paper proposes new method for time series confidence intervals using LSTM.
problem Constructing accurate confidence intervals for multivariate time series.
method Uses Long Short Term Memory Network (LSTM) and novel block bootstrap techniques.
result Demonstrates improved accuracy in constructing confidence intervals.
BAWS adapts window size for financial risk forecasting.
problem Adaptive selection of look-back window for financial risk modeling.
method Data-driven online learning method using bootstrap-based adaptive window selection (BAWS).
result BAWS improves risk forecasting, especially in data with structural changes.
A pants-block decomposition of a 3-manifold is similar to a triangulation of a 3-manifold in many aspects. In this paper we show that any two pants-block decompositions of a 3-manifold are related by a finite sequence of moves which are called P-moves. The P-moves between pants-block decompositions are similar to the P…
GANs generate samples from time series data.
problem Resampling dependent time series data.
method Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) for time series resampling.
result GANs can outperform traditional bootstrapping methods in time series resampling.
Study improves portfolio optimization for Indonesian banks using robust methods.
problem Uncertainty in historical return and risk estimates leads to suboptimal portfolios.
method Robust optimization with moving-window and bootstrapping methods.
result Moving-window method with smaller risk-aversion parameter provides better risk-return trade-off.
A common question being raised in automatic speech recognition (ASR) evaluations is how reliable is an observed word error rate (WER) improvement comparing two ASR systems, where statistical hypothesis testing and confidence interval (CI) can be utilized to tell whether this improvement is real or only due to random ch…
We propose a new clustering algorithm that is robust to the presence of outliers in the dataset. We perform Lloyd-type iterations with robust estimates of the centroids. More precisely, we build on the idea of median-of-means statistics to estimate the centroids, but allow for replacement while constructing the blocks.…
Paper presents methods to create stock price confidence intervals using LSTM models.
problem Creating accurate confidence intervals for LSTM-estimated stock prices.
method Three bootstrap methods for dependent data, optimal block length selection, and benchmark comparison.
result Illustrated through stock price data, different bootstrap strategies provide varying confidence intervals.
AR-Sieve Bootstrap improves Random Forest time series prediction accuracy.
problem Inaccurate time series prediction due to inadequate resampling methods.
method Combines Random Forest with AR-Sieve Bootstrap for better resampling.
result AR-Sieve Bootstrap leads to more accurate predictions compared to other methods.
New method for uncertainty quantification in private SGD.
problem Uncertainty quantification for differentially private SGD.
method Block bootstrap for SGD under local differential privacy.
result Valid method for uncertainty quantification in private SGD.
Cryptocurrency markets show similar returns but different volatility responses to infrastructure and regulatory shocks.
problem Understanding how cryptocurrency markets differentiate between infrastructure and regulatory shocks.
method Event-level block bootstrap inference on 31 cryptocurrency events across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and Cardano (2019-2025).
result No statistically significant difference in cumulative abnormal returns between infrastructure failures and regulatory enforcement.
We develop and implement a novel fast bootstrap for dependent data. Our scheme is based on the i.i.d. resampling of the smoothed moment indicators. We characterize the class of parametric and semi-parametric estimation problems for which the method is valid. We show the asymptotic refinements of the proposed procedure,…
Paper derives convergence rates and confidence intervals for LSA with Markovian noise.
problem Analyzing convergence rates and constructing confidence intervals for LSA with Markovian noise.
method Derives non-asymptotic Berry-Esseen bounds and multiplier block bootstrap procedure.
result Provides O(n−1/4) convergence rates and guarantees consistent inference. A novel bootstrap method improves concept drift detection in predictive models.
problem Detecting changes in predictive relationships (concept drift) in data-driven applications.
method Developed a nested bootstrap procedure to calibrate control limits using the entire initial sample.
result The method yields more accurate baseline models and faster CL setup times.
tsbootstrap handles time series uncertainty without assuming independence.
problem Time series data violate IID assumptions, leading to undercoverage in traditional methods.
method Provides various resampling and bootstrap methods, including classical and adaptive conformal calibration.
result Dependence-aware methods reduce coverage deficits, with sieve resampling performing best.
New ARIMA framework improves forecast accuracy for economic and financial time series.
problem Improving forecast accuracy for nonlinear dynamics in time series data.
method Projection-based ARIMA framework using Galerkin basis expansions.
result Galerkin-SARIMA matches or improves forecast accuracy compared to classical ARIMA/SARIMA.
A new method corrects bias in machine learning for trading by filtering out non-executable prices.
problem Contaminated data from price limits causes misleading performance metrics in trading models.
method Mask-first design with tradability filters, GPU optimization, and penalized losses.
result The system achieves Sharpe ratios of 1.63 on real data, significantly outperforming existing methods.
A new method detects change points in time series with conceptors.
problem Detecting change points in time series with nonlinear temporal dependence.
method Use of conceptor matrix to learn baseline dynamics and identify change points.
result The method provides a consistent estimate of the true change point.
New framework for dense weighted networks with community-specific patterns.
problem Dense networks with varying edge weights across communities.
method Proposes a new model with functions mapping node characteristics to edge weights, requiring few parameters.
result Developed a bootstrap methodology for generating new networks.
Proposes a method for valid inference in GPLSIMs with longitudinal data.
problem Challenges in longitudinal data inference due to within-subject correlation and unstable variance estimation.
method Profile estimating-equation approach using spline approximation and block empirical likelihood.
result Block empirical likelihood ratio statistic with Wilks-type chi-square limit for joint inference.
Clinical models can be unstable, leading to unreliable predictions.
problem Stability of clinical prediction models developed using statistical or machine learning methods.
method Simulation and case studies of statistical and machine learning approaches to show instability in model predictions.
result Model instability often leads to miscalibration of predictions in new data.
A new method for statistical inference using SGD under φ-mixing data.
problem Valid statistical inference for time series data with general correlation.
method Proposes a mini-batch SGD estimator and associated mini-batch bootstrap procedure for φ-mixing data. result The proposed method constructs valid confidence intervals for φ-mixing data. A spring-block chain placed on a running conveyor belt is considered for modeling stylized facts observed in the dynamics of stock indexes. Individual stocks are modeled by the blocks, while the stock-stock correlations are introduced via simple elastic forces acting in the springs. The dragging effect of the moving be…
Paper proposes efficient methods for clustering and signal recovery in high-dimensional data with block structures.
problem High-dimensional clustering and signal recovery under block signal structures.
method CFA-PCA and MA-PCA methods for sparse and dense block signals.
result Proposed methods achieve computational minimax optimality for clustering and signal recovery.
BYOL learns image representations without negative pairs.
problem Self-supervised image representation learning.
method Two neural networks interact and learn from each other, updating the target network with a slow-moving average of the online network.
result Achieves state-of-the-art performance on ImageNet.
BootsTAP uses real-world data to improve TAP tracking performance.
problem Lack of large-scale groundtruth training data for TAP.
method Bootstrapped training with a self-supervised student-teacher setup.
result State-of-the-art performance on TAP-Vid benchmarks.
New method identifies latent variables with sparse perturbations.
problem Identifying latent variables with minimal supervision.
method Weakly supervised representation learning with sparse perturbations.
result Identification of latent variables up to specified blocks.
In this paper, we perform a minimalistic quantization of the classical game of tic-tac-toe, by allowing superpositions of classical moves. In order for the quantum game to reduce properly to the classical game, we require legal quantum moves to be orthogonal to all previous moves. We also admit interference effects, by…
Study improves GFM accuracy with time series augmentation.
problem Limited time series data hinders GFM performance.
method Data augmentation techniques (GRATIS, MBB, DBA) and transfer learning.
result Significant improvement in GFM accuracy over baseline.
Optimizes a small set of centroid points to approximate bootstrap distribution.
problem Computational inefficiency of standard bootstrap methods in large-scale machine learning.
method Explicitly optimizes a small set of high quality centroid points to approximate the ideal bootstrap distribution.
result Accurately estimates uncertainty with a small number of bootstrap centroids, outperforming i.i.d. sampling.
The paper reviews methods for determining the number of communities in network data.
problem Determining the number of communities in network data.
method Statistical methods for hypothesis testing and clustering in network models.
result SCORE and NCV methods evaluated for clustering in Degree-Corrected Block Models, with NCV facing challenges.
Truckload brokerages, a $100 billion/year industry in the U.S., plays the critical role of matching shippers with carriers, often to move loads several days into the future. Brokerages not only have to find companies that will agree to move a load, the brokerage often has to find a price that both the shipper and carri…
New method for estimating and testing impulse responses in high-dimensional VAR systems.
problem Statistical inference for impulse responses in sparse, high-dimensional vector autoregressions.
method Local projection equations and de-sparsified estimators combined with a non-regularized contemporaneous impact matrix.
result Valid inference procedures for structural impulse responses in high-dimensional systems.
We consider the performance of the bootstrap in high-dimensions for the setting of linear regression, where p<n but p/n is not close to zero. We consider ordinary least-squares as well as robust regression methods and adopt a minimalist performance requirement: can the bootstrap give us good confidence intervals fo…
New bootstraps improve speed and accuracy for graph count functionals.
problem Efficiently counting subgraphs in large graphs.
method Developed two types of multiplier bootstraps: a fast, approximate linear one and a quadratic one for denser graphs.
result Both bootstraps provide valid inference and higher-order accuracy under different graph sparsity conditions.
We show how to speed up Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) for Bayesian inference in large data problems by data subsampling. SMC sequentially updates a cloud of particles through a sequence of distributions, beginning with a distribution that is easy to sample from such as the prior and ending with the posterior distributio…
We propose a nonparametric sequential test that aims to address two practical problems pertinent to online randomized experiments: (i) how to do a hypothesis test for complex metrics; (ii) how to prevent type 1 error inflation under continuous monitoring. The proposed test does not require knowledge of the underlying…
A new method reduces bootstrap simulation cost and improves accuracy.
problem Efficiently simulating input uncertainty with large sample sizes.
method Orthogonal Bootstrap: Decomposes into Infinitesimal Jackknife and orthogonal parts.
result Significantly reduces computational cost and maintains accuracy.
Improved sampling for network community detection.
problem Inefficient sampling from network partition posterior distributions.
method Merge-split Markov chain Monte Carlo for efficient sampling.
result Significantly improved mixing time and correct sampling.
Paper explores using bootstrap methods to improve SGD's stability and robustness.
problem Improving the stability and robustness of SGD.
method Investigates empirical bootstrap approaches for SGD from algorithmic stability and statistical robustness perspectives.
result Demonstrates construction of purely distribution-free confidence intervals using bootstrap SGD.
This work proposes a novel approach for multiple time series forecasting. At first, multi-way delay embedding transform (MDT) is employed to represent time series as low-rank block Hankel tensors (BHT). Then, the higher-order tensors are projected to compressed core tensors by applying Tucker decomposition. At the same…
Bootstrap method for Markov chains in reinforcement learning.
problem Distributional consistency in finite controlled Markov chains with unknown control policies.
method Model-based bootstrap with novel LLN and CLT for visitation counts and transition increments.
result Asymptotically valid confidence intervals for value and Q-functions in offline RL. Proposes a private empirical bootstrap for Gaussian Differential Privacy.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in massive data under Differential Privacy.
method Gaussian Differential Private Bootstrap by Subsampling.
result Consistent and efficient private inference method.
The bootstrap provides a simple and powerful means of assessing the quality of estimators. However, in settings involving large datasets---which are increasingly prevalent---the computation of bootstrap-based quantities can be prohibitively demanding computationally. While variants such as subsampling and the m out o…
Homeownership boosts wealth and welfare compared to renting, according to new research.
problem The conventional wisdom that renting is better than owning a home.
method Block-bootstrap lifecycle simulation to compare homeownership and renting strategies.
result Homeownership generates more wealth and welfare gains than renting, especially for households with high labor income.
Validates network bootstraps for uncertainty quantification in network visualisation.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in network embeddings when only a single observation is available.
method Statistical indistinguishable embeddings using k-nearest neighbour smoothing, validated by an exchangeable network test.
result Proposes a principled, distribution-free network bootstrap that passes the exchangeable network test.