A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Study optimal reinsurance contracts to prevent moral hazard under non-concave premium principles.
The paper solves an insurance problem using mean-variance and rank-dependent utility theory.
Study uses machine learning to estimate effective policies in settings with hidden individual actions.
In a continuous-time setting where a risk-averse agent controls the drift of an output process driven by a Brownian motion, optimal contracts are linear in the terminal output; this result is well-known in a setting with moral hazard and -under stronger assumptions - adverse selection. We show that this result continue…
The paper examines how risk reduction and insurance choices interact under convex premium principles.
New formulations capture aversion to ambiguity about volatility.
This paper investigates Pareto optimal (PO, for short) insurance contracts in a behavioral finance framework, in which the insured evaluates contracts by the rank-dependent utility (RDU) theory and the insurer by the expected value premium principle. The incentive compatibility constraint is taken into account, so the …
We consider a contracting problem in which a principal hires an agent to manage a risky project. When the agent chooses volatility components of the output process and the principal observes the output continuously, the principal can compute the quadratic variation of the output, but not the individual components. This…
Standard economic theory makes an allowance for the agency problem, but not the compounding of moral hazard in the presence of informational opacity, particularly in what concerns high-impact events in fat tailed domains (under slow convergence for the law of large numbers). Nor did it look at exposure as a filter that…
Develops a Bonus-Malus model for cyber risk insurance to incentivize cybersecurity.
Optimal insurance contract limits insurer's risk exposure variance.
This paper optimizes reinsurance contracts with belief differences between insurer and reinsurer.
This paper discusses the financial risks faced by the UK Pension Protection Fund (PPF) and what, if anything, it can do about them. It draws lessons from the regulatory regimes under which other financial institutions, such as banks and insurance companies, operate and asks why pension funds are treated differently. It…
We consider a continuous time Principal-Agent model on a finite time horizon, where we look for the existence of an optimal contract both parties agreed on. Contrary to the main stream, where the principal is modelled as risk-neutral, we assume that both the principal and the agent have exponential utility, and are ris…
Bernard et al. (2015) study an optimal insurance design problem where an individual's preference is of the rank-dependent utility (RDU) type, and show that in general an optimal contract covers both large and small losses. However, their contracts suffer from a problem of moral hazard for paying more compensation for a…
A family of Markov blankets in a faithful Bayesian network satisfies the symmetry and consistency properties. In this paper, we draw a bijection between families of consistent Markov blankets and moral graphs. We define the new concepts of weak recursive simpliciality and perfect elimination kits. We prove that they ar…
Allowing machines to choose whether to kill humans would be devastating for world peace and security. But how do we equip machines with the ability to learn ethical or even moral choices? Jentzsch et al.(2019) showed that applying machine learning to human texts can extract deontological ethical reasoning about "right"…
In this paper, we take up the analysis of a principal/agent model with moral hazard introduced in [17], with optimal contracting between competitive investors and an impatient bank monitoring a pool of long-term loans subject to Markovian contagion. We provide here a comprehensive mathematical formulation of the model …
We map the recently proposed notions of algorithmic fairness to economic models of Equality of opportunity (EOP)---an extensively studied ideal of fairness in political philosophy. We formally show that through our conceptual mapping, many existing definition of algorithmic fairness, such as predictive value parity and…
This study tackles basis risk in weather parametric insurance using Monte Carlo simulations.
This paper explores how decentralized finance mitigates traditional finance's shortcomings.
This work suggests modifications to a previously introduced class of heterogeneous agent models that allow for the inclusion of different types of agent motivations and behaviours in a unified way. The agents operate within a highly simplified environment where they are only able to be long or short one unit of the ass…
Inspired by recent ideas on how the analysis of complex financial risks can benefit from analogies with independent research areas, we propose an unorthodox framework for mapping microfinance credit risk---a major obstacle to the sustainability of lenders outreaching to the poor. Specifically, using the elements of net…
Develops a method to estimate average hazard under non-proportional hazards without relying on proportional hazards assumption.
Study explains mortgage burnout using Cox hazard models.
Pricing options is an important problem in financial engineering. In many scenarios of practical interest, financial option prices associated to an underlying asset reduces to computing an expectation w.r.t.~a diffusion process. In general, these expectations cannot be calculated analytically, and one way to approximat…
New method estimates hazard ratios without bias in observational studies.
Forward hedging reshapes incentive provision in firms.
The paper proposes a new method for clustering survival data using smoothed log-hazard trajectories.
We establish a new framework for statistical estimation of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) when data are generated from a linear, possibly non-Gaussian structural equation model. Our framework consists of two parts: (1) inferring the moralized graph from the support of the inverse covariance matrix; and (2) selecting th…
Novel approach to compute hazard ratios from observational studies using SCMs and backdoor adjustment.
In recent years, data has played an increasingly important role in the economy as a good in its own right. In many settings, data aggregators cannot directly verify the quality of the data they purchase, nor the effort exerted by data sources when creating the data. Recent work has explored mechanisms to ensure that th…
Unified model estimates landslide hazard combining susceptibility, intensity, and frequency.
EdgeLite detects hazardous supermarket floors, improving safety.
Recent work on follow the perturbed leader (FTPL) algorithms for the adversarial multi-armed bandit problem has highlighted the role of the hazard rate of the distribution generating the perturbations. Assuming that the hazard rate is bounded, it is possible to provide regret analyses for a variety of FTPL algorithms f…
This paper argues for decolonizing AI alignment by incorporating open-source Hinduism concepts.
Spatially-aware model improves earthquake hazard assessment accuracy.
QSurv models survival data without discretization, achieving high accuracy.
We construct open domains in Euclidean 3-space which do not admit complete properly immersed minimal surfaces with an annular end. These domains can not be smooth by a recent result of Martin and Morales
Estimating causal effects for survival outcomes in the high-dimensional setting is an extremely important topic for many biomedical applications as well as areas of social sciences. We propose a new orthogonal score method for treatment effect estimation and inference that results in asymptotically valid confidence int…
Study detects anomalies in robot vision data to predict hazards.
BoXHED boosts hazard estimation for dynamic health risk scores.
Flexible DNN for survival data, avoiding proportional hazards assumption.
Paper proposes synthetic data generator to study and mitigate bias in machine learning.
In this paper, we provide a solution to two problems which have been open in default time modeling in credit risk. We first show that if is an arbitrary random (default) time such that its Azéma's supermartingale $Z_t^τ=¶(τ>t|\F_t)$ is continuous, then avoids stopping times. We then disprove a conjecture about …
Federated Cox model handles non-proportional hazards in siloed data.
This paper proposes a decorrelation-based approach to test hypotheses and construct confidence intervals for the low dimensional component of high dimensional proportional hazards models. Motivated by the geometric projection principle, we propose new decorrelated score, Wald and partial likelihood ratio statistics. Wi…
ICODEN models survival data with interval-censored times using neural networks and ODEs.