Probit Monotone BART estimates binary outcomes using monotonic functions.
problem Estimating conditional mean functions for binary outcomes with monotonicity constraints.
method Proposes a new BART variant that incorporates monotonicity constraints for binary outcomes.
result Allows for more precise estimation of monotonic functions in binary outcome models.
Brenier isotonic regression extends multi-output isotonic regression using optimal transport.
problem Enforcing cyclic monotonicity in multi-output regression.
method Leverage Kantorovich's optimal transport to find cyclically monotone couplings.
result Brenier isotonic regression outperforms baselines in probability calibration.
New method tackles adversarial sign-corrupted isotonic regression, estimating monotonic signals under heavy dependence.
problem Estimating monotonic signals when responses are sign-corrupted and adversarially designed to violate monotonicity.
method Developed ASCIFIT, a three-step estimation procedure using PAVA with pre- and post-processing corrections.
result Theoretical guarantees of sharp high probability upper bounds and minimax lower bounds for ASCIFIT.
Investigates methods to regularize quantile regression for accurate predictions.
problem Improving accuracy and fairness in quantile regression predictions.
method Various regularization techniques including expected pinball loss, monotonicity constraints, and rate constraints.
result Deep lattice networks can maintain non-crossing quantiles and improve calibration and fairness.
Two new methods improve monotonic constraint enforcement in regression and classification trees.
problem Improving monotonic constraints in regression and classification trees.
method Proposed two new methods: one yields better results than LightGBM, the other yields even better results but is slower.
result The best method consistently beats the current implementation of LightGBM, achieving up to 1% loss reduction.
The paper analyzes high-dimensional kernel regression, showing different risk curves based on data and regularization.
problem Characterizing generalization properties of high-dimensional kernel ridge regression.
method Bias-variance decomposition of the expected excess risk, considering different regularization schemes and data eigen-profiles.
result The risk curve of kernel regression can be double-descent-like, bell-shaped, or monotonic, depending on n, d, and regularization level.
Gradient descent dynamics in quadratic regression models are analyzed, revealing five phases: monotonic, catapult, periodic, chaotic, and divergent.
problem Analyzing the dynamics of gradient descent in quadratic regression models.
method Fine-grained bifurcation analysis of gradient descent dynamics using a cubic map parameterized by the step-size.
result Gradient descent dynamics in quadratic regression models exhibit five distinct phases: monotonic, catapult, periodic, chaotic, and divergent.
Unified framework for sparse logistic regression with nonconvex regularization.
problem Sparse logistic regression with nonconvex regularization.
method Unified framework, line search criteria for nonconvex terms.
result Effective classification and feature selection at lower computational cost.
We propose learning deep models that are monotonic with respect to a user-specified set of inputs by alternating layers of linear embeddings, ensembles of lattices, and calibrators (piecewise linear functions), with appropriate constraints for monotonicity, and jointly training the resulting network. We implement the l…
The paper addresses estimating long-term treatment effects with monotone missing data.
problem Estimating long-term treatment effects with missing data, especially monotone missing.
method The paper introduces the sequential missingness assumption for identification and proposes three novel estimation methods: inverse probability weighting, sequential regression imputation, and SeqMSM. It also introduces a balancing-enhanced approach, BalanceNet, to improve estimation accuracy.
result The proposed methods, including BalanceNet, effectively estimate long-term treatment effects with monotone missing data.
Monotonic neural additive models simplify machine learning for credit scoring.
problem Complex machine learning methods make models less transparent and fair.
method Introducing monotonic neural additive models that simplify neural networks while maintaining regulatory compliance.
result Monotonic neural additive models achieve similar accuracy to complex neural networks but are more transparent and fair.
New method solves quantile crossing problem in econometrics.
problem Quantile crossing problem in quantile regression.
method Flexible check function approach.
result Eliminates or greatly reduces quantile crossing problem.
In this paper we combine two important extensions of ordinary least squares regression: regularization and optimal scaling. Optimal scaling (sometimes also called optimal scoring) has originally been developed for categorical data, and the process finds quantifications for the categories that are optimal for the regres…
A new GP method enforces physical constraints in probabilistic terms.
problem Unbounded model in GP regression leading to infeasible values.
method Introduces a new GP method using QHMC to enforce soft inequality and monotonicity constraints.
result Improves accuracy and reduces variance in GP model.
Additive isotonic regression attempts to determine the relationship between a multi-dimensional observation variable and a response, under the constraint that the estimate is the additive sum of univariate component effects that are monotonically increasing. In this article, we present a new method for such regression …
Survival regression method improves log-likelihood scores.
problem Improper scoring rules in survival regression models.
method SurvivalMonotonic-net (SuMo-net) with monotonic neural networks.
result SuMo-net achieves state-of-the-art log-likelihood scores.
Exploiting low-rank structure of the user-item rating matrix has been the crux of many recommendation engines. However, existing recommendation engines force raters with heterogeneous behavior profiles to map their intrinsic rating scales to a common rating scale (e.g. 1-5). This non-linear transformation of the rating…
New method for regression in high-dimensional space using mixture modeling and optimal transport.
problem Regression in high-dimensional space with unordered data.
method Mixture modeling and optimal transport for permutation recovery and denoising.
result Explicit upper bounds on mean squared denoising error for Gaussian noise.
This work extends VQR to non-linear cases and provides scalable solvers.
problem Limitations of VQR in handling non-linear relationships and scalability.
method Extension to non-linear VQR, vector monotone rearrangement, fast solvers.
result Substantial improvement over linear VQR and scalable solvers.
Proposes engression for extrapolation in distributional regression.
problem Challenging extrapolation problem in nonlinear regression.
method Neural network-based distributional regression.
result Engression successfully performs extrapolation under certain assumptions.
A new neural network model for ordinal regression.
problem Ordinal regression with non-proportional odds.
method Interpretable neural network for both continuous and discrete responses, training a non-linear neural network as a coefficient function.
result N3POM preserves interpretability while offering flexibility. GD monotonically decreases GFS sharpness in neural networks and scalar models.
problem Oscillatory behavior of loss in GD training.
method Analysis of GFS sharpness and empirical validation.
result GFS sharpness decreases monotonically during GD training.
Functional BART adds shape priors to Bayesian tree regression for better curve fitting.
problem Regression with function-on-scalar data and shape constraints.
method Bayesian tree structure with spline representations, customized Bayesian backfitting algorithm, shape priors.
result Improved estimation and prediction accuracy with shape priors.
We consider the problem of nonparametric regression when the covariate is d-dimensional, where d≥1. In this paper we introduce and study two nonparametric least squares estimators (LSEs) in this setting---the entirely monotonic LSE and the constrained Hardy-Krause variation LSE. We show that these two LSEs are…
QR-MIX models joint state-action values as a distribution to handle randomness in MARL.
problem Randomness in rewards and observations leads to randomness in long-term returns in MARL.
method QR-MIX uses quantile regression and combines it with QMIX and IQN to model joint state-action values as a distribution.
result QR-MIX outperforms QMIX in the StarCraft Multi-Agent Challenge (SMAC) environment.
Algorithm identifies and corrects noisy labels using Gaussian process regression.
problem Detecting and correcting real-valued noisy labels from mixed data.
method Gaussian process regression with heteroscedastic noise model and leave-one-out cross-validation.
result The method can pinpoint corrupted sample points and improve regression models.
This paper studies the addition of linear constraints to the Support Vector Regression (SVR) when the kernel is linear. Adding those constraints into the problem allows to add prior knowledge on the estimator obtained, such as finding probability vector or monotone data. We propose a generalization of the Sequential Mi…
Algorithm optimizes quantized isotonic regression with log-linear time updates.
problem Optimizing quantized isotonic regression estimations.
method Modified PAVA algorithm for sequential optimization.
result Log-linear time updates for optimal quantized mapping.
Plotting a learner's average performance against the number of training samples results in a learning curve. Studying such curves on one or more data sets is a way to get to a better understanding of the generalization properties of this learner. The behavior of learning curves is, however, not very well understood and…
Neural optimal transport improves multivariate conformal prediction.
problem Multivariate quantile regression challenges and existing methods ignore joint distribution geometry.
method Combines neural optimal transport with amortized optimization for efficient training and faster inference.
result Constructs tighter and more informative predictive regions for multivariate conformal prediction.
In the multiple linear regression setting, we propose a general framework, termed weighted orthogonal components regression (WOCR), which encompasses many known methods as special cases, including ridge regression and principal components regression. WOCR makes use of the monotonicity inherent in orthogonal components …
Monotone aggregation of dependent random vectors has an absolutely continuous distribution under certain conditions.
problem Monotone aggregation of dependent random vectors
method Coordinatewise monotonicity and uniform lower-increment conditions
result One-dimensional push-forwards of dependent random vectors have an absolutely continuous distribution
Introduces NQ network for non-crossing quantile learning.
problem Quantile crossing issue in distributional learning.
method Non-negative activation functions ensure monotonic distributions.
result Effective for distributional reinforcement learning and causal effect estimation.
Large stepsize GD for logistic regression converges faster than expected.
problem Optimizing logistic regression with large step sizes.
method Gradient descent with large stepsize applied to logistic regression.
result GD converges to a lower loss in fewer steps than expected.
Efficient algorithms find optimal monotone transforms for calibration under strictly convex losses.
problem Calibrating estimations to improve performance with monotone transforms.
method Proposed linear-time and space algorithm for finding optimal monotone transforms for specific loss functions. Also proposed an anytime algorithm with linear space and pseudo-linearithmic time complexity.
result Optimal monotone transforms are unique and can be found efficiently for various strictly convex loss functions.
Due to the outstanding capability of capturing underlying data distributions, deep learning techniques have been recently utilized for a series of traditional database problems. In this paper, we investigate the possibilities of utilizing deep learning for cardinality estimation of similarity selection. Answering this …
A method for inferring ground-truth signals from degraded sensor data.
problem Inferring ground-truth signals from multiple degraded sensor signals.
method Iterative correction of degraded signals using a Bayesian multi-sensor data fusion method.
result The method effectively infers ground-truth signals from noisy and degraded sensor data.
Study optimal ridge regularization for out-of-distribution prediction.
problem Optimal ridge regularization for predicting out-of-distribution data.
method Established conditions for optimal regularization under covariate and regression shifts, proving monotonic risk in data aspect ratio.
result Negative regularization can be optimal under shifts, even with isotropic or underparameterized training features.
Recent empirical and theoretical studies have shown that many learning algorithms -- from linear regression to neural networks -- can have test performance that is non-monotonic in quantities such the sample size and model size. This striking phenomenon, often referred to as "double descent", has raised questions of if…
We propose non-stationary spectral kernels for Gaussian process regression. We propose to model the spectral density of a non-stationary kernel function as a mixture of input-dependent Gaussian process frequency density surfaces. We solve the generalised Fourier transform with such a model, and present a family of non-…
This work explains how large neural networks generalize well despite overparameterization.
problem Understanding the generalization behavior of large neural networks.
method Theoretical analysis of approximation and generalization errors in regression and classification tasks.
result Deep overparameterized neural networks are statistically consistent across different tasks when regularization is applied.
Improves quantile regression models by aggregating multiple models.
problem Quantifying uncertainty and modeling diverse populations in predictions.
method Flexible model aggregation using weighted ensembles and modern deep learning.
result Improves accuracy and robustness of quantile predictions.
Five simple soft sensor methodologies with two update conditions were compared on two experimentally-obtained datasets and one simulated dataset. The soft sensors investigated were moving window partial least squares regression (and a recursive variant), moving window random forest regression, the mean moving window of…
GD at EoS edge minimizes logistic loss without monotonic convergence.
problem Understanding GD's implicit bias at the edge of stability.
method Theoretical analysis of logistic regression with constant stepsize GD.
result GD with any constant stepsize minimizes logistic loss over long time scales.
This paper uses neural networks to accurately model competing risks in survival analysis.
problem Ignoring competing risks leads to biased survival estimation in machine learning models.
method The paper introduces constrained monotonic neural networks to model each competing survival distribution.
result The method ensures exact likelihood maximization with reduced computational cost.
New equivalences found between subsampling and ridge regularization methods.
problem Establishing precise structural and risk equivalences between subsampling and ridge regularization.
method Proved structural and risk equivalences between subsample ridge estimators and different ridge regularization levels and subsample aspect ratios.
result Optimally tuned ridge regression exhibits a monotonic prediction risk in the data aspect ratio.
The paper develops an algorithm to select a subset of training data for efficient regression models.
problem Designing an efficient algorithm for selecting a subset of training data to train regression models quickly without sacrificing accuracy.
method The paper tackles this problem by formulating it as a minimization of training loss with respect to both trainable parameters and subset of training data, subject to error bounds on the validation set. They use a novel problem formulation and represent it with simplified constraints using the dual of the original training problem. They then develop SELCON, an efficient majorization-minimization algorithm for data subset selection, which admits an approximation guarantee.
result The experiments show that SELCON trades off accuracy and efficiency more effectively than the current state-of-the-art.
Develops methods to select informative conformal prediction sets with FCR control.
problem Selecting informative prediction sets with FCR control in supervised learning.
method Unified framework for informative conformal prediction sets with FCR control.
result First procedures providing FCR control for informative prediction sets.