Stablecoins are reshaping global monetary systems, offering hybrid structures with public and private monies.
problem The evolution of stablecoins from crypto innovation to a global monetary component.
method Econometric analysis and hybrid system design modeling.
result Stablecoins maintain strong peg stability, and a hybrid system design ensures financial resilience.
Our study proposes a new currency system to protect wealth from over-issued fiat and stablecoins.
problem The over-issuance of fiat and stablecoins undermines the stability of currency purchasing power.
method We introduce a parallel monetary system based on redeemable self-decaying money (RSDM) to provide a stable currency alternative.
result A parallel monetary system including RSDM, domestic fiat, and major reserve currencies can safeguard wealth and prevent the reverse Gresham law.
With negative growth in real production in many countries and debt levels which become an increasing burden on developed societies, the calls for a change in economic policy and even the monetary system become louder and increasingly impatient. We research the consequences of a system of credit and debt, that still all…
Modeling banking system dynamics to govern systemic risk.
problem Managing systemic risk in a banking system model.
method Optimal control problem for mean field approximation, parameter α and γ determination. result Governing the probability of systemic risk between two thresholds.
Graphs explain modern money systems, showing how banks create money and central banks control net money.
problem Understanding the nature and construction of modern monetary systems.
method Graphical representation of balance sheets to illustrate monetary arrangements.
result Commercial banks create endogenous money, while central banks and Treasuries control net money.
Develops modern monetary circuit theory and optimizes bank balance sheets.
problem Stability and optimization of interconnected banking networks.
method Stochastic modeling, Extended Structural Default Model, multi-period optimization.
result Shows interconnectedness of banks and stability of banking networks.
In this paper the dependence of wealth distribution and the velocity of money on the required reserve ratio is examined based on a random transfer model of money and computer simulations. A fractional reserve banking system is introduced to the model where money creation can be achieved by bank loans and the monetary a…
Paper explores econophysics applications to monetary economics.
problem Unequal distribution of money due to entropy increase.
method Statistical physics applied to economic agents.
result Highly unequal money distribution due to entropy.
Model shows how adding liquidity in banking system can lead to defaults.
problem Systemic risk and interbank lending in banking systems.
method Simple model using Feller diffusions and Markov Nash equilibrium.
result Adding liquidity leads to defaults in banking system.
We build a statistical ensemble representation of two economic models describing respectively, in simplified terms, a payment system and a credit market. To this purpose we adopt the Boltzmann-Gibbs distribution where the role of the Hamiltonian is taken by the total money supply (i.e. including money created from debt…
Study develops hybrid model to mitigate stablecoin liquidity risk.
problem Increasing integration of stablecoins introduces liquidity risk during market stress.
method Hybrid monetary architecture with 100% reserve backing and liquidity facilities.
result Demonstrates significant reduction in peg deviations and stress persistence.
We propose a simple model of inter-bank borrowing and lending where the evolution of the log-monetary reserves of N banks is described by a system of diffusion processes coupled through their drifts in such a way that stability of the system depends on the rate of inter-bank borrowing and lending. Systemic risk is ch…
Geometrically convex return risk measures on AM-algebras
problem Quantifying risk in time series analysis
method Extending return risk measures to general ordered vector spaces
result Establishing results on finiteness, continuity, separability, and dual and aggregation-based representations
In 1979 following a decade of hyperinflation, Iceland introduced Verðtryggð lán, negatively amortised, index-linked loans whose outstanding principal is increased by the rate of the consumer price inflation index(CPI). The loans were part of a general government policy which used indexation to the CPI to address the ec…
The paper models and prices cyber insurance risks, distinguishing idiosyncratic, systematic, and systemic risks.
problem Modeling and pricing cyber insurance policies, especially for systemic risks.
method Distinguishes three types of cyber risks and proposes methods for their valuation.
result Complex methods are needed for systemic cyber risks, including risk-neutral valuation and monetary risk measures.
Russia introduces CryptoRuble, impacting global finance.
problem Impact of government-backed cryptocurrencies on global finance.
method Analyzing motives and implications of CryptoRuble issuance.
result Implications for various stakeholders and future monetary systems.
Paper studies central bank's strategy to control systemic risk in interbank system.
problem Minimizing average distance between log-monetary reserves and target levels.
method Weak formulation, Ekeland's variational principle, Gamma-convergence, stochastic Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov equation.
result Proves convergence of optimal strategies as number of banks increases.
Model analyzes systemic risk in banking systems using stochastic differential equations.
problem Govern systemic risk in banking systems.
method Stochastic differential equations, optimal control problem, pseudo mean field approximation.
result Monetary authority can control systemic risk by optimizing bank behavior.
Bayesian SVARs improve model construction and policy analysis in big data.
problem Manual selection of variables in SVAR models limits their applicability in big data.
method Develops a Bayesian methodology for constructing information sets and retaining the largest system.
result Output increases with housing production over household credit in SVAR models.
We analyze a monetary system of random money transfer on the basis of double entry bookkeeping. Without boundary conditions, we do not reach a price equilibrium and violate text-book formulas of economists quantity theory (MV=PQ). To match the resulting quantity of money with the model assumption of a constant price, w…
This paper reviews monetary standards using physics concepts.
problem The outdated gold-standard and its relevance to modern macroeconomics.
method A physics-based review of monetary standards.
result A new monetary standard based on energy supply capacity promotes sustainable growth.
News on inflation and monetary policy impacts US household inflation expectations.
problem Understanding how news affects inflation expectations.
method Monthly disaggregated US data from 1978 to 2016, controlling for various factors.
result News on rising inflation and easier monetary policy has a stronger impact on inflation expectations.
Study on existence and uniqueness of equilibria in incomplete markets.
problem Existence and uniqueness of continuous-time stochastic equilibria in incomplete markets.
method Analysis of a fully-coupled nonlinear system of quadratic BSDEs.
result Sufficient condition for existence and uniqueness of equilibria.
Study finds monetary policy uncertainty negatively impacts Bitcoin returns.
problem Impact of monetary policy and uncertainty on cryptocurrencies market.
method Markov Switching Means VAR (MSM-VAR) method.
result Monetary policy uncertainty leads to a decline in Bitcoin returns.
Interbank credit can create money, leading to financial instability.
problem Systemic instability caused by coordination failures in interbank credit.
method Developed a model of interbank credit coordination under minimal institutions, analyzed through simulation.
result Interbank credit can lead to unbound monetary systems and financial instability.
Extends monetary value measures to probability spaces.
problem No specific problem stated; generalization of monetary value measures.
method Extends category from hi to Prob.
result Generalized monetary value measures to probability spaces.
Monetary risk measures explained as functions of random variables.
problem Understanding monetary risk measures.
method Representation results and construction methods.
result Monetary risk measures as monotone and cash additive functions.
FedSight AI predicts federal funds rate using LLMs and multi-agent reasoning.
problem Predicting Federal Open Market Committee's decisions on federal funds rate.
method Multi-agent framework with large language models, structured and unstructured inputs, and CoD extension for efficient reasoning.
result Achieved 93.75% accuracy and 93.33% stability in predicting FOMC outcomes.
This study shows how monetary uncertainty affects stock market reactions to macroeconomic news.
problem Understanding stock market reactions to macroeconomic news under varying levels of monetary uncertainty.
method Decomposes stock market response into cash flow and risk-free rate channels, analyzing time-varying effects.
result High monetary uncertainty weakens the positive stock market response to macroeconomic news.
We describe the innovations in finances, introduced over the recent decades, and analyze most of the business and regulatory challenges, faced by the financial industry, because of the present disruptive changes in the global capital markets. We use the integrative thinking approach to formulate the new central bank st…
Algorithmic stablecoins optimize monetary policy to balance price stability.
problem Persistent inflation from centralized monetary policy.
method Propose and study a rule-based monetary policy model for algorithmic stablecoins.
result Optimal trade-off between price stability and supply stability.
The paper uses LSM to solve complex monetary utility functions.
problem Computing dynamic monetary utility functions with high dimensions.
method Least Squares Monte Carlo (LSM) algorithm.
result LSM algorithm successfully applied to recursive Cost-of-Capital valuation.
Study examines remittances in Nepal, linking external demand and domestic monetary conditions.
problem Understanding the dynamics of remittances in Nepal's economy.
method Constructed composite indices via PCA for external demand and domestic monetary conditions. Used ARDL, cointegration, DOLS, ECM, and machine learning for analysis.
result Strong positive long-run effect of external demand on remittances, significant negative impact of tighter domestic monetary conditions.
Theory integrates loss aversion into expected utility for monetary returns.
problem Modeling loss aversion in expected utility theory.
method Develops state-dependent linear utility functions incorporating loss aversion.
result Contracts from monopolists in insurance markets.
This paper connects monetary and star-shaped risk measures by showing their equivalence under certain conditions.
problem Understanding the relationship between monetary and star-shaped risk measures.
method Analyzing the acceptability of 0 and the normalization property.
result Monetary risk measures are only a translation away from star-shapedness under mild conditions.
Modeling economic network evolution using Markov chains.
problem Analyzing the evolving world economic network.
method Finite Markov chains analysis of the world input-output database.
result Paradoxical effect of economic slowdown on network flow.
Research shows SBP's tone impacts stock market returns positively or negatively.
problem Impact of State Bank of Pakistan's monetary policy communications on stock market.
method Sentiment analysis and high frequency stock market returns analysis.
result Positive or negative tone in SBP communications affects stock returns positively or negatively.
We study time-consistency questions for processes of monetary risk measures that depend on bounded discrete-time processes describing the evolution of financial values. The time horizon can be finite or infinite. We call a process of monetary risk measures time-consistent if it assigns to a process of financial values …
Growth of monetary assets and debts is commonly described by the formula of compound interest which for the case of continuous compounding is the exponential growth law. Its differential form is dc/dt = i c where dc/dt describes the rate of monetary growth, i the compounded interest rate and c the actual principal. Exp…
Study shows monetary policy impacts digital assets like BTC and ETH.
problem Impact of monetary policy on digital assets and DeFi.
method Event study regressions and high-frequency price analysis.
result Monetary policy surprises negatively affect BTC and ETH but not other digital assets.
Study identifies key inflation indicators in DRC's monetary policy.
problem Price stability and economic growth in DRC.
method Variance decomposition analysis of monetary and real sector indicators.
result Monetary origin indicators are more relevant than real sector indicators.
Analyzes securitization impacts on monetary and fiscal policies.
problem Impact of securitization on monetary and fiscal policies.
method Develops optimal conditions, identifies constraints, introduces new decision models.
result Identifies constraints and interactions of securitization with capital-reserve requirements.
Agents buy and sell services. All services are of equal quality. Buyers choose sellers at random. Monetary and fiscal policies are imposed by a central bank and a central government. Credit is supplied by a commercial banking system. Propensities to buy, sell, and lend depend on account balances, interest rates, tax ra…
The paper models US inflation and hyperinflation using monetary and GDP data.
problem Understanding and predicting inflation and hyperinflation.
method Developed economic models to predict US CPI growth based on BMS, GDP, and savings.
result An exact relationship between CPI growth and BMS growth minus GDP and savings growth was found, with a residual term.
The paper explores non-convex risk measures and their characterizations.
problem Characterizing non-convex risk measures without convexity or weak convexity.
method Characterizes monetary risk measures as lower envelopes of families of convex or coherent risk measures, considering law-invariance and SSD-consistency.
result Unified representation theorems for law-invariant risk measures, including VaR.
This paper studies the dynamics of Brazilian interest rates for short-term maturities. The paper employs developed techniques in the econophysics literature and tests for long-range dependence in the term structure of these interest rates for the last decade. Empirical results suggest that the degree of long-range depe…
Large financial dataset tracks FOMC communications and their impact.
problem Understanding how FOMC communications influence financial markets.
method Constructed a large annotated dataset of FOMC speeches, minutes, and transcripts. Developed a hawk-dove classification task. Evaluated various models on the dataset and used RoBERTa-large for monetary policy stance measurement.
result Monetary policy stance measures derived from FOMC documents predict market performance.
Study on efficiency in economies with risk-averse agents, finding Pareto optima.
problem Efficiency in economies with risk-averse agents.
method Analysis of utility functionals, existence and characterization of Pareto optima.
result Existence and comonotone characterization of Pareto optima for risk-averse agents.