The paper examines risk aggregation under mixtures of marginals, finding that more homogeneous distributions lead to larger uncertainty.
problem Investigating the impact of mixing on risk aggregation uncertainty.
method Analyzes ordering relations and inequalities for aggregation sets under distribution and quantile mixtures.
result More homogeneous marginals result in larger aggregation sets, indicating greater model uncertainty.
BOA improves financial forecasting by combining expert models.
problem Challenges in choosing between multiple machine learning models for financial forecasting.
method Online aggregation of expert models using Bernstein Online Aggregation (BOA) procedure.
result BOA leads to better portfolio performance, higher Sharpe Ratio, and lower shortfall.
New spectral clustering method for multi-layer networks improves accuracy.
problem Detecting community structure in multi-layer networks.
method Integrative spectral clustering based on adaptive layer aggregation.
result Our methods minimize mis-clustering error and outperform existing methods.
Optimal transport aggregation combines distributed MoE models efficiently.
problem Combining local MoE models trained on distributed datasets.
method Optimal transport for minimizing divergence between local and global estimators, with MM algorithm for optimization.
result Aggregated estimator achieves performance comparable to centralized training but with reduced computation time.
Bayesian mixture models inference in federated learning
problem Inference of Bayesian mixture models in federated learning
method Consensus Monte Carlo approach
result Recovery of small clusters with greater accuracy than standard MCMC
Enhances neural forecasting for hierarchically organized time series data.
problem Probabilistic coherent forecasting of time series data across different levels of aggregation.
method Proposes a coherent multivariate mixture output for neural forecasting architectures, optimizing with a composite likelihood objective.
result 13.2% average accuracy improvements on most datasets compared to state-of-the-art baselines.
We improve prediction set coverage by assigning weights to individual sets.
problem Aggregating multiple prediction sets weakens overall coverage guarantee.
method Propose a framework for weighted aggregation of prediction sets.
result Achieve tighter coverage bounds that interpolate between 1−2α and 1−α guarantees. DFMR improves robustness of learning finite mixture models in distributed settings.
problem Learning finite mixture models in distributed settings with Byzantine failures.
method DFMR leverages pairwise L2 distances to filter and retain local estimates, ensuring robust aggregation.
result DFMR achieves optimal convergence rate and asymptotic equivalence to global maximum likelihood estimate.
Regularized mixtures improve inflation and interest rate forecasts, especially correcting overconfidence.
problem Improving density forecasts of Eurozone inflation and real interest rates.
method Construct regularized mixtures of density forecasts with various objectives and penalties.
result Regularized mixtures outperform individual forecasters, especially correcting overconfidence.
The paper presents a method for generating well-calibrated prediction intervals using quality-driven deep ensembles.
problem Generating reliable prediction intervals for regression analysis.
method A multi-objective loss function combining quality measures for prediction intervals and point estimates, with a penalty function to ensure semantic integrity and stability.
result The method produces well-calibrated prediction intervals and point estimates, capturing both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty.
Improved vector quantization using Gaussian mixtures for better codebook utilization.
problem Training instability and information loss in discrete vector quantization.
method Generalized vector quantization with Gaussian mixture model and aggregated categorical posterior evidence lower bound.
result GM-VQ improves codebook utilization and reduces information loss without heuristics.
Paper explores statistical and computational limits of estimating low-rank Gaussian mixtures.
problem Estimating low-rank matrix-variate observations with optimal statistical and computational limits.
method Low-rank Gaussian mixture model (LrMM) and minimax lower bounds.
result Minimax optimality of maximum likelihood estimator and spectral aggregation method.
Evolutionary clustering aims at capturing the temporal evolution of clusters. This issue is particularly important in the context of social media data that are naturally temporally driven. In this paper, we propose a new probabilistic model-based evolutionary clustering technique. The Temporal Multinomial Mixture (TMM)…
New algorithm learns permutations mixtures with optimal sample complexity.
problem Learning mixtures of permutations in high-dimensional settings.
method Combining groups of pairwise comparisons and combinatorial method of moments.
result Optimal sample complexity proportional to log(n) for high-dimensional data.
FABLE incorporates instance features into PWS label models for improved performance.
problem Lack of instance features in existing label models limits their performance.
method FABLE uses a mixture of Bayesian label models and a Gaussian Process classifier to incorporate instance features.
result FABLE achieves the highest averaged performance across nine baselines on benchmark datasets.
New framework models uncertainty in classification debates.
problem Weak interpretability of existing uncertainty quantification methods.
method Courtroom analogy and Mixture of Dirichlet Experts (MoDEX) model.
result MoDEX achieves state-of-the-art uncertainty quantification performance.
Numerous kinds of uncertainties may affect an economy, e.g. economic, political, and environmental ones. We model the aggregate impact by the uncertainties on an economy and its associated financial market by randomised mixtures of Lévy processes. We assume that market participants observe the randomised mixtures only …
This work studies a unified approach to ensemble aggregation using likelihood perspective.
problem Density aggregation in machine learning, focusing on improving ensemble predictions.
method Normalized generalized mean of order r in the log-likelihood framework.
result The optimal range for r is [0,1], providing a principled justification for linear and geometric pooling.
The paper introduces a new class of multivariate mixtures for actuarial applications.
problem Developing a new class of multivariate mixtures for actuarial calculations.
method Proposed a class of multivariate matrix-exponential affine mixtures with matrix-exponential marginals.
result Explicit calculations of actuarial quantities are possible due to the proposed class's properties.
This paper optimizes retraining models using their own predictions and noisy labels.
problem Improving model performance through optimal retraining of noisy labels.
method Developed a principled framework based on approximate message passing (AMP) to analyze iterative retraining procedures.
result Derivation of the Bayes optimal aggregator function to minimize prediction error.
We propose a novel "tree-averaging" model that utilizes the ensemble of classification and regression trees (CART). Each constituent tree is estimated with a subset of similar data. We treat this grouping of subsets as Bayesian ensemble trees (BET) and model them as an infinite mixture Dirichlet process. We show that B…
In this paper, we address the aggregation of dependent stop loss reinsurance risks where the dependence among the ceding insurer(s) risks is governed by the Sarmanov distribution and each individual risk belongs to the class of Erlang mixtures. We investigate the effects of the ceding insurer(s) risk dependencies on th…
We study the problem of separating a mixture of distributions, all of which come from interventions on a known causal bayesian network. Given oracle access to marginals of all distributions resulting from interventions on the network, and estimates of marginals from the mixture distribution, we want to recover the mixi…
Deep networks have gained immense popularity in Computer Vision and other fields in the past few years due to their remarkable performance on recognition/classification tasks surpassing the state-of-the art. One of the keys to their success lies in the richness of the automatically learned features. In order to get ver…
We propose a framework, named Aggregated Wasserstein, for computing a dissimilarity measure or distance between two Hidden Markov Models with state conditional distributions being Gaussian. For such HMMs, the marginal distribution at any time spot follows a Gaussian mixture distribution, a fact exploited to softly matc…
Efficient federated algorithm for calculating transportation barycenter.
problem Efficiently calculating the free-support transportation barycenter in a federated setting.
method Single-loop dual decomposition algorithm that uses only aggregated information.
result Significantly scalable and low-complexity algorithm for federated computation.
We propose a framework, named Aggregated Wasserstein, for computing a dissimilarity measure or distance between two Hidden Markov Models with state conditional distributions being Gaussian. For such HMMs, the marginal distribution at any time position follows a Gaussian mixture distribution, a fact exploited to softly …
A new graph neural network tackles oversmoothing and generalization issues.
problem Oversmoothing and poor generalization for unseen graphs in graph neural networks.
method Graph Entities with Step Mixture via random walk (GESM) that considers both edge-based and node-based features.
result GESM achieves state-of-the-art or comparable performances on benchmark datasets.
We consider a binary unsupervised classification problem where each observation is associated with an unobserved label that we want to retrieve. More precisely, we assume that there are two groups of observation: normal and abnormal. The `normal' observations are coming from a known distribution whereas the distributio…
In this paper, we explore a general Aggregated Gradient Langevin Dynamics framework (AGLD) for the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. We investigate the nonasymptotic convergence of AGLD with a unified analysis for different data accessing (e.g. random access, cyclic access and random reshuffle) and snapshot upd…
Statistical mechanics explains income and wealth distribution in developed economies.
problem Understanding the distribution of income and wealth in developed economies.
method Derive the distribution from firm dynamics using maximum entropy and mixture aggregation.
result Derive the robust two-class structure of income and wealth distribution.
A new method clusters data from multiple sources using a mixture of multilayer SBMs.
problem Aggregating multiple clustering results from different data sources.
method Uses a mixture of multilayer Stochastic Block Models (SBM) to group co-membership matrices.
result Identifies and clusters observations based on their specificities within components.
Study identifies contagion in aggregated defaults despite environmental changes.
problem Identify contagion in aggregated default counts with fluctuating probabilities.
method Compare three contagion mechanisms (Davis-Lo, Torri, Vasicek) under i.i.d. and hierarchical specifications.
result Threshold contagion is largely absorbed into environmental heterogeneity, while cumulative contagion leaves a persistent signature.
The paper proposes methods to identify and sample from mixtures of Mallows models for top-k rankings.
problem Identifying and sampling from mixtures of Mallows models for top-k rankings in a heterogeneous population.
method Efficient sampling algorithms and identifiability proofs for both components of the mixture.
result The identifiability and learnability of the Mallows components' parameters in the mixture.
Method constructs uniformly valid prediction sets across multiple distributions.
problem Uniformly valid prediction sets across multiple distributions.
method Max-p aggregation scheme and optimization programs.
result Optimal and efficient prediction sets for multiple distributions.
This work improves multi-modal generative models by using permutation-invariant neural networks.
problem Improving multi-modal generative models with tighter variational objectives.
method Developed more flexible aggregation schemes based on permutation-invariant neural networks.
result Our variational objective and flexible aggregation models can better approximate the true joint distribution.
New method for disaggregate electricity demand forecasting at household level.
problem Challenges in forecasting electricity demand at individual household level.
method Additive stacking method for probabilistic disaggregate electricity demand forecasting.
result Improved accuracy in disaggregate electricity demand forecasting.
Recently, prediction markets have shown considerable promise for developing flexible mechanisms for machine learning. In this paper, agents with isoelastic utilities are considered. It is shown that the costs associated with homogeneous markets of agents with isoelastic utilities produce equilibrium prices correspondin…
New model improves multimodal autoencoders by learning joint and conditional distributions.
problem Limitations in recent multimodal autoencoders restrict their quality on complex datasets.
method Proposes a multistage training process with variational inference and Normalizing Flows, leveraging shared modality information.
result Achieves state-of-the-art results on benchmark datasets.
Empower efficient representation of distributions through moment-preserving methods.
problem Representing high-dimensional probability measures efficiently and accurately.
method Empower efficient representation of distributions through moment-preserving methods.
result Empowers efficient and accurate representation of high-dimensional probability measures.
FastKCI speeds up KCI tests for causal inference on large datasets.
problem Cubic computational complexity of kernel-based conditional independence tests.
method Mixture-of-experts approach with parallel Gaussian process inference.
result Substantial computational speedups with maintained statistical power.
New class of heavy-tailed distributions shows weighted averages dominate individual variables.
problem Understanding and comparing risks in heavy-tailed distributions.
method Introducing a new class of heavy-tailed distributions and proving stochastic dominance relations.
result Weighted averages of random variables in this class are stochastically larger than individual variables.
Neural network model improves loss reserving accuracy and distribution flexibility.
problem Accurate estimation of claim variability alongside central estimates.
method Mixture Density Neural Network (MDN) with rolling-origin approach.
result MDN consistently outperforms classical models for central estimates and quantiles.
MoE-F combines LLMs online for better time-series prediction.
problem Combining multiple LLMs for online time-series prediction.
method Time-adaptive stochastic filtering techniques to combine experts.
result MoE-F achieves 17% absolute and 48.5% relative F1 measure improvement.
Differentially private method for synthetic data generation from vertically partitioned data.
problem Generating synthetic data from vertically partitioned data while preserving privacy.
method Differentially private stochastic gradient descent (DP-SGD) algorithm combined with secure multiparty computation (MPC).
result Comparable accuracy to non-partitioned data, demonstrating privacy-preserving synthetic data generation.
Hierarchical Partial-Order Models for Ranking
problem Rank aggregation combining ordered lists
method Hierarchical partial-order models
result Bayesian inference for latent poset hierarchy
Investigates least squares estimation in deterministic MoE models.
problem Complexity and difficulty in analyzing MoE models.
method Least squares estimation under deterministic MoE models.
result Rates of estimating strongly identifiable experts are faster than polynomial experts.
Adversarial MoE learns category-specific models for product search.
problem Variations in product features and importance across categories.
method Mixture of Experts with adversarial regularization and soft gating constraints.
result Improved clustering of gate output vectors and shared experts among similar categories.