This work tackles uncertainty in multi-agent multi-modal trajectory forecasting.
problem Measuring and ranking uncertainty in multi-agent multi-modal trajectory forecasting.
method Proposes collaborative uncertainty (CU) and a CU-aware regression framework.
result The CU-aware regression framework improves SOTA systems' performances.
Framework estimates multiple plausible solutions with uncertainty measures.
problem Machine learning models need to propose multiple plausible solutions with meaningful uncertainty.
method Discrete latent variables model one-to-many mappings, allowing effective conditional probability estimation.
result Framework outperforms state-of-the-art in uncertainty estimation and is practical.
Develops multi-modal neural network models for improved prediction and uncertainty quantification.
problem Improving prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification for multi-modal data.
method Multi-modal Bayesian neural network models with conjugate last-layer estimation using SVI.
result Improved prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to uni-modal models.
Shifts dataset evaluates uncertainty in real-world tasks across modalities.
problem Lack of standard datasets for evaluating uncertainty estimation and robustness to distributional shift.
method Proposes Shifts Dataset for evaluation of uncertainty estimates and robustness to distributional shift across tabular, audio, text, and sensor data.
result Baseline results for tabular weather prediction, machine translation, and SDC vehicle motion prediction.
A framework for uncertainty-aware multimodal learning using conformal Shapley intervals.
problem Uncertainty and modality level importance in multimodal learning.
method Introduces conformal Shapley intervals to quantify modality level importance and uncertainty.
result Demonstrates meaningful uncertainty quantification and strong predictive performance.
Integrates neural encoders into GLMMs for multimodal data analysis.
problem Scalable Bayesian inference for GLMMs assumes low-dimensional tabular predictors and does not handle high-dimensional modalities.
method Jointly learns modality-specific neural encoders with GLMM objective, performs variance-corrected stochastic-gradient MCMC.
result Preserves interpretable fixed and random effects while scaling to large longitudinal datasets.
Unified predictive uncertainty disentangled using deep split ensembles.
problem Understanding and quantifying uncertainty in NNs for real-world applications.
method Deep split ensemble approach using multivariate Gaussian mixture model.
result Inherently well-calibrated models with high flexibility to group features.
Framework corrects model form errors in structural dynamics predictions.
problem Model form errors in parametric models of structural dynamics.
method Gaussian Process Latent Force Model (GPLFM) for non-parametric discrepancy representation, linear Bayesian filtering for state and discrepancy estimation, modal reduction for computational tractability.
result Significant reduction of displacement and rotation prediction errors under unseen excitations.
Paper proposes a new framework for robust multi-modal data fusion under uncertainty.
problem Unexpected modality failures in nonlinear non-Gaussian dynamic processes.
method Dynamic model averaging (DMA) based particle filter (PF) algorithm.
result The proposed solution outperforms state-of-the-art methods in experiments.
This paper uses robust optimization to analyze supply chain resilience.
problem Supply chain resilience analysis of multi-modal logistics networks.
method Robust optimization with budget-of-uncertainty.
result Interactive effects of network size, disruption scale, and degree on resilience.
Assistive robots can potentially improve the quality of life and personal independence of elderly people by supporting everyday life activities. To guarantee a safe and intuitive interaction between human and robot, human intentions need to be recognized automatically. As humans communicate their intentions multimodall…
Bayesian SSI improves modal parameter uncertainty in operational systems.
problem Uncertainty in modal parameters due to stochastic operational systems and lack of forcing information.
method Proposes a Bayesian stochastic subspace identification (SSI) algorithm with a hierarchical probabilistic model and two inference schemes (Markov Chain Monte Carlo and variational Bayes).
result Posterior distributions over modal properties are obtained, showing lower variance for mean values coinciding with natural frequencies.
Bayesian approach reduces FL communication cost by one-shot.
problem High communication cost in optimization-based FL for high-dimensional models.
method Bayesian pseudocoresets and function-space inference for one-shot FL.
result Achieves prediction performance competitive to state-of-the-art with up to 2 orders of magnitude reduction in communication cost.
This paper improves ensemble learning for vision tasks by encouraging diversity in predictions.
problem Generating effective ensembles of neural networks for multi-modal data.
method Explicitly optimize a diversity inducing adversarial loss for learning stochastic latent variables.
result Significant improvements in classification accuracy and out-of-distribution detection compared to baselines.
Human behavior expression and experience are inherently multi-modal, and characterized by vast individual and contextual heterogeneity. To achieve meaningful human-computer and human-robot interactions, multi-modal models of the users states (e.g., engagement) are therefore needed. Most of the existing works that try t…
Enhances uncertainty estimation in medical image segmentation.
problem Frequency-related noise in medical imaging leads to biased uncertainty estimates.
method Extends MC-Dropout to the frequency domain for better uncertainty estimation.
result MC-Frequency Dropout improves calibration and uncertainty in semantic segmentation.
UncertaintyPlayground simplifies uncertainty estimation in Python.
problem Uncertainty estimation in supervised learning tasks.
method Sparse and Variational Gaussian Process Regressions for normally distributed outcomes, Mixed Density Networks for mixed distributions.
result Fast and simplified uncertainty estimation through Python library.
ROME improves density estimation for multi-modal, non-normal data.
problem Robust multi-modal density estimation in non-normal, highly correlated distributions.
method ROME uses clustering to segment multi-modal data into uni-modal clusters, then combines KDE estimates for each cluster.
result ROME outperforms state-of-the-art methods and is more robust to various distributions.
CAMul forecasts with calibrated and accurate multi-view time-series data.
problem Combining diverse data sources for reliable time-series forecasting.
method CAMul integrates multi-modal data views dynamically, assigning importance based on context.
result CAMul outperforms state-of-the-art models by 25% in accuracy and calibration.
CMDE uses deep learning to estimate causal effects from complex data.
problem Handling complex data structures like images for causal effect estimation.
method Causal Multi-task Deep Ensemble (CMDE) framework.
result CMDE outperforms state-of-the-art methods across various datasets and tasks.
Image modality recognition is essential for efficient imaging workflows in current clinical environments, where multiple imaging modalities are used to better comprehend complex diseases. Emerging biomarkers from novel, rare modalities are being developed to aid in such understanding, however the availability of these …
Purpose: Optical imaging is evolving as a key technique for advanced sensing in the operating room. Recent research has shown that machine learning algorithms can be used to address the inverse problem of converting pixel-wise multispectral reflectance measurements to underlying tissue parameters, such as oxygenation. …
SBI improves uncertainty analysis of cardiovascular biomarkers.
problem Mapping waveforms back to plausible physiological parameters.
method Simulation-based inference (SBI) for statistical inference.
result Posterior distributions provide a multi-dimensional representation of uncertainty.
Deep neural networks (DNNs) provide state-of-the-art results for a multitude of applications, but the approaches using DNNs for multimodal audiovisual applications do not consider predictive uncertainty associated with individual modalities. Bayesian deep learning methods provide principled confidence and quantify pred…
TAP transfers knowledge from unlabeled data to improve cross-modal learning.
problem Improving supervised learning performance using unlabeled data from a different modality.
method Probabilistic approach for missing information estimation, kernel regression, cross-attention module, TAP neural network.
result TAP significantly improves generalization across different domains and neural network architectures.
T-EMDE bridges the heterogeneity gap between image and text modalities.
problem Finding similarities between image and text modalities with non-related feature spaces.
method Inspired by EMDE, T-EMDE uses sketches for multimodal operations, avoiding self-attention's quadratic complexity.
result T-EMDE achieves state-of-the-art results and reduces model latency.
This paper studies the nonparametric modal regression problem systematically from a statistical learning view. Originally motivated by pursuing a theoretical understanding of the maximum correntropy criterion based regression (MCCR), our study reveals that MCCR with a tending-to-zero scale parameter is essentially moda…
EMDE efficiently estimates manifold densities for diverse recommendation systems.
problem Efficiently estimating manifold densities for multi-modal recommendation systems.
method EMDE (Efficient Manifold Density Estimator) framework for arbitrary vector representations.
result Established new state-of-the-art results in top-k and session-based recommendation settings.
CARD models predict the distribution of continuous or categorical responses.
problem Uncertainty in predicting continuous or categorical responses.
method Combines denoising diffusion and conditional mean estimation.
result Outperforms state-of-the-art methods in conditional distribution prediction.
A new method improves efficiency of conformal prediction for ensemble models.
problem Efficiently estimating uncertainty for ensemble models without distributional assumptions.
method Proposes a multivariate score function to merge prediction regions of individual models, reducing conservatism.
result Demonstrates more efficient prediction regions compared to existing methods.
Modal regression estimates the local modes of the distribution of Y given X=x, instead of the mean, as in the usual regression sense, and can hence reveal important structure missed by usual regression methods. We study a simple nonparametric method for modal regression, based on a kernel density estimate (KDE) of …
Optimal kernel improves estimation accuracy in modal statistical methods.
problem Estimation accuracy of kernel-based modal statistical methods depends on the kernel used.
method The study theoretically shows an optimal kernel that minimizes asymptotic error criterion.
result An optimal kernel minimizes the error criterion when using an optimal bandwidth.
This paper uses Nested Sampling to improve Gaussian Process uncertainty quantification.
problem Underestimating predictive uncertainty and overfitting in Gaussian Process models.
method Marginalises hyperparameters using Nested Sampling for spectral mixture kernels.
result Improves predictive performance and uncertainty quantification across various data sets.
Recently, a number of statistical problems have found an unexpected solution by inspecting them through a "modal point of view". These include classical tasks such as clustering or regression. This has led to a renewed interest in estimation and inference for the mode. This paper offers an extensive survey of the tradi…
Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) have recently emerged as an alternative way of solving partial differential equations (PDEs) without the need of building elaborate grids, instead, using a straightforward implementation. In particular, in addition to the deep neural network (DNN) for the solution, a second DNN …
Bayesian VFLMSP improves multimodal survival prediction with privacy.
problem Privacy and reliability in multimodal time-to-event prediction.
method Bayesian Vertical Federated Learning (VFL) with differential privacy.
result Consistent improvements in C-index compared to existing methods.
The goal of system identification is to learn about underlying physics dynamics behind the time-series data. To model the probabilistic and nonparametric dynamics model, Gaussian process (GP) have been widely used; GP can estimate the uncertainty of prediction and avoid over-fitting. Traditional GPSSMs, however, are ba…
Unified framework explains few-shot multimodal medical imaging performance.
problem Limited labeled data in rare diseases and low-resource settings.
method PAC learning, VC theory, PAC Bayesian analysis, information gain, Chain of Thought reasoning.
result Unified theoretical framework for few-shot multimodal medical imaging.
COBRA reduces modality gap in cross-modal tasks.
problem Joint embedding spaces fail to sufficiently reduce modality gap in multi-modal tasks.
method COBRA trains image and text modalities in a joint fashion using Contrastive Predictive Coding and Noise Contrastive Estimation.
result COBRA significantly reduces the modality gap and generates robust joint-embedding space.
Bayesian neural networks improve SHD classification and uncertainty quantification.
problem Improving screening for structural heart disease using noninvasive ECG and echocardiography.
method Comparing frequentist and Bayesian neural network classifiers on the EchoNext dataset.
result Bayesian classifiers provide more robust uncertainty quantification.
In the modal approach to clustering, clusters are defined as the local maxima of the underlying probability density function, where the latter can be estimated either non-parametrically or using finite mixture models. Thus, clusters are closely related to certain regions around the density modes, and every cluster corr…
ICYM2I corrects missingness bias in multimodal learning.
problem Missingness patterns between source and target environments affect multimodal learning performance.
method ICYM2I uses inverse probability weighting to correct missingness bias in predictive performance and information gain.
result ICYM2I improves multimodal learning performance by accounting for missingness.
We present a first procedure that can estimate -- with statistical consistency guarantees -- any local-maxima of a density, under benign distributional conditions. The procedure estimates all such local maxima, or modal-sets, of any bounded shape or dimension, including usual point-modes. In practice, modal-…
New divergences improve score-based methods for multi-modal distributions.
problem Blindness problem in score-based divergences for multi-modal distributions.
method Proposed a new family of divergences to mitigate blindness.
result Improved performance in density estimation compared to traditional approaches.
Framework for handling long-tailed multi-modal data.
problem Class imbalance and long-tailed distributions in multi-modal data.
method Multi-expert architecture with modality-specific networks and dynamic fusion weights.
result Framework outperforms existing methods in long-tailed, class-imbalanced scenarios.
Modal regression is aimed at estimating the global mode (i.e., global maximum) of the conditional density function of the output variable given input variables, and has led to regression methods robust against heavy-tailed or skewed noises. The conditional mode is often estimated through maximization of the modal regre…
EGMM improves clustering by better handling uncertainty with evidential framework.
problem Clustering uncertainty and complexity in data.
method Proposes EGMM, a new model-based clustering algorithm using belief functions and EM algorithm.
result EGMM generates more informative evidential partitions and outperforms other algorithms.
Density-based clustering relies on the idea of linking groups to some specific features of the probability distribution underlying the data. The reference to a true, yet unknown, population structure allows to frame the clustering problem in a standard inferential setting, where the concept of ideal population clusteri…