Without probability theory, we define classes of supermartingales, martingales, and semimartingales in idealized financial markets with continuous price paths. This allows us to establish probability-free versions of a number of standard results in martingale theory, including the Dubins-Schwarz theorem, the Girsanov t…
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48 results for “martingale theory”
We present a set of high-probability inequalities that control the concentration of weighted averages of multiple (possibly uncountably many) simultaneously evolving and interdependent martingales. Our results extend the PAC-Bayesian analysis in learning theory from the i.i.d. setting to martingales opening the way for…
A concept of martingale-fair index of return, consistent with Arbitrage Free Pricing Theory, is introduced. An explicit formula for the average rate of return of a group of investment/pension funds in a discrete time stochastic model is derived and several properties of this index are shown. In particular, it is proven…
Paper defines saddle points in asymmetric Dynkin games using martingale theory.
problem Tackles saddle point conditions in asymmetric Dynkin games with partial information.
method Uses martingale theory to identify super and submartingales related to equilibrium payoffs.
result Characterizes saddle point strategies in terms of equilibrium payoffs' dynamics and Doob-Meyer decompositions.
In the framework of bilateral Gamma stock models we seek for adequate option pricing measures, which have an economic interpretation and allow numerical calculations of option prices. Our investigations encompass Esscher transforms, minimal entropy martingale measures, -optimal martingale measures, bilateral Esscher…
We prove that, for locally bounded processes, absence of arbitrage opportunities of the first kind is equivalent to the existence of a dominating local martingale measure. This is related to and motivated by results from the theory of filtration enlargements.
The information dynamics in finance and insurance applications is usually modeled by a filtration. This paper looks at situations where information restrictions apply such that the information dynamics may become non-monotone. A fundamental tool for calculating and managing risks in finance and insurance are martingale…
New method finds closest martingale to Brownian motion.
problem Finding optimal martingale interpolating marginals.
method Martingale Sinkhorn algorithm, iterative scheme.
result Algorithm yields Bass potential in arbitrary dimension.
New approach shows continuity and compactness of martingale measures.
problem Stability of martingale optimal transport problem.
method Set-valued map theory and lower-upper hemicontinuity.
result Lower and upper hemicontinuity of the set of martingale measures.
A Common Market Measure for Libor and Pricing Caps, Floors and Swaps in a Field Theory of Forward Interest Ratesphysics.soc-ph
The main result of this paper that a martingale evolution can be chosen for Libor such that all the Libor interest rates have a common market measure; the drift is fixed such that each Libor has the martingale property. Libor is described using a field theory model, and a common measure is seen to be emerge naturally f…
Geometric Bass martingales linked to Brownian motion and geometric Brownian motion.
problem Modeling continuous martingales with prescribed initial and terminal distributions.
method Developed geometric Bass martingales and established their properties.
result Explicit bijection and representation of geometric Bass martingales.
Quantum probability theory constructs Martingales for non-Brownian financial models.
problem Constructing Martingales for financial models using fractional Brownian motion.
method Quantum probability theory and Wick product.
result Quantum probability framework allows for Martingale construction without Brownian integrals.
We introduce a new class of processes for the evaluation of multivariate equity derivatives. The proposed setting is well suited for the application of the standard copula function theory to processes, rather than variables, and easily enables to enforce the martingale pricing requirement. The martingale condition is i…
We solve the problem of pricing and optimal exercise of American call-type options in markets which do not necessarily admit an equivalent local martingale measure. This resolves an open question proposed by Fernholz and Karatzas [Stochastic Portfolio Theory: A Survey, Handbook of Numerical Analysis, 15:89-168, 2009].
Develops a new duality between entropy martingale optimal transport and nonlinear pricing-hedging.
problem Entropy Martingale Optimal Transport problem and its associated optimization problem.
method Combines Entropy Optimal Transport and Martingale Optimal Transport theories, with novel penalization terms and constraints.
result Establishes a nonlinear robust pricing-hedging duality, covering various known robust results.
For several decades, the no-arbitrage (NA) condition and the martingale measures have played a major role in the financial asset's pricing theory. We propose a new approach for estimating the super-replication cost based on convex duality instead of martingale measures duality: Our prices will be expressed using Fenche…
Misspecified Recoveryq-fin.MF
Asset prices contain information about the probability distribution of future states and the stochastic discounting of those states as used by investors. To better understand the challenge in distinguishing investors' beliefs from risk-adjusted discounting, we use Perron-Frobenius Theory to isolate a positive martingal…
Entropy-minimal measure calculated for a stochastic volatility model.
problem Calculating the entropy-minimal equivalent martingale measure in a stochastic volatility model.
method Revised related theory, calculated entropy-minimal measure.
result Entropy-minimal measure for the exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model.
New analysis shows LLMs don't follow Bayesian inference in ICL.
problem Does in-context learning in LLMs follow Bayesian inference?
method Analyzes ICL through the martingale property, a requirement for Bayesian inference.
result Violations of the martingale property show LLMs don't follow Bayesian inference.
Non-stochastic portfolio theoryq-fin.PM
This paper studies a non-stochastic version of Fernholz's stochastic portfolio theory for a simple model of stock markets with continuous price paths. It establishes non-stochastic versions of the most basic results of stochastic portfolio theory and discusses connections with Stroock-Varadhan martingales.
Using a bondholder who seeks to determine when to sell his bond as our motivating example, we revisit one of Larry Shepp's classical theorems on optimal stopping. We offer a novel proof of Theorem 1 from from \cite{Shepp}. Our approach is that of guessing the optimal control function and proving its optimality with mar…
Novel bounds improve TD learning consistency in RL.
problem Analyzing Temporal Difference learning's performance.
method High-dimensional concentration inequalities and Berry-Esseen bounds for Markov chain induced martingales.
result Sharp high-probability consistency guarantee for TD learning, matching asymptotic variance up to logarithmic factors.
We analyze the martingale selection problem of Rokhlin (2006) in a pointwise (robust) setting. We derive conditions for solvability of this problem and show how it is related to the classical no-arbitrage deliberations. We obtain versions of the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing in examples spanning frictionless mar…
The problem of completeness of the forward rate based bond market model driven by a Lévy process under the physical measure is examined. The incompleteness of market in the case when the Lévy measure has a density function is shown. The required elements of the theory of stochastic integration over the compensated jump…
The paper develops a method for self-normalized inference in adaptive experiments.
problem Adaptive experiments require a fixed horizon for ATE estimation, but propensities can change.
method The method uses self-normalized martingale limit theory to estimate ATE.
result The Studentized statistic is asymptotically N(0,1) at the prespecified horizon.
Study derives new equation for reserves in non-monotone information scenarios.
problem Modeling reserves in situations where information is not always increasing.
method Infinitesimal approach to derive generalized stochastic Thiele equation.
result New equation allows for information discarding and solves open problems.
Paper develops MMOT framework for financial applications with neural acceleration.
problem Financial optimization and calibration under multi-period martingale constraints.
method Theoretical analysis, incremental updates, adaptive sparse grids, hybrid neural-projection solver.
result Neural solver achieves 1597x speedup for real-time applications.
This work builds a hedging mechanism for experimental risk.
problem Risk of financial and statistical bankruptcy in experimentation.
method Game-theoretic statistics framework, capitalization of test martingale wealth process, Markowitz portfolio theory, hedging instrument.
result Investigator can hedge against the null hypothesis and avoid ruin.
We win EVA2025 by estimating extreme precipitation events using Peaks Over Thresholds and martingale testing.
problem Estimating the probability of extreme precipitation events with limited data.
method Modeling Peaks Over Thresholds with an exponential distribution and using martingale testing for evaluation.
result Our method outperforms other approaches in estimating extreme precipitation events.
We consider a market model where there are two levels of information. The public information generated by the financial assets, and a larger flow of information that contains additional knowledge about a random time. This random time can represent many economic and financial settings, such as the default time of a firm…
New algorithm selects robust martingale for optimal stopping problems.
problem Optimal stopping problems in stochastic processes.
method Randomized dual martingale minimization algorithm.
result Efficiently selects Doob martingale as close as possible.
Paper proves convergence of SA algorithm via martingale and converse Lyapunov methods.
problem Proves convergence of stochastic approximation algorithm.
method Uses martingale and converse Lyapunov methods to prove convergence.
result Provides alternate proof of convergence for SA algorithm.
Study resolves duality gap in optimal consumption with random income termination.
problem Optimal consumption in a market with randomly terminating income.
method Established rigorous duality theory using supermartingale deflators.
result Closed duality gap and characterized optimal wealth process.
We study the optimal transport between two probability measures on the real line, where the transport plans are laws of one-step martingales. A quasi-sure formulation of the dual problem is introduced and shown to yield a complete duality theory for general marginals and measurable reward (cost) functions: absence of a…
We give an elementary proof of the celebrated Bichteler-Dellacherie Theorem which states that the class of stochastic processes allowing for a useful integration theory consists precisely of those processes which can be written in the form , where is a local martingale and is a finite variation proce…
Develops a martingale expansion for stochastic volatility models.
problem Approximating marginal distributions of stochastic volatility models.
method Martingale expansion framework for continuous stochastic volatility models.
result First-order perturbation expansions for small volatility-of-volatility and fast mean-reversion models.
Paper calculates perpetual put option pricing with drawdown cap.
problem Pricing perpetual American put options with drawdown constraints.
method Derives explicit formula using Black-Scholes model and martingale theory.
result Optimal exercise occurs at first drawdown below a threshold.
Extends martingale Schrödinger bridge to arbitrary dimensions and characterizes it.
problem Tackles the martingale Schrödinger bridge in arbitrary dimensions.
method Identifies continuous-time counterpart and relates to variational problems.
result Continuous martingale Schrödinger bridge coincides with Föllmer martingale in irreducible case.
Recurrent neural networks' hidden state can be reconstructed from its past, providing a theoretical framework for stability and tracking.
problem Hidden-state stability in RNNs
method Backward coherence analysis
result Almost-sure convergence, rates under mixing, interpretable limiting representation, finite pathwise stopping times, and theoretical framework for time-uniform confidence sequences.
The paper reviews historical and modern approaches to asset pricing probability measures.
problem Constructing or selecting probability measures for asset pricing.
method Historical review of various approaches including state price theory, martingale measures, and modern data-driven methods.
result Modern asset pricing involves constructing, transforming, or selecting probability measures to represent market prices.
Study shows how market firm capitalization models converge to stochastic PDE solutions.
problem Understanding convergence of rank-based models with common noise to stochastic PDE solutions.
method Analysis of mean field limit, martingale problem, and pathwise entropy solutions.
result Empirical cumulative distribution function converges to solution of a stochastic PDE under certain conditions.
Developed a machine-checked Itô calculus for Brownian motion.
problem Formal verification of Itô calculus for Brownian motion.
method Machine-checked formalization in Lean over Mathlib.
result First machine-checked constructions of the Itô integral and Itô's formula.
In frictionless markets, utility maximization problems are typically solved either by stochastic control or by martingale methods. Beginning with the seminal paper of Davis and Norman [Math. Oper. Res. 15 (1990) 676--713], stochastic control theory has also been used to solve various problems of this type in the presen…
Existence proved for -Bass martingales with specific marginals.
problem Constructing martingales with prescribed marginals close to a reference measure.
method Geometric analysis of parametrized convex polygonal chains.
result Existence and uniqueness of -Bass martingales with finitely supported initial marginals.
Study finds optimal martingale coupling between two distributions with minimal entropy.
problem Finding the optimal martingale coupling between two distributions with minimal relative entropy.
method Solving a dual problem to find the log-density of the optimal coupling, which represents the marginal and martingale constraints.
result The log-density of the optimal coupling is given by a triplet of real functions representing the marginal and martingale constraints.
We consider the pricing problem facing a seller of a contingent claim. We assume that this seller has some general level of partial information, and that he is not allowed to sell short in certain assets. This pricing problem, which is our primal problem, is a constrained stochastic optimization problem. We derive a du…
In the paper, the martingales and super-martingales relative to a convex set of equivalent measures are systematically studied. The notion of local regular super-martingale relative to a convex set of equivalent measures is introduced and the necessary and sufficient conditions of the local regularity of it in the disc…
Note on failure of Martingale Wasserstein Inequality in higher dimensions.
problem Analyzing failure of Martingale Wasserstein Inequality in higher dimensions.
method Checking failure in dimension d≥2 and proving a stronger inequality in all dimensions.
result A stronger Maximal Martingale Wasserstein Inequality holds in all dimensions.