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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

169,341 papers · 148 categories

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111223334445 · Jun 202019922001200920182026
48 results for mean inference

A new particle algorithm improves mean-field variational inference.

problem Efficiently approximating nonparametric posterior distributions in machine learning.
method Introduces PArticle VI (PAVI), a novel particle-based algorithm for nonparametric mean-field approximation.
result Obtains non-asymptotic error bounds for PArticle VI, providing the first end-to-end guarantee for particle-based MFVI.

The mean field algorithm is a widely used approximate inference algorithm for graphical models whose exact inference is intractable. In each iteration of mean field, the approximate marginals for each variable are updated by getting information from the neighbors. This process can be equivalently converted into a feedf…

2014-10-21abs ↗pdf ↗

Bayesian deconditional embeddings solve complex function recovery.

problem Recovering original functions from conditional mean observations.
method Formalizes deconditional kernel mean embeddings as Bayesian inference, connects to task-transformed Gaussian processes.
result Establishes deconditional kernel means as posterior predictive mean, providing Bayesian interpretations and uncertainty.

KELFI improves inference accuracy in likelihood-free settings with limited simulations.

problem Intractable likelihood evaluations in likelihood-free inference.
method Kernel embedding likelihood-free inference (KELFI) learns model hyperparameters to balance accuracy and efficiency.
result Improved accuracy and efficiency on challenging inference problems in ecology.

A spiking neural network model for probabilistic inference of binary Markov random fields.

problem Implementing probabilistic inference in spiking neural networks.
method Designing a spiking recurrent neural network and proving its equivalence to mean-field inference of binary Markov random fields.
result The spiking neural network model can implement inference of arbitrary binary Markov random fields.

New algorithm improves mean field inference in probabilistic models.

problem Improving mean field inference in probabilistic models.
method DR-DoubleGreedy algorithm for continuous DR-submodular maximization with box-constraints.
result Achieves optimal 1/2 approximation ratio for continuous DR-submodular maximization.

TS-K-means improves financial data clustering with dynamic time warping.

problem Inadequate handling of temporal dependencies in financial time series data.
method Integrates Dynamic Time Warping into Time Series K-means for financial data.
result TS-K-means outperforms traditional K-means in financial data analysis.

Study shows mean field method's effectiveness in community detection.

problem Theoretical and practical guarantees for community detection using mean field variational inference.
method Iterative Coordinate Ascent Variational Inference algorithm for the Stochastic Block Model.
result The algorithm converges linearly to the minimax rate within log n iterations.

Mean field Gaussian inference limits mutual information to regularize neural networks.

problem Understanding and quantifying the regularization effect of mean field Gaussian inference.
method Empirically observed and theoretically quantified mutual information limitation through noise.
result Bounding mutual information between parameters and data effectively regularizes neural networks.

New methods for Bayesian inference using mean shift particle systems.

problem Approximating expectations with unnormalized densities in Bayesian inference.
method Mean shift interacting particle systems that minimize maximum mean discrepancy (MMD).
result Mean shift interacting particle systems converge quickly and capture complex distributions.

A method for rank verification in multivariate Gaussian data, improving on existing approaches.

problem Determining the top KK means in multivariate Gaussian data with any covariance structure.
method Selective inference tools to generalize the two-sided difference-of-means test for any KK and covariance structure.
result The method provides a generalization for rank verification in multivariate Gaussian data with any covariance structure.

Paper improves statistical efficiency of median-of-means estimator for Byzantine robust distributed inference.

problem Byzantine robustness in distributed learning systems.
method Variance reduced median-of-means (VRMOM) estimator for Byzantine robust distributed inference.
result Achieves a fast convergence rate with only a constant number of rounds of communications.

The paper studies stability of mean-field variational inference for log-concave distributions.

problem Stability of mean-field variational inference for log-concave distributions.
method Novel approach via linearized optimal transport, lifting non-convex problem to convex optimization over transport maps.
result Dimension-free Lipschitz continuity of the MFVI optimizer with respect to the target distribution, measured in 2-Wasserstein distance.

New method for estimating counterfactual means in adaptive experiments.

problem Inference for counterfactual means in sequentially designed experiments with adaptive treatment policies.
method Latent factor model and nearest neighbors method for estimation.
result Asymptotically valid confidence intervals for counterfactual means established.

The paper uses deep neural networks to estimate and infer ATE without needing to know the dimension of the data.

problem Estimating and inferring the average treatment effect (ATE) in complex data settings.
method The paper uses deep neural networks to estimate the mean regression function and then calculates the ATE. It establishes consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimators.
result The deep neural network estimates of ATE are consistent and asymptotically normal, providing dimension-free rates.

Study shows TAP free energy minimization provides better posterior inference in high-dimensional linear models.

problem Deviation from true posterior mean and underestimation of posterior uncertainty in variational inference.
method Minimization of TAP free energy in a high-dimensional asymptotic framework, showing geometric and statistical properties.
result Local minimizer of TAP free energy provides consistent estimate of posterior marginals and correctly calibrated posterior inference.

New method uses Fokker-Planck equation for sampling and inference.

problem Intractability of evaluating probability density in practical applications.
method Reformulates Fokker-Planck equation as a particle flow method, using velocity field.
result Turns intractable density evaluation into an advantage for variational inference, kernel mean embeddings, and sequential Monte Carlo.

ALO-CV approximates leave-one-out error in proportional regime.

problem Estimating generalization error in high-dimensional settings.
method Developed new analysis for ALO-CV, showed consistency under strong convexity.
result ALO-CV approximates leave-one-out error up to negligible error.

New method for estimating mean in SS inference with selection bias and decaying overlap.

problem Estimating mean in SS inference with selection bias and decaying overlap.
method Double Robust Semi-Supervised (DRSS) mean estimator.
result Consistent estimation of mean with correct specification of outcome or propensity score model.

Improved MMD estimator for likelihood-free inference.

problem Computational challenges in estimating MMD for likelihood-free inference.
method Optimally-weighted MMD estimator with improved sample complexity.
result Significantly improved sample complexity for accurate MMD estimation.

Develops a new framework for analyzing MFVI algorithms.

problem Analyzes mean field variational inference (MFVI) formulations.
method Inspired by variational Bayesian formulations, represents MFVI problem in three ways: gradient flow, Fokker-Planck-like equations, and diffusion process.
result Establishes rigorous guarantees for convergence of time-discretized coordinate ascent variational inference algorithms.

New algorithm speeds up large-scale statistical inference.

problem Efficiently solving large-scale mean-field variational inference problems.
method Developed a novel primal-dual algorithm (PD-VI) and a block-preconditioned extension (P2^2D-VI) for mean-field variational inference.
result PD-VI and P2^2D-VI achieve faster convergence and better solution quality compared to existing methods.

MGVI improves variational inference by accounting for correlations without mean-field simplifications.

problem Approximating Bayesian inference problems with variational methods, especially for high-dimensional models.
method Metric Gaussian Variational Inference (MGVI) iteratively approximates the posterior with Gaussian distributions, optimizing the KL-divergence and using natural gradient descent.
result MGVI achieves higher accuracy and significant speedup compared to traditional methods, scaling linearly in computational time and memory.

New method for faster, scalable inference in coupled Gaussian Processes.

problem Coupled Gaussian Processes require scalable inference methods for posterior uncertainty.
method Structured variational inference for multi-Gaussian Processes.
result Fast and scalable inference capturing posterior dependencies.

Variational inference simplifies Bayesian model approximations.

problem Approximating complex Bayesian posterior distributions.
method Solving optimization problems to approximate posterior distributions with simpler variational distributions.
result Variational inference has been successfully applied in various models and large-scale applications.

The paper analyzes mean-field variational Bayes for complex models and proposes new uncertainty quantification methods.

problem Approximating posterior distributions in complex Bayesian models with latent variables.
method Non-asymptotic analysis on mean-field variational inference, showing that a normal distribution with the MLE center approximates the posterior well.
result The mean-field approximation matches the MLE up to higher-order terms and is essentially efficient for regular parametric models.

An autonomous variational inference algorithm for arbitrary graphical models requires the ability to optimize variational approximations over the space of model parameters as well as over the choice of tractable families used for the variational approximation. In this paper, we present a novel combination of graph part…

2012-07-11abs ↗pdf ↗

New method infers population dynamics from snapshots using path space optimization.

problem Recover dynamics of a population from its temporal marginals.
method Grid-free algorithm using Schrödinger bridges coupled via noisy gradient descent in mean-field limit.
result Global convergence to min-entropy estimator with end-to-end theoretical guarantees.

Proposes a method to evaluate generalizability in causal inference models.

problem Lack of formal procedures to statistically evaluate generalizability in causal inference.
method Frugal parameterization to simulate from causal benchmarks, using mean and distributional regression methods.
result Ensures more realistic evaluations of causal inference models, avoiding over-reliance on conventional metrics.