Marketing analytics is a diverse field, with both academic researchers and practitioners coming from a range of backgrounds including marketing, expert systems, statistics, and operations research. This paper provides an integrative review at the boundary of these areas. The aim is to give researchers in the intelligen…
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Favorit strategy helps farmers mitigate market price fluctuations.
problem Mitigating adverse impact of price fluctuation on farmers.
method Analyzes historical price data to select optimal market timing for crops.
result Developed a strategy to reduce volatility risk for Indian farmers.
We propose a heterogeneous agent market model (HAM) in continuous time. The market is populated by fundamental traders and chartists, who both use simple linear trading rules. Most of the related literature explores stability, price dynamics and profitability either within deterministic models or by simulation. Our nov…
The paper uses regression models to predict COVID-19 spread and its stock market impact.
problem Predicting and understanding the impact of COVID-19 on stock markets.
method Logistic curve model with Bayesian regression for predictive analytics.
result Different crises have different impacts on the same stocks.
Market Simulation Displaying Multifractalitycond-mat.stat-mech
We proposed a market simulation model (micro model) which displays multifractality and reproduces many important stylized facts of speculative markets. From this model we analytically extracted the MMAR model (Multifractal Model of Asset Returns) for the macroscopic limit.
Fast calibration of the LIBOR Market Model with Stochastic Volatility based on analytical gradientmath.OC
Proposes efficient calibration method for LIBOR Market Model with stochastic volatility.
problem Calibrating LIBOR Market Model with stochastic volatility.
method Derives analytical gradient of swaptions prices for DDSVLMM and uses it for gradient-based optimization.
result Analytical gradient-based calibration is highly competitive and efficient for DDSVLMM.
Study uses ML to analyze financial behavior in big data.
problem Challenges in analyzing financial big data.
method Applied machine learning to financial behavioral data.
result ML models can effectively estimate performance in financial markets.
We propose and study a simple stochastic model for the dynamics of a limit order book, in which arrivals of market order, limit orders and order cancellations are described in terms of a Markovian queueing system. Through its analytical tractability, the model allows to obtain analytical expressions for various quantit…
We study the problem of optimal trading using general alpha predictors with linear costs and temporary impact. We do this within the framework of stochastic optimization with finite horizon using both limit and market orders. Consistently with other studies, we find that the presence of linear costs induces a no-tradin…
Paper offers a simpler solution for managing complex financial options.
problem Managing a large number of financial assets with diverse dynamics.
method Developed a simple analytical approximation for market making.
result Shows significant flexibility over existing market making strategies.
New method uses topological data analysis to study stock market crashes.
problem Characterizing and predicting stock market crashes.
method Topological data analysis, persistence landscape, dynamic time series analysis.
result Demonstrates effectiveness of new method for Flash Crash characterization and prediction.
Market illiquidity, feedback effects, presence of transaction costs, risk from unprotected portfolio and other nonlinear effects in PDE based option pricing models can be described by solutions to the generalized Black-Scholes parabolic equation with a diffusion term nonlinearly depending on the option price itself. Di…
Optimal execution of portfolio transactions is the essential part of algorithmic trading. In this paper we present in simple analytical form the optimal trajectory for risk-averse trader with the assumption of exponential market recovery and short-time investment horizon.
This paper introduces TDA and TSI for better business analytics.
problem Nonlinear, multi-scale business datasets under-represented by traditional tools.
method Topological Data Analysis (TDA) and Topological Stability Index (TSI).
result TSI reveals structural variability in business data.
Symbolic regression finds simple formulas for implied volatility.
problem Discovering accurate parametric representations for implied volatility.
method Symbolic regression to find analytic formulas from market data.
result Symbolic regression identifies compact parametrizations with competitive fitting performance.
New model explains market dynamics with phase transitions and non-linear interactions.
problem Understanding complex multi-asset market dynamics with phase transitions.
method Developed a Multi-Asset Non-Equilibrium Skew (MANES) model based on Langevin dynamics and McKean-Vlasov equation.
result The model accurately predicts market returns and phase transitions in both benign and distressed markets.
Biondi et al. (2012) develop an analytical model to examine the emergent dynamic properties of share market price formation over time, capable to capture important stylized facts. These latter properties prove to be sensitive to regulatory regimes for fundamental information provision, as well as to market confidence c…
This paper enhances uplift modeling for multi-treatment marketing campaigns.
problem Optimizing marketing strategies by selecting individuals likely to respond to different treatments.
method Leveraging score ranking and calibration techniques.
result Improves overall performance of marketing campaigns.
Physics-Informed Singular-Value Learning for Cross-Covariances Forecasting in Financial Marketsq-fin.ST
New method cleans cross-covariance matrices for better financial forecasting.
problem Asymptotically optimal cross-covariance cleaners fail in real-world, time-varying markets.
method Physics-informed neural network that learns from empirical singular values.
result Trained model outperforms analytical cleaners in out-of-sample cross-covariance prediction.
As demonstrated during the recent financial crisis, regulators require additional analytical tools to assess systemic risk in the financial sector. This paper describes one such tool; namely a novel market modeling and analysis capability. Our model builds upon two leading market models: one which emphasizes market mic…
This work analyzes impermanent loss in decentralized markets and provides a hedging strategy.
problem Impermanent loss in automated market makers (AMMs).
method Analytical derivation of a static replication formula using European options, and numerical example with real data.
result Guaranteed hedging coverage for all final prices within a predefined interval.
We solve the dynamics of large spherical Minority Games (MG) in the presence of non-negligible time dependent external contributions to the overall market bid. The latter represent the actions of market regulators, or other major natural or political events that impact on the market. In contrast to non-spherical MGs, t…
This study models Burundi's bond market yield curve using Nelson-Siegel and Svensson models.
problem Modeling the yield curve of Burundian bond market for financial analytics.
method Collected treasury securities auction reports, computed zero-coupon rates, and applied Nelson-Siegel and Svensson models.
result Nelson-Siegel model is optimal for Burundian yield curve modeling.
Paper addresses xVA models for market-implied skew and smile.
problem Capturing market-implied skew and smile in xVA calculations.
method Developed a state-dependent SDE combining Hull-White models with RAnD technique.
result Demonstrated significant effect of skew and smile on xVA calculations.
In this work we study an economic agent based model under different asymmetric information degrees. This model is quite simple and can be treated analytically since the buyers evaluate the quality of a certain good taking into account only the quality of the last good purchased plus her perceptive capacity β. As a cons…
We study the emergence of instabilities in a stylized model of a financial market, when different market actors calculate prices according to different (local) market measures. We derive typical properties for ensembles of large random markets using techniques borrowed from statistical mechanics of disordered systems. …
Derives formulae linking SABR model parameters to ATM and option prices.
problem Characterizing SABR model parameters from option prices.
method Analytic formulae linking , , and to ATM price and option prices at strikes.
result Characterization of SABR parameters from swap rate probability density function derivatives.
Static Replication of Impermanent Loss for Concentrated Liquidity Provision in Decentralised Marketsq-fin.GN
The article provides formulas to hedge impermanent loss in decentralized markets.
problem Impermanent loss in concentrated liquidity provision in decentralized markets.
method Analytical characterizations and static replication formulas using European calls or puts.
result Static replication formulas accurately hedge impermanent loss.
A cost-effective approach to label acquisition using active learning markets.
problem Improving model fitting and training for predictive analytics.
method Formalizing market clearing as an optimisation problem, integrating budget constraints and improvement thresholds, using two active learning strategies with distinct pricing mechanisms.
result Superior performance with fewer labels acquired compared to conventional methods.
Analytic treatment of a trading market modelcond-mat.stat-mech
We mathematically analyze a simple market model where trading at each point in time involves only two agents with the sum of their money being conserved and with neither parties resulting with negative money after the interaction process. The exchange involves random re-distribution among the two players of a fixed fra…
Proposes a new model to handle negative interest rates using CIR framework.
problem Negative interest rates and their impact on financial markets.
method Develops a new model based on Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) framework without shifting market rates.
result The model accurately reproduces market term structures and swaption prices.
Modeling price dynamics in AMMs with fees using geometric Brownian motion.
problem Understanding price dynamics in AMMs with transaction fees.
method Geometric Brownian motion, local times, excursion theory.
result Derivation of time-changed representation and limiting behavior of AMM prices.
Proposes a flexible framework for implied volatility surfaces with random parameters.
problem Inconsistent calibration of parametric implied volatility models when market volatility deviates from the model's regime.
method Introduces random coefficients for parametric implied volatility formulas, preserving analytic flexibility and efficiency.
result Demonstrates improved modeling of implied volatility curves, especially for short-term options and earnings announcements.
We propose a class of Markovian agent based models for the time evolution of a share price in an interactive market. The models rely on a microscopic description of a market of buyers and sellers who change their opinion about the stock value in a stochastic way. The actual price is determined in realistic way by match…
New portfolios outperform traditional methods by using factor weights.
problem Improving portfolio allocation in markets driven by factors.
method Factor-weighted Dirichlet portfolios outperform uniform Dirichlet portfolios.
result Factor-weighted portfolios outperform uniformly sampled portfolios in market returns.
Colored minority gamescond-mat.stat-mech
We study the behavior of simple models for financial markets with widely spread frequency either in the trading activity of agents or in the occurrence of basic events. The generic picture of a phase transition between information efficient and inefficient markets still persists even when agents trade on widely spread …
Option Pricing Model for Incomplete Marketcond-mat.stat-mech
The problem of determining the European-style option price in the incomplete market has been examined within the framework of stochastic optimization. An analytic method based on the discrete dynamic programming equation (Bellman equation) has been developed that gives the general formalism for determining the option p…
Minimal model reveals power laws in financial markets.
problem Understanding universal behaviors in financial markets.
method Analytical solution of a minimal model based on symmetry constraints.
result Various power-law behaviors are interconnected, similar to critical exponents.
In this paper we describe market in projective geometry language and give definition of a matrix of market rate, which is related to the matrix rate of return and the matrix of judgements in the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). We use these observations to extend the AHP model to projective geometry formalism and gene…
Synchronization in a market model with time delaysphysics.soc-ph
Study on synchronization in financial markets with time delays.
problem Understanding market dynamics and synchronization in financial systems with time delays.
method Examined a system of coupled non-linear delay-differential equations, linearized for small delays, and analyzed collective dynamics using bifurcation diagrams and numerical solutions.
result Demonstrated that limit cycles can be maintained in coupled N-asset models with appropriate parameterization, leading to market synchronization.
As energy markets begin clearing at sub-hourly rates, their interaction with load control systems becomes a potentially important consideration. A simple model for the control of thermal systems using market-based power distribution strategies is proposed, with particular attention to the behavior and dynamics of elect…
Stop-loss and Leverage in optimal Statistical Arbitrage with an application to Energy marketq-fin.PM
In this paper we develop a statistical arbitrage trading strategy with two key elements in hi-frequency trading: stop-loss and leverage. We consider, as in Bertram (2009), a mean-reverting process for the security price with proportional transaction costs; we show how to introduce stop-loss and leverage in an optimal t…
Spectral densities of Wishart-Levy free stable random matrices: Analytical results and Monte Carlo validationcond-mat.stat-mech
Random matrix theory is used to assess the significance of weak correlations and is well established for Gaussian statistics. However, many complex systems, with stock markets as a prominent example, exhibit statistics with power-law tails, that can be modelled with Levy stable distributions. We review comprehensively …
Develops asset pricing models with mean field game theory for heterogeneous agents.
problem Tackles equilibrium asset pricing in incomplete markets with heterogeneous agents.
method Uses mean field game theory and mean field backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs).
result Derives equilibrium risk premium and shows market clearing in the large population limit.
We show that coherent risk measures are ineffective in curbing the behaviour of investors with limited liability or excessive tail-risk seeking behaviour if the market admits statistical arbitrage opportunities which we term -arbitrage for a risk measure . We show how to determine analytically whether such -ar…
Financial rogue wavesq-fin.PR
The financial rogue waves are reported analytically in the nonlinear option pricing model due to Ivancevic, which is nonlinear wave alternative of the Black-Scholes model. These solutions may be used to describe the possible physical mechanisms for rogue wave phenomenon in financial markets and related fields.
The stability of the financial system is associated with systemic risk factors such as the concurrent default of numerous small obligors. Hence it is of utmost importance to study the mutual dependence of losses for different creditors in the case of large, overlapping credit portfolios. We analytically calculate the m…
We consider the Black--Scholes model of financial market modified to capture the stochastic nature of volatility observed at real financial markets. For volatility driven by the Ornstein--Uhlenbeck process, we establish the existence of equivalent martingale measure in the market model. The option is priced with respec…