A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
This paper introduces generalized betas accounting for higher order co-moment effects.
Computation of moments of transformed random variables is a problem appearing in many engineering applications. The current methods for moment transformation are mostly based on the classical quadrature rules which cannot account for the approximation errors. Our aim is to design a method for moment transformation for …
Proposes Bayesian differential privacy for machine learning.
We study the problem of subsampling in differential privacy (DP), a question that is the centerpiece behind many successful differentially private machine learning algorithms. Specifically, we provide a tight upper bound on the Rényi Differential Privacy (RDP) (Mironov, 2017) parameters for algorithms that: (1) subsamp…
The paper improves privacy accounting for discrete-valued mechanisms and the subsampled Gaussian mechanism.
The paper connects moment maps to the stability of holomorphic fibrations.
We develop a scale-invariant truncated Lévy (STL) process to describe physical systems characterized by correlated stochastic variables. The STL process exhibits Lévy stability for the probability density, and hence shows scaling properties (as observed in empirical data); it has the advantage that all moments are fini…
Market-based asset price probability depends on trade volumes and values, improving forecasts and reliability.
This thesis studies domain adaptation under minimal distribution similarity assumptions using moments.
Theoretical models applied to option pricing should take into account the empirical characteristics of the underlying financial time series. In this paper, we show how to price basket options when assets follow a shifted log-normal process with jumps capable of accommodating negative skewness. Our technique is based on…
The aim of this article is to design a moment transformation for Student- t distributed random variables, which is able to account for the error in the numerically computed mean. We employ Student-t process quadrature, an instance of Bayesian quadrature, which allows us to treat the integral itself as a random variable…
A financial model without short-selling shows deviations from normality.
The iterative nature of the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm presents a challenge for privacy-preserving estimation, as each iteration increases the amount of noise needed. We propose a practical private EM algorithm that overcomes this challenge using two innovations: (1) a novel moment perturbation formulation…
Deep neural networks predict earthquake locations with high accuracy.
We performed an empirical comparison of ICA and PCA algorithms by applying them on two simulated noisy time series with varying distribution parameters and level of noise. In general, ICA shows better results than PCA because it takes into account higher moments of data distribution. On the other hand, PCA remains quit…
The study revisits portfolio diversification by relaxing assumptions for skewed, multi-regime, and leptokurtic asset returns.
Proposes a robust IV estimator using optimal transport for corrupted or adversarial data.
The non-gaussianity of processes observed in financial markets and relatively good performance of gaussian models can be reconciled by replacing the Brownian motion with Levy processes whose Levy densities decay as exp(-lambda|x|) or faster, where lambda>0 is large. This leads to asymptotic pricing models. The leading …
In the market place, diversification reduces risk and provides protection against extreme events by ensuring that one is not overly exposed to individual occurrences. We argue that diversification is best measured by characteristics of the combined portfolio of assets and introduce a measure based on the information en…
We address the problem of estimating the parameters of a time-homogeneous Markov chain given only noisy, aggregate data. This arises when a population of individuals behave independently according to a Markov chain, but individual sample paths cannot be observed due to limitations of the observation process or the need…
This paper presents hedging strategies for European and exotic options in a Levy market. By applying Taylor's Theorem, dynamic hedging portfolios are con- structed under different market assumptions, such as the existence of power jump assets or moment swaps. In the case of European options or baskets of European optio…
This article proposes a new method for the estimation of the parameters of a simple linear regression model which accounts for the role of co-moments in non-Gaussian distributions being based on the minimization of a quartic loss function. Although the proposed method is very general, we examine its application to fina…
MuML models predict molecular dipole moments using atomic partial charges and dipoles.
This Master Thesis is devoted to the study of -plectic manifolds and the Strongly Homotopy Lie algebras, also called -algebras, that can be associated to them. Since multisymplectic geometry and -algebras are relevant in Theoretical Physics, and in particular in String Theory, we introduce th…
A novel method for Bayesian predictive distribution modeling with neural nets.
Study detects edge correlation between unlabeled random graphs.
Accounting for the non-normality of asset returns remains challenging in robust portfolio optimization. In this article, we tackle this problem by assessing the risk of the portfolio through the "amount of randomness" conveyed by its returns. We achieve this by using an objective function that relies on the exponential…
We describe a method for parameter estimation in bipartite probabilistic graphical models for joint prediction of clinical conditions from the electronic medical record. The method does not rely on the availability of gold-standard labels, but rather uses noisy labels, called anchors, for learning. We provide a likelih…
We provide an alternative method for analysis of multifractal properties of time series. The new approach takes into account the behaviour of the whole multifractal profile of the generalized Hurst exponent for all moment orders , not limited only to the edge values of describing in MFDFA scaling prope…
Improved privacy bounds enhance deep learning training efficiency.
The distribution of the return intervals between volatilities above a threshold for financial records has been approximated by a scaling behavior. To explore how accurate is the scaling and therefore understand the underlined non-linear mechanism, we investigate intraday datasets of 500 stocks which consist of …
Project estimates risk-neutral dependence from option prices.
In recent years there has been a closer interrelationship between several scientific areas trying to obtain a more realistic and rich explanation of the natural and social phenomena. Among these it should be emphasized the increasing interrelationship between physics and financial theory. In this field the analysis of …
Importance sampling has been known as a powerful tool to reduce the variance of Monte Carlo estimator for rare event simulation. Based on the criterion of minimizing the variance of Monte Carlo estimator within a parametric family, we propose a general account for finding the optimal tilting measure. To this end, when …
A new method calculates fractional moments using the moment-generating function.
Study compares weak and homotopy moment maps in multisymplectic geometry.
A symmetry-guided definition of time may enhance and simplify the analysis of historical series with recurrent patterns and seasonalities. By enforcing simple-scaling and stationarity of the distributions of returns, we identify a successful protocol of time definition in Finance. The essential structure of the stochas…
The paper applies Fisher-Rao geometry to beta distributions for moment analysis.
For a GJR-GARCH specification with a generic innovation distribution we derive analytic expressions for the first four conditional moments of the forward and aggregated returns and variances. Moment for the most commonly used GARCH models are stated as special cases. We also the limits of these moments as the time hori…
This paper identifies and bounds ICE central moments using PO marginal central moments.
We tackle causal inference under conditional moment restrictions using importance weighting.
Revisits Lee's Moment Formula, relaxing moment assumptions for implied volatility.
Sharp policy value estimation for contextual bandits with unobserved confounders.
Enhanced Adam uses higher-order moments for better performance.
Developed moment estimators for affine stochastic volatility models.
A new method for estimating causal parameters from observables reduces the need for finite moment conditions.
Stiefel-Whitney classes of moment-angle manifolds are trivial.
We analyze the practical consequences of the bilateral counterparty risk adjustment. We point out that past literature assumes that, at the moment of the first default, a risk-free closeout amount will be used. We argue that the legal (ISDA) documentation suggests in many points that a substitution closeout should be u…