arXiv research

A family of Markov blankets in a faithful Bayesian network satisfies the symmetry and consistency properties. In this paper, we draw a bijection between families of consistent Markov blankets and moral graphs. We define the new concepts of weak recursive simpliciality and perfect elimination kits. We prove that they ar…

We establish a new framework for statistical estimation of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) when data are generated from a linear, possibly non-Gaussian structural equation model. Our framework consists of two parts: (1) inferring the moralized graph from the support of the inverse covariance matrix; and (2) selecting th…

Allowing machines to choose whether to kill humans would be devastating for world peace and security. But how do we equip machines with the ability to learn ethical or even moral choices? Jentzsch et al.(2019) showed that applying machine learning to human texts can extract deontological ethical reasoning about "right"…

This paper tackles causal representation learning from multiple distributions without hard interventions.

Study optimal reinsurance contracts to prevent moral hazard under non-concave premium principles.

The paper solves an insurance problem using mean-variance and rank-dependent utility theory.

We map the recently proposed notions of algorithmic fairness to economic models of Equality of opportunity (EOP)---an extensively studied ideal of fairness in political philosophy. We formally show that through our conceptual mapping, many existing definition of algorithmic fairness, such as predictive value parity and…

Standard economic theory makes an allowance for the agency problem, but not the compounding of moral hazard in the presence of informational opacity, particularly in what concerns high-impact events in fat tailed domains (under slow convergence for the law of large numbers). Nor did it look at exposure as a filter that…

Learning DAG or Bayesian network models is an important problem in multi-variate causal inference. However, a number of challenges arises in learning large-scale DAG models including model identifiability and computational complexity since the space of directed graphs is huge. In this paper, we address these issues in …

Study uses machine learning to estimate effective policies in settings with hidden individual actions.

In a continuous-time setting where a risk-averse agent controls the drift of an output process driven by a Brownian motion, optimal contracts are linear in the terminal output; this result is well-known in a setting with moral hazard and -under stronger assumptions - adverse selection. We show that this result continue…

Pricing options is an important problem in financial engineering. In many scenarios of practical interest, financial option prices associated to an underlying asset reduces to computing an expectation w.r.t.~a diffusion process. In general, these expectations cannot be calculated analytically, and one way to approximat…

This work presents novel algorithms for learning Bayesian network structures with bounded treewidth. Both exact and approximate methods are developed. The exact method combines mixed-integer linear programming formulations for structure learning and treewidth computation. The approximate method consists in uniformly sa…

The paper examines how risk reduction and insurance choices interact under convex premium principles.

New formulations capture aversion to ambiguity about volatility.

This paper investigates Pareto optimal (PO, for short) insurance contracts in a behavioral finance framework, in which the insured evaluates contracts by the rank-dependent utility (RDU) theory and the insurer by the expected value premium principle. The incentive compatibility constraint is taken into account, so the …

This paper argues for decolonizing AI alignment by incorporating open-source Hinduism concepts.

We consider a contracting problem in which a principal hires an agent to manage a risky project. When the agent chooses volatility components of the output process and the principal observes the output continuously, the principal can compute the quadratic variation of the output, but not the individual components. This…

We consider the problem of finding the graph on which an epidemic cascade spreads, given only the times when each node gets infected. While this is a problem of importance in several contexts -- offline and online social networks, e-commerce, epidemiology, vulnerabilities in infrastructure networks -- there has been ve…

We construct open domains in Euclidean 3-space which do not admit complete properly immersed minimal surfaces with an annular end. These domains can not be smooth by a recent result of Martin and Morales

Paper proposes synthetic data generator to study and mitigate bias in machine learning.

There is an analogy between machine learning systems and economic entities in that they are both adaptive, and their behaviour is specified in a more-or-less explicit way. It appears that the area of AI that is most analogous to the behaviour of economic entities is that of morally good decision-making, but it is an op…

This paper addresses an open problem recently posed by V. Kozlov: a rigorous proof of the non-integrability of the geodesic flow on the cubic surface $x y z=1$. We prove this is the case using the Morales-Ramis theorem and Kovacic algorithm. We also consider some consequences and extensions of this result.

Develops a Bonus-Malus model for cyber risk insurance to incentivize cybersecurity.

New method resolves inconsistency in learning directed acyclic graphs using penalized likelihood.

We show that the spectrum of a complete submanifold properly immersed into a ball of a Riemannian manifold is discrete, provided the norm of the mean curvature vector is sufficiently small. In particular, the spectrum of a complete minimal surface properly immersed into a ball of $\mathbb{R}^{3}$ is discrete. This give…

Optimal insurance contract limits insurer's risk exposure variance.

This paper gives necessary and sufficient conditions on a compact, connected, orientable 3-manifold M for it to contain a knot K such that M-K is irreducible and pi_1(M) embeds in pi_1(M-K). This result provides counterexamples to a conjecture of Lopes and Morales and characterizes those orientable 3-manifolds for whic…

This paper optimizes reinsurance contracts with belief differences between insurer and reinsurer.

Bayesian approach learns linear networks from high-dimensional data.

CIfly simplifies causal inference tasks with linear-time reachability primitives.

The behavior of geodesic curves on even seemingly simple surfaces can be surprisingly complex. In this paper we use the Hamiltonian formulation of the geodesic equations to analyze their integrability properties. In particular, we examine the behavior of geodesics on surfaces defined by the spherical harmonics. Using t…

LLM sandbox and persona dynamics create unethical reality gaps that shift risk to users.

Alexander method extended to infinite-type surfaces.

This paper discusses the financial risks faced by the UK Pension Protection Fund (PPF) and what, if anything, it can do about them. It draws lessons from the regulatory regimes under which other financial institutions, such as banks and insurance companies, operate and asks why pension funds are treated differently. It…

Alesker has introduced the space $\mathcal V^\infty(M)$ of {\it smooth valuations} on a smooth manifold $M$, and shown that it admits a natural commutative multiplication. Although Alesker's original construction is highly technical, from a moral perspective this product is simply an artifact of the operation of inters…

New polystability theory connects Calabi-Yau varieties to gravitational instantons.

Associated to Legendrian links in the standard contact three-space, Ruling polynomials are Legendrian isotopy invariants, which also compute augmentation numbers, that is, the points-counting of augmentation varieties for Legendrian links (up to a normalized factor) \cite{HR15}. In this article, we generalize this pict…

We prove, under a certain boundedness condition at infinity on the $(\bar{X}^{\top}, \bar{X}^{\bot})$-component of the second fundamental form, the vanishing of the essential spectrum of a complete minimal $\bar{X}$-bounded and $\bar{X}$-properly immersed submanifold on a Riemannian manifold endowed with a strongly con…

Machine learning is becoming an ever present part in our lives as many decisions, e.g. to lend a credit, are no longer made by humans but by machine learning algorithms. However those decisions are often unfair and discriminating individuals belonging to protected groups based on race or gender. With the recent General…

The July Revolution in Bangladesh was fueled by state violence, which paradoxically strengthened the movement.

We consider a continuous time Principal-Agent model on a finite time horizon, where we look for the existence of an optimal contract both parties agreed on. Contrary to the main stream, where the principal is modelled as risk-neutral, we assume that both the principal and the agent have exponential utility, and are ris…

Bernard et al. (2015) study an optimal insurance design problem where an individual's preference is of the rank-dependent utility (RDU) type, and show that in general an optimal contract covers both large and small losses. However, their contracts suffer from a problem of moral hazard for paying more compensation for a…

Managing unemployment is one of the key issues in social policies. Unemployment insurance schemes are designed to cushion the financial and morale blow of loss of job but also to encourage the unemployed to seek new jobs more pro-actively due to the continuous reduction of benefit payments. In the present paper, a simp…

In the present paper, we prove a stability theorem for the Kaehler Ricci flow near the infimum of the functional E_1 under the assumption that the initial metric has Ricci > -1 and |Riem| bounded. At present stage, our main theorem still need a topological assumption (1.2) which we hope to be removed in subsequent pape…

We associate several invariants to a knot in an integer homology 3-sphere using $SU(2)$ singular instanton gauge theory. There is a space of framed singular connections for such a knot, equipped with a circle action and an equivariant Chern-Simons functional, and our constructions are morally derived from the associate…

In this paper, we take up the analysis of a principal/agent model with moral hazard introduced in [17], with optimal contracting between competitive investors and an impatient bank monitoring a pool of long-term loans subject to Markovian contagion. We provide here a comprehensive mathematical formulation of the model …

We calculate the dynamics of tax evasion within a multi-agent econophysics model which is adopted from the theory of magnetism and previously has been shown to capture the main characteristics from agent-based based models which build on the standard Allingham and Sandmo approach. In particular, we implement a feedback…