arXiv research

Estimates exotic option prices without a model using market data.

In this paper we introduce a new approach to model-free path-dependent option pricing. We first introduce a general duality result for linear optimisation problems over signed measures introduced in [3] and show how the the problem of model-free option pricing can be formulated in the new framework. We then introduce a…

Deep learning for financial derivatives pricing and hedging.

We consider the class of self-similar Gaussian stochastic volatility models, and compute the small-time (near-maturity) asymptotics for the corresponding asset price density, the call and put pricing functions, and the implied volatilities. Unlike the well-known model-free behavior for extreme-strike asymptotics, small…

Improved bounds on the copula of a bivariate random vector are computed when partial information is available, such as the values of the copula on a given subset of $[0,1]^2$, or the value of a functional of the copula, monotone with respect to the concordance order. These results are then used to compute model-free bo…

New method for superhedging without assuming continuous claims.

Paper introduces a new outer measure for continuous price paths with instant enforcement.

Study compares model-free valuation to actual financial outcomes, finds it slightly conservative.

We prove that the model-free typical (in the sense of Vovk) càdlàg price paths with mildly restricted downward jumps possess quadratic variation which does not depend on the specific sequence of partitions as long as these partitions are obtained from stopping times such that the oscillations of a path on the consecuti…

For every adapted, càglàd process (strategy) $G$ and typical càdlàg price paths whose jumps satisfy some mild growth condition we define integral $G\cdot S$ as a limit of simple integrals.

The paper develops bounds for multi-asset derivatives using option prices.

Researchers find a way to price American options without relying on specific asset price models.

Geometric Mean Market Makers super-hedge impermanent loss without models.

A model-free framework extracts risk-neutral densities from short-dated options.

In a model free discrete time financial market, we prove the superhedging duality theorem, where trading is allowed with dynamic and semi-static strategies. We also show that the initial cost of the cheapest portfolio that dominates a contingent claim on every possible path $ω\in Ω$, might be strictly greater than the …

In this work we introduce the notion of fully incomplete markets. We prove that for these markets the super-replication price coincide with the model free super-replication price. Namely, the knowledge of the model does not reduce the super-replication price. We provide two families of fully incomplete models: stochast…

Study dynamic trading in options to improve price bounds for exotic derivatives.

Improved bounds for multi-asset options using deep learning and market prices.

We present two different approaches to stochastic integration in frictionless model free financial mathematics. The first one is in the spirit of Itô's integral and based on a certain topology which is induced by the outer measure corresponding to the minimal superhedging price. The second one is based on the controlle…

Paper uses RL to optimize insurance pricing on PCWs, improving efficiency and adaptability.

This paper presents a discrete-time option pricing model that is rooted in Reinforcement Learning (RL), and more specifically in the famous Q-Learning method of RL. We construct a risk-adjusted Markov Decision Process for a discrete-time version of the classical Black-Scholes-Merton (BSM) model, where the option price …

Study finds upper bounds for exotic options using call prices, converging with more data.

We consider the problem of finding a model-free upper bound on the price of an American put given the prices of a family of European puts on the same underlying asset. Specifically we assume that the American put must be exercised at either $T_1$ or $T_2$ and that we know the prices of all vanilla European puts with th…

Using Vovk's outer measure, which corresponds to a minimal superhedging price, the existence of quadratic variation is shown for "typical price paths" in the space of càdlàg functions possessing a mild restriction on the jumps directed downwards. In particular, this result includes the existence of quadratic variation …

The paper develops a new model-free formula for option initial margins.

Efficient method for lookback option pricing under Markov models.

We derive a general multivariate theory for realised characteristics of `model-free discretisation-invariant swaps', so-called because the standard no-arbitrage assumption of martingale forward prices is sufficient to derive fair-value swap rates for such characteristics which have no jump or discretisation errors. Thi…

Improved price bounds for multi-asset derivatives using market option data.

RL optimizes meta-order execution by adapting to market conditions.

Model-free approach to hedge path-dependent options using min-max optimization.

New method for CMS derivatives pricing using Watanabe's expansions.

Unified framework for fixed-income pricing and liability replication.

Paper proposes an $ε$-policy gradient for online pricing, reducing regret to $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{T})$.

A new approach for pricing FX options that uses a single model for all markets.

A model-free hedging method using stock crowding scores.

We study specific nonlinear transformations of the Black-Scholes implied volatility to show remarkable properties of the volatility surface. Model-free bounds on the implied volatility skew are given. Pricing formulas for the European options which are written in terms of the implied volatility are given. In particular…

New PDEs model implied volatility without prior knowledge.

The purpose of this note is to reconcile two different results concerning the model-free upper bound on the price of an American option, given a set of European option prices. Neuberger (2007, `Bounds on the American option') and Hobson and Neuberger (2016, `On the value of being American') argue that the cost of the c…

ANN improves option pricing models by calibrating parameters faster and more accurately.

We propose a Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing and a Super-Replication Theorem in a model-independent framework. We prove these theorems in the setting of finite, discrete time and a market consisting of a risky asset S as well as options written on this risky asset. As a technical condition, we assume the existence…

We invert the Black-Scholes formula. We consider the cases low strike, large strike, short maturity and large maturity. We give explicitly the first 5 terms of the expansions. A method to compute all the terms by induction is also given. At the money, we have a closed form formula for implied lognormal volatility in te…

The paper examines variable annuities pricing and risk management using the Black-Scholes model and identifies key risk drivers.

The price of a stock will rarely follow the assumed model and a curious investor or a Regulatory Authority may wish to obtain a probability model the prices support. A risk neutral probability ${\cal P}^*$ for the stock's price at time $T$ is determined in closed form from the prices before $T$ without assuming a price…

Reinforcement learning improves option pricing and hedging accuracy.

We extend the model-free formula of [Fukasawa 2012] for $\mathbb E[Ψ(X_T)]$, where $X_T=\log S_T/F$ is the log-price of an asset, to functions $Ψ$ of exponential growth. The resulting integral representation is written in terms of normalized implied volatilities. Just as Fukasawa's work provides rigourous ground for Ch…

New algorithm improves RL performance across different environments.

Following a hedging based approach to model free financial mathematics, we prove that it should be possible to make an arbitrarily large profit by investing in those one-dimensional paths which do not possess local times. The local time is constructed from discrete approximations, and it is shown that it is $α$-Hölder …

We provide a model-free pricing-hedging duality in continuous time. For a frictionless market consisting of $d$ risky assets with continuous price trajectories, we show that the purely analytic problem of finding the minimal superhedging price of a path dependent European option has the same value as the purely probabi…