Scientific explanation often requires inferring maximally predictive features from a given data set. Unfortunately, the collection of minimal maximally predictive features for most stochastic processes is uncountably infinite. In such cases, one compromises and instead seeks nearly maximally predictive features. Here, …
MACE optimizes stock portfolios for maximal predictability.
problem Maximizing risk-adjusted profitability through predictable stock returns.
method Developed a machine learning algorithm (MACE) using Random Forest and Ridge Regression.
result Significant increases in predictability and profitability with minimal conditioning information.
Maximizes stock portfolio predictability using machine learning.
problem Improving stock portfolio performance through predictive modeling.
method Optimal constrained weights in the MPP constructed using Elastic Net, Random Forest, and Support Vector Regression models.
result MPP portfolios can outperform or underperform the index based on the time period.
GONs improve predictions of maximizers from noisy black-box functions.
problem Estimating maximizers of noisy black-box functions.
method Global Optimization Networks (GONs) composed of invertible and unimodal functions.
result GONs outperform convex fits, GPR, and DNNs in prediction accuracy.
SEMF predicts prediction intervals for ML models using latent variables.
problem Uncertainty quantification in ML models, especially for diverse data distributions.
method Supervised Expectation-Maximization Framework (SEMF) extending EM algorithm for latent variable modeling.
result SEMF produces narrower prediction intervals with desired coverage probability.
FavMac maximizes value while controlling cost in multi-label prediction.
problem Value-maximizing predictions with strict cost control in multi-label scenarios.
method FavMac pipeline combining any multi-label classifier with online update mechanism.
result FavMac achieves higher value with strict cost control compared to baselines.
GO-OED maximizes predictive information gain on nonlinear QoIs.
problem Maximizing information gain on nonlinear predictive quantities.
method Nested Monte Carlo estimator, Markov chain Monte Carlo, kernel density estimation, Bayesian optimization.
result GO-OED outperforms conventional OED in nonlinear settings.
Stochastic AUC maximization has garnered an increasing interest due to better fit to imbalanced data classification. However, existing works are limited to stochastic AUC maximization with a linear predictive model, which restricts its predictive power when dealing with extremely complex data. In this paper, we conside…
A model finds interpretable prototypes for MIL datasets.
problem Finding interpretable prototypes for multiple instance learning.
method Permutation invariant maximally predictive prototype generator.
result The model outperforms existing approaches in accuracy and efficiency.
The paper predicts survival functions using random survival trees and concordance maximization.
problem Predicting conditional survival functions in right-censored data.
method The approach combines regression strategies with random survival trees and maximizes concordance.
result The proposed weighted predictor outperforms the usual survival cobra in terms of concordance.
Reservoir computers and RNNs fall short of optimal prediction for stochastic PDFA.
problem Predicting stochastic processes generated by probabilistic deterministic finite-state automata.
method Generalized linear models, Reservoir computers, and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) RNNs were tested.
result Each method can fall short of maximal predictive accuracy by up to 50% after training.
New method corrects active learning for distribution shifts and outliers.
problem Conventional active learning methods fail to account for test-time distribution.
method JEPIG, a hybrid of BALD and EPIG, maximizes expected predictive information gain.
result JEPIG outperforms conventional methods in active learning with distribution shifts.
Proposes a method to infer the distributional impacts of predictive models on stakeholders.
problem The influence of predictive models on target variable distribution, leading to performative prediction.
method Modeling agents' responses as a cost-adjusted utility maximization problem and using optimal transport to align pre- and post-model distributions.
result Provides estimates for the cost associated with these responses and demonstrates the quality of these estimates.
GOIMDA selects inputs to maximize expected influence on a goal functional, reducing data acquisition needs.
problem Challenges in active data acquisition for learning and optimization tasks in deep neural networks.
method GOIMDA uses inverse curvature and goal gradient to select inputs maximizing expected influence on a specified goal functional.
result GOIMDA achieves target performance with fewer labeled samples or function evaluations compared to baselines.
Maximizing margins leads to lossless compression of training data.
problem Generalization in supervised learning.
method Information-theoretic interpretation of margin maximization.
result Margin maximization is a form of lossless maximal compression.
Kernel methods linked to feature subspaces and maximal correlation kernels.
problem Understanding kernel methods and their relationship to feature extraction.
method Established a correspondence between feature subspaces and kernels, introduced maximal correlation kernels, and demonstrated their optimality.
result Kernel SVM on maximal correlation kernel achieves minimum prediction error.
Deep Convolutional Neural Networks (DCNN) has shown excellent performance in a variety of machine learning tasks. This manuscript presents Deep Convolutional Neural Fields (DeepCNF), a combination of DCNN with Conditional Random Field (CRF), for sequence labeling with highly imbalanced label distribution. The widely-us…
Optimal market making improves liquidity in prediction markets.
problem Efficient price discovery in prediction markets.
method Stochastic control framework for optimal market making.
result Optimal market quotes improve downside protection and profit.
StockBot uses LSTM to predict stock prices, outperforming market ETFs.
problem Predicting stock prices due to non-linear trends and inter-dependencies.
method Long-short term memory (LSTM) model for sequential data.
result StockBot can outpace the market with gains up to 15 times higher than ETFs.
This paper surveys AUC maximization for big data and AI.
problem Assessing classifier performance for imbalanced data.
method Maximizing AUC score directly.
result No comprehensive survey of AUC maximization exists.
Develops a new bidding system to maximize advertiser profit.
problem Inaccurate prediction of ad lift-effect due to biased log data.
method Unbiased Lift-based Bidding System that predicts lift-effect from biased log data.
result Demonstrates superior and practical high-performing lift-based bidding strategy.
Proposes a new method to learn representations directly optimized for a task.
problem Learning representations optimized for unrelated tasks.
method Jointly learns representation and prediction function for a specific task.
result Learned representations outperform pre-trained ones and are more sample-efficient.
The paper explores maximal perturbations to hide certain attributes in data while keeping the model's performance intact.
problem Protecting sensitive attributes from both model and human detection.
method Adversarial perturbations applied to raw data to conditionally damage model's classification of one attribute while preserving the rest.
result Maximal perturbations can hide certain attributes from both model and human detection, impacting model performance but not human perception.
Extends conformal prediction to contrastive learning for better coverage of positive samples.
problem Lack of principled guarantees on coverage in contrastive learning.
method Introduces minimum-volume covering sets with learnable constraints.
result Improves inclusion-exclusion trade-offs in positive and negative samples.
The paper assesses text classification robustness through maximal safe radius computation.
problem Vulnerability of neural network models to small input modifications.
method Maximal safe radius computation, Monte Carlo Tree Search, syntactic filtering, linear bounding techniques.
result Approximation methods for computing upper and lower bounds of maximal safe radius.
The inaccuracy of neural network models on inputs that do not stem from the training data distribution is both problematic and at times unrecognized. Model uncertainty estimation can address this issue, where uncertainty estimates are often based on the variation in predictions produced by a diverse ensemble of models …
Convex optimization models predict outputs from inputs via optimization problems.
problem Predicting outputs from inputs using convex optimization models.
method Proposed a heuristic for learning parameters of convex optimization models from datasets.
result Demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed method on three model classes.
Neural networks approximate random utility models for choice prediction.
problem Approximating random utility models with neural networks.
method RUMnets, a neural network-based model inspired by RUM framework.
result RUMnets can approximate any RUM model arbitrarily closely and vice versa.
Proposes a method to optimize neural network initialization using marginal likelihood maximization.
problem Optimizing hyperparameters for neural network initialization.
method Leverages the connection between neural networks and Gaussian processes to infer optimal hyperparameters.
result Marginal likelihood maximization provides near-optimal prediction performance on MNIST classification tasks.
This work uses a scalable approach to identify partially observed nonlinear systems.
problem Offline identification of partially observed nonlinear systems.
method Certainty-equivalent expectation-maximization (CEEM) as block coordinate-ascent.
result The CEEM approach can identify high-dimensional systems reliably and efficiently.
Learning discrete representations of data is a central machine learning task because of the compactness of the representations and ease of interpretation. The task includes clustering and hash learning as special cases. Deep neural networks are promising to be used because they can model the non-linearity of data and s…
A new method combines Gaussian graphical models for better distributed Gaussian process predictions.
problem Poor results from traditional DGP due to violated conditional independence assumption.
method Proposes using Gaussian graphical models to aggregate local predictions from subsets of data.
result Our method outperforms other state-of-the-art DGP approaches on both synthetic and real datasets.
New algorithms optimize decision rules in strategic scenarios, minimizing prediction risk and incentivizing better outcomes.
problem Strategic agents manipulate features to improve outcomes, complicating decision-making models.
method Efficient algorithms for learning decision rules that minimize prediction risk, incentivize better outcomes, and estimate true model coefficients.
result Optimal decision rules can be learned through testing and observing agent responses, circumventing hardness results.
Network-based models predict user preferences for items like movies and research articles.
problem Filtering and delivering personalized advice for users with many available products.
method Network models based on group memberships, using Monte Carlo sampling and Expectation-Maximization methods.
result Network models outperform leading approaches for recommendation.
Optimal allocation between explainable and black box models for high performance and explainability.
problem Balancing explainability and performance in model ensembles.
method Optimal allocation of observations between explainable and black box models to maximize ensemble performance and explainability.
result Learned allocations maintain high ensemble performance and explainability, sometimes outperforming individual models.
Estimate relaxation times in nonextensive systems using gradient flow for Tsallis entropy maximization.
problem Estimating relaxation times in financial market dynamics.
method Developing a method using EGF for maximizing Tsallis entropy.
result Longer relaxation times for nonextensive systems compared to Shannon entropy.
Paper improves power of conditional randomization tests.
problem Improving power of conditional randomization tests.
method Introducing a new cost function to maximize test statistic power.
result Consistently increases the number of correct discoveries.
Proposes PredVAR model for reduced-dimensional dynamics from noisy data.
problem Extracting low-dimensional dynamics from high-dimensional noisy data.
method Probabilistic reduced-dimensional vector autoregressive model with oblique projection.
result Iterative algorithm yields dynamic latent variables with rank-ordered predictability.
We develop parallel predictive entropy search (PPES), a novel algorithm for Bayesian optimization of expensive black-box objective functions. At each iteration, PPES aims to select a batch of points which will maximize the information gain about the global maximizer of the objective. Well known strategies exist for sug…
Empirical evidence suggests that even the most competitive markets are not strictly efficient. Price histories can be used to predict near future returns with a probability better than random chance. Many markets can be considered as {\it favorable games}, in the sense that there is a small probabilistic edge that smar…
Develops methods for making deep learning models more interpretable by answering counterfactual questions.
problem Lack of interpretability in deep learning models, especially in high-stakes applications.
method Introduces causal interpretability, a framework for building models that are causally interpretable by design.
result Identifies a fundamental tradeoff between causal interpretability and predictive accuracy.
Improved spatial prediction for massive datasets using SME model.
problem Efficiently estimating parameters in massive spatial datasets.
method Spatial Mixed Effects (SME) model with AECM algorithm for flexibility.
result Improved estimation without sacrificing prediction accuracy.
Support vector regression (SVR) is one of the most popular machine learning algorithms aiming to generate the optimal regression curve through maximizing the minimal margin of selected training samples, i.e., support vectors. Recent researchers reveal that maximizing the margin distribution of whole training dataset ra…
Study optimizes GCS operations with deep learning and reinforcement learning.
problem Maximizing storage performance in GCS with resource-efficient simulations.
method Introduces MLD model for fast flow prediction and well control optimization, combining deep learning and reinforcement learning.
result Achieves highest NPV while reducing computational resources by over 60%.
Information bottleneck (IB) is a method for extracting information from one random variable X that is relevant for predicting another random variable Y. To do so, IB identifies an intermediate "bottleneck" variable T that has low mutual information I(X;T) and high mutual information I(Y;T). The "IB curve" cha…
Proposes a framework to reconcile policy learning and profit maximization in CATE estimation.
problem Aligning CATE estimation with profit maximization for optimal customer treatment decisions.
method Optimizes a novel objective function that concentrates learning capacity near the decision boundary, ensuring consistency with the original profit function.
result Consistent CATE estimates can be recovered from existing profit-maximization pipelines, allowing firms to navigate the trade-off between accuracy and profit.
New method selects features via tensor decomposition and submodular optimization.
problem Feature selection for high-dimensional data.
method Low-rank tensor model, submodular optimization, greedy algorithm.
result Proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art feature selection.
Optimization algorithm CoCo improves causal inference from diverse data.
problem Identifying true causal relationships from data with spurious associations.
method CoCo optimizes for causal inference using environments with invariant causal relationships.
result CoCo provides more accurate causal estimates and predictions.