The thermodynamics of markets is analyzed, revealing parallels with thermodynamic laws.
problem Understanding economic systems through thermodynamic principles.
method Derivation and analysis of thermodynamic laws applied to economic systems.
result Deep analogy between thermodynamic and economic parameters established.
Market impact game analyzed with stochastic parameters using FBSDEs.
problem Analyzing Nash equilibrium in a market impact game with stochastic parameters.
method Characterizes Nash equilibrium using fully coupled FBSDEs and provides conditions for their unique solution.
result Unique Nash equilibrium found and characterized in terms of FBSDEs.
Stock market price fluctuations follow Lévy's stable distribution over long term.
problem Understanding the stability of stock market price fluctuations over different time scales.
method Estimated Lévy's stable parameters from four stock markets over long and short term.
result Stable parameters from different stock markets showed a unique value over long term, but fluctuated with correlation in short term.
In this paper we attempt to introduce an econophysics approach to evaluate some aspects of the risks in financial markets. For this purpose, the thermodynamical methods and statistical physics results about entropy and equilibrium states in the physical systems are used. Some considerations on economic value and financ…
Study improves queue length estimation from connected vehicles by filtering parameters.
problem Large errors in estimated queue lengths at low market penetration rates.
method Used Kalman and Particle filters as multilevel real-time estimators.
result Filters reduce estimation errors and improve accuracy within 15 minutes.
Paper uses Gibbs sampler with jump diffusion for European option pricing.
problem Estimating market parameters for jump diffusion models in option pricing.
method Gibbs sampler applied to jump diffusion model for estimating drift, volatility, jump intensity, and occurrence.
result Demonstrates impact of jump effects on European call option and annuity pricing.
Investigates optimal consumption and investment strategies in non-Markovian markets with unbounded parameters.
problem Optimal consumption and investment strategies in non-Markovian markets with unbounded parameters.
method Martingale optimal principle and quadratic BSDEs with exponential moment.
result Establishes optimal strategies for consumption and investment.
The paper studies how financial market participants adopt different models of expected returns.
problem Circular situation in financial markets where participants influence each other's opinions.
method Introduces a framework to organize and study multiple expectation models.
result Conditions under which different models are adopted by market participants.
Unified theory explains market impact using a simplified supply-demand parameter.
problem Understanding the market impact of metaorders and excess volatility.
method Coarse-grained approach with a single parameter ρ to model supply-demand equilibrium and market impact.
result Establishes a connection between excess volatility and order-driven markets through the square-root law.
Investment strategies in financial markets can lead to instability due to market impacts.
problem Market impacts make it impossible for investors to accurately optimize their strategies.
method Built an agent-based model with technical analysis strategy agents to investigate optimization instability.
result Investment strategies' parameters never converged but continued to change, leading to unstable market price evolution.
We consider a market with fractional Brownian motion with stochastic integrals generated by the Riemann sums. We found that this market is arbitrage free if admissible strategies that are using observations with an arbitrarily small delay. Moreover, we found that this approach eliminates the discontinuity of the stocha…
Model financial markets using information theory with a single parameter.
problem Capture the complexity of financial markets with a simple model.
method Derive an idealized model based on four information-theoretic assumptions, minimizing surprisal and divergence.
result The model uses squared radial Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes for state variables and their sums.
During the last decade Levy processes with jumps have received increasing popularity for modelling market behaviour for both derviative pricing and risk management purposes. Chan et al. (2009) introduced the use of empirical likelihood methods to estimate the parameters of various diffusion processes via their characte…
The paper examines utility maximization in markets with hidden Gaussian drift, finding restrictions on model parameters.
problem Utility maximization problems in markets with hidden Gaussian drift mean-reverting processes.
method Derives sufficient conditions for bounded maximum expected utility of terminal wealth for models with full and partial information.
result Restrictions on model parameters for bounded maximum expected utility.
Study optimal strategies under uncertain market parameters and borrowing costs.
problem Optimal portfolio-consumption strategies in uncertain markets.
method Robust utility maximization framework with explicit solutions.
result Impacts of uncertain parameters, constraints, and borrowing costs quantified.
Optimized portfolio management with dynamic market regimes using RL and OC learning.
problem Mean-Variance portfolio optimization in a regime-switching market.
method Reinforcement learning (RL) with Orthogonality Condition (OC) learning for regime-switching market dynamics.
result OC learning outperforms TD learning in simulated and real market scenarios, leading to better portfolio performance.
Method minimizes electricity procurement cost based on demand prediction errors.
problem Minimizing electricity procurement cost in spot markets.
method Formulate method to minimize procurement cost over two parameters.
result Minimizes total electricity cost with known unit prices and prediction errors.
Study Nash equilibrium in mean field portfolio games with random market parameters.
problem Modeling wealth and relative performance in competitive financial markets.
method Martingale optimality principle approach to characterize Nash equilibrium in mean field FBSDE.
result Unique Nash equilibrium found under weak interaction assumption and market parameters independence.
We analyze impermanent loss in AMMs and show G3Ms are simplest.
problem Understanding impermanent loss in automated market makers.
method Developed a general framework and analyzed Geometric Mean Market Makers (G3Ms).
result G3Ms have the simplest impermanent loss characteristics.
The study assesses how financial markets' efficiency changed during the COVID-19 crisis.
problem The impact of COVID-19 on financial market efficiency.
method Dynamic estimation method for Hurst exponent and memory parameter using alpha-stable distribution and dependence structure.
result Financial markets' efficiency varied during the COVID-19 crisis, with some indices showing less impact than others.
New MMM captures hierarchical marketing effects and sign restrictions.
problem Measuring effectiveness of marketing activities with hierarchical structure and sign constraints.
method Proposes a constrained maximum likelihood approach using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm.
result Demonstrates superior performance on real datasets compared to multi-stage methods.
Dynamics of the major USA market indices DJIA, S&P, Nasdaq, and NYSE is analyzed from the point of view of the random walking problem with two-step correlations of the market moves. The parameters characterizing the stochastic dynamics are determined empirically from the historical quotes for the daily, weekly, and mon…
Minimal model reveals power laws in financial markets.
problem Understanding universal behaviors in financial markets.
method Analytical solution of a minimal model based on symmetry constraints.
result Various power-law behaviors are interconnected, similar to critical exponents.
New model explains market dynamics with phase transitions and non-linear interactions.
problem Understanding complex multi-asset market dynamics with phase transitions.
method Developed a Multi-Asset Non-Equilibrium Skew (MANES) model based on Langevin dynamics and McKean-Vlasov equation.
result The model accurately predicts market returns and phase transitions in both benign and distressed markets.
Paper introduces Market-adaptive Ratio for better portfolio management.
problem Traditional risk-adjusted ratios fail to account for bull and bear markets.
method Integrates ρ parameter and uses reinforcement learning to adjust portfolio allocations dynamically. result Market-adaptive Ratio outperforms traditional ratios in bull and bear markets.
Simulation reveals relationships in stock market pyramid schemes.
problem Understanding pyramid scheme behavior in stock markets.
method Agent-based simulation with four investor types and parameters.
result Relationships between main fund's rate of return and trend investors' proportion.
A first-order model for a stock market assigns to each stock a return parameter and a variance parameter that depend only on the rank of the stock. A second-order model assigns these parameters based on both the rank and the name of the stock. First- and second-order models exhibit stability properties that make them a…
Adaptive tuning of portfolio selection parameters improves performance in volatile markets.
problem Improving online portfolio selection in volatile financial markets.
method Modeling parameter space with Gaussian process prior and using adaptive Bayesian optimization for automatic configuration.
result Oracle-based adaptive configuration enhances performance of online portfolio selection algorithms.
A novel SVR parameter optimization method using GSA outperforms other meta-heuristics in stock market forecasting.
problem Optimizing SVR parameters for reliable regression performance on small sample sizes.
method Golden Sine Algorithm (GSA) for parameter tuning of SVR.
result The GSA-based SVR outperforms eleven other meta-heuristics in terms of accuracy and computing time.
We analyze a negative-parameter variant of the diversity-weighted portfolio studied by Fernholz, Karatzas, and Kardaras (Finance Stoch 9(1):1-27, 2005), which invests in each company a fraction of wealth inversely proportional to the company's market weight (the ratio of its capitalization to that of the entire market)…
The article presents calculations that prove practical importance of the earlier derived theoretical relationship between the interest rate on the interbank credit market, volume of investment and the quantity of securities tradable on the stock exchange.
This work models the interconnection of company's investment managers' representations and the market attraction of its shares. The models that reflect the connection of the company's market effectiveness indices and parameters of its economic activity are created on the basis of the Mean-Variance Analysis and Regressi…
New approach for uninformed investors to optimize execution costs.
problem Optimizing execution costs for new investors with imperfect initial knowledge.
method Iterative derivation of OLS estimates of market parameters.
result Dynamic adjustment of trading strategies based on evolving market parameters.
Paper establishes MLE consistency for market microstructure models.
problem Estimating parameters in partially observed diffusion models.
method Tractable sufficient condition for MLE consistency based on stationary distribution.
result Maximum likelihood estimators are consistent for market microstructure parameters.
Estimates boundaries for acceptable bilateral gamma risk in financial markets.
problem Determining the compensation needed for risky future cash flows to be considered acceptable.
method Statistical inference from market prices and derivatives, using prospect theory.
result Upper and lower boundaries for bilateral gamma risk are estimated and tested against market data.
Extended model ensures long-term survival of traders in limited stock market participation.
problem Limited stock market participation and survival of traders over long periods.
method Extended Basak and Cuoco (1998) model with different time-preference coefficients.
result Parameter restrictions ensure long-term survival of traders.
Paper proposes method to calibrate market simulator for various scenarios.
problem Calibrate market simulator to represent different market conditions.
method Two-step method using GAN with self-attention to train discriminator and optimize simulator parameters.
result Demonstrates effectiveness of method in capturing various market scenarios.
We present an interacting-agent model of speculative activity explaining bubbles and crashes in stock markets. We describe stock markets through an infinite-range Ising model to formulate the tendency of traders getting influenced by the investment attitude of other traders. Bubbles and crashes are understood and descr…
The study identifies core and satellite segments in the cryptocurrency market.
problem Identifying similar cryptocurrencies for strategic asset allocation.
method Segmentation of the cryptocurrency market using image / pattern recognition methods.
result Core and satellite segments identified in the cryptocurrency market.
In this paper, we present a simple stock market model (the market game) which incorporates, as ab initio dynamics delayed majority dynamics, according to which agents (with heterogeneous strategies and price expectations) are rewarded if their actions at time t are the actions of the majority of agents at time t+1. We …
A learning algorithm achieves logarithmic regret in a market making model.
problem Learning the price sensitivity parameter in a market making model.
method Maximum-likelihood estimator with regularization, based on HJB equation.
result Regret upper bound of order ln^2 T in expectation.
The paper uses machine learning to predict missing yield parameters from liquid markets to illiquid corporate bonds.
problem Predicting missing yield parameters from illiquid corporate bonds.
method Applying Denoising Autoencoder (DAE) algorithm to historical data of liquid market instruments.
result DAE algorithm outperforms point-in-time inpainting algorithms in predicting unobserved yield surfaces.
We present an algorithm producing a dynamic non-self-financing hedging strategy in an incomplete market corresponding to investor-relevant risk criterion. The optimization is a two stage process that first determines admissible model parameters that correspond to the market price of the option being hedged. The second …
The Heston model optimizes portfolio management based on real market data.
problem Choosing between active and passive investment strategies.
method Calibrated Heston model to real stock market data.
result Passive strategy can outperform active strategy depending on market parameters.
We develop a trinomial tree model for pricing perpetual derivatives and European options.
problem Pricing perpetual derivatives and European options in a market with two risky assets and a perpetual derivative of one of them.
method We introduce a recombining trinomial tree model, consider a market with two risky assets and a perpetual derivative, and use a replicating portfolio to price options and generate relationships between risk-neutral and real-world parameters.
result We develop implied parameter surfaces for real-world parameters in the model using historical data.
We consider arbitrage free valuation of European options in Black-Scholes and Merton markets, where the general structure of the market is known, however the specific parameters are not known. In order to reflect this subjective uncertainty of a market participant, we follow a Bayesian approach to option pricing. Here …
This paper uses SVM to predict stock market trends from financial news.
problem Predicting stock market trends using text mining and sentiment analysis.
method Text mining, sentiment analysis, support vector machine (SVM), parameter optimization.
result SVM models show significant influence of news on stock market, with parameter G having the main effect.
We describe a bottom-up framework, based on the identification of appropriate order parameters and determination of phase diagrams, for understanding progressively refined agent-based models and simulations of financial markets. We illustrate this framework by starting with a deterministic toy model, whereby N indepe…