A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Machine learning confound removal biases results, leading to misleading predictions.
We analyse an issue when comparing survival curves between two subgroups. We show that there is a direct relationship between estimates of subgroups' survival at a time point and positive and negative predictive values in the binary classification settings. Our findings present a case where current methods of comparing…
AXE evaluates explanations to avoid misleading Rashomon set model selection.
Additionally to the extensive use in clinical medicine, biological age (BA) in legal medicine is used to assess unknown chronological age (CA) in applications where identification documents are not available. Automatic methods for age estimation proposed in the literature are predicting point estimates, which can be mi…
With the advent of highly predictive but opaque deep learning models, it has become more important than ever to understand and explain the predictions of such models. Existing approaches define interpretability as the inverse of complexity and achieve interpretability at the cost of accuracy. This introduces a risk of …
Saliency methods aim to explain the predictions of deep neural networks. These methods lack reliability when the explanation is sensitive to factors that do not contribute to the model prediction. We use a simple and common pre-processing step ---adding a constant shift to the input data--- to show that a transformatio…
Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) place priors over the parameters in a neural network. Inference in BNNs, however, is difficult; all inference methods for BNNs are approximate. In this work, we empirically compare the quality of predictive uncertainty estimates for 10 common inference methods on both regression and clas…
The increasing occurrence of ordinal data, mainly sociodemographic, led to a renewed research interest in ordinal regression, i.e. the prediction of ordered classes. Besides model accuracy, the interpretation of these models itself is of high relevance, and existing approaches therefore enforce e.g. model sparsity. For…
Cancer analysis and prediction is the utmost important research field for well-being of humankind. The Cancer data are analyzed and predicted using machine learning algorithms. Most of the researcher claims the accuracy of the predicted results within 99%. However, we show that machine learning algorithms can easily pr…
Method removes misleading data to improve ML model accuracy.
Discovering novel materials can be greatly accelerated by iterative machine learning-informed proposal of candidates---active learning. However, standard \emph{global-scope error} metrics for model quality are not predictive of discovery performance, and can be misleading. We introduce the notion of \emph{Pareto shell-…
Social networks offer a ready channel for fake and misleading news to spread and exert influence. This paper examines the performance of different reputation algorithms when applied to a large and statistically significant portion of the news that are spread via Twitter. Our main result is that simple crowdsourcing-bas…
Post-estimation smoothing improves prediction accuracy with structural indices.
Unsupervised learning models can produce accurate but misleading predictions.
ManiGen generates adversarial examples without classifier knowledge.
New method explains survival analysis models using median-SHAP.
New method tackles label noise on imbalanced datasets by considering class-specific uncertainty.
This work challenges the assumption that shorter conformal prediction intervals are always better.
We propose a new objective, the counterfactual objective, unifying existing objectives for off-policy policy gradient algorithms in the continuing reinforcement learning (RL) setting. Compared to the commonly used excursion objective, which can be misleading about the performance of the target policy when deployed, our…
Using AI predictions as data can mislead inference, study shows.
Predicts next actions in soccer possessions using path signatures.
Google Trends can lead to misleading forecasts if not used carefully.
Joint training improves model accuracy by selectively using privileged information.
Interpreting black box classifiers, such as deep networks, allows an analyst to validate a classifier before it is deployed in a high-stakes setting. A natural idea is to visualize the deep network's representations, so as to "see what the network sees". In this paper, we demonstrate that standard dimension reduction m…
Modern learning algorithms excel at producing accurate but complex models of the data. However, deploying such models in the real-world requires extra care: we must ensure their reliability, robustness, and absence of undesired biases. This motivates the development of models that are equally accurate but can be also e…
System uses conformal prediction to help experts make accurate decisions without understanding when to trust it.
Feature selection from wide datasets leads to misleading results.
In this work, we take a closer look at the evaluation of two families of methods for enriching information from knowledge graphs: Link Prediction and Entity Alignment. In the current experimental setting, multiple different scores are employed to assess different aspects of model performance. We analyze the informative…
Adversarial examples are intentionally perturbed images that mislead classifiers. These images can, however, be easily detected using denoising algorithms, when high-frequency spatial perturbations are used, or can be noticed by humans, when perturbations are large. In this paper, we propose EdgeFool, an adversarial im…
Ensemble learning is a methodology that integrates multiple DNN learners for improving prediction performance of individual learners. Diversity is greater when the errors of the ensemble prediction is more uniformly distributed. Greater diversity is highly correlated with the increase in ensemble accuracy. Another attr…
Paper proposes Coalitional BAE to improve explainability of unsupervised deep learning models.
Proposes a framework to assess feature importance without algorithm constraints.
In modeling multivariate time series, it is important to allow time-varying smoothness in the mean and covariance process. In particular, there may be certain time intervals exhibiting rapid changes and others in which changes are slow. If such time-varying smoothness is not accounted for, one can obtain misleading inf…
In this paper, we present a novel attack against authorship attribution of source code. We exploit that recent attribution methods rest on machine learning and thus can be deceived by adversarial examples of source code. Our attack performs a series of semantics-preserving code transformations that mislead learning-bas…
Softmax confidence misrepresents uncertainty in neural networks.
Weak supervision challenges black-box models, suggesting fusion of modeling cultures.
How can we understand classification decisions made by deep neural networks? Many existing explainability methods rely solely on correlations and fail to account for confounding, which may result in potentially misleading explanations. To overcome this problem, we define the Causal Concept Effect (CaCE) as the causal e…
An adversarial machine learning approach is introduced to launch jamming attacks on wireless communications and a defense strategy is presented. A cognitive transmitter uses a pre-trained classifier to predict the current channel status based on recent sensing results and decides whether to transmit or not, whereas a j…
The paper tackles fair set-valued classification under demographic parity constraints.
ANGLE tackles circular data regression, improving predictive performance.
Even before deep learning architectures became the de facto models for complex computer vision tasks, the softmax function was, given its elegant properties, already used to analyze the predictions of feedforward neural networks. Nowadays, the output of the softmax function is also commonly used to assess the strength …
Waldo method constructs valid confidence regions for simulator-based inference.
Collaborative filtering is a useful technique for exploiting the preference patterns of a group of users to predict the utility of items for the active user. In general, the performance of collaborative filtering depends on the number of rated examples given by the active user. The more the number of rated examples giv…
Deep neural networks (DNNs) are vulnerable to maliciously generated adversarial examples. These examples are intentionally designed by making imperceptible perturbations and often mislead a DNN into making an incorrect prediction. This phenomenon means that there is significant risk in applying DNNs to safety-critical …
Next-gen reservoir computers fail to predict complex processes, highlighting need for better architectures.
Deep neural networks (DNNs) have shown huge superiority over humans in image recognition, speech processing, autonomous vehicles and medical diagnosis. However, recent studies indicate that DNNs are vulnerable to adversarial examples (AEs), which are designed by attackers to fool deep learning models. Different from re…
We study empirical covariance matrices in finance. Due to the limited amount of available input information, these objects incorporate a huge amount of noise, so their naive use in optimization procedures, such as portfolio selection, may be misleading. In this paper we investigate a recently introduced filtering proce…
Improves visualization of high-dimensional data by correcting misleading artifacts in neighbor embedding methods.