A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Framework detects suspicious money laundering flows in large transaction graphs.
Study examines money flow network among firms' accounts in a Japanese region.
Method extracts taint flows to classify Bitcoin mining pools.
Money flow models are essential tools to understand different economical phenomena, like saving propensities and wealth distributions. In spite of their importance, most of them are based on synthetic transaction networks with simple topologies, e.g. random or scale-free ones, as the characterisation of real networks i…
Model predicts three market regimes: Good, Bad, and Ugly.
The gauge theory of arbitrage was introduced by Ilinski in [arXiv:hep-th/9710148] and applied to fast money flows in [arXiv:cond-mat/9902044]. The theory of fast money flow dynamics attempts to model the evolution of currency exchange rates and stock prices on short, e.g.\ intra-day, time scales. It has been used to ex…
Recently, in order to explore the mechanism behind wealth or income distribution, several models have been proposed by applying principles of statistical mechanics. These models share some characteristics, such as consisting of a group of individual agents, a pile of money and a specific trading rule. Whatever the trad…
Money analyzed as a multidimensional tensor for better economic policy.
Associating stock mechanics to real economy, in terms of volume, number of transactions, and cost, i.e. money flow for shares, we obtained the fundamental laws of stock mechanics.
To investigate the actual phenomena of transport on a complex network, we analysed empirical data for an inter-firm trading network, which consists of about one million Japanese firms and the sales of these firms (a sale corresponds to the total in-flow into a node). First, we analysed the relationships between sales a…
This paper uses deep learning to detect money laundering in cross-border transactions.
Based on the approach of flow distances, the international trade flow system is studied from the perspective of multi-layer flow network. A model of multi-layer flow network is proposed for modelling and analyzing multiple types of flows in flow systems. Then, flow distances are introduced, and symmetric minimum flow d…
There is, among the economist ecosystem, the idea of virtuous public spending as a form of promotion of economic growth. If we think on the way GDP is measured, it is not possible to get that conclusion because it becomes circular: measuring the money flow obviously will detect directly the public spending but always m…
We study the structure of inter-industry relationships using networks of money flows between industries in 20 national economies. We find these networks vary around a typical structure characterized by a Weibull link weight distribution, exponential industry size distribution, and a common community structure. The comm…
We show that a steady-state stock-flow consistent macro-economic model can be represented as a Constraint Satisfaction Problem (CSP).The set of solutions is a polytope, which volume depends on the constraintsapplied and reveals the potential fragility of the economic circuit,with no need to study the dynamics. Several …
Money is a technology for promoting economic prosperity. Over history money has become increasingly abstract, it used to be hardware, gold coins and the like, now it is mostly software, data structures located in banks. Here I propose the logical conclusion of the abstraction of money: to use as money the most general …
This review is about the convenience, the benefits, as well as the destructive capacities of money. It deals with various aspects of money creation, with its value, and its appropriation. All sorts of money tend to get corrupted by eventually creating too much of them. In the long run, this renders money worthless and …
Model studies money exchange stability in social networks.
A simple example shows that losing all money is compatible with a very high Sharpe ratio (as computed after losing all money). However, the only way that the Sharpe ratio can be high while losing money is that there is a period in which all or almost all money is lost. This note explores the best achievable Sharpe and …
LineMVGNN improves AML detection by integrating multi-view graph learning.
Money was invented to address the difficulty in the double coincidence of wants between the supply and demand when people exchanged their goods and services. There are two information states in society: one is the initial state that people have goods and services due to division of labor; the other is the final state t…
We have studied the statistical mechanics of money circulation in a closed economic system. An explicit statistical formulation of the circulation velocity of money is presented for the first time by introducing the concept of holding time of money. The result indicates that the velocity is governed by behavior pattern…
We consider a simple model of a closed economic system where the total money is conserved and the number of economic agents is fixed. In analogy to statistical systems in equilibrium, money and the average money per economic agent are equivalent to energy and temperature, respectively. We investigate the effect of the …
The distribution of money is analysed in connection with the Boltzmann distribution of energy in the degenerate states of molecules. Plots of the population density of income distribution for various countries are well reproduced by a Gamma function, confirming the validity of the statistical distribution at equilibriu…
In this paper the dependence of wealth distribution and the velocity of money on the required reserve ratio is examined based on a random transfer model of money and computer simulations. A fractional reserve banking system is introduced to the model where money creation can be achieved by bank loans and the monetary a…
In this model study of the commodity market, we present some evidence of competition of commodities for the status of money in the regime of parameters, where emergence of money is possible. The competition reveals itself as a rivalry of a few (typically two) dominant commodities, which take the status of money in turn…
This paper investigates and compares currency substitution between the currencies of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries and the euro. In addition, we develop a model with microeconomic foundations, which identifies difference between currency substitution and money demand sensitivity to exchange rate variatio…
The paper reveals the hidden costs of digitizing commodity money and proposes a new stable-coin system.
This Chapter reviews statistical models for the probability distribution of money developed in the econophysics literature since the late 1990s. In these models, economic transactions are modeled as random transfers of money between the agents in payment for goods and services. Starting from the initially equal distrib…
We present a dynamical many-body theory of money in which the value of money is a time dependent ``strategic variable'' that is chosen by the individual agents. The value of money in equilibrium is not fixed by the equations, and thus represents a continuous symmetry. The dynamics breaks this continuous symmetry by fix…
Log-ergodic model improves velocity of money prediction.
Derives token price process for AMM tokens, finds leverage effect and pricing discrepancies.
We briefly review statistical models for the probability distribution of money developed in the econophysics literature since the late 1990s. In these models, economic transactions are modeled as random transfers of money between the agents in payment for goods and services. We focus on conceptual foundations for this …
New GNN method detects money laundering in diverse customer relationships.
In our simplified description `wealth' is money (). A kinetic theory of gas like model of money is investigated where two agents interact (trade) selectively and exchange some amount of money between them so that sum of their money is unchanged and thus total money of all the agents remains conserved. The probabilit…
The paper analyzes risk assessment for cash flows in continuous time using the notion of convex risk measures for processes. By combining a decomposition result for optional measures, and a dual representation of a convex risk measure for bounded \cd processes, we show that this framework provides a systematic approach…
An agent-based computational economical toy model for the emergence of money from the initial barter trading, inspired by Menger's postulate that money can spontaneously emerge in a commodity exchange economy, is extensively studied. The model considered, while manageable, is significantly complex, however. It is alrea…
We have studied here the self-organising features of the dynamics of a model market, where the agents `trade' for a single commodity with their money. The model market consists of fixed numbers of economic agents, money supply and commodity. We demonstrate that the model, apart from showing a self-organising behaviour,…
The determinants of the velocity of money have been examined based on life-cycle hypothesis. The velocity of money can be expressed by reciprocal of the average value of holding time which is defined as interval between participating exchanges for one unit of money. This expression indicates that the velocity is govern…
This is an invited article for the Discussion and Debate special issue of The European Physical Journal Special Topics on the subject "Can Economics Be a Physical Science?" The first part of the paper traces the personal path of the author from theoretical physics to economics. It briefly summarizes applications of sta…
We consider the at-the-money strike derivative of implied volatility as the maturity tends to zero. Our main results quantify the behavior of the slope for infinite activity exponential Lévy models including a Brownian component. As auxiliary results, we obtain asymptotic expansions of short maturity at-the-money digit…
The nature of monetary arrangements is often discussed without any reference to its detailed construction. We present a graph representation that allows for a clear understanding of modern monetary systems. First, we show that systems based on commodity money are incompatible with credit. We then study the current char…
Venice used 'helicopter money' to subsidize during famine and plague, but it caused instability.
This paper reviews statistical and machine learning methods for anti-money laundering.
Digital money could reduce germ spread during coronavirus.
In a closed economic system, money is conserved. Thus, by analogy with energy, the equilibrium probability distribution of money must follow the exponential Gibbs law characterized by an effective temperature equal to the average amount of money per economic agent. We demonstrate how the Gibbs distribution emerges in c…
The stability of money value is an important requisite for a functioning economy, yet it critically depends on the actions of participants in the market themselves. Here we model the value of money as a dynamical variable that results from trading between agents. The basic trading scenario can be recast into an Ising t…
We introduce preferential behavior into the study on statistical mechanics of money circulation. The computer simulation results show that the preferential behavior can lead to power laws on distributions over both holding time and amount of money held by agents. However, some constraints are needed in generation mecha…