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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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91183274365 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for market price dynamics

New pricing algorithm learns demand curves and optimizes prices in dynamic markets.

problem Dynamic pricing in markets with incomplete demand information and shifting conditions.
method Actor-Critic Information-Directed Pricing (ACIDP) using IDS algorithms and auditing procedures.
result ACIDP outperforms UCB and TS in market environment shifts.

The study models market price movement based on investors' expectations.

problem Understanding the dynamics of investors' expectations and market price movement.
method Developed a non-linear evolutionary equation linking investors' expectations and market asset price movement.
result Model predictions co-integrated with asset time series, suggesting potential for price movement forecasting.

The paper analyzes how market prices respond to information processing and non-linear dynamics.

problem Understanding how market prices change in response to information.
method Logistic Continuous Wavelet Transformation method applied to SP 500 market data.
result Identifies patterns in market dynamics and describes them using a new theory of reflexive communication.

Paper introduces a new volatility model for natural gas markets and discusses swing option pricing.

problem Modeling price and storage dynamics in natural gas markets with path-dependent volatility.
method Developed a novel stochastic path-dependent volatility model and used deep learning for swing option pricing.
result Proposed a deep learning method for numerical approximations of swing option pricing.

Model predicts three market regimes: Good, Bad, and Ugly.

problem Understanding market dynamics and predicting different market states.
method Developed a nonlinear diffusion model of price formation with feedback from money flows and memory of past flows.
result The model predicts three distinct market regimes: Good, Bad, and Ugly.

Dynamic factor analysis reveals insights into Philippine stock market dynamics.

problem Understanding complex stock market dynamics.
method Dynamic factor model using Kalman method and maximum likelihood estimation.
result Common factors extracted from the model represent market trends and volatility.

New models optimize quotes for automated market makers considering various price dynamics and demand variability.

problem Optimizing quotes for automated market makers in volatile price environments.
method Advanced models incorporating stochastic volatility, jumps, Hawkes processes, and Markov-modulated Poisson processes.
result Optimal quotes can be computed using numerical methods tailored to each model.

Quantum theory explains price dynamics in financial markets, capturing bid-ask spread and ergodicity.

problem Nature of price formation in financial markets and bid-ask spread dynamics.
method Developed a quantum coupled-wave theory using a 2x2 price operator with eigenvalues representing bid and ask prices.
result The theory adequately models bid-ask spread and directional price movement due to quantum-chaotic interaction.

The paper extends option pricing theory for markets with informed traders.

problem Discontinuity in option pricing for markets with informed traders.
method New models for option pricing in complete markets considering informed traders' information on stock price direction and return mean.
result The discontinuity puzzle in option pricing is resolved using continuous diffusion price processes.

The use of kinetic modelling based on partial differential equations for the dynamics of stock price formation in financial markets is briefly reviewed. The importance of behavioral aspects in market booms and crashes and the role of agents' heterogeneity in emerging power laws for price distributions is emphasized and…

2010-07-09abs ↗pdf ↗

This paper explains how predictable order flow can lead to Brownian motion in financial prices.

problem Why financial prices exhibit Brownian motion despite predictable order flow.
method Generalized Lillo-Mike-Farmer model to nonlinear price-impact dynamics, mapping to Lévy-walk model.
result Price dynamics remain diffusive under the square-root law, even with persistent order flow.

Broker uses multi-task dynamic pricing to learn competitive prices in credit markets.

problem Lack of data and infrequent trading in credit markets.
method Two-Stage Multi-Task (TSMT) algorithm that leverages shared structure across securities.
result TSMT algorithm achieves a regret bound of O(TMd+Md)O(\sqrt{T M d} + M d), outperforming baselines.

Econometrics is based on the nonempiric notion of utility. Prices, dynamics, and market equilibria are supposed to be derived from utility. Utility is usually treated by economists as a price potential, other times utility rates are treated as Lagrangians. Assumptions of integrability of Lagrangians and dynamics are im…

1999-11-18abs ↗pdf ↗

Investigates price dynamics of two assets with and without bubbles, deriving conditions for equilibrium prices.

problem Understanding price dynamics and bubbles in multi-asset markets.
method Derives sufficient and necessary conditions for average equilibrium price dynamics in a two-asset model.
result Assets with positive average dividends display hump-shaped bubbles, while those with constant fundamental values show misvaluation effects.

The paper analyzes binary option markets with exogenous information and price sensitivity.

problem Analyzing binary option markets with exogenous information and price sensitivity.
method Derive and analyze a continuous model of binary option markets with exogenous information, using Filippov surfaces and general assumptions on purchasing rules.
result Price always converges when exogenous information is constant, and price sensitivity affects price lag vs. information.

The paper uncovers two key laws of market impact influenced by volume and participation rate.

problem Understanding the roles of volume and participation rate in market price response.
method Extending the no arbitrage approach to include sophisticated market participants, deriving price dynamics from order flow dynamics.
result Recovery of two square root laws governing market impact.

Model explains herding and volatility in urban housing prices.

problem Understanding non-linear price dynamics in urban housing markets.
method Agent-based model with rational households and trend-following behavior.
result Model accurately predicts price variability and herding behavior.

Model predicts bid and ask price dynamics with spread-dependent intensities.

problem Predicting bid and ask price dynamics in high-frequency stock markets.
method Extended Hawkes process with zero intensities, spread-dependent intensities, and negative excitement.
result Spread-narrowing tendency, excitations caused by previous events, impact of flash crashes, and different market participant features.

Study analyzes price change patterns across different market capitalizations using Markov chains.

problem Understanding price dynamics in limit order markets across various market capitalizations.
method Discrete-time Markov chain analysis of intraday price changes in NASDAQ100 tick data.
result Systematic patterns in price inertia and stability across market capitalizations are identified.

This note explores the consequences of nonlinear price impact functions on price dynamics within the chartist-fundamentalist framework. Price impact functions may be nonlinear with respect to trading volume. As indicated by recent empirical studies, a given transaction may cause a large (small) price change if market d…

2004-03-30abs ↗pdf ↗

We introduce a multivariate Hawkes process that accounts for the dynamics of market prices through the impact of market order arrivals at microstructural level. Our model is a point process mainly characterized by 4 kernels associated with respectively the trade arrival self-excitation, the price changes mean reversion…

2013-01-07abs ↗pdf ↗

Study examines how market dynamics affect emissions trading prices and abatement efforts.

problem Effectiveness of emissions markets depends on regulatory standards, costs, and abatement levels.
method Radner equilibrium framework that considers intertemporal decision-making and uncertainty.
result Variations in regulatory standards, costs, and abatement levels influence allowance prices and abatement efforts.

Study analyzes EU ETS carbon market dynamics, revealing inefficiencies and anomalies.

problem Inefficiencies and anomalies in EU ETS trading and pricing mechanisms.
method Empirical analysis using AR-GARCH model and weighted network analysis.
result Heterogeneous and sometimes counter-intuitive elasticities in price-volume relationships.

We propose and study a simple stochastic model for the dynamics of a limit order book, in which arrivals of market order, limit orders and order cancellations are described in terms of a Markovian queueing system. Through its analytical tractability, the model allows to obtain analytical expressions for various quantit…

2011-04-24abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper explores balancing market dynamics and interpretable forecasting models for energy prices.

problem Tackles the challenge of accurately predicting mFRR price and understanding market dynamics.
method Compares XGBoost and EBM for forecasting mFRR activation price in the balancing market.
result EBM provides comparable forecasting accuracy to XGBoost but with higher interpretability.