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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,694 papers · 148 categories

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75149224298 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for mathematical statistics

Paper discusses the Fisher metric and differentiability in statistical models.

problem Understanding the relationship between Fisher metric and differentiability in statistical models.
method Comparison of different concepts and models in Information Geometry, mathematical statistics, and measure theory.
result Discussion of various models and their differentiability properties.

The paper derives Einstein tensors for a family of α-connections on quasi-statistical manifolds.

problem Deriving Einstein tensors for a new family of connections.
method Developed mathematical foundations of statistical and quasi-statistical manifolds, including dual and equiaffine connections.
result Explicit expressions for curvatures and Einstein tensors of the α-connections.

Study evaluates different mathematical models for three case studies using statistical fitting.

problem Estimating outcomes in population dynamics, temperature variations, and market equilibrium.
method Applied various statistical equations (e.g., fractional exponential, sinusoidal) to three case studies.
result Optimal models differ by case study (fractional exponential for population dynamics, sinusoidal for temperature and market equilibrium).

I review few conceptual steps in analytic description of topological interactions, which constitute the basis of a new interdisciplinary branch in mathematical physics, "Statistical Topology", emerged at the edge of topology and statistical physics of fluctuating non-phantom rope-like objects. This new branch is called…

2016-08-23abs ↗pdf ↗

We prove the eventological HH-theorem that complements the Boltzmann H-theorem from statistical mechanics and serves as a mathematical excuse (mathematically no less convincing than the Boltzmann H-theorem for the second law of thermodynamics) for what can be called "the second law of eventology", which justifies the …

2018-09-19abs ↗pdf ↗

Study quantifies how LLMs capture higher-order statistical structure using cumulant expansion.

problem Understanding how LLMs internalize statistical structure during next-token prediction.
method Cumulant-expansion framework treating softmax entropy as perturbation around center distribution.
result Cumulants reveal distinct signatures for mathematical vs. general text prompts, quantifying feature-learning dynamics.

The modern data analyst must cope with data encoded in various forms, vectors, matrices, strings, graphs, or more. Consequently, statistical and machine learning models tailored to different data encodings are important. We focus on data encoded as normalized vectors, so that their "direction" is more important than th…

2016-05-01abs ↗pdf ↗

Lecture notes on linear neural networks for deep learning optimization and generalization.

problem Understanding optimization and generalization in deep learning models.
method Mathematical tools and dynamical systems theory.
result Potential of mathematical tools to enhance understanding of deep learning.

Abstract mathematical formulas for statistical structures and curvatures.

problem Developing formulas for statistical structures and curvatures.
method Proving new formulas and theorems for statistical structures and curvatures.
result Generalized formulas for statistical structures and curvatures.

Explains how geometry and statistics intertwine, focusing on information geometry.

problem Understanding the interplay between geometry and statistics.
method Introduces differential topology, geometry, probability, and (pre-)Frobenius manifolds.
result Discovers connections between geometry and statistics, particularly in information geometry.

Perceptrons have been known for a long time as a promising tool within the neural networks theory. The analytical treatment for a special class of perceptrons started in seminal work of Gardner \cite{Gar88}. Techniques initially employed to characterize perceptrons relied on a statistical mechanics approach. Many of su…

2013-06-17abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper explores the Jones polynomial and its impact on knot theory and related fields.

problem Exploring the Jones polynomial and its applications in knot theory.
method Recalling the Jones polynomial and its development, discussing its connections to various mathematical and physical contexts.
result The Jones polynomial has wide-ranging applications and connections in mathematics and physics.

New method uses model comparison signals to improve LLM evaluation accuracy.

problem Limited benchmark sizes and model stochasticity in evaluating LLMs' mathematical reasoning.
method Combines standard labeled outcomes with model comparison signals to design a statistically efficient evaluation framework.
result Semiparametric estimator achieves the semiparametric efficiency bound and substantially improves ranking accuracy.

Paper reviews algebraic research in machine learning theory.

problem Understanding phase transitions in machine learning models.
method Algebraic approaches in statistical mechanics.
result Algebraic methods are essential for analyzing machine learning models with singularities.

Experimental life sciences like biology or chemistry have seen in the recent decades an explosion of the data available from experiments. Laboratory instruments become more and more complex and report hundreds or thousands measurements for a single experiment and therefore the statistical methods face challenging tasks…

2014-03-12abs ↗pdf ↗

We develop a statistical framework to benchmark and select large language models based on their risks.

problem Benchmarking and selecting large language models based on their associated risks.
method A distributional framework using first and second order stochastic dominance, linked to mean-risk models in finance.
result Formalizes a risk-aware approach for model selection, balancing risk and utility.

Novel Orlicz regrets consistently bound environmental variable statistics.

problem Consistent evaluation of stochastic environmental variables like water quality indices.
method Proposed novel Orlicz regrets for upper and lower bounds.
result Explicit linkage between Orlicz regrets and divergence risk measures.

Paper analyzes shapes of brain arterial networks using statistical methods.

problem Quantifying and comparing shapes of brain arterial networks.
method Mathematical representation of BAN shapes as elastic shape graphs, development of Riemannian metrics and geometrical tools.
result Age has a clear, quantifiable effect on BAN shapes, with increased variance in shapes as age increases.

The paper explains how language models acquire complex skills through scaling laws and statistical analysis.

problem Understanding how language models acquire new skills as their size and training data increase.
method Statistical framework and mathematical analysis of scaling laws.
result Language models can learn complex skills efficiently due to a strong inductive bias.

We describe in this note a new invariant of rooted trees. We argue that the invariant is interesting on it own, and that it has connections to knot theory and homological algebra. However, the real reason that we propose this invariant to readers is that we deal here with an elementary, interesting, new mathematics, an…

2015-12-09abs ↗pdf ↗

This paper develops a general framework for analyzing asymptotics of VV-statistics. Previous literature on limiting distribution mainly focuses on the cases when nn \to \infty with fixed kernel size kk. Under some regularity conditions, we demonstrate asymptotic normality when kk grows with nn by utilizing existin…

2019-12-02abs ↗pdf ↗

Big data, data science, deep learning, artificial intelligence are the key words of intense hype related with a job market in full evolution, that impose to adapt the contents of our university professional trainings. Which artificial intelligence is mostly concerned by the job offers? Which methodologies and technolog…

2018-09-28abs ↗pdf ↗

Researchers study the normalizing constant of a continuous categorical distribution.

problem Understanding the normalizing constant of the continuous categorical distribution.
method Characterize numerical behavior and present theoretical and methodological advances.
result The normalizing constant can be written in closed form using elementary functions.

In this paper I give a brief introduction to a family of simple but non-trivial models designed to increase our understanding of collective processes in markets, the so-called Minority Games, and their non-equilibrium statistical mathematical analysis. Since the most commonly studied members of this family define disor…

2002-05-13abs ↗pdf ↗

The need for new methods to deal with big data is a common theme in most scientific fields, although its definition tends to vary with the context. Statistical ideas are an essential part of this, and as a partial response, a thematic program on statistical inference, learning, and models in big data was held in 2015 i…

2015-09-09abs ↗pdf ↗

Approximate Bayesian inference on the basis of summary statistics is well-suited to complex problems for which the likelihood is either mathematically or computationally intractable. However the methods that use rejection suffer from the curse of dimensionality when the number of summary statistics is increased. Here w…

2008-09-24abs ↗pdf ↗

Based on criteria of mathematical simplicity and consistency with empirical market data, a stochastic volatility model is constructed, the volatility process being driven by fractional noise. Price return statistics and asymptotic behavior are derived from the model and compared with data. Deviations from Black-Scholes…

2006-02-01abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper reviews and improves concentration inequalities for statistical inference.

problem Analyzing statistical inference in various settings with high-dimensional data.
method Review and improvement of concentration inequalities for different types of random variables and statistical measures.
result Fresh new results and improved bounds with sharper constants.

We have measured the dissimilarities among several printed characters of a single page in the Gutenberg 42-line bible and we prove statistically the existence of several different matrices from which the metal types where constructed. This is in contrast with the prevailing theory, which states that only one matrix per…

2010-01-31abs ↗pdf ↗

Reasoning models generate differently based on problem difficulty, not just length.

problem Understanding how reasoning models handle different problem difficulties.
method Examined hidden-state trajectories across competitive programming, mathematics, and Boolean satisfiability.
result Corrected trajectory geometry shows difficulty-dependent differences in reasoning models, with stronger effects in the code domain.

We propose a paradigm to deep-learn the ever-expanding databases which have emerged in mathematical physics and particle phenomenology, as diverse as the statistics of string vacua or combinatorial and algebraic geometry. As concrete examples, we establish multi-layer neural networks as both classifiers and predictors …

2017-06-08abs ↗pdf ↗

New work shows FP potential monotonicity equals low-degree polynomial estimators limits.

problem Establishing a precise mathematical relationship between statistical physics and polynomial estimators limits.
method Analyzing Gaussian additive models (GAMs) to show FP potential monotonicity equals low-degree polynomial estimators limits.
result For a broad family of Gaussian additive models, the power of low-degree polynomials is equivalent to the monotonicity of the annealed FP potential.