A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
New method for MAP inference using Benders' decomposition.
Bayesian approach improves ODE solution accuracy.
The paper reinterprets Bayesian priors and posteriors using Riemannian manifolds.
New algorithm scales NDPP learning and inference to large item collections.
This work clarifies the role of inference types in planning.
New taxonomy and improved solvers for discrete energy minimization.
Approximations of loopy belief propagation, including expectation propagation and approximate message passing, have attracted considerable attention for probabilistic inference problems. This paper proposes and analyzes a generalization of Opper and Winther's expectation consistent (EC) approximate inference method. Th…
This paper presents a new approach, called perturb-max, for high-dimensional statistical inference that is based on applying random perturbations followed by optimization. This framework injects randomness to maximum a-posteriori (MAP) predictors by randomly perturbing the potential function for the input. A classic re…
Convex optimization method infers latent structure in random dot product graphs.
Develops a method to infer partial rankings from sparse comparisons.
We present a new proximal bundle method for Maximum-A-Posteriori (MAP) inference in structured energy minimization problems. The method optimizes a Lagrangean relaxation of the original energy minimization problem using a multi plane block-coordinate Frank-Wolfe method that takes advantage of the specific structure of …
We consider active maximum a posteriori (MAP) inference problem for Hidden Markov Models (HMM), where, given an initial MAP estimate of the hidden sequence, we select to label certain states in the sequence to improve the estimation accuracy of the remaining states. We develop an analytical approach to this problem for…
The paper parallelizes HMM inference for efficient long-term computations.
In this paper, we study the trade-offs of different inference approaches for Bayesian matrix factorisation methods, which are commonly used for predicting missing values, and for finding patterns in the data. In particular, we consider Bayesian nonnegative variants of matrix factorisation and tri-factorisation, and com…
We consider the problem of maximum a posteriori (MAP) inference in discrete graphical models. We present a parallel MAP inference algorithm called Bethe-ADMM based on two ideas: tree-decomposition of the graph and the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM). However, unlike the standard ADMM, we use an inexa…
In this paper, we consider the sigmoid Gaussian Hawkes process model: the baseline intensity and triggering kernel of Hawkes process are both modeled as the sigmoid transformation of random trajectories drawn from Gaussian processes (GP). By introducing auxiliary latent random variables (branching structure, Pólya-Gamm…
This paper addresses the estimation of parameters of a Bayesian network from incomplete data. The task is usually tackled by running the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm several times in order to obtain a high log-likelihood estimate. We argue that choosing the maximum log-likelihood estimate (as well as the max…
Bayesian inference over admissible histories leads to irreversible kinetics.
In this paper we relate the partition function to the max-statistics of random variables. In particular, we provide a novel framework for approximating and bounding the partition function using MAP inference on randomly perturbed models. As a result, we can use efficient MAP solvers such as graph-cuts to evaluate the c…
Paper introduces variational inference for Bayesian inverse problems with gamma hyperpriors.
Maximum a posteriori (MAP) inference is a fundamental computational paradigm for statistical inference. In the setting of graphical models, MAP inference entails solving a combinatorial optimization problem to find the most likely configuration of the discrete-valued model. Linear programming (LP) relaxations in the Sh…
Inference in general Markov random fields (MRFs) is NP-hard, though identifying the maximum a posteriori (MAP) configuration of pairwise MRFs with submodular cost functions is efficiently solvable using graph cuts. Marginal inference, however, even for this restricted class, is in #P. We prove new formulations of deriv…
Here, we present a novel approach to solve the problem of reconstructing perceived stimuli from brain responses by combining probabilistic inference with deep learning. Our approach first inverts the linear transformation from latent features to brain responses with maximum a posteriori estimation and then inverts the …
Bayesian model averaging fails under covariate shift, affecting neural networks' performance.
One of the core problems in statistical models is the estimation of a posterior distribution. For topic models, the problem of posterior inference for individual texts is particularly important, especially when dealing with data streams, but is often intractable in the worst case. As a consequence, existing methods for…
We study how to communicate findings of Bayesian inference to third parties, while preserving the strong guarantee of differential privacy. Our main contributions are four different algorithms for private Bayesian inference on proba-bilistic graphical models. These include two mechanisms for adding noise to the Bayesia…
Combining Bayesian nonparametrics and a forward model selection strategy, we construct parsimonious Bayesian deep networks (PBDNs) that infer capacity-regularized network architectures from the data and require neither cross-validation nor fine-tuning when training the model. One of the two essential components of a PB…
We show theoretical similarities between the Least Squares Support Vector Regression (LS-SVR) model with a Radial Basis Functions (RBF) kernel and maximum a posteriori (MAP) inference on Bayesian RBF networks with a specific Gaussian prior on the regression weights. Although previous works have pointed out similar expr…
Post-process Bayesian inference speeds up posterior approximation.
Paper proposes an efficient algorithm for nonnegative binary matrix factorization.
The paper tackles MAP inference over non-convex constraints in safety-critical settings.
We introduce a globally-convergent algorithm for optimizing the tree-reweighted (TRW) variational objective over the marginal polytope. The algorithm is based on the conditional gradient method (Frank-Wolfe) and moves pseudomarginals within the marginal polytope through repeated maximum a posteriori (MAP) calls. This m…
We propose Lomax delegate racing (LDR) to explicitly model the mechanism of survival under competing risks and to interpret how the covariates accelerate or decelerate the time to event. LDR explains non-monotonic covariate effects by racing a potentially infinite number of sub-risks, and consequently relaxes the ubiqu…
MAP perturbation models have emerged as a powerful framework for inference in structured prediction. Such models provide a way to efficiently sample from the Gibbs distribution and facilitate predictions that are robust to random noise. In this paper, we propose a provably polynomial time randomized algorithm for learn…
We define a new class of Bayesian point estimators, which we refer to as risk averse. Using this definition, we formulate axioms that provide natural requirements for inference, e.g. in a scientific setting, and show that for well-behaved estimation problems the axioms uniquely characterise an estimator. Namely, for es…
Boolean matrix factorization and Boolean matrix completion from noisy observations are desirable unsupervised data-analysis methods due to their interpretability, but hard to perform due to their NP-hardness. We treat these problems as maximum a posteriori inference problems in a graphical model and present a message p…
Latent Dirichlet analysis, or topic modeling, is a flexible latent variable framework for modeling high-dimensional sparse count data. Various learning algorithms have been developed in recent years, including collapsed Gibbs sampling, variational inference, and maximum a posteriori estimation, and this variety motivat…
Cardinality potentials are a generally useful class of high order potential that affect probabilities based on how many of D binary variables are active. Maximum a posteriori (MAP) inference for cardinality potential models is well-understood, with efficient computations taking O(DlogD) time. Yet efficient marginalizat…
The Cox proportional hazards model is ubiquitous in the analysis of time-to-event data. However, when the data dimension p is comparable to the sample size , maximum likelihood estimates for its regression parameters are known to be biased or break down entirely due to overfitting. This prompted the introduction of …
We propose multivariate nonstationary Gaussian processes for jointly modeling multiple clinical variables, where the key parameters, length-scales, standard deviations and the correlations between the observed output, are all time dependent. We perform posterior inference via Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC). We also prov…
The Dirichlet process mixture (DPM) is a ubiquitous, flexible Bayesian nonparametric statistical model. However, full probabilistic inference in this model is analytically intractable, so that computationally intensive techniques such as Gibb's sampling are required. As a result, DPM-based methods, which have considera…
We introduce an approximate search algorithm for fast maximum a posteriori probability estimation in probabilistic programs, which we call Bayesian ascent Monte Carlo (BaMC). Probabilistic programs represent probabilistic models with varying number of mutually dependent finite, countable, and continuous random variable…
Variational Laplace improves Bayesian neural networks performance.
Improved Kalman filtering with hierarchical variational approach.
Repulsive ensembles improve uncertainty estimates in PINNs for differential equations.
Structured prediction requires manipulating a large number of combinatorial structures, e.g., dependency trees or alignments, either as latent or output variables. Recently, the SparseMAP method has been proposed as a differentiable, sparse alternative to maximum a posteriori (MAP) and marginal inference. SparseMAP ret…
Variational Laplace improves Bayesian neural network performance without sampling.
We introduce a Bayesian approach to discovering patterns in structurally complex processes. The proposed method of Bayesian Structural Inference (BSI) relies on a set of candidate unifilar HMM (uHMM) topologies for inference of process structure from a data series. We employ a recently developed exact enumeration of to…