Research
On-device research index

arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

Trend · papers per month

55110165220 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for misspecified regression

New methods for CI testing under model misspecification.

problem Challenges in CI testing with misspecified models.
method Proposes new approximations and upper bounds for testing errors of regression-based CI tests.
result Introduces the Rao-Blackwellized Predictor Test (RBPT) robust against misspecified inductive biases.

The paper examines when importance weighting is needed for nonparametric and misspecified models.

problem When is importance weighting correction needed for covariate shift adaptation?
method Analysis of IW-corrected kernel ridge regression in various settings.
result The importance weighting correction is needed for nonparametric and misspecified models to obtain the best approximation of the true unknown function.

Study non-asymptotic bounds for robust estimators under misspecified models.

problem Evaluate performance of robust estimators under adversarial conditions.
method Propose a general approach to adversarial risk analysis, including investigations on generalization and approximation errors.
result Establish non-asymptotic upper bounds for adversarial excess risk under Lipschitz loss functions.

Paper analyzes spectral algorithms under covariate shift, providing convergence rates.

problem Addressing distributional mismatch in regression models.
method Incorporates importance weights into spectral algorithms in RKHS.
result Establishes minimax-optimal convergence rates for misspecified cases.

Paper analyzes SGD in kernel regression, showing it outperforms offline methods.

problem Performance of SGD in kernel regression compared to offline methods.
method Analyzes Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) in kernel regression under misspecified models.
result SGD achieves min-max optimal rates up to constants, avoiding saturation.

Paper presents a machine learning method to improve significance tests for misspecified linear models.

problem Misspecification of linear assumptions in social science models leads to inaccurate significance levels.
method Apply machine learning to fit ground truth function, calculate linear approximation, and adjust the estimator.
result The method significantly outperforms linear regression for non-linear ground truth functions.

Unified framework for semi-supervised regression with misspecified models.

problem Estimating regression coefficients in conditional mean models with unlabeled data.
method Developed an augmented inverse probability weighted (AIPW) method using regularized calibrated estimators for PS and OR nuisance models.
result The proposed estimator is consistent, asymptotically normal, and provides valid confidence intervals even with misspecified OR models and high-dimensional data.

New algorithm mitigates misspecification amplification in regression models with covariate shift.

problem Distribution shift and model misspecification in regression models.
method Developed a new algorithm inspired by robust optimization to avoid misspecification amplification.
result No misspecification amplification while still achieving optimal statistical rates.

Study optimizes learning rates for conditional mean embedding estimates.

problem Consistency of kernel ridge regression for conditional mean embedding.
method Adaptive statistical learning rate derived for misspecified setting.
result Upper bound matches optimal O(logn/n)O(\log n / n) rates without assuming finite dimensionality.

Bayesian regression underestimates parameter uncertainties in noisy models.

problem Parameter uncertainties are underestimated in Bayesian regression for imperfect models.
method Analyzed and designed an ansatz to correct for misspecification in near-deterministic surrogate models.
result Posterior distributions must cover all training points to avoid divergent generalization error.

New method tackles concept shifts in nonparametric regression using robust and adaptive transfer learning.

problem Concept shifts and sample scarcity in target domains hinder nonparametric regression.
method Robust and adaptive transfer learning procedure leveraging fixed bandwidth Gaussian kernels.
result Spectral algorithms with fixed bandwidth Gaussian kernels attain minimax convergence rates for nonparametric regression.

Nonparametric modeling approaches show very promising results in the area of system identification and control. A naturally provided model confidence is highly relevant for system-theoretical considerations to provide guarantees for application scenarios. Gaussian process regression represents one approach which provid…

2018-11-16abs ↗pdf ↗

A universal framework for constructing confidence sets using sequential likelihood mixing.

problem Constructing reliable confidence sets for realizable likelihood functions.
method Sequential likelihood mixing, integrating Bayesian inference and regret inequalities.
result Establishes fundamental connections and provable coverage guarantees for various inference techniques.

New method optimizes model selection in high-dimensional regression models.

problem Model selection in high-dimensional misspecified regression models with covariate shift.
method Importance-weighted orthogonal greedy algorithm (IWOGA) and high-dimensional importance-weighted information criterion (HDIWIC).
result IWOGA + HDIWIC achieves optimal convergence rates in terms of prediction error.

We propose a new active learning algorithm for parametric linear regression with random design. We provide finite sample convergence guarantees for general distributions in the misspecified model. This is the first active learner for this setting that provably can improve over passive learning. Unlike other learning se…

2014-10-22abs ↗pdf ↗

Optimal and safe semi-supervised learning estimator for high-dimensional data.

problem Improving regression parameter estimation with unlabeled data in high-dimensional settings.
method Established minimax lower bound, proposed optimal and safe semi-supervised estimators.
result Optimal semi-supervised estimator achieves the minimax lower bound.

Paper introduces semi-supervised linear extremile regression for high-dimensional data.

problem Challenges in high-dimensional extremile regression due to data sparsity and overfitting.
method Proposes semi-supervised learning for linear extremile regression, achieving n\sqrt{n}-consistency.
result Demonstrates improved estimation efficiency and performance in high-dimensional settings.

Study confirms learning rates for vector-valued spectral algorithms, proving consistency.

problem Theoretical confirmation of learning rates for vector-valued spectral algorithms.
method Rigorous analysis of learning rates for various vector-valued spectral algorithms, including kernel ridge regression and gradient descent.
result Upper and lower bounds on learning rates for vector-valued spectral algorithms, proving minimax optimality in various scenarios.

The paper analyzes how data augmentation affects the test error in regression models.

problem Understanding the impact of data augmentation on the test error in regression models.
method Characterizes the test error in terms of population quantities and augmentation statistics.
result Provides a tight characterization of the test error in mean squared error.

New PG losses improve decision optimization in misspecified models.

problem Improving decision optimization in models that are not perfectly specified.
method Introducing Perturbation Gradient (PG) losses to connect decision loss with directional derivatives and optimizing using gradient techniques.
result PG losses yield best-in-class policies asymptotically, even in misspecified settings.

Optimal rates for vector-valued regression on various norms.

problem Optimal rates for vector-valued ridge regression on continuous norms.
method Combining standard capacity assumptions with tensor product constructions of vector-valued interpolation spaces.
result Optimal rates for vector-valued ridge regression, independent of output space dimension.

Study highlights how model choice affects uncertainty estimation in neural network regression.

problem Uncertainty estimation under model misspecification in neural network regression.
method Analyzed the impact of model choice on uncertainty estimation in neural network regression, focusing on aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties.
result Model misspecification leads to unreliable uncertainty estimates, highlighting the importance of choosing appropriate models.

Reward hacking exploits misspecified rewards, affecting agent capabilities and true performance.

problem Reward hacking in RL models exploiting reward misspecifications.
method Constructed four RL environments with misspecified rewards; analyzed agent capabilities and behavior.
result More capable agents exploit reward misspecifications, achieving higher proxy reward but lower true reward.

Study on sequential prediction with log-loss, focusing on well-specified and misspecified cases.

problem Sequential prediction with log-loss under different specification conditions.
method Analysis of cumulative regret in well-specified and misspecified cases for a Gaussian location hypothesis class.
result Cumulative regrets in well-specified and misspecified cases asymptotically coincide for the dd-dimensional Gaussian location hypothesis class.

Jointly learns feature and sample relevancies for robust sparse recovery.

problem Sparse recovery sensitivity to data contaminants like outliers or misspecified noise.
method Jointly learns feature and sample relevancies via marginal likelihood optimization.
result Consistent sparse and robust prediction models across diverse tasks.

Maximum likelihood estimator performance in logistic regression analyzed.

problem Performance of maximum likelihood estimator in logistic regression.
method Sharp non-asymptotic guarantees for existence and excess logistic risk.
result Sharp guarantees for the existence and excess risk of MLE in logistic regression.

In a regression setup with deterministic design, we study the pure aggregation problem and introduce a natural extension from the Gaussian distribution to distributions in the exponential family. While this extension bears strong connections with generalized linear models, it does not require identifiability of the par…

2009-11-16abs ↗pdf ↗

Suppose an investor aims at Delta hedging a European contingent claim h(S(T))h(S(T)) in a jump-diffusion model, but incorrectly specifies the stock price's volatility and jump sensitivity, so that any hedging strategy is calculated under a misspecified model. When does the erroneously computed strategy super-replicate the t…

2019-10-20abs ↗pdf ↗

Improved algorithm for misspecified MLMDPs with bounded regret and space/time complexities.

problem Misspecified linear Markov decision processes.
method Proposes an algorithm with three desirable properties: bounded regret, bounded space/time complexities, and no need for misspecification input.
result Regret scales as Kmax{εextmis,εexttol}K \max \{ \varepsilon_{ ext{mis}}, \varepsilon_{ ext{tol}} \}, improving existing bounds.

New method improves GP uncertainty quantification for misspecified priors.

problem Uncertainty quantification for GPs under incorrect priors.
method Constructs a confidence sequence using martingale techniques.
result Empirically outperforms standard GP methods in robustness and utility for Bayesian Optimization.

Paper analyzes GLM-tron for high-dimensional ReLU regression, providing upper and lower bounds.

problem Learning a single ReLU neuron in high-dimensional settings with overparameterization.
method Perceptron-type algorithm GLM-tron, with finite-sample analysis.
result Sharp characterization of high-dimensional ReLU regression problems via GLM-tron, contrasting with SGD.

Downsampling can improve generalization in ridgeless linear regression, especially with optimal sketching size.

problem Improving generalization in ridgeless linear regression with limited data.
method Investigating the effects of downsampling on the sketched ridgeless least square estimator in the proportional regime.
result Optimal sketching size minimizes out-of-sample prediction risks and stabilizes risk curves.

Semi-supervised learning improves prediction using unlabeled data.

problem Improving prediction performance using unlabeled data.
method General methodology for semi-supervised Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) focusing on generalized linear regression.
result Adaptive SSL can achieve substantial improvement over supervised and null models in various settings.

Framework predicts responses in misspecified systems using GPLFM and BNNs.

problem Predicting responses in dynamical systems with model misspecification.
method Integrates GPLFM and BNNs for uncertainty-aware inference and prediction.
result Systematic propagation of uncertainty from diagnosis to prediction.

Self-consistency improves the accuracy of model comparison methods.

problem Improving the accuracy of model comparison methods when simulation models are misspecified.
method Supplement traditional simulation-based training with a self-consistency loss on unlabeled real data.
result Self-consistency training improves model comparison accuracy, especially in open-world scenarios.

Dropout has recently emerged as a powerful and simple method for training neural networks preventing co-adaptation by stochastically omitting neurons. Dropout is currently not grounded in explicit modelling assumptions which so far has precluded its adoption in Bayesian modelling. Using Bayesian entropic reasoning we s…

2015-08-12abs ↗pdf ↗

Algorithm reduces regret in misspecified linear contextual bandits.

problem Misspecified linear contextual bandits with bounded misspecification.
method Data selection scheme for online regression, leveraging uncertainty.
result Regret bound of O~(d2/Δ)\tilde O(d^2/Δ) when ζO~(Δ/d)ζ \leq \tilde O(Δ/\sqrt{d}).

Bayesian algorithms perform well even with misspecified priors, especially in meta-learning.

problem Performance degradation of Bayesian algorithms with misspecified priors.
method Thompson sampling and meta-learning analysis with misspecified priors.
result Thompson sampling's performance degrades gracefully with misspecification, with a bound of ildeO(H2ε) ilde{\mathcal{O}}(H^2 ε).

New algorithms for optimizing functions with noisy feedback, even when the model is misspecified.

problem Optimizing a black-box function with noisy bandit feedback, especially when the model is misspecified.
method Developed two algorithms based on Gaussian process methods: EC-GP-UCB and Phased GP Uncertainty Sampling.
result Achieved optimal dependence on misspecification error without prior knowledge, and effective in stochastic contextual settings.