Study finds ESG investments more resilient than traditional equity indices during market turmoil.
problem Resilience of ESG investments during financial instability.
method Daily returns analysis using MGND and EGARCH-in-mean models.
result ESG investments show higher resilience compared to traditional equity indices during crises.
The study highlights the importance of Wrong-Way Risk in FVA calculations during financial market turmoil.
problem The relevance of Wrong-Way Risk in Funding Valuation Adjustments (FVA) during financial market uncertainty.
method The study examines the impact of various modelling choices, including default times and stochastic/deterministic funding spreads, on FVA calculations.
result WWR effects are non-negligible in FVA modelling from a risk-management perspective.
We study the frictions in the patterns of trades in the Euro money market. We characterize the structure of lending relations during the period of recent financial turmoil. We use network-topology method on data from overnight transactions in the Electronic Market for Interbank Deposits (e-Mid) to investigate on two ma…
China's stock market is the largest emerging market all over the world. It is widely accepted that the Chinese stock market is far from efficiency and it possesses possible linear and nonlinear dependence. We study the predictability of returns in the Chinese stock market by employing the wild bootstrap automatic varia…
In this article we use the Mean-Variance Model in order to measure the current market state. In our study we take the approach of detecting the overall alignment of portfolios in the spin picture. The projection to the ground-states enables us to use physical observables in order to describe the current state of the ex…
Systemic risk in banking systems remains a crucial issue that it has not been completely understood. In our toy model, banks are exposed to two sources of risks, namely, market risk from their investments in assets external to the banking system and credit risk from their lending in the interbank market. By and large, …
The minute fluctuations of of S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 indices display Boltzmann statistics over a wide range of positive as well as negative returns, thus allowing us to define a {\em market temperature} for either sign. With increasing time the sharp Boltzmann peak broadens into a Gaussian whose volatility σ measure…
Study builds an EWS for early detection of stock market turbulence.
problem Early detection of stock market turbulence.
method SWARCH filtering probabilities, two-peak method, LSTM network.
result 96.6% test-set accuracy and 2.4 days of forewarned period.
The study classifies policy announcements' impact on stock market volatility.
problem Evaluating the impact of Central Bank announcements on stock market volatility.
method Proposed a model-based classification method using Markov Switching dynamics and Multiplicative Error Model.
result Successful classification of 144 European Central Bank announcements on stock market volatility.
Paper detects social media influencers affecting financial markets.
problem Impact of social media influencers on financial markets.
method Developed an early warning system for detecting suspicious social network activity.
result Discrepancy in meme and non-meme stocks' reactions to social networks.
Stablecoin liquidity was affected by the SVB collapse, with USDC's transparency leading to market reactions.
problem Impact of stablecoin transparency on liquidity during market turmoil.
method Adapted MCI measure to Uniswap, Difference-in-Differences analysis on MCI and TVL, measured liquidity concentration.
result USDC's transparency led to swift market reactions, while USDT's opacity provided a safety net.
New systemic risk indicator measures stock market reactions globally.
problem Analyzing systemic risk in diverse financial markets.
method Implied and realized volatility approach, focusing on historical and long-term volatility.
result IVRVSRI shows varying stock market reactions and shock persistence across locations.
Online surveillance detects systemic risk in financial markets.
problem Detecting and monitoring systemic risk in financial markets.
method Online monitoring procedures for multiple series, controlling for false rejections.
result Procedures allow timely detection of financial distress.
The paper examines the Chinese market reaction to the ADR issue by comparing returns and their stochastic variances of the Chinese firms cross-listed in the U.S. stock market. First, It was implemented capital asset pricing model (CAPM) to determine expected returns A and N shares. The CAPM provided with a methodology …
Paper proposes novel hedging strategies using LSTM models for diversified investment portfolios.
problem Hedging risky asset portfolios in turbulent financial markets.
method Four diverse models (LSTM, ARIMA-GARCH, momentum, contrarian) generate price forecasts for diversified AIS.
result LSTM-based strategies outperform other models, with Bitcoin being the best diversifier for S&P 500 index.
MPM uses machine learning to switch between two portfolio strategies for better risk management.
problem Adaptive portfolio strategy selection for improved risk management.
method XGBoost learns to switch between HRP and NRP strategies.
result MPM outperforms both HRP and NRP in risk-reward profile and interpretability.
The substantial turmoil created by both 2000 dot-com crash and 2008 subprime crisis has fueled the belief that the two classical paradigms of economics, which are the invisible hand and the rational agent, are not appropriate to describe market dynamics and should be abandoned at the benefit of alternative new theoreti…
Study analyzes European energy markets' reactions to 2022 events using Bayesian methods.
problem Detecting structural breakpoints in energy and financial markets during turbulent times.
method Combines Hurst exponent for market efficiency, BEAST for abrupt changes, and seasonal/trend analysis.
result Markets exhibit varied reactions to critical events, affecting their trends and breakpoints.
Study compares information flow between Chinese and US stock sectors.
problem Analyzing how information flows between sectors in Chinese and US stock markets.
method Daily sector indices, transfer entropy of daily returns, comparing 2000-2017.
result Most active sectors in information exchange differ between China and US, reflecting market dynamics.
Proving the existence of speculative financial bubbles even a posteriori has proven exceedingly difficult so anticipating a speculative bubble ex ante would at first seem an impossible task. Still as illustrated by the recent turmoil in financial markets initiated by the so called subprime crisis there is clearly an ur…
New method detects and clusters market regimes in multidimensional data.
problem Detecting and clustering market regimes in complex data structures.
method Non-parametric online market regime detection and clustering using path-wise two-sample tests and maximum mean discrepancy.
result Successfully detected and clustered market regimes in various data structures.
MASA framework uses RL to balance portfolio returns and risks.
problem Managing portfolio risk in turbulent financial markets.
method Multi-agent reinforcement learning with a market observer.
result MASA framework outperforms RL approaches in balancing returns and risks.
This study analyzes information flow networks in Chinese stock sectors using transfer entropy.
problem Understanding information transmission and market dynamics in Chinese stock sectors.
method Daily closing price data of 28 sectors from 2000 to 2017, transfer entropy, maximum spanning arborescence (MSA).
result The composite sector is an information source, and the non-bank financial sector is an information sink.
During times of extreme market turmoil, it is acknowledged that there is a tendency towards "flight to safety". A strong (weak) safe haven is defined as an asset that has a significant positive (negative) return in periods where another asset is in distress, while hedge has to be negatively correlated (uncorrelated) on…
Paper introduces a new index to measure financial and workplace resilience of firms.
problem Corporate resilience and its types in turbulent markets.
method Quantitative analysis of earnings expectations and implied discount rates.
result Evidence of workplace resilience amplification by financial status in the COVID-19 era.
This study examines the evolving causal structure of equity risk factors.
problem Redundancy and risk contagion in multi-factor strategies during financial crises.
method Causal structure learning methods applied to US equity market data over 29 years.
result Statistically significant sparsifying trend of causal structure during normal times, but densification during financial stress.
The thesis models financial returns using mixtures of generalized normal distributions.
problem Estimation issues in financial return analysis.
method Mixtures of generalized normal distributions (MGND), ECM/GEM algorithms, constrained mixture models (CMGND), GND-HMMs.
result Enhanced accuracy and interpretability in financial return modeling.
This study conducts a comprehensive analysis of time series segmentation on the Japanese stock prices listed on the first section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange during the period from 4 January 2000 to 30 January 2012. A recursive segmentation procedure is used under the assumption of a Gaussian mixture. The daily number …
The study improves gold's role as a hedge and safe haven using new correlation measures.
problem Investing in gold for medium and extreme market movements.
method Developed a new correlation measure based on fractal approach.
result Gold is a better hedge than safe haven for extreme market movements.
Enhances systemic risk analysis by incorporating debt valuation factors.
problem Systemic risk in financial networks due to bank failures.
method Incorporates debt valuation factors into existing risk analysis frameworks.
result Additional debt valuation factors substantially influence risk assessment outcomes.
We examine volume computation of general-dimensional polytopes and more general convex bodies, defined as the intersection of a simplex by a family of parallel hyperplanes, and another family of parallel hyperplanes or a family of concentric ellipsoids. Such convex bodies appear in modeling and predicting financial cri…
The study finds that low frequency macroeconomic variables are more important for short-term electricity price forecasting.
problem Improving short-term forecasting of daily electricity prices using macroeconomic variables.
method Developed a Bayesian reverse unrestricted MIDAS model to account for frequency mismatch.
result Inclusion of macroeconomic low frequency variables improves short-term forecasts more than using only surveys or industrial production data.
Study optimizes market making in Chinese stock market with stochastic control and scenario analysis.
problem Limited research on market making in Chinese stock market.
method Optimal market making framework with exponential CARA utility function, accounting for market conditions and risks.
result Impact of volatility and stamp duty on market maker's profit and liquidity.
Open markets are a subset of equity markets with fixed top stocks, changing over time.
problem Understanding the dynamics and characteristics of open markets.
method Analyzing the similarities and differences between open markets and closed equity markets, and exploring specific topics like CAPM and portfolio construction.
result The equivalence of market viability and the existence of a numeraire portfolio holds in open markets, similar to closed markets.
Study applies market microstructure to Cuban informal currency market, finding market makers improve liquidity.
problem Understanding dynamics of informal currency markets.
method Modeling bid/ask intentions using Limit Order Book, applying Avellaneda-Stoikov model with Market Maker.
result Market Maker improves market quality and bid/ask dynamics.
Study finds varying market efficiency in prewar and wartime Japanese stock market.
problem Measuring market efficiency in prewar and wartime Japanese stock market.
method Using a new market capitalization-weighted stock price index, the study examines market efficiency over time and historical events.
result The adaptive market hypothesis is supported in the prewar and wartime Japanese stock market, with efficiency varying over time and with historical events.
Study uses Kalman-Filter to assess market efficiency in major stock markets.
problem Assessing market efficiency in major stock markets.
method Utilizes Kalman-Filter in two stages, assuming a trendline representing true market value.
result Significant portfolio returns in emerging and developed markets.
Recent innovations in Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) provide new opportunities and challenges for integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) into the energy supply system as active market players. By increasing integration of DERs, novel market platform should be designed for these new market …
We study the effect of globalization on the Korean market, one of the emerging markets. Some characteristics of the Korean market are different from those of the mature market according to the latest market data, and this is due to the influence of foreign markets or investors. We concentrate on the market network stru…
Study shows informed traders harm market makers but price discovery benefits outweigh costs.
problem Informed traders' impact on market makers' profitability.
method Agent-based model with heterogeneous learning agents, multi-agent reinforcement learning.
result Informed market order flow is harmful when aggregate informedness is low but beneficial as it increases.
We investigate the possibility of statistical evaluation of the market completeness for discrete time stock market models. It is known that the market completeness is not a robust property: small random deviations of the coefficients convert a complete market model into a incomplete one. The paper shows that market inc…
This thesis applies RL to market making in China's commodity market.
problem Leverage RL for market making in China's commodity market.
method Developed an automatic trading system using RL.
result RL is feasible for market making in China's commodity market.
Research predicts money market volume based on capital market and bank rates ratio.
problem Understanding the influence of capital market and bank rates on money market instruments.
method Correlation matrix and time series model to predict money market volume.
result Predictive model for money market instrument volume based on historical data.
The possibility of statistical evaluation of the market completeness and incompleteness is investigated for continuous time diffusion stock market models. It is known that the market completeness is not a robust property: small random deviations of the coefficients convert a complete market model into a incomplete one.…
This study examines how DMMs affect market liquidity and competition.
problem The impact of DMMs on market liquidity and competition.
method Agent-based simulations to explore the effects of varying competition levels and incentive structures among DMMs.
result Optimal competition among DMMs maximizes liquidity benefits without negatively impacting price discovery.
AI learns market manipulation through simulation, suggesting regulation.
problem Regulating AI to prevent market manipulation.
method Used a genetic algorithm in an artificial market simulation.
result AI discovered market manipulation as an optimal strategy.
Optimal market making strategy for electronic markets with persistent order flows.
problem Market making on electronic markets with persistent order flows.
method Formulated as a stochastic control problem, characterized by viscosity solutions, and implemented numerically.
result Characterization of an optimal market making strategy.
The paper finds that bear markets cause recessions and bull markets cause expansions, with bull markets having a stronger causal effect.
problem Understanding the asymmetric causal relationships between market conditions and economic cycles.
method Asymmetric causality tests using partial sums of positive and negative market components, with bootstrap simulations and leverage adjustments.
result Bear markets cause recessions and bull markets cause expansions, with bull markets having a stronger causal effect.