Inference models are a key component in scaling variational inference to deep latent variable models, most notably as encoder networks in variational auto-encoders (VAEs). By replacing conventional optimization-based inference with a learned model, inference is amortized over data examples and therefore more computatio…
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48 results for “model inference”
Recent efforts on combining deep models with probabilistic graphical models are promising in providing flexible models that are also easy to interpret. We propose a variational message-passing algorithm for variational inference in such models. We make three contributions. First, we propose structured inference network…
Simformer uses transformer models to perform flexible Bayesian inference.
problem Current simulation-based inference methods are inflexible and require fixed priors.
method Trains a probabilistic diffusion model with transformer architectures.
result Outperforms state-of-the-art methods on various benchmarks.
Variational Inference shows promise for Bayesian GARCH model estimation.
problem Bayesian estimation of GARCH-family models using Monte Carlo sampling.
method Variational Inference as an alternative to Monte Carlo sampling.
result Variational Inference is a reliable and competitive method for Bayesian learning in GARCH-like models.
Uncertainty-Aware Surrogate-based Amortized Bayesian Inference for Computationally Expensive Modelsstat.ML
UA-SABI uses surrogates to speed up Bayesian inference for expensive models.
problem Inference for computationally expensive models is slow and uncertain.
method Combines surrogate modeling with Amortized Bayesian Inference (ABI) to propagate uncertainties.
result Reliable, fast, and repeated Bayesian inference for expensive models is achieved.
Enhances multi-modular models by directing information flow between components.
problem Improving predictive performance in multi-modular models with misspecification.
method Introduces Semi-Modular Inference (SMI) with an influence parameter to control information flow between modules.
result SMI allows for tunable and directed information flow, improving prediction in some settings.
Unified reinforcement learning methods using hybrid inference.
problem Combining model-based and model-free reinforcement learning approaches.
method Control as Hybrid Inference (CHI) framework.
result CHI algorithm balances model-based and model-free learning.
Probabilistic models can handle causal inference without special tools.
problem Confusion over necessary tools for causal inference.
method Demonstrated through concrete examples that causal questions can be answered using standard probabilistic models.
result Causal questions can be addressed using standard probabilistic modelling and inference.
Face recognition models can be inferred from student models, posing privacy risks.
problem Privacy threats in transfer learning models for face recognition.
method Membership inference attacks and attribute inference from aggregate-level information.
result Sensitive attributes can be inferred from student models, even with limited auxiliary information.
Denoising Diffusion Variational Inference: Diffusion Models as Expressive Variational Posteriorscs.LG
DDVI uses diffusion models for variational inference, improving latent variable model performance.
problem Improving variational inference in latent variable models.
method Introduces diffusion-based variational posteriors trained with a regularized ELBO.
result Outperforms alternative variational posteriors on various benchmarks and a biology task.
Variational inference is a scalable technique for approximate Bayesian inference. Deriving variational inference algorithms requires tedious model-specific calculations; this makes it difficult to automate. We propose an automatic variational inference algorithm, automatic differentiation variational inference (ADVI). …
AGMs outperform EGMs in generalizing to unseen inference tasks.
problem Training graphical models for inference tasks not seen during training.
method Adversarial training of an ensemble of discrete graphical models.
result AGMs significantly outperform EGMs in generalization to unseen tasks.
DMVI uses diffusion models for efficient probabilistic inference in PPLs.
problem Efficient probabilistic inference in complex probabilistic programming languages.
method DMVI employs diffusion models as variational approximations to the posterior distribution, optimizing a bound on the marginal likelihood.
result DMVI produces more accurate posterior inferences than existing methods in PPLs with similar computational cost and less manual tuning.
A new method for safer statistical inference after predictions.
problem Statistical inference with pseudo-outcomes from machine learning predictions.
method Prediction De-Correlated Inference (PDC) framework.
result PDC consistently outperforms supervised methods and can adapt to any model.
BayesFlow trains neural networks for fast Bayesian inference.
problem Fast Bayesian inference for complex models.
method Amortized neural networks for intractable posterior distributions.
result Fast inference through pre-trained neural networks.
A tutorial on variational inference for high-dimensional models.
problem Approximating marginal likelihood and posterior in Bayesian models.
method Parametric approach to variational inference.
result Variational inference is now preferred for high-dimensional models and large datasets.
Book introduces ML and AI for causal inference.
problem Uncertainty in causal relationships.
method Structural equation models, DAGs, SCMs, and Double/Debiased Machine Learning.
result Improved inference in causal models using predictive tools.
Automates infectious disease policy-making via inference in epidemiological models.
problem Improving policy-making for infectious diseases during pandemics.
method Performing inference in existing epidemiological models using a probabilistic programming language.
result Automated inference leads to better disease progression outcomes and policy prescriptions.
Probabilistic inference procedures are usually coded painstakingly from scratch, for each target model and each inference algorithm. We reduce this effort by generating inference procedures from models automatically. We make this code generation modular by decomposing inference algorithms into reusable program-to-progr…
Posterior SBC validates inference conditionally on observed data.
problem Validating inference for specific observed data.
method Simulation-based calibration checking (SBC) adapted to use posterior parameters.
result Validates inference conditionally on observed data.
Improved Bayesian inference for neuronal ensemble inference reduces computational cost.
problem Efficient inference of neuronal ensembles from activity data.
method Modified MCMC algorithm with simulated annealing for hyperparameter control.
result Our method reduces computational cost while maintaining or improving inference accuracy.
CoSMIC extends flow-based SVI to transdimensional problems.
problem Bayesian structure learning and model selection with multi-model parameter spaces.
method Normalizing flows with a combined stochastic variational transdimensional inference approach.
result Improved performance on high-cardinality model spaces.
SING improves state inference in latent SDE models for better drift function estimation.
problem Intractable posterior inference in latent SDE models.
method Natural gradient variational inference.
result SING provides faster and more reliable inference in latent SDE models.
Posterior inference in directed graphical models is commonly done using a probabilistic encoder (a.k.a inference model) conditioned on the input. Often this inference model is trained jointly with the probabilistic decoder (a.k.a generator model). If probabilistic encoder encounters complexities during training (e.g. s…
Paper evaluates membership inference attacks on transfer learning models.
problem Evaluating membership inference attacks on transfer learning models.
method Shadow model training strategy to derive data for membership inference classifier.
result Membership inference attacks can achieve effective performance against transfer learning models.
Hybrid continuous-discrete models naturally represent many real-world applications in robotics, finance, and environmental engineering. Inference with large-scale models is challenging because relational structures deteriorate rapidly during inference with observations. The main contribution of this paper is an efficie…
PriorGuide adapts diffusion models to new priors at test time.
problem Limited applicability of prior distributions in diffusion-based inference.
method PriorGuide uses a guidance approximation to adapt diffusion models to new priors at test time.
result Enhances the versatility of pre-trained inference models by allowing flexible adaptation to new priors.
We analyze a family of methods for statistical causal inference from sample under the so-called Additive Noise Model. While most work on the subject has concentrated on establishing the soundness of the Additive Noise Model, the statistical consistency of the resulting inference methods has received little attention. W…
Approximate probabilistic inference algorithms are central to many fields. Examples include sequential Monte Carlo inference in robotics, variational inference in machine learning, and Markov chain Monte Carlo inference in statistics. A key problem faced by practitioners is measuring the accuracy of an approximate infe…
Improves neural relational inference for dynamic multi-agent trajectories.
problem Limited accuracy of NRI in short output sequences for relational inference in multi-agent trajectories.
method Proposes DYnamic multi-AgentRelational Inference (DYARI) model to handle changing interactions over time.
result DYARI model outperforms NRI in dynamic relational inference tasks.
The variational autoencoder (VAE) is a popular model for density estimation and representation learning. Canonically, the variational principle suggests to prefer an expressive inference model so that the variational approximation is accurate. However, it is often overlooked that an overly-expressive inference model ca…
We study parameter inference in large-scale latent variable models. We first propose an unified treatment of online inference for latent variable models from a non-canonical exponential family, and draw explicit links between several previously proposed frequentist or Bayesian methods. We then propose a novel inference…
VISA improves inference efficiency for complex models.
problem Efficient approximate inference in computationally intensive models.
method Sequential sample-average approximations within a trust region.
result VISA achieves comparable accuracy with computational savings.
The paper investigates model misspecification in Bayesian inference using neural networks.
problem Detecting model misspecification in Bayesian inference with neural networks.
method Conceptualized types of model misspecification and proposed an augmented optimization objective with MMD.
result MMD can detect potentially catastrophic misspecifications in Bayesian inference.
Variational inference offers scalable and flexible tools to tackle intractable Bayesian inference of modern statistical models like Bayesian neural networks and Gaussian processes. For largely over-parameterized models, however, the over-regularization property of the variational objective makes the application of vari…
We develop stochastic variational inference, a scalable algorithm for approximating posterior distributions. We develop this technique for a large class of probabilistic models and we demonstrate it with two probabilistic topic models, latent Dirichlet allocation and the hierarchical Dirichlet process topic model. Usin…
PriorCVAE uses deep generative models to infer hyperparameters in MCMC.
problem Losing hyperparameter information in GP prior inference.
method Conditioning VAE on hyperparameters to encode and estimate them during inference.
result PriorCVAE enables efficient and distinct inference of hyperparameters.
This paper introduces the probabilistic module interface, which allows encapsulation of complex probabilistic models with latent variables alongside custom stochastic approximate inference machinery, and provides a platform-agnostic abstraction barrier separating the model internals from the host probabilistic inferenc…
Stochastic variational inference for collapsed models has recently been successfully applied to large scale topic modelling. In this paper, we propose a stochastic collapsed variational inference algorithm in the sequential data setting. Our algorithm is applicable to both finite hidden Markov models and hierarchical D…
We introduce Dimple, a fully open-source API for probabilistic modeling. Dimple allows the user to specify probabilistic models in the form of graphical models, Bayesian networks, or factor graphs, and performs inference (by automatically deriving an inference engine from a variety of algorithms) on the model. Dimple a…
Unified framework for simulation-based inference learns a single model for multiple tasks.
problem Simulation-based inference for multiple tasks with limited model retraining.
method Unified flow-matching generative model with query-aware masking distribution.
result Competitive performance on various inference tasks and real-world problems.
PSI models and infers feature attributions efficiently and accurately.
problem Modeling and inferring feature attributions in flexible predictive models.
method Probabilistic Shapley inference (PSI) framework using latent random variables and a masking-based neural network architecture.
result PSI learns feature attribution distributions centered at Shapley values, revealing meaningful uncertainty.
PAVI speeds up Bayesian inference for large datasets.
problem Challenges in Bayesian inference for large population studies.
method Plate-amortized Variational Inference (PAVI) that shares parameterization across i.i.d. variables.
result Significant speedup in training variational distributions, orders of magnitude faster.
Noise-aware DP inference improves accuracy for complex models.
problem Inaccurate results and biases in DP inference for complex models.
method Noise-aware stochastic gradient variational inference.
result Accurate coverages and predictive probabilities for complex models.
MPM-ParVI uses particle sampling for variational inference.
problem Variational inference for complex probabilistic models.
method Material Point Method (MPM) for particle-based simulation.
result Deterministic sampling and inference for intractable densities.
New framework for variational coresets simplifies Bayesian inference for complex models.
problem Efficient Bayesian inference for complex models like neural networks.
method Black-box variational inference for coresets that handle intractable posterior distributions.
result Principled application of variational coresets to Bayesian neural networks.
New method for efficient probabilistic inference using masked language modeling.
problem Efficient posterior inference in probabilistic programs with many hyper-parameters.
method Formulate inference as masked language modeling, train a neural network to unmask random values.
result Foundation posterior for zero-shot inference and fine-tuning across a range of programs.
Simulation-based inference of Bayesian hierarchical models while checking for model misspecificationstat.ME
The paper improves SBI for BHMs by diagnosing misspecification and inferring parameters.
problem Model misspecification in Bayesian hierarchical models.
method Two-step framework: latent function diagnosis followed by SBI of target parameters.
result Improved simulation-based inference for complex models without explicit model checking.